fishguru73

This is an ascending wedge, (65% chance of a break to the downside statistically,) that the S&P500 has been trading in for it's entire life cycle. All historical data points to a final topping process as market makers head back for the top trend to liquidate short positions that took positions on the last plunge. The former sell-off showed no signs of big money taking full exit from the market as it was quite gradual; allowing short positions to stack at back tests of key resistance areas. Therefore, it stands to reason that the oversold daily RSI was going to allow for a powerful bounce to catch shorts off guard. The market will not sell off largely until shorts have capitulated as exchanges and banks load up for a final rally to completely remove those positions and sell new highs. when this happens, there will be no gradual dump but, instead, a red waterfall with news about hyperbolic, impending disasters coming out after the largest institutions push the sell button. Breaking that top trend on the 3 month logarithmic chart would be a first in market history and denote hyper-inflation followed by the coming crash being even more violent then anyone believes is possible. It is a good time to start scaling out of the market little by little.

Taking profit has it's merits. This is the top for BTC historically. We may see a double top rally into 2026 as we did in 2021 but, for now, the overall weekly trend will be bearish even if we put a shoulder on the rally.

I think anyone with a couple of brain cells can agree that anything that is a natural function of buying and selling should have no linear correlation. But, you may only have one so don't blow a fuse here Einstein.

This long standing top trend is and will continue to be the cycle top

Macro trends on high time frames aren't to be ignored.

This is the macro top going back to the crash of 1929. Don't stay too long.

If you like eating losses in a depression, all in is the move.

It's all in the title. This chart shows the entire market structure of the SPX from 1929 until now in an ascending wedge and just barely wicking over the top trend. We currently have met every pre-condition for a recession including a 2 year long yield curve inversion, bank unrealized losses 10X what they were prior to the crash of 2008, the Sahm rule having triggered with over a 1% spike in unemployment within the fiscal year, the first fed pivot to make the initial 50 basis points instead of 25, and the DXY on they way up. Bitcoin, and other assets will take damage when the SPX starts it's decline... possibly this week or next week.

Wroking on a perfect 3 point trend touch on monthly bearish divergence. A multi-generational crash is coming. All of this while we have the longest period 10 yr bond yield curve inversion in market history and 10% of stocks holding 75% of the entire stock market cap as in 1929 before the great depression. Hold at your own risk and find out why they say don't invest more then you're willing to lose. Best case scenario for BTC would be USDT.D revisiting it's weekly bottom trend on the linear but momentum oscillators are sharply down and NDQ weekly has a gravestone doji. Look to Nvidia to be the determinant factor for bounces and remember that, when it dumps, algorithms will sell everything.

Moonbois due to get the biggest disappointment since 1929 unless the top trend on the monthly RSI is broken and invalidated. Given the bearish divergence forming on the SPX in the monthly time frame, the hammer candle on the NDQ, and the 10 yr bonds back testing a potential break out, being all in on the market at this point is just dumber then a box of rocks. There is a potential for Nvidia to take a bounce off of the .786 on the hourly and put in a shoulder but momentum is visibly turning negative and I don't recommend anything other then taking quick swings.