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Daily scenario: falling wedge, rising support. Oversold rising Stoch RSI, MACD nearing crossover. Long opportunity in case of a D close at about 98k (or over) can be achieved, within few days. Expect growing selling pressure close to such breakout level and close to 102k $ mark if the wedge is broken up.Nearing 102k would imply a further possibility to visit ATH area.Flio of the coin: short term scenario is invalidated on a D close below 92,5k $.

Pretty nice weekly setup on Ethereum.* Price above MA20/W* RSI / Stoch RSI on the rise.* MACD about to crossoverA weekly close on volume above Par SAR (about 2882$ currently, falling) would signal inversion and prefigure a quick move towards 3300-3400$ area, edge of upper Bollinger band.In case such scenario happens, let's have a look at monthly picture.As you may notice, price is currently consolidating at support. A move up on W assisted by volume would likely ignite a stronger move toward 3800-4000$ area within few months. Meaning a (conservative) 30% upside.Watch it closely.For sake of completeness: (short term) invalidation in case of rejection and weekly close below MA20/W (about 2736$)This was meant to be a note, sorry. Actuale entry signal would be a close above 2880$ (and inherently Par SAR inversion), as I wrote above.Par SAR inversion achieved already. Watch weekly close.First target reached already.

Here we go, the "traditional" test of MA50/W is inbound. It may require some weeks, so keep an eye on weekly closes. If price holds over 51,5k on any W close we should expect another pretty strong leg up.First divergences start to show up.Soon good R:R Long opportunities may appear in the 56k - 51,5k area, as long as your orders are staggered and / or you maintain a stop loss below 51k.Well, the hyphotesis was actually on point, as BTC moved to ATH area once again.Now a further test of MA20/W (sorry for the typo in the OP test) is unfolding again. BTC sits at about 65k and it seems likely to bounce towards 67+. Then to be re-evaluated.This is likely part of a sideways action between 56/60k and 70/72k. A breakout of such range will likely ignite the next meaningful move.

Possible long scalp on ETHBTC Possible (low margin) Long from here. Target 0,0675. Pretty tricky and risky, not suitable for beginners. Don't blame me if it fails, DYOR. Any opportunity is worth considering.Comment: Half way up, at resistance. Expecting a pause.Comment: Lock it with a stop, -especially- if your running a margin Long here. Entry timing was pretty good. Zero profit is acceptable for trades like this, but a loss is not. Mind that.Comment: At target already, almost perfect scalp. feel ready to ride it at will, but have a TP. Enought for the scope of this post.Comment: At resistance, for those interested.Comment: Hello, keep an eye on ETHBTC. It's trying to escape the minor descending broadening wedge and achieved already a Par SAR reversal on W. Right on the edge as of now. Succeeding in a breakout here would likely pave the way up to 0.08 and strengthen the ascending triangle hypothesis. Filip of the coin: careful if 0.382 breaks.

Pullback possible short term, watch out. BTC almost doubled its price within six months, i think a pullback is likely to happen short term. Elements 1) Rising wedge 2) TD count 8 with signs of reversal 3) Bearish dovergence on RSI 4) Stoch RSI rolling over 5) Bearing difference on MACD, which is approaching crossover Prognosis Watch that rising wedge for early hints of confirmation, as BTC is very close to a high resistance area (32-36k). I think it's healthy to trigger risk management on for a while, hedging and/or protecting existing positions. Technically 28-26k area may be lapped or thoroughly revisited within days or few weeks. Not excluding am impulsive retest of MA200/W (flashcrash) wicking down to the 25k mark eventually. Anything below would such level would imply the need for a broader scenario re-assessment. For now i'd consider a short term retrace healthy for the trend.Comment: Ok, abruptly down 600-700$ already. Let's see the outcome ...Comment: Interim support is close to 29k (midline of daily BB). Anyway, would use some caution next few days.Comment: The picture as of now:Comment: That's why you had to use caution. Nice trap.Comment: Already "lapping" the target 28-26k area.Comment: TD count 9 on 4HComment: Would like to see a roughly 1k rebound towards typically 29,2-29,5k within 24/36h. This in order to avoid a further sudden slump deep into red. If so, to be re-evaluated.Comment: Few minutes ago price wicked down to 28.26k, hitting the FIB an technically entering the designated target area. It took about 4 days to successfully validate the hypothesis of this analysis. Well within the forecast, whatever happens next. Now we don't want to see the price plunging down more than needed here, as it may flashcrash. This is another matter. Hence a stop and rebound is needed, as i posted above. I'm looking forward for some relief in the next few hours, up to 24/36h. Still hedging for now. As per original recommendation. Enough said for now. Take care.Comment: Halved the short hedge and put the outcome into a Long with target price 29,2k. Will accept a partial risk there. Not recommended undless you can manage a stop.Comment: Hmm stopped already.Comment: Reopened the interim long at 28070$. Will let this run and see tomorrow.Comment: Ok, now let's see. Here is all the market (not only BTC), you may appreciate a pretty similar setup:Comment: There 4H show an over-extended move within a falling wedge. This hints either a bounce or a further slump to happen soon. As per hyphotesis i'd consider the forme option more likely. That said i am maintaining a 50% hedging as a due form of risk mitigation.Comment: Would like to see something like this ( 6H, whole market):Comment: Just got back, right in time to witness this bounce. Better late than never.Comment: Got my long from 28k closed at 29,2k as wished. Could do better, but it worked. Now just hedging.Comment: It played fine so far. Sorry for lack of updates, some health issues at the moment. Will get back stronger. Have a nice WE.

