jacesabr_real

The Market Participant Battle: Bulls have successfully trapped aggressive bears at the $23 support level, creating a powerful spring formation after sellers exhausted themselves pushing price down from $26. With bears now caught offside after failing to break critical support despite multiple attempts, price is coiling for a reversal back toward $26-27 as trapped shorts are forced to cover their positions. Confluences: Confluence 1: Channel Support Spring with Hidden Bullish Divergence The 8-hour chart shows a textbook spring pattern where price touched the lower channel boundary at point 4 ($23.39), creating a false breakdown that trapped late sellers. The RSI and MFI both show hidden bullish divergence at this level - price made a higher low while oscillators made lower lows, confirming internal strength. The fact that price immediately rejected this level and closed back inside the channel signals bears have lost control. Additionally, both OBV and CDV maintain uptrends while breaking their own downtrend lines, showing accumulation despite the price pullback. Confluence 2: Major Pitchfork and Deviation Band Rejection Multiple technical tools converge at the $23.39 level: Andrews Pitchfork outer median line provided perfect support, VWAP 2nd deviation acted as a floor before price snapped back above the 1st deviation, and the linear regression channel shows price bouncing from its 2nd standard deviation. This triple confluence of dynamic support levels creates an extremely high-probability reversal zone. The numbered pattern (1-3 progression with 4 as the spring) confirms that when price closes above point 1, point 2 becomes validated as a major low. Web Research Findings: - Technical Analysis: TradingView analysis shows DASH technical ratings as "strong buy" today , with oscillators showing neutral and moving averages showing strong sell - Recent News/Earnings: DASH faces regulatory challenges with Bybit delisting in March 2025 , but community sentiment remains bullish despite 6.7% weekly decline - Analyst Sentiment: Multiple analysts noting support between $20-21 USD with safe entry above $21 - Data Releases & Economic Calendar: Fed decision today at September 17, 2025 with 93% chance of 25 basis point cut according to CME FedWatch - Interest Rate Impact: Lower fed funds rate makes it easier for money to flow through economy, helping boost markets with declining interest rates typically resulting in higher crypto prices Layman's Summary: Think of this trade like a rubber band that's been stretched too far - bears pushed price down hard but couldn't break the critical $23 level. Now they're trapped because they bet on further downside that isn't coming. Today's likely Fed rate cut could be the catalyst that sends trapped bears scrambling to exit, pushing price higher. The technical setup shows multiple reliable indicators all pointing to the same reversal zone, like having three different GPS systems all confirming you've reached your destination. Machine Derived Information: - Image 1: 8H chart showing numbered wave pattern with RSI/MFI divergences - Significance: Confirms spring pattern completion at point 4 with hidden bullish divergence across multiple oscillators - AGREES ✔ - Image 2: Clean 8H chart highlighting channel structure - Significance: Shows clear respect of ascending channel boundaries with point 4 touching lower support - AGREES ✔ - Image 3: Volume footprint analysis with POC levels - Significance: Reveals bullish POCs providing support and potential upside targets if price closes above horizontally stacked levels - AGREES ✔ Actionable Machine Summary: All three charts confirm the same story: bears pushed too hard into a major support confluence and are now trapped. The volume footprint shows buyers defending key POC levels, the channel structure remains intact despite the test, and momentum indicators flash reversal signals. When multiple independent analysis methods reach the same conclusion, probability shifts heavily in favor of the predicted move. Action: Enter longs at current levels with stops below $22.78. Conclusion: Trade Prediction: SUCCESS Confidence: High The convergence of trapped bears at major support, hidden bullish divergence, intact channel structure, bullish volume POCs, and potential Fed rate cut catalyst creates an exceptionally high-probability reversal setup. Risk/reward favors aggressive long entries with tight stops below the spring low.

