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Key takeaways from Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium "We intend to hold rates at restrictive level until confident inflation is moving sustainably down to 2%." "Fed will proceed carefully when deciding to hike again or hold steady." "Economic uncertainty calls for agile monetary policy-making." "Fed will decide next rate moves based on data." "Fed is attentive to signs the economy not cooling as expected." "Inflation remains too high, the process of bringing down inflation still has a long way to go, even with more favorable recent readings." "Two months of good data are only the beginning of what we need to build confidence on inflation path." "There is substantial further ground to cover to get back to price stability." "Need sustained progress on goods inflation." "Slowing rents point to slowdown in housing inflation, will continue to watch." "Need some further progress on nonhousing services inflation." "Policy is restrictive but Fed can’t be certain what neutral rate level is." "Fed will not change 2% inflation target. "Fed is mindful monetary policy faces risks on both sides." "Above trend growth could warrant more Fed rate rises." "Getting inflation back to 2% likely requires below trend growth." "Lowering inflation also likely to require softer labor markets." "Signs job market not cooling could also warrant more Fed action." "Seeing evidence inflation is becoming more responsive to labor markets." "July PCE seen at 3.3%, core at 4.3%."

NFP Preview: Forecasts from 9 major banks, moderate downward trend in job growth The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the July jobs report on Friday, August 4 at 12:30 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the forecasts by the economists and researchers of 9 major banks regarding the upcoming employment data. Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to add 200K jobs in July vs. 209K in June, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain steady at 3.6%. Average Hourly Earnings are expected to ease to 4.2% YoY against the former release of 4.4%. Commerzbank We expect 200K new jobs and an unchanged unemployment rate of 3.6%. This would make it clear that the US economy did not slip into recession in July either. However, it is difficult to assess the risk of recession in the coming months on the basis of the labor market, as it is at best a coincident indicator. Certainly, however, the risk of recession would increase if labor incomes stopped growing because this would hit private consumption. The decisive variable here, i.e. the product of employment, average working hours and average hourly wages, is the index of 'aggregate weekly payrolls of all employees'. In June, labor income was still 0.8% higher than in May. Credit Suisse We expect payroll gains to slow slightly further to 200K in July. We expect growth in average hourly earnings to slow marginally to 0.3% MoM, which would cause YoY wage growth to edge lower to 4.2%. TDS We expect gains to have stayed above trend in July, registering a firm 260K increase. Payrolls have clearly lost momentum over the past year, but they remain above levels that are consistent with a gradual rise in the UE rate. In fact, we forecast the UE rate to drop again by a tenth to 3.5% following its unexpected jump to 3.7% in May, as we expect the participation rate to remain largely steady at 62.6% amid still strong job creation. Wage growth likely fell a tenth to 0.3% MoM, dragging the YoY pace lower at 4.2% from 4.4% in June. RBC Economics We expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.6%, and NFP employment to rise 185K in July. Labour markets remain firm, but we look for unemployment to drift higher during the second half of the year. NBF Hiring could have slowed if previously released soft indicators such as S&P Global’s Composite PMI are any guide but this may have been offset by a decrease in the number of layoffs. With these two trends cancelling each other, we expect job creation to have remained roughly unchanged in the month at 215K. The household survey could show a similar gain, something which would translate into a one-tick decline in the unemployment rate to 3.5%. SocGen We look for job growth moderation in July with total NFP climbing by just 190K workers. We believe any gain above 150-175K jobs remains strong. Such a gain, overtime, supports further declines in the unemployment rate. Even with job gains slowing, we expect the unemployment rate to dip back to 3.5% in July from 3.6% in June. The reading in June is a rounded-up figure. We see gains in the number of jobs that imply the unemployment rate could still dip. Wages are likely to rise 0.3% for July. CIBC Initial jobless claims eased over the July survey reference period, suggesting that a healthy 185K jobs could have been created in the US. That’s in line with the climb in participation seen lately in the prime-age working group, which coincides with a drawdown of excess savings. Still strong demand for workers, as evidenced by elevated job openings, suggests that new labor force entrants are being absorbed quickly into vacant positions. The unemployment rate could have remained steady at 3.6%, while a rise in participation also would have left more room for hiring without putting additional upwards pressure on wages, which likely slowed to 0.3% MoM. We’re slightly lower than the consensus on hiring which could result in bond yields falling. Citi After the first downside surprise to NFP growth in 15 months in June, we expect a strong bounce-back in July job growth, with total NFP rising by 290K. We expect average hourly earnings to again rise by 0.4% MoM, although this increase would be close to rounding to 0.3%. Note, however, that the Fed’s preferred measure of labor costs, the employment cost index, showed a modest slowing to 1.0% QoQ in Q2, in data released last week. We also expect the unemployment rate to decline further in July to 3.5%, as the unrounded unemployment rate was already very close to 3.5% at 3.57% unrounded in June with an unchanged participation rate at 62.6%. Wells Fargo We look for a softer, but still robust, addition of 210K new jobs in July as the labor market moves closer into balance. We also look for the unemployment rate to stay flat at 3.6%. Wages appeared to be cooling on trend, but faster-than-expected wage growth in June and upward revisions to prior months have forced a reassessment. Overall, we expect average hourly earnings to increase 0.3% over the month.