ADA looks pretty weak, but looking at the broader scenario hints a reversal may be not that far (in term of weeks).Accumulating (DCA) on ongoing and/or further weakness here makes for a good R:R case due to high market cap, in my opinion.Any further dipping down may well hint a bear trap in the making, given CMF and MACD.First target above the 0,7$ mark.To be evalutaed in 6 months.DYOR.Above support, diverging and nearing edge.It's all good, but it needs collaborative BTC/ETH in order to avoid a rejection.same as DOT and most alts.We'll see.Lot bought at 0,285 $Another one bought at 0,255 $Pretty overstretched (TD count 14), oversold RSI on W:Bought one more lot at 0,246.Won't buy more, unless i see a falling knife.Breaking 0,39 on a weekly close would be rather bullish.Not that far.Looking good, bullish if able to consoilidate above 0,39$ high.Obviously a pullback of BTC would damage the short term scenario, yet similarly to DOT i think medium term (about 12 month) it looks good. Red box would be an ideal target.Let's see.

Back in June in proposed a long trade on DOT weakness, whose first targets were roughly 17$ and 25$, to be evaluated within 3-6 months. DOT proved to move much slower than i originally expected, both ways, mainly due to markets uncertainty. Yet scenario is basically unchanged to me, the log chart above is still self-explanatory.I do think such targets will be ultimately fulfilled, despite likely requiring more time.Given that i'm still ready to double down on any further short term weakness preceeding the wedge breakout, as per original hyphotesis. While short term scenario is pretty murky and while a further dip MAY play out (trapping some shorts), i'd still expect a substantial move roughly by the end of year / first half of January.Hence within the aforementioned 6 months timeframe. In such case 9-10$ is the closest meaningful area to be monitored.That's what DOTBTC further suggests:As usual, DYOR.Close to edge, with a divergence ongoing on D.Watch it.Lot bought 5,38$Another lot bought 4,52$Looks like capitulation is unfolding, watch for volume.TD count 9 on both W and 2W.Minor trendline breakout on D.Whenever BTC/ETH will take a breath DOT (and many alts) will bounce substantially.Watch resistance.Call me mad, but i still think that 13-22$ area is pretty likely to be achieved.Possibly within 2023, albeit it's moving very low atm.Despite some likely drawback i think it will gain some traction and speed in the upcoming months.