# The Conviction Zone: FARTCOIN's Triple Rejection Pattern ## Market Structure Analysis The price action from Points 1→4 established a critical fact: sellers at the 0.975 zone are objectively stronger than buyers from Point 2. This isn't opinion - it's proven by the deeper low at Point 4. Now at Point 5, price returns to these validated sellers, creating a high-probability short opportunity. ## The Triple Rejection Phenomenon Each interaction with the 0.975 resistance zone demonstrates increasing seller aggression: First Contact: Initial resistance established Second Contact: Sharp rejection with increased volume Third Contact (Point 5): Violent reversal on first touch This escalating defense pattern reveals institutional sellers protecting their position with growing conviction. The lack of consolidation at resistance shows buyers have no interest in accumulating at these levels. ## Volume Structure Analysis The volume profile tells a compelling story: - Heavy Volume: 0.70-0.85 zone (value area) - Volume Void: Above 0.975 (rejection zone) - Interpretation: The thin volume above resistance indicates this is an "unfair" price - the market quickly rejects these levels to return to the accepted value area below. ## Divergence Confluence ### Classic Bearish Divergence - Price: Higher high at Point 5 - RSI: Lower high (46 vs previous) - MFI: Lower high confirming momentum loss ### Hidden Bearish Divergence (CVD) - Price: Lower high structure - CVD: Higher high showing distribution - OBV: Similar hidden divergence pattern - Meaning: Smart money is distributing into retail buying ## Advanced Technical Markers ### VWAP Analysis Anchoring from Point 1 shows Point 5 precisely hitting the 2nd standard deviation - a statistically significant reversal zone where price typically mean reverts. ### Andrews Pitchfork Using Points 2, 3, and 4 for construction, Point 5 touches the outer median line - a classic reversal point in pitchfork theory. ## Footprint Chart Revelations The volume footprint provides surgical precision: September 13, 5:00 AM: - Bullish candle close ABOVE bullish imbalance - BUT closes BELOW bearish imbalance - Delta: NEGATIVE despite bullish bar - Signal: Delta divergence = hidden selling September 13, 5:00 PM: - Closes below bearish imbalance - Negative delta confirms selling - No bullish warnings present Additional Footprint Observations: - Absorption visible at resistance (large volume, no progress) - Negative cumulative delta during rallies - Buy imbalances getting filled while sell imbalances hold ## Risk Management Entry: 0.8987 (current price) Stop Loss: 1.0598 (above Value Area High and volume profile resistance) Target: 0.6212 (68.59% move) Risk/Reward: 1:4.03 Position Sizing: Given memecoin volatility, use 50% of normal position size ## Market Context - Local downtrend intact (lower highs, lower lows) - Bitcoin correlation weakening (independent price action) - Memecoin sector rotating out of favor - Volume declining on rallies, expanding on selloffs ## Trade Execution Notes Confirmation Signals: - Break below 0.8900 with volume - CVD continuing lower - Failure to reclaim 0.9000 on any bounce Invalidation: - Acceptance above 0.9750 (multiple 4H closes) - CVD turning positive above resistance - Volume expansion on breakout ## The Edge This setup combines: 1. Proven market structure (objective seller strength) 2. Multiple divergences (classic and hidden) 3. Statistical extremes (VWAP 2nd deviation) 4. Footprint confirmation (delta divergences) 5. Clean risk/reward with defined stop The confluence of volume analysis, divergences, and footprint data creates a high-conviction short opportunity in an already weak market structure.

# The Volume Void Ceiling: HBAR's Liquidity Desert Signal ## The Seller Stronghold Formation (Points 1→7) This isn't a simple resistance test - it's a progressive strengthening of seller conviction . Points 4 and 6 created Points 3 and 5 respectively as proven selling zones. Each return to the general resistance area shared by Points 1, 3, and 5 has made sellers more aggressive and confident . They increasingly view these levels as prime opportunities to exit longs or enter shorts. ## The Volume Void Phenomenon Above Point 7 lies what I call a "liquidity desert" - a volume void where: • No significant trading has occurred • Price has no reason to linger • Any move up would be purely transit to reach distant value areas This void acts as a natural ceiling. Price won't explore these levels for liquidity because there is none. It would only pierce through rapidly if targeting much higher value zones - but with significant volume support below and resistance above, the path of least resistance is down. ## Second-Degree Divergence Signal At Point 7, we observe: • RSI/MFI: Both oversold • Price: Testing resistance with bearish divergence • Bar-level: Additional micro divergence This creates a second-degree bearish divergence - a divergence within a divergence, suggesting multi-timeframe exhaustion. ## Bollinger Band Breakout Warning Price is breaking the upper Bollinger Band extreme . This binary signal suggests either: • Explosive continuation with extreme volatility • Sharp reversal to the mean Given the triple-tested resistance and volume void above, reversal probability dominates. ## The Accessibility Gradient Looking at volume structure: • Above: Volume void requires significant energy to traverse • Below: Easily accessible volume without selling barriers The market follows the path of least resistance. With liquidity readily available below but scarce above, gravity favors the downside. ## Progressive Seller Confidence The pattern shows escalating seller strength: • Point 1: Initial resistance • Point 3: Confirmed resistance (after Point 4 low) • Point 5: Reinforced resistance (after Point 6 low) • Point 7: Maximum seller conviction Each test hasn't weakened resistance - it's strengthened it , the opposite of typical accumulation. ## Risk Management Framework Entry: Current levels (0.2458) Stop Loss: Above resistance cluster (Points 1/3/5) Initial Target: Point 6 support Extended Target: Volume liquidity zones below Position Advantages: • Triple-tested, strengthening resistance • Volume void ceiling above • Second-degree divergence • Clear risk definition ## The Technical Synthesis This setup combines: 1. Progressive seller strengthening (not weakening) 2. Volume void creating natural ceiling 3. Multi-layer divergences 4. Statistical extremes (Bollinger pierce) 5. Liquidity gradient favoring downside --- Bottom Line: When resistance strengthens with each test rather than weakens, when volume voids create ceilings above, and when multiple divergences align with statistical extremes, you're witnessing distribution at its most confident. The liquidity desert above ensures any upside would be violent and brief, while accessible volume below offers the path of least resistance.forgot to double click screen to show my indicators rsi , mfi and obv as refrenced in the writing, grab chart and show indicators to see those.

