elliott77

As an individual who has stepped back from cryptocurrency trading due to concerns over prevalent wash trading, I've moved away from the tumultuous seas of crypto. Nevertheless, let's indulge in a little speculative strategy on how one could "ride the wave" if they were still participating in the market. -Disclaimer- This strategy is a subjective thought exercise. It doesn't entail actual financial advice, and I am not currently trading cryptocurrencies myself. -Remember Peace of Mind- Whatever approach you choose, maintaining your peace of mind is paramount. If the stress is too high, it may be wise to consider more regulated markets such as stocks, though they come with their own set of complexities like dark pools and FTDs. While my skin isn't in the game anymore, theoretical approaches to navigating the crypto waters can still be intriguing. Always remember that the key is finding a strategy that aligns with your goals and comfort level, regardless of the asset class you're dealing with.Falling wedge pattern idea was a reach admittedly. Still see a double bottom forming in the long run. I'll let the chart run and we can see how accurate it is by May 2025. Good luck!Quick update ...hard to let go of the falling wedge pattern because it just fits IMO. I believe I was just early in my analysis of the pattern. Take CareWill the same pattern repeat? Is it that simple? We will see.This is going to take a while IMO. Take care

If your in BTC and your afraid of heights, its probably not the best time to be in unless you can afford to loose the money IMO. I see a large diamond shaping up and next up on deck is a huge drop if this analysis comes to fruition. Be safe. Perhaps you all see something I don't so good luck.Here is the idea on the 4 hour...I never get dates right so please don't look at the dates but just the general idea. No one can predict the future. This is only an idea I see. Please do your own analysis and come to your own conclusions. Take careHere is a bullish idea, assuming a diamond bottom is in play. Food for thought.BTC diamond top can go as high as 30k (I just adjusted the lines)...looks like the DOW for example can go a little higher and BTC will follow, but this weekend I suspect will be bloody, but we shall see.everything is slowing way down ...this weekend may not be bloody after allCall me crazy but I still see this... I have several paths drawn because its BTC and who knows which path it will take. Am I counting on a black swan event for this? ...maybe. Take careI am changing my targets...I think BTC may be super sensitive to the smallest DOW and other index moves ...here is my update. Call me crazy. Its just an idea folks. Take careWill the US gov sell some BTC over the weekend? It seems BTC can make some big moves when the US market isn't in session either up or down. This idea obviously points down but its BTC..anything can happen and we will need to adjust accordingly. Good luckThis idea is running out of time...I'll give it a few more days (Wed at 8:30 should be telling). Take caremeh this idea seems to have lost its traction, but I'll keep it alive a bit longer...It can go higher...let's see.BTC seems to be struggling to push up higher...look at the OBV arrows I show below. Aug 21' - beginning of Nov 21'. There doesn't look like there will be a push up to me as today's chart looks similar. I think BTC tops out at around 31k at the peak in the next 1-2 weeks and honestly I still see a sharp fall down within the diamond pattern. This is a weekly chart so this will take time to transpire. This is an idea only so please don't take it as gospel or me trying to claim I know the future. Now I do think there could be a black swan event in here and that may sound a little crazy. Perhaps nuclear weapons related events ...who knows and I'm not claiming to. But if this happens the volume would drop sharply and the recovery time will significantly speed up IMO. Otherwise it may just take a lot of time to recover and there is a chance it won't too right? Anything is possible. Lastly, there is a chance that BTC keeps going up if the OBV spikes up from here. I doubt this scenario, but anything is possible. Take CareJust watching and waiting for something to change...Let's look at the week again...its a little ironic its at the TD6 again...who knows but its interesting to me...take careIt looks like its out of gas...will be very interesting to see how this plays out over the next couple of weeks. Good luckFeel free to laugh at this one...its just a thought. I'm not trying to predict the future. Its just an idea and wanted to share. Take careIf we go by TD sequential, BTC has been hitting the 9 when heading down recently so that's next Tues-Wed ...let's see. Have a good weekendNext 10 days will tell us the direction. IMO big swings up and down, then very bloody. We shall see. Good luckHow it drops I do not claim to know...here is another idea. Good luckBTC going parabolic or a great big dump is coming and distribution is at work...I mentioned many months ago that a lot of big money got in around this price and they want their money back so... we shall see. Good luckLet me be clear about this ...big money is taking the general populations money right now and then they will short it hard so folks are stuck. Its the game they play so unless your familiar be careful OK. Take CareThis needs a couple weeks to transpire...just watching. Take CareNothing new to report ...a little update on the chart as its progressed...big weekDeveloping...diamond pattern idea is done IMO...Here is what I am seeing now. Still a big drop coming. OBV and history would say there is one last push up before the big drop. We shall see. Take careprobably looking at the beginning of June before the descent starts ...this is going to take a while to develop IMO. Good Luckdescent is starting now IMO...time is up. Timing is so hard to predict for me. Have a good summer and trade the bounces or take a break if swing trading isn't for you and come back later. Take CareAs you can see above BTC has one last push up at some random point according to the OBV...I don't like guessing so who knows when it will be. Good luckHere is another idea...we will see. Take CareIMO not much happening until mid June...things are slowing way down. Big money seems to be taking a break, maybe going on vacation, living