This is a follow-up to previous W analysis, dating back to June 18th (last low day). I posted plenty of updates there and there's not much i feel to add, except that we almost reached the FIRST decision point.As i wrote previously, in my opinion Bitcoin has two possible routes up: either from above or from below the June low (general area).In order to fulfil the former option it should -ideally- play a double bottom scenario, roughly as represented on the above chart (Adam/eve bottom). It boils down to confirming that falling wedge by keeping afloat of support and piercing up 20,1k + MA20/W (now at 22,5k). RSI vs Stoch RSI is not ideal, but it has a chance it and overall R:R is decent.First target mid-20s, second mid-30s (to be re-evaluated).Intraweek wicks, both ways, wouldn't matter. Eyes on W close and on volume. The above scenario would be my preferred option.Failing that, the lower route chances would increase.Yet no hurry, let's focus on the former option for now."Prettified" weekly chart:Same scenario as seen on Monthly, about 2 weeks ago:s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/q/q1TN5h5o.pngFigsers crossed.---As always, DYOR and measure your risk.Have a stop.Previous analysis:Up about 600$ and testing resistance.Match is starting, we'll measure the outcome on W close.Good, but we still can't rule out a rejection.To be evaluated on W close.Long way to go.Still sideways within a 12% range, see box.Pretty unremarkable and boring price action.Breakout of that range will be telling.For now we have a pullback to previous resistance, an inner wedge and a bullish divergence ongoing. Stoch RSI looks close to bottoming, while DXY seems about to stall. No hurry, let's see ...Some W MAs painted on M, for a both-TF synthetic view.Key is MA20/W (red) falling and creating a wedge-like scenario.Black is MA200/W, just for reference.The way the lower BB expands more than the upper one usually implies a bullish bias. That said M is a huge TF and intra-month wicks cannot be excluded.All in all the above chart says we are getting very close to the first decision point, so watch out for range breakout and look for a confirmation in volume.Get ready for high volatility, which is likely to span (possibilye) from second half of october to whole november.Last time i saw such a scenario was inmarch 2019.Let's see whether Bitcoin is going to rhyme this time ...EDIT: typo above, black is actually MA300/WZooming a bit:No comment needed.Zooming:No volume. Patience, expect a big move.No doubt we sit on the edge of a strong moveThat's likely to start on Binance.Look at that volume, pretty different from other exchanges.Any sideways movements come to an end and this won't be an exception.It won't take long before we get back (huge) volatility.Weekly RSI (green), look for a breakout:2-week MACD VXI, crossover looks close:Eyes on DXY as well.It will be a huge move, breaking the range.twitter.com/caprioleio/status/1584498585559011330/photo/1Here we go.Price broke out of congestion and is in route towards MA20/W area (20,5-21k) where it should find resistance.MA20/W is THE key resistance and it may end with a squeeze or a strong rejection. Likely after a few attempts.For the current movement to be meaningful MA20/W should be pierced on a weekly close and confirmed on the following week, possibly with good volume. No hurry, let's see and wait for a confirmation of the scenario.Moreover, RSI didn't breakout yet:Watch it.Let's sum it up, on W:You get why MA20/W is key.Watch RSI/W.Test of MA20/W clearly ongoing.The outcome of the "upper route" described here depends on the breakout of such MA, with a further confirmation on weekly close on at least 2 consecutive weeks. A strong rejection would be cumbersome and may invalidate the scenario.So this is a crossroad.Be aware of risks: better to have a stop, as usual, for a comfortable ride.Let me tell it straight: it's crucial to confirm the below attempt of RSI/W breakout on tomorrow close.A failure would likely mean a sudden slump.Which would come at a noticeable cost in term of price and time.Watch it.RSI breakout not confirmed, still at resistance and beginning to show slight bearich divergences on D. Time to use some caution, be sure to have a TP placed.See MA20/W acting as resistance.Failing such test would imply revisiting 19,6k. First place.That's the reason i suggest using some caution here.Comment: Further test ongoing.Not much time left, it's either breakout or rejection within few days imho.All depends on volume.Watch it.Confluence pretty close to MA20/W.That's the calm before the storm.Volatilty ahead, likely both ways.Both ways, indeed ...Let's have the dust settle.Ok, here we go.Here things will get really messy.The below chart is merely illustrative of the broad scenario, in order to let me explain better my view.As you notice we have some small (candidate) bullish flag, which may play out for some time.Bulls need to confirm it in order to achieve a measured move up, basicalli an "inverted" ABC up to 22k.Failing to do so, (whatever the route - ABC there is just sketched) would be pretty messy ad we already have some bad omen:1) a rising wedge (exmaple in red)2) a bearish divergence (purple) on RSI.So, simply put, from here bulls need to prove able to:1) negate the rising wedge, breaking it up.2) pierce up through upper daily BB (and close above) .3) cancel that divergence by setting a HH in the 22k.That's pretty tricky.They do have a chance, especially if NASDAQ bounces, but you should be aware of the risks and act accordingly.Because failing the above scanrio, bears would likely regain the initiative. Albeit temporarily imho.Hence be sure to protect your gains with a stop.Very tricky even down to intraday TF:Let's wait for DOW and NASDAQ.Schwerpunkt.Let's hope the show will be worth the wait.Eyes on RSI/W on monday.At resistance:Clearly rejected by upper bound of the rising wedge. Still in bearish divergence with no HH.Messy, as expected.Weekly close was above MA20/W, so let's see whether 20,6k can hold for.A bounce is possible.Longer term:RSI/W was broken up, that's good.Will look for confirmation on next W close.FTX drama led to los of 20,6k, after the failure to overcome the rising wedge on saturday. Price saw a sudden slump, with infraction of the lower bound of the rising wedge.Fragile scenario, worsened by the ongoing divergence.Failing to overcome 20-20,2k would pose a serious threat to the odds of completing the upper route.No words.twitter.com/SBF_FTX/status/1590012124864348160Chapeau, CZ.Given the picture on 4H: oversold, overextended and diverging, i think a pullback towards the edge of the rising wedge is likely to happen.Then to be re-evaluated.20-20,2k is the key resistance.No bounce, straight to lows.Impressive.I think no point guessing till CZ / SBF speak.No news is bad news.While no irreparable damage has been done to the "upper" route, as we currently still it close to june low, it's time to look and prepare the lower route as well.This is my battle plan:1) i'm putting a foot in right here, by allocating 1/3 of liquidity in 16,9-16,6k area). Started already, by filling down to the 16,8k mark. Main idea here is cutting a wick / catching a technical bounce eventually.2) I've scattered 4 buy order in the 14.300-12.800$ area, along the lower route. Just in case not only FTX, but whole Alameda gonna fail. 1/3 liquidity as well.3) Now hands free, I'll use remaining liquidity to try and catch a knife eventually.Not much of a movement, so far.Adding a couple buy orders @15350$ and 14550$ and letting them run overnight.Good night.The picture so far.Soon for commenting, i prefer waiting for dust to settle.It seems we won't lack buying opportunities for a while.Let's see.