# The Bear Market Compass: BTC's 2-Sigma Rejection Signal ## Proven Sellers Established (Points 1→3) The market structure crystallized when Point 2 closed below Point 1 , establishing proven seller territory. This breakdown to Point 3 confirmed sellers' control over the market. Now at Point 4 , price has returned to test these proven sellers' resolve. ## The Three-Month Bear Market Context We're not looking at an isolated pattern - this is occurring within a three-month bear market : • One month of sharp downtrend • Three months including sideways/down action • Clear lower highs and lower lows pattern This context transforms Point 4 from a potential breakout to a likely bull trap - a relief rally within a broader downtrend. ## The Oversold Paradox At Point 4, we see: • Price: Lower high formation • RSI/MFI: Both oversold This creates the "oversold paradox" - indicators showing exhaustion but at resistance rather than support. When oversold conditions can't push price to new highs, it reveals fundamental weakness. ## VWAP 2nd Deviation Rejection Anchoring VWAP at Point 1 reveals the critical signal: price closed outside the 2nd standard deviation then pulled back . This sequence suggests: • Initial thrust above 2-sigma failed to hold • Statistical extreme rejection (95% probability zone) • Unless price shows immediate strength, this marks a local top The pullback from 2-sigma without continuation higher is a classic reversal signature. ## Multiple Technical Warnings Bollinger Band Test: Price testing upper band in bear market context OBV Trendline Break: Potential break indicating selling interest increasing Volume Profile: Resistance cluster at Point 2 level ## Chaos Theory Probability Edge The Chaos Theory indicator provides a 59% probability of reaching 114,767 . This isn't just a target - it's a mathematical edge that: • Confirms the VWAP reversal signal • Provides clear stop above Point 2 • Offers exceptional 1:6 risk/reward potential ## Risk Management Framework Entry: Current levels (115,865) Stop Loss: Above Point 2 resistance (117,998) Target: 108,000 (Chaos Theory zone - approximately 1:6 R:R) Probability: 59% according to Chaos Theory Position Advantages: • Three-month bear market context • VWAP 2-sigma rejection • Mathematical probability edge • Clear invalidation above proven resistance ## The Bear Market Compass In bear markets, rallies to resistance are gifts for shorts. This setup combines: 1. Structural resistance (proven sellers) 2. Statistical extremes (VWAP 2-sigma) 3. Momentum exhaustion (oversold at resistance) 4. Mathematical edge (59% Chaos probability) 5. Trend alignment (three-month downtrend) --- Key Insight: When a three-month bear market produces a rally that reaches VWAP 2-sigma resistance while oversold, then immediately pulls back, you're likely witnessing the end of a relief rally, not the start of a reversal. The 59% Chaos Theory probability with 1:6 R:R makes this an asymmetric opportunity.

1->3 : a higher high shows dominance of number 2 buyers 3->4 : return to dominant buyers what do I think will happen next? * rsi and mfi hidden bull and oversold *obv seems to be continuing uptrend showing continued buying interest * buying trade with protection of number 2 buyers is a sensable move that can be articulated

1->5 : solid uptrend with higher highs and lows , number 2 is a solid major low due to 3 surpassing 1 , number 4 is a solid minor low due to number 5 surpassing number 3 5->8 : a return to the solid major support at number 2 what do I think will happen next ? * a return to solid buyers , with an inside candle currently showing stopping power , alongside rsi and mfi and accum/dist bullish divergence , with this being an uptrend , spells out a good story for the buyside with stop loss below number 2

1: entrance of sellers, kind of one sided and seemed to be more of a profit take, rather than the start of a downtrend 2: buyers enter here and we see a controlled movement up, why this is important is because this kind of movement is sustainable, apposed to 1-2 this kind of movement can go for quite a while as control of the market is passed back and forth between participants 3, a strong selloff brings us down to the current 'boss' of the market 2: price closed higher than the downtrend given by 1 , this gives confidence that 2 has solid buying power, at least stronger than 1 sellers what do I think will happen next ? * I dont know if sellers at 3 are as strong or weaker than 1, if that is the case, then we could see buyers rejecting price going lower, as this is 'cheap' for them, and they will buy.. * we would want to see some kind of confirmation, I do like that at 4 we have an inside candle meaning a slowdown, if price comes back up a bit it could be a good high RR entry * mfi and rsi hidden divergence, helps the case a bit oversold but I dont care, its too volitile for this to mean anything, if anything this is something that would confuse the analysis * according to chaos theory , if a bar closes above a zone, there is a 73% chance it reaches the next zone above, so we can have a breakeven period and a logical tp using the theory of chaotic expansion of a system