life. My thought is down until mid June, then up for a month or so, then down to the level where people really question where BTC is going. Then BTC either keeps going down until the end of the year or makes a big move up to 50k by the end of the year which is possible IMO given its history and anticipation of a better 2024 market. This year may be good from the perspective of finding gems and sitting on them for when the good times possibly in the beginning of 2024. Some say good times are over. They may be right. You have to decide on what is worth the risk. Don't depend on anyone else. Take Care!Until the debt issues are resolved I smell manipulation coming...should be some good buy setups for swing trades only, not long IMO...good luckUpdated idea ... take careA lot of up and down for a few weeks IMO ....good luck and have a great weekendOBV hit my mark on the daily (shown below) so the one last spike up has occurred so its decision time for BTC. Will there be a big drop or will it keep going up? Let's use some common sense here though. With the debt issues still unresolved, markets are going to be manipulated, therefore I'm bearish until a debt package is in place and then Powell gives some good news. Good luck!Another idea with some different options. BTC will likely drop at least 13% by next week IMO unless news breaks about a debt deal and shifts momentum. Good luck as usualI'm looking for a manipulation drop down to the 23.6k area tonight or perhaps this weekend (depends on when the Senate passes the bill). If it doesn't drop, I'm open to BTC going up for now (watching OBV as usual for confirmation). There will be some good discounts to be had upon a drop IMO. Good Luck!Here is an update on a the OBV indicator ...following the path so far and starting to head down as expected. Good luckNow that the debt ceiling situation is over, what next? The matter was settled quickly and so the extreme manipulation I thought would trasnpire did not. BTC still looks weak however, and I believe it will drop but when, how fast and far? What I do know is that there are some ALTS that should make some good money in the future sitting at or near the bottom so I'm watching these. In the meanwhile I will just be watching the OBV and keep you updated with some ideas. Take Care!Here is another idea ...hope you have a great weekendzoomed in ...idea for the next couple of months....could go down (before going up first) but the same destination IMO (things slowing down) ...good lucklol ..down hard now. Of course, its BTC. No correlation with DJI which actually is not good IMO. Not ruling out a big crash now with this signal...take caremanipulative drop or start of a much bigger drop?combo idea ...so three ideas including the one above. Looking for validation on one of them but not in the market currently as more down is in the cards IMO...good luckInteresting ...OBV on the daily turned up and is right at the crossing point. Usually BTC makes dramatic move one way or another at this point. Let's see. Not guessing at this point. Looking for more confirmation. Good LuckOBV turned down again ...to me that is a very bad sign as I see this as a rejection. So this may be choppy for a while but more down seems to be in the cards IMO...good luckIf the recent past is an indicator of where we are going, we will arrive at "a" bottom about the end of July. Then a swing trade and then well we shall see. The big investors are on vacation while everyone else sweats it out as usual. They will drop it and then start their trading season again with a bargain near 20k. Sometimes it takes a while to figure these things out but I feel pretty good about this one...nothing will be good to invest in until then IMO...good luckNot sure what is going to happen before 2:30pm EST on Wed. when Powell speaks, other than a false breakout I suppose. His words will weigh heavy on the market IMO. Take careSame idea ...more detailed. Looks like a lot of volatility ahead till say the end of July to me...good luckBTC still bouncing off the OBV on the daily. Following the path for now. It will be interesting to see if BTC heads down 4-5% more before a bounce or if it falls off a cliff. I think. this is all controlled down until the end of July, but we shall see. Good LuckAnother idea...flat until the end of June gearing up for a downturn as we get closer to rate hikes. Squeezing the lemon. We shall see. Good luckIts up in the air at this point what the path will be but more down ultimately IMO...good luck!Here is BTC OBV on the 5 day. Its either looking like a controlled drop by end of July (estimate) down to the 20k area with a pop up to 26-27k and then back down to say 23k before resuming up OR this like May of 21' where BTC is going to head right down to the 12k area. Its really hard to know so I think about the current economic state. Election year is next year so the markets will likely start picking up IMO. No more interest rate hikes looming next year (that we know of). We have a couple more this year coming and one in July probably so why not drop it down now? Well that's my logic. We shall see. Take careupdated idea...good luckOBV on the daily is hinting at BTC taking the "green" route or the rising wedge heading to 33k area over the next month or two OR will the OBV fall/crash quickly back under the trend line, thus a BTC crash? Its your call to make. Has BTC been consolidating and is now ready to head up or it this a fake out? I think if BTC can clear 27.3k its likely to head up. Of course count on a pull back at some point to keep you guessing but if you know the trend, you can track the path. Good LuckIf BTC can't clear 27.3k, I think it will pull back to the 25k area and then we simply look to DJI for example to guide us on the path thereafter. If DJI for example pulls back only to head higher, so will BTC. On the flip side, expect a hard crash if DJI doesn't find support and keeps going down. This is ONLY my opinion but my trading plan. I watch and wait until a decision is made. Good luck.BTC has spoken IMO ...up until end of July to 33k area then down until end of Nov? We shall see. Take Care!slightly updated idea...same timelines until BTC shows otherwise...good luckzoomed in a bit ...we shall see. Good luckBTC look like it may wants to slowly climb up to the target ...let's see. Good LuckWatch out ...BTC is being