Ethereum down the middle of to supply zone, after an almost complete ABC correction.Overextended TD count and descending broadening wedge .Provided key support at about 1100$ holds (daily close matters), a bounce towards #TP1 at 1430-1510$ would likely follow.Highly risky and speculative trade, for traders only.Watch support, tune your entry, have a stop.DYORIt's moving slow and likely to meet upper boind of broadenoing wedge a bit lower than i would originally expect:Such test will be crucial.A look at weekly: key MA20/W sits at target range low.Meaning that Ethereum is pretty close to a key resistance area.Let's watch it.High at 1525$, target reached already.Yet personally i'm here for the long run.It took quite some time, but was definetely worth it.As usual, DYOR and protect your gains.Current chart:Enough for the scope of this analysis.Sidenote: Broadening Wedge breakout should be confirmed on close.Watch it.Ethereum close to resistance on hight TD count.Possible topping pattern, taking partial profit.Closing, as target was reached .Enough for the scope of current analysis.Trying to find a breakout.Will let this trade run and wait for BTC. Won't double down on Ethereum here though, too risky.In case of a strong breakout i'm confident some lagging alts will provide me better R:R from here.Will provide further analysis on ETH later, but it's too soon to judge.For now i'm just adding the above note.Eyes on ETH.If it manages to break through 1820$ ...Key resistance.

Ether ABC correction seems pretty done.We have decent volume on the June 13th weekly candle.Having no clear sign of inversion so far, cannot rule out a further drop closer to 800$ area.Yet scenario is already favourable for a Long trade, in my opinion.* TP #1 1700/1800$ area* TP #2 2500$ area (depends on BTC outcome, to be re-evaluated)Estimated 3-6 months.To be re-evaluated.Another wick down is possible.Mind that. More to come.Watch it now.Still struggling under 1280$.It was about time, Ether.1631$ highD timeframe: rising wedge, high TD count, bearish divergence, falling volume.Crossroad scenario: ETH needs a further impulse soon, or a correction would likely loom. We'll likely know within 2-4 days.Pretty similar picture on BTC.Close, isn't it ?Let's see.Support area down to the 1250$ mark.And bounce back over 1700$.First target area mentioned in OP is finally reached.It took a little more than one month.Enjoy, handle your profit.Watch that pennant/flag.That's the door to 2k for Ethereum, if confirmed.Problem is that if it gets negated -AND- price breaks short term support it may get ugly quick. Volume down and divergences recommend caution.Remember there's no safety net here.At support.Few time left for a 2k attack, from above support..Failing that it's a matter of few days before bears take the initiative.Further sideways or a move on low volume would accelerate the outcome.Trying to breakout.Pretty stretched though.First target reached close to the 1800$ mark.Partial profit taken at 1810$, slightly less than +50%.Zooming out.Pretty tricky, still diverging till 2k is pierced.rejection at 2k, sitting at resistance.Watch it.It's attacking MA20/W, whic is the KEY resistance.If it breaks through, avoiding a further rejection here, t's likely to push towards 2/2,4k area first place.Failed.Now close to the 1400$ area retracement limit i painted on the original chart, albet late. Bids are waiting.First bid filled @1408.Taking back the burden of part of the lots sold above 1800 in august.ETH has a chance to bounce if 1400$ pivot holds.4H:invalidated by loss of 1400$Bid at 1280$ unfilled.Shame.