Ripple ends 2021 on a strong note by establishing itself in the East despite the ongoing lawsuit in the US against the SEC. XRP price burned brightly in the first half of 2021 but its momentum appears to have vanished in the second half. Regardless of the lackluster performance, Ripple and its native token XRP have a bright future ahead of them in 2022. The cryptocurrency industry flourished in 2021 after going through a grueling year in 2020. The recovery has been nothing short of a miracle, as Bitcoin and many other cryptos hit a new all-time high. The adoption of digital assets, be it in the DeFi, NFT or Metaverse market, has gone through the roof. Unlike previous years, where the institutional involvement was meager, 2021 has seen major companies align with the burgeoning ecosystem of cryptocurrencies. Ripple, in particular, carried its burdens from the last year but has surprisingly risen through it and made amazing headway. While XRP price managed to surge spectacularly in the first half of 2021, the second half saw its momentum dwindle and volatility dry up. Still, 2022 is likely to see Ripple and XRP burn brightly and flourish.

Gold volume m15 is down, price is expected to decrease trend continue to decline in the short term. From Monday to Wednesday there is no important news so on monday 3 Gold can continue to run on news on Thursday and Friday. However, be wary because the Fed interest rate increased by 25 points is positive news for gold but gold suffers adjusted down from the 2000 region down. Long-term think gold will continue to increase, but wait to buy at What price is reasonable? Notice on the H2 frame there are important areas like on built-in graphs On Thursday, the US GDP news is the most influential news to gold price, expect good green news for USD think a lot about the falling gold price. The 6th scenario gold price may pullback then fall correction after the 5th day to keep the high position of gold price gold is expected to return to the 1935 zone, 1923 can be deeper than 1912-1909

Gold price grinds higher amid US Dollar pullback, sluggish sentiment. Sustained trading beyond $1,920 and $1,925 supports keep XAU/USD buyers hopeful. Receding fears of banking crisis, lack of major data/events strengthen bullish bias. Second-tier US data, bond market moves eyed for clear directions as Fed’s 0.25% rate hike seems given. Gold price (XAU/USD) braces for the biggest weekly gains since early November, during a three-week winning streak, even as markets appear easy on Friday after a volatile week. In doing so, the precious metal grinds higher past the $1,925 resistance confluence amid cautious optimism. Adding strength to the bullish bias for XAU/USD could be the downbeat US Treasury bond yields, as well as the global policymakers’ and bankers’ efforts to avoid the return of 2008’s financial crisis. On the same line could be the mixed US data that raise doubts about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) future rate hikes, even if the 25 basis points (bps) of an interest rate increase is almost given. Furthermore, hopes of sustained economic recovery in China, one of the biggest Gold consumers, also keep the XAU/USD buyers hopeful. Alternatively, traders appear less convinced by the latest efforts to defend the global banking sector as the measures appear restrictive. Also, the key central banks turned down the expectations of easy rate hikes and have allegedly blocked information on the causes behind the latest banking rout, which in turn keeps Gold traders on a dicey floor ahead of the next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting. Gold Price: Key levels to watch Our Technical Confluence Detector shows that the Gold price stays comfortable above the immediate key support surrounding $1,925, encompassing Pivot Point one-month R1 and Fibonacci 38.2% on one-day. Also acting as the crucial downside support is the $1,920 mark that includes 10-HMA and the upper band of the Bollinger on the Daily formation. It’s worth noting that Pivot Point one-week R2, around $1,912, acts as the last defense of the XAU/USD bulls. On the north side, the Gold price’s route appears smooth unless hitting the $1,953 hurdle comprising Pivot Point one-week R3. That said, the previous daily high and Pivot Point one-day R2 act as immediate upside hurdles for the XAU/USD price near $1,935 and $1,945 in that order.

AXSUSDT SELL when Price 86$, target 40$ OR sell Day candle close below 70$