tricky. It may come down and get 28.8k quickly..wowupdated idea ...good luckA little push up (max up shown...doesn't mean it gets there) and then a drop to 27k? Let's see. Take careIMO BTC is either going to jump up to its target as shown above or do something like this ...either way its looking like the end of Aug may start a new downtrend to me. Markets change and I'll adjust but this is what I'm seeing now. Take caremeh prob like this ..changed my mind. Good luckJust speculating based on DJI for example. Perhaps that's bad logic (in other words feel free to disagree) but its what I am thinking. BTC needs to be a bit more tricky IMO so a drop down when DJI drops and then a bit higher than I have shown so near 34k. We will see how this all plays out so for now I am waiting for the 3 main US indices to give direction because it will regardless of what others say about how BTC is no longer tied to them. This will drag out for at least the next month so. Waiting for decent support to be hit for a swing trade...I'll wait to post more as I am just guessing at this point which is no good. Take careThis week will likely be bloody IMO. I have updated my chart to show that in the distant future 20k area may hold. Its possible. Much has to happen before then of course. Take CareIs BTC being tricky or does it have a huge jump start on the US index drop and how far down will it go is the question. Could BTC do something like this? Take CareHere is a tricky thought where BTC forms a head and shoulder and then fakes out everyone and heads up quickly from the 20k area. Considered how manipulated price movement is, I think this makes a lot of sense actually. Take Caresame idea as the ones above but with different timelines..going to stop posting until this all plays out so we shall see. Take Careupdated path idea ...good luckupdated path idea ...good luckA guess at timing (which of course is impossible to estimate) so just food for thought on how this could play out. Good luck.Look like a rise before the fall is in the cards IMO...good luckLooks like the previous idea was the more accurate path. There will be blood IMO. Aug and Sept are terrible trading months typically...let's see where the dust settles in Oct. Sure there will be a bounce for the next week or so but it won't last for long IMO. Take Care...I won't be posting till Oct likely.Following the route...let's see what happens in the next couple of weeks. Take Care!same idea ...different timing. Good luck!long term prediction ...good luckforgot to show that in 2025 we may see a decline instead of an increase. Good luck11% drop incoming? Let's seeupdated idea...looks like BTC wants to get to around the 32k area by next week and then IMO a big drop back to the 25k area may be in the cards. This seems inevitable to me but we shall see. The question will then be can BTC hold the 25k area before resuming up? I think we will know my mid Dec. if that's true. Good luck!LOL... See you at the bottom. Take CareWill be my last idea here for a while. Good luck and Happy Holidays.

This is an update to an already existing idea of mine that keeps developing. The logic behind this chart, other than pattern analysis, is simple; Market psychology paired with a bad economy. In this chart BTC breaks down to 11.5k by the end of the December timeframe (though timing is impossible to predict, this is just an estimate. If often takes longer than I estimate) and only if BTC touches the broadening wedge line, otherwise it keeps heading down until it touches it. Then it goes up quickly. Oh my goodness BTC is back...it's hit bottom, everyone is long. Not so fast. This is the psychology aspect. BTC runs up quickly to pull in the longs at around 32k only to dump all the way down to 7.5k before I would consider going long and only then will I need substantial proof such as a recovering economy. The economy stinks and sadly BTC is not a hedge against the type of inflation we are currently experiencing. If the FTX situation hasn't affected your trading plan, I would say it may be a mistake not to consider its effect. More trouble is coming. The 32k rise I show on the chart is likely the exit plan for some of the big investment companies IMO. Good luck. Stay safe and be patient. Don't let BTC ruin Christmas with the ones you love. Its best to be patient in these times and not lose the precious money you worked so hard to earn and utilize to care for your family. They are a much better return on investment anyhow. Take Care!Smaller timeframe idea...another idea to speculate where BTC may bounce ...I think this may take a while. Slow churn down until mid April? Just an ideamoving along the path which means we can suspect a sharp drop here within the next couple of weeks ...let's seeJust an idea ...last idea and then we will wait and see...what if BTC falls all the way down to 10.7k ish by the end of the month? If so then it could rally back up to 32-42k by mid April. One thing is for sure is that this needs more time to develop. Pair with your own analysis. As a reminder, no one knows what this crazy market is going to do. This is only an idea...Still my thoughts ...seems like BS to me but we shall see.such is the market ...idea is being blown out of the water....good luck to you all.Will the market try to shake investors out before resuming up or is this BS and it will continue down until its clear rates will b stable?The market is starting to decide... closing this idea as I don't want to risk influencing one way or another. I post ideas to help with one's analysis, not hurt. Good luck Bullish idea...we shall seeI would imagine there will be a pullback in the near future but we shall see...final post on this idea. Take care.I lied ...one more post but what the hell was that or still is? ...hmm. I'm out of my league I suppose. Here is another bearish idea. Seems the euphoria is dying down on all markets. Kind of like when people go to the gym in the New Year..yeah I'm gonna do it and then.. hmm watching TV on the couch is more enjoyable. We shall see but if BTC does drop this much ...good grief, get the hell out. Its risky business at the moment IMO. Some coins seem to have made it down and are slowly building but some have plenty of room left to drop. Take Care!nope ...maybe the US market can hold its position and BTC will rise up with haste...we shall see...take are.