1. downtrend , fast and mixed with areas of high volitility 2. the buyers find price to be 'cheap' here and begin the move up 3. this is an important moment, we defeat the strength of the sellers from one and mark 2 as the most powerful entity on this chart-view 4. after defeating the sellers from one, we replaced the selling orders with buying orders, sellers coming here are catipulted up to create a new high 5 4. number 4 is now a solid low with it being proven to a. be stronger than sellers who came in after the defeat of selling point 1 b. have a strong cluster of volume, resistance turned support c. we have a retest of the support and a bullish reaction * what do I think will happen * well, it looks like a case of switch and retest, with the former resistance becoming support, a stop loss below the solid minor structure 4 ( 2 is the solid major structure as 4 is part of the fractally smaller trend ) * MFI+ RSI + Accum/Dist indicator signal a divergence which is telling us to go to the downside, BUT , we also have the opposing divergence signal as well, so this nullifies the divergence signals and does not make me hesistate in the confidence of the analysis * the highs and lows still follow the principle of supply and demand or exersion and exhustion, so we can draw a horizontal line on mfi and rsi lows and see , from a significant low we also have a touch on the current price action * overall this all concludes to me that a buy trade is in order and appropriate given the current information. * we happen to have a 72% vs a 64 % , favouring the breakouts, if a candle closes, to follow through to the end of the zone , this gives us good confidence to have the target 2 zones up, with a breakeven point once price surpasses the first zone, due to the fact if it come back under, we have a 64% chance it'll come back to the genesis of our trade. you can reduce the lookback period and confirm the stats table for yourself, we only count follow throughs which are possible in real time.

1-4 : higher high and higher lows , upward structure according to dow theory 2 : entrance of sellers to test #1, very strong sellers with little to no resistance, the uniformity and similarity of these bars is suspicious and hints at external intervention, to induce people to the downside. 3: out buyers enter, with the 2-3 downtrend I could see most retailers not thinking any of this structure is meaningful, on top of that probably having a stop above 2 4: we are pushed to the upside with strength, even creating a gap, the stop orders above 2 got liquidated (ouch!) , one detail to note is that the buyers at #3 are now in control of the market, they defeated the sellers at #2 by taking out their orders and creating a new high, therefore the genesis of these buyers is considered 'solid', it is proven. 4-6 : a deceptive move as it seems to be a higher high which , woudl maybe make people think 5 is a solid low and stronger than the sellers at 4, but if you draw a horizontal line, it simply is not the case. 7 : a return to the solid structure at 3, high volitlity which is good as a confluence to the upside, because after high volitlity we normally have a nice flow establish in the opposing direction * what do I think will happen ? * the candle at #7 is an attempt to scare off entrance to where major players are entering, this is a great entry with a stop loss below #3 , likely this is where major market movers have their stop loss and they will defend this area unless I am wrong. * accumulation/distribution is giving us a hidden divergence , nothing from mfi and rsi except oversold, which I do not trust in high volitlity / strong moves. * over the past 2,500 candles , price has reached the next orange zone if it closes out on one side of the zone , you can manually verify by reducing the lookback period and counting, only realtime tradeable bars / zones are counted in stats. * in conclusion we want a buy order. * we will expect the next leg up here, so reach for a tp at the zone above 6, breaking even at the 6 high in case it's just a pullback.

preface : - I can see just as anyone else that we are angled upward , as per both LRC's here. regardless there are some points to note 1. smooth flow with a transition of power without much imbalance, favoring the buyers 2. gap down, then all the way back up to 2 3. a lack of structure to 4, apposed to the smooth flow from 1-2, could this simply be profit taking by the sellers at two, offloading their orders to anyone and everyone causing massive spikes back to 4? 4. almost 3 touches of the resistance , wary buyers as per the analysis of earning caused a dump, unless something changed? what do I think will happen ? * between 3-4 we have an unusually strong volitile one sided move, normally these are followed by a smooth trend the opposing direction, I could envision price coming back down to 3, or maybe at least 3-4 midpoint. it is taking too much libery to even hint at a turnaround , a pullback on the other hand.... possible, especially with this volitlity. * RSI , MFI and Accumulation distribution all have hidden divergence, as well as all being oversold, I dont care much about oversold, during high volitility movements the overbought and sold are pretty much useless, * over the past 2,500 bars, if price closes below a zone, we have a 67% chance it follows through to the other end , you can manually verify by reducing the lookback period. these are great odds!