CPI numbers come out tomorrow morning. Will they be worse than expected? Probably not but also not good enough. I think there will be a selloff as a result until the Fed meeting Sept. 20-21. I think BTC will hit bottom again and stay there for a month or so before resuming up (unless some world event causes a crash). I think BTC will climb until the beginning of December. Where will it go after that I cannot presume to know. Let's see if this idea can play out. No one can predict or know. This is simply an idea. Food for thought to pair with your own analysis. Good luck!Well, CPI numbers were worse than expected which went against a lot of estimates. This should push BTC down to the target IMO or maybe even lower. Fear is in the air now and will the fed raise rates higher than expected come the Sept meeting will be question. Let's see how the markets react on open to get a better ideaGiven the negative CPI report I wonder if instead of BTC hanging out for a month near current lows as I was predicting above, if we will see a crash down to 15k now and then a V recovery. It's just a thought. Let's seeBy the way the dates for the targets are just estimates. It may turn out that the Fed raises rates higher than expected (Powell did say they will act with resolve now...and learn from the past) and that's what triggers a drop to 15k so after the 21st. We shall see but once that is baked in I think the market can go back up. Good luckBTC seems hellbent on getting to sub 19k...will this support hold? Does BTC want to dive down to 15k? Will it happen before the 20th? A lot of movement before the big even next week with the Fed meeting. Will the Fed raise it a full point? Is this being baked in now? Yeah... A lot of fear but also a good bit of manipulation so be mindful of this. No need to get caught up in the games the bulls and bears are playing with each other at the moment IMO. Take careNot ready yet to dive down...here is my thoughtI settled on this for now...This weekend could be bloody...stay safeIt will likely test 18.5k ...My current thoughts...a little rise before the fall IMO. Let's seeThe more I contemplate the original idea, the more I think we have hit bottom and its up from here. It will all depend on the FOMC report Sept. 21 at 2pm EST. I have a suspicion Powell will raise it .75 instead of the 100 points I had originally thought. I think he knows he will tip the markets over and cause more pain than good but we shall see. Good lucksmaller timeframe idea...Here is a couple of different paths I'm watching...just my opinion. We shall seeIt will take time for BTC to show its cards...better to wait and see IMOHere is my outlook through the weekend ..let's seeBigger picture... I've heard some say there is no support near 15k or in this case 14.8k..yeah that's what happens when stop losses get hit and BTC free falls. It gets caught and bought up...just a prediction. Pair with your own analysisSell the news ...buy low ..good luck!Let's see how BTC does over the weekend ...should tell us what we need to know in regards to how to invest in the future IMO. Let's see and take it from there. The idea stands thoughIt may be a slow churn down or finally a sharp drop by Wed I am estimating...something like this. Let's seeA slow churn down it would seem...My trading plan...I don't see this level holding but ...it may..unlikely though IMO...good luckFor now it appears this level will hold...DJI is bouncing..for how long? Not sure ...but BTC can go up now IMO..so far my original idea is doing pretty well it would seemThis idea may break down mid November where we ma have capitulation...let's seemoment of truth for BTC ...got my popcorn out. Will it drop like a rock or stay sideways? Doesn't look good at the moment TBH. Slingshot? Take careWell this idea is doing well but it will likely end soon IMO. It seems we are in a right-angled broadening wedge pattern. We will likely spike up out of the falling wedge about 11-12% up and then starts the real bear market. This is what it looks like to me so last chance to make some gains IMO. Lastly this idea is about to become invalid as a result. I'm learning and the chart already was there, I just didn't see it. I more than welcome being wrong and for BTC to continue its climb but there isn't the evidence for it at the moment. Good luck!I'm leaning towards this path...nothing special here. Right-angled broadening wedge pattern as mentioned a few posts back. Idea is that the Fed will keep raising interest rates and it will keep pushing the market down. I think this may be the last leg up until the time gets closer to the next interest rate hike. Just an opinion. Let's seeHere are a few ideas to pair with your own analysis.IMO if DJI can't close above 31k by tomorrow (50 day EMA on the daily), then BTC is primed for a big fall over the weekend. On the flip side if it does clear 31k watch out BTC shortsI should explain my reasoning above a bit. DJI is in a double bottom pattern and its messing around at the neckline. Once it decides which direction to go BTC will follow IMODJI making moves between 10-11AM EST...lol. Let's see what happens after lunchHere is my DJI analysis...if I were betting, I would guess that DJI heads back down today and at end of day tomorrow its a bit below 30,230 by close to paint a grim picture of it loosing the neckline. BTC drops a little over the weekend. DJI heads down on Monday pretty hard and so does BTC but it finds support and then heads up. Just some thoughts. The market knows. I write my ideas so you can always pair with your own analysis. By no means am I suggesting that I can tell the future or I am right. On the contrary as you can clear see, I am wrong quite often but its my profession to study data so that's what I've been doing with the markets for a few years now and I'm learning a lot. We never stop learning right?DJI instant replay or is it taking off? If it's an instant replay, time wise this means next week is going to be bloody all around and IF timing is the same as the last drop like this, next weekend may be the big drop before what could be a substantial bounce. Markets can't be timed of course. This is just an idea. Good luckBTC chart idea as it stands currently IMO. Forget a BTC rise if DJI can't get above resistance. Lastly can 18k hold? I am very curious about thisWell I'm going to have to eat my words on a DJI 31k closing on Friday and a BTC squeeze ...I still see a fall this week. I just can't have a bullish outlook yet when overall the market is very bearish. DJI will have to move above the 50 day EMA on the daily and stay there for me to be convinced. It will be very interesting to see what DJI does on Monday. I think BTC will be very sensitive to any move DJI makes because it's time to move it down aggressively it would seem. I re-drew my lines and gave a possible path. Let's see what happens. Good luckI think DJI is going back to the 30k area in a few days and BTC will move down hard during this time ...just an opinion. If everything lines up it may be time for a run up. Let's seeI think DJI is headed to 30.2k and then up. How far will BTC head down during this time? I'm not sure its going to make it down to 17.5k anymore...I've revised my estimate as shown on the chart. Coincidentally this still aligns with my original idea. Good luckBTC finally responded to the US index rise (I look at DJI as you know). I think up to the target though its at resistance now. Let's see. One day at a time. Good luck!long term...maybe something like this. Good luck

A lot of my analysis is based off of US markets, DXY, and where I think the economy will be next year. Let's seeLet's zoom in a bit on the 4 hour. Is BTC printing its famous Adam and Eve Pattern before heading up? ...we shall seePath is TBD. Here is another path ideaI am starting to think BTC is going down much further unless the Adam and Eve idea posted here ends up playing out. I don't want to give false hope. Good luck to you all. I will post again when things become more clearI'll leave you with this thought on a smaller timeframe so you can compare to your own analysis ... good luckA last thought ...could 16.8k be bottom? hmm..I truly wonderI think we may be printing an ascending triangle now which means the bottom may have been in but of course we shall see. BTC could surely go lower. Here is my updated predictionIn the short term, I think BTC goes down over night (US time) into the 13th and hits the bottom (19,150k area) of the ascending triangle and then starts to head up...maybe this extends to the 14th but I'm doubtful. Let's see and good luck to you allIt could extend to the 14th...I changed my mind :) ...this idea will be validated or invalidated in a couple of days IMO...good luck to you allWell here we are at the 14th...so far the ascending triangle pattern is shaping up IMO. Could BTC drop down to the wedge line? For sure ...but will it?Will BTC loose everything it just gained?Here is a small time frame prediction...BTC seems to be in a pattern of an ascending head and shoulders and then takes off after it hits the neckline from the head...will it happen again? If so it will be a good weekend as I'm predicting DJI will end strong this week as well now but of course time will tell ...good luck!Which way will BTC go? We will soon find outIts really hard to not think we are going up from here...perhaps a flash crash down and then back up but looks good to me...we shall seePlease do your own research...this is not financial advice. Just my opinionWell I should have stuck with my initial 21k area down...here is what I see for the time being. Good luckI think sideways and up over the next 60 days to match my DJI prediction...let's seeupdate...DJI pulling back?...will BTC follow the same pattern? We shall seeLet's give it a couple of days and see if it heads down to the targetcan it keep going up?lots of patience required now...we wait for confirmationmaybe something like this ...very curiousMy updated long term trading plan...Bulls or Bears? Let's see who winsCan BTC bounce off of 23.5k or is there more down in the cards?Maybe something like this for the next month and beyond...Will BTC take off or do something like this?Not looking good but its BTC ..anything happenIt looks like sideways for a week or so before another decision to me. I am hoping things will be much clearer around that time on which way it may go. We must think bearish and be surprised if bullish so let the market decide...good luck!If for some reason DJI sells off at the end of the day I expect something like this...hmm ..there is quite a bit support here..updating targetLOL DJI probably going to find some recovery before the day ends ..that little spike was probably it ...back to sideways for a week or so IMO. We always need to be prepared for a classic while your sleeping BTC drop though... good luckBTC will bounce a bit, but when and where? BTC doesn't look good at all overall sadly and we should prepare for more down in the near future...trade safethought on BTC's next moves...Here is my thoughts ...I think folks are scared about the FED meeting tomorrow and it will drop BTC overnight (US time) and then rise back up for a month or so before deciding again what to do with the FED Sept 22 meeting...let's see if this logic plays out. It will all depend on how DJI closes today IMO...good luckanother option until tomorrow morning after 10AM EST ...let's seeWell BTC didn't head down to 20k but its on its way IMO. Powell's outlook is grim for market growth that is. Sept rate hike will likely be larger than projected was my take. They must take the necessary measures and it will be greater pain later if they don't act now. Seems pretty straight forward to me. I am not an expert but I would think this would knock markets down quite a bit. How much is baked in to the market now is the question (most expected Powell to be hawkish) I am not able to answer myself. This is for the more experienced trader though I am watching and learning to get there. Good luck and trade safeAfter that close by the Dow, there isn't much to look forward to this long weekend IMO. Let's seeOn the positive side, prepare for some ALT discounts...hmm..maybe BTC can stay flat all weekend so some ALTS can rise? ..a possibility before resuming down again next week along with the Dow? We shall see..just food for thoughtI'm not too sure what BTC is up to but this is a fake rally IMO...here is my current thought...I personally think 15k is bottom but we shall see ...I think a slow rally from this price back up picking up steam until the end of the year...if 15k can't hold brrr...its going to be a cold winterClosing this idea as I have another idea open as of yesterday...I think BTC is poised to go lower and this idea may have lost its validity. The CPI report this morning certainly will impact the market in the month of September.

BTC can't seem to rise above the 200 EMA on the 4hr. Will it be any different this time? We shall seeI should have titled this "Can BTC stay above the 200 EMA on the 4 hour and for how long?". Also on the 1 day can BTC rise above the 50 day EMA? This is what I am watching now. I'll give BTC less than 5 days to make it up, otherwise this is still down to me. The volume on the daily has fallen steadily since this run began and volume is king. If volume starts to pick back up tomorrow and the next day then it will get my attention, otherwise this is just another ploy for the rich to keep the price above 27-30k so they don't loose a lot of money IMO. Good luckLet me expound on why I think BTC rose up only to fall again. I think DJI is going to have a steep fall this week and lately BTC and US markets have been moving in step with each other. Many have thought that the Dow will topple over ...many times including myself but I think its time. If not BTC goes up IMO and I was fooled. It wouldn't be the first time but I don't want to loose a lot of money while I sleep. I'll invest when DJI starts a new trend up.Well BTC passed the 50 EMA on the 1 day and volume picked up. Two things I was looking for. I'm starting to be convinced this isn't just a quick ride up before a drop down but a long opportunity. Still giving it a few more days. Good luckHere is an idea if BTC (2 day) keeps going up. I need to be open to both sides even when I don't understandHere is a super bullish idea for fun ...My current view but BTC could fall down as I initially predicted ...we shall seeHere is another idea. BTC can't quite seem to lift off. Perhaps it will though?Another idea like the one above only a smaller drop for BTC on the right shoulder. Question may be -> will it fail at the bottom of the right shoulder and go south quickly?I do believe UP now...let's see. My goodnessTarget is 52k IMO. It looks like the inverse head and shoulders idea I posted the other day which is super bullish. Are we going on a ride up?My current thought ...Its going up folks whether you like it or not...careful shortsThere will be lots of volatility IMO. It will be a bumpy rideBTC going down just south of the 42k area before moving back up?High level prediction... a lot can change this of course such as Russia invading Ukraine which would drop an already weak world market including BTC IMO. These situations are always taken advantage of by smart moneyI may be closing this too soon as BTC could drop hard down to the 30k area or south of there but only time will tell. Good luck to you all!I'm going to stick a fork in it for now unless it shows me otherwise...For those of you that may wonder why I switched from an inverse head and shoulders to a head and shoulders, the reason is simply that the inverse head and shoulders failed to break out. Finally it all makes sense. I was beginning to wonder what BTC was up to but more down seems to be in the cards. If your shorting it kept you honest :)Keep in mind BTC will revisit the blue line again so it will go up in the short term IMO but ultimately downor not ... lol. I'm watching folks so I don't care what happens right now.Just a prediction...Will we have a bounce here on support or will it continue down to the target? Let's see what DJI does as its in the same boat sitting on support until it could plummet down further.I'm not really convinced of BTC going to 11k...maybe it will do the typical 84% retrace as many say but the market hasn't behaved the same since 2019 IMO. I still think this is a consolidation pattern and we are about to hit the final down (third touch) before a new up trend begins and continues for months to come. We shall see. We certainly are in some unchartered waters with many variables in the world factoring in. Good Luck!Maybe a very long wick down and back up into the consolidation area? I'm open to that but I think it may be brief? I think a huge drop is in the cards within the next couple of weeks. If not, then I'm glad to be wrong. I'm analyzing some altcoins that could drop anywhere from 30-50%. Crazy if that happens but will it? We will find out.fascinating...another thought could be that alts rebound by 30-50% and then drop again another 30-50% for a double bottom...time will tell but I'm open to eitherA thought ..up and sideways for almost 2 weeks and then down more? Let's see.fake rally IMO...I'll give it a couple of weeks for the dust to settle. It is quite interesting thoughWhat happens when "whoever" is buying, already in a panicked state sees it crashing? It will crash very very hard IMO and smart money will scoop it up. I still don't see it going down to 11k as many famous traders say but maybe I'm wrong. If BTC does keep going up I will be scratching my head for sure. Good luck to you all in this very interesting time in history from a market perspectivemore thoughts...My prediction is that BTC is headed for 38k (IHS) and that this support won't hold and down we go. It's following DJI pattern in its HS pattern. BTC parted ways for a few days due to folks buying BTC. I'm guessing by March 14,15th timeframe DJI and BTC will once again be synced up. Just an opinion. Maybe things will be more clear in a couple of weeks. Good luckJust in time for the Fed interest rate hikes on March 15th and 16th ...you get the pictureinverse cup and handle my guess ...back up to 44k and then down to 38k IMOHad to wait for the bottom to get the retrace top ...here is my estimate Will BTC keep going down?moved the line again ...IHS! nice ... I have quite the bullish outlook at the moment. Too much confirmation IMOWhat we've got here is failure to communicate :) I got out needless to say. Let's see how this plays out.A few thoughts...I'm sure you all have yours as well so just thought to share mineI'm abandoning the smaller timeframe analysis and stepping back to the 1 day. This needs time to develop and it seems the geopolitical stuff is on the side now IMO. I keep coming back to the consolidation idea. March historically hasn't been fruitful for BTC. Good luckHere is a 4hr view...Bull trap? That's what I think but let's see...More time needed. I will be surprised if BTC heads up from here but will respond accordingly if it does. Next week BTC should show us its cards IMO and it should be easier to see where its headingThe idea still remains in tact...add patience :)Been out of town...here is my current thoughts. Of course this could change if BTC volume doesn't increase. Is 54k the next stop or will we head back down? Very curious times as usual with BTCupdated my lines and targets slightly ...let's see... volatility is showing upanother thought...Been away ...here is my current thought.I also wonder if BTC is going to make a run very soon and then ALT season will occur for 20 days or so in April before deciding to head back down in May possibly?Maybe something like this...Give it a few days...a reversal is in play IMOI'm going to play this like a run up to the mid 53k area and then a drop by end of April back down to the 40k area before support and accumulation begins before the next run up IMO.still my viewpoint ...Looking back at Jan 25, 2020...some similarities here. I added in the same "top" time frame for fun (19 days). This would give ALTS time to do their thing IMO. The downside is if BTC truly follows what it did then, it means a brutal drop down to 29k but that was because of Covid which can be looked at as an outlier. 40k is still where I am targeting so the 38% fib for a typical handle for the cup idea. I assume BTC will find support there and would resume its uptrend.I am expecting some volume to pick up here for BTC heading to the purple line and then a pullback before resuming up...let's see what happensI feel a little crazy right now but this is what I still see...37k then 29k? Who knows. This is why I should have stopped posting on this idea. Such is bitcoinAre the powers that be gonna land the plane nice and soft with a slow take off or will there be some acceleration to this downtrend? How about tax day for a bottom :). It is boringThe 15th is good Friday as well as tax day...will BTC die and "rise" again? lolso boring ...maybe it drops down to stronger support before bouncing a bit ...needs to buy more time to align with the US markets IMOIs it time for BTC to drop? We wait...its not done IMO. One more drop down before any substantial bounce.going as planned so far...kind of eerieCooking up an Adam and Eve pattern?I'm going to play it like a deeper drop from the head on the neck line so to create a higher low when coming out of the head and shoulders which for BTC usually results in a bullish move up IMO. This would pair nicely with my Dow diamond pattern bottom...let's seeMaybe it doesn't drop quite so deep as what I have shown above...maybe more like this...we should find out today and definitely by tomorrow IMO although timing is hard to predict...probably the Dow will close low today and after market close BTC will drop to its destination maybe before 7pm when futures open? I'm guessing futures will open positive to stop the bleeding and some good news will come out to prop the market back up for a couple of months. Just a thought...well its hard to know the right angle but here is an updateSo much for 1-2 days ...ugh. I'll give it 4-6 more days to drop back down to the neck line. I hope it happens sooner but it would seem more waiting is in the cards.Different idea...down to the 34.5k-34.9k area completing the symmetry for the Adam and Eve in the next 4-5 days? Seems like it to me but we shall seeHmm...maybe we are ready for a move up. Let's seeIt appears that BTC is going to head back down to the low 38k area in the next 2-3 days..let's seeIt may be ready to go ...let's see what DJI and DXY dolooks more like low 38k region at the momentWill 38k area hold? Will we see a dump down to 35k over the weekend. All eyes on DJI IMO and if it can hold 33.1k area. Let's seeDown more the next days after a little rise IMO...no up...its heading to its target ...ugly weekend most likely but the day is not over...It would seem to me that a big drop is coming in the next week...could be tomorrow or it could take its time but its coming. It seems more likely that the drop will be very hard so we can get a wick down to 22k possibly. Be ready to get a discount IMOI am adding more time to my estimate ...Its looking now like the middle of June before any big rally begins IMO...we shall seemy thoughts...update...I'm back to thinking a bit more down ...if DJI moves down 4% like I think then BTC will definitely move down 8% as sensitive as it has been to DJI drops IMO but let's see ...I think its a good buying opportunity on the drop...Can BTC hold this level? perhaps ...let's seeIf BTC can hold this level I would expect something like thisIt looks like its holding. DXY going down, DJI going up...finally up for a bitThis is a rough ride but maybe just maybe this will play out...Just my current thoughts ...BTC going down to its target in the next week or two IMOtricky BTC ...let's see which routeslight update ...who can know the pathfascinating turn of events...dow is heading to its target... will it bounce tomorrow or go down more? If it goes down more (1.7-2%) to its target it will be a very ugly weekend for BTC IMO but let's see. good luck!Ugly weekend ...bounce or no bounce? We shall seeUpLOL I wasn't around for the last hour of the Dow closing so I couldn't post...ugly weekenddoes an aggressive move down mean an aggressive move up? we shall see but this is what I suspectwhich path? I think a little hop up before the last leg down...DJI hit bottom, DXY - double top IMO ...BTC is ready to go finally IMO. I wonder if it will sputter out of the start gate or take off and start sprinting. I really don't think anymore down but its BTC, anything is possible...closing the idea

BTC finding support on the 2 day 200 EMA? Let's seeI would have thought a bounce by now but the selling continues. I changed my line to move across support instead of the beginning of the rise...my mistake but the idea remains.Here is my short term prediction on the 2hrAnother decision point for BTC ...more down or finally up? Based on the daily chart, BTC looks primed for a rally (soon) that may sustain. I had thought maybe BTC would rally and then drop slowly until the end of the month and it may, but its quite possible it takes off from here IMO. My analysis shows around the 16th a decision will be made with this regard but predicting BTC timing is virtually impossible so we wait for confirmation.Looks like a run up to me. BTC why are you in a hurry? It may take up to market close to find out what BTC is up to or it may happen in a couple of hours. If I were to guess I would say its going to make its way up to the 45-46k area by tonight and sit there overnight making us wonder what it will do. I am undecided as it could go either way. I do think a decision will become clear tomorrow. Good luck to you all.BTC needs another 3 days to decide IMO...let's seeWhen BTC dropped it added a couple more days so I think in about 4-5 days we will know which direction BTC will head. I'm guessing down eventually as I had originally thought. I also think the low could be eye opening but its all part of the plan for smart money to get the best buy. I think the price will lift back up a get back on track to fit in the ascending triangle structure. That's how it usually works right? Not much has changed. Let's seeThose that called the cup and handle were spot on it seems. I have a new path shown with the target IF BTC can break out of the cup and handle but it could always fail...let's seeupdated analysis...Looks like the descent continues...let's seeanother possibility IMOLooks like an inverted cup and handle to me...should start dropping hard around 40.7k. Let's seeIs tomorrow the big and final drop before a slow recovery (probably 2-3 weeks) before BTC makes its way back to the 65k area? Only time will tell but its fascinating to watch IMOI just keep moving my lines...the drop is timed IMO so it will happen when the powers that be decide to drop it.The DOW is likely going to drop another 2% within the next few days IMO..maybe sooner than later. BTC and US markets have been correlated recently as some have pointed out. What does that mean? IMO a big drop by BTC as I show, followed by a rally soon after unless more down? We shall seePattern look familiar? I think so. More patienceIf I were smart money this is when I would drop it. It would create panic selling and great bargains. BTC has been slow about its business though...probably more down until the end of the monthThat move by BTC confirmed to me an even lower target...36.7k area now. I'll give it 5 days or so to get there based on the past trend. The DOW will go down more today or tomorrow as well IMO. Next week we will likely see some up. Let's seeanother idea ...ascending head and shoulders. I never trust BTC in a head and shoulders pattern which is why I am showing a possible bounce up.That was the right shoulder IMO...And another idea where Jan 28th is the low...let's seeThings change quickly..DOW dropped like I thought and down goes BTC..how hard and far down will it go down? Let's seeMy thoughts at the current momentStill glass half empty outlook until something positive changes...Sorry for delay...been unable to update. BTC is now in a consolidation pattern IMO. I have an idea on this that I closed already. Perhaps I'll reopen another. Good luckWhat does this mean...I already predicted a top of 100k given the measured target from the consolidation pattern, however there is always the blow off top scenario where BTC keeps running up for a time after it reaches the targetLastly if I haven't made this clear from my notes, there is a direct correlation between US/World markets and BTC. I am giving more weight to this in my analysis as time goes on. BTC does not behave as it used to so we must adapt.Here is a link to my previous chart I alluded to above ...

I think there are four possible paths ... 1) drop to low 29k in the next 10 days 2) take off from the neckline in the head and shoulders up to around the 58k area (path I'm leaning towards at the moment) 3) head and shoulders pattern completes and then drops down to the 26k area briefly before climbing back above 29k area ...sideways and then up to the 65k area which would put BTC in a consolidation pattern IMO 4) head and shoulders pattern completes and then we move up like BTC typically does in this pattern (odd but true) I'm open to all scenarios but a brief up to complete the right shoulder seems like it could be in play soon but we shall see. There are uncanny similarities with the OBV and MACD when the left shoulder broke down to the neck (a coincidence?) If BTC were to do as it normally does and go up from a head and shoulders pattern it would also fit a cup and handle pattern nicely with the 38% fib being hit, then up and sideways before volume comes in and moves it up to? BTC will do as it wants as I often say. Just look at the technicals and commit or don't but I wouldn't be too overconfident either way. If you enter I would encourage you to keep stop losses. Yes there will be stop loss hunting but its better to be safe than sorry IMO unless you have money to burn which most of us do not. Take careWell #1 is out due to the 10 days I predicted which in hindsight was sort of silly as BTC timing is so hard to predict. I do think it will eventually head down to the 26k area but when is the question. The head in shoulders pattern is definitely in jeopardy at the moment. Bears are winning easily. Barring a LOT of buying volume, I would say BTC drops to the 42k area next, maybe even much lower as it looks weak IMO. Good luckLOL...BTC. Reclaimed the neckline. Let's seeIMO when BTC can get over the 200 EMA on the 1HR it will head up to form the right shoulder. If it can't do that I expect a dump. Let's seeI'm going to close this idea out because the course changed some...here is my current thought...good luck!

Have we seen this pattern before? I think so and it may look something like this IMO. The climb up is short (less than 20 days). The drop could be harsh. What better time to drop the bottom out when everyone expects a bull run? (about mid December). I am very leery at the moment until proven otherwise.I moved the line of the wedge up and provided a possible path...good luckI would even say this is possible. Better to be prepared for the worst IMO. Maybe BTC will surprise us. Let's seeDecision time...which path? We should know soonLooks like up to me...let's seepossible path IMOThis idea may be a little bit of a stretch from a prediction but I think it holds some value. Drop down to 55.6k area in a few hours and then find its target later tonight or tomorrow near 60k. Let's seeI think we are going to dip about 3% down and then rip up to the target. What will happen during this time? I think ALTS may benefit but let's seeI raised my target up to 55.9k areatarget hit...hey sometimes you get it right :). I see the ALT space heating up until BTC finds its way back down but let's see how this develops. We aren't out of the woods quite yet. BTC has humbled me many times...I don't think I got it right after all...in fact I do not like what the market is doing right now. I'm going to sit on the sidelines until it is more clear. Trade safe.Here is my idea at the present time...down to 54.3k and up ....or the bottom drops out and it heads to the 44k area rather quickly. Right now BTC has shorts and longs uncertain IMO. This would fit a cup and handle with the current formation and hit the typical 38% fib.Bags are being unloaded IMO and then the shorting will begin by smart money.I'm anticipating a large drop in the near future. Let's see if the bulls can keep it going up but I'm not banking on it

This looks to be a descending channel to me but we shall see if it breaks out in which case this idea would be invalidated. After loosing some money, I looked at the other frogs in the pot and they said the water sure is warm. That's when I started to consider that I was being cooked alive and jumped out :) The powers that be are doing a nice job at dropping the price down for a discount. Being patient isn't easy but there should be very nice returns once BTC decides to go up long term IMO. Good luckThey usually drop it down (making it clear) over the next hour so...let's see. Then if we get lucky and they are being predictable a large drop around 8-9EST tomorrow. Surely not right?hmm... fascinating. Will BTC reverse from here or will it keep falling down? Let's seeit looks like the support may hold after all ...idea invalidated. I don't think BTC will just got up however. I think there will be some more sideways and up and down (maybe even a little more down) before a break up. Good luck to you all.well BTC could be driving up pretty hard soon...we shall see. 65k the target?