TheMarketFlow

The daily bullish trend is valid, with the price closing above the VAH (green dashed line) of the last correction. This daily uptrend is the correction of the weekly downtrend, but has some nice potential. A close below the daily pivot invalidates the idea, targets are marked by the daily fibo levels and the weekly and daily breakdown levels. Bias 🟢 Bullish until Daily Close < 2966.84 Path 3325.00 → 3497.31 → 3633.00 → 3804.02The weekly chart with CVD

The most important skill of a trader is to know when NOT to trade. Stay out of the fight and have a Merry Christmas!🎄

The Market Flow | Oct 26, 2025 Technical Overview Monthly/Weekly: • Both remain in structural expansion phases following a strong higher-timeframe impulse. • Bias continues long above prior pivots, maintaining bullish structure despite current mid-term correction. Daily: • Broke the previous valley (daily pivot) and reached the daily breakout zone at 4040.20 . • This defines the ongoing corrective impulse against the dominant bullish trend. • Price is attempting to correct that impulse, forming a counter-correction structure beneath resistance. H4/H1: • Local wave structure is consolidating after a multi-leg retracement. • The corrective move remains contained between the H4 pivot 4060.68 and EXP 4129.14 . • The green EXP level at 4129.14 represents a clean, untested M15 breakdown —the active long trigger . • Targets align with H1 Fibonacci 138.2–161.8% and the correction 61.8% retracement zone near 4204–4246 . • Momentum fading below the EXP would imply continuation within the corrective leg. Trade Structure & Levels • Bias: Long above 4060.68 • Trigger = Break and sustained hold above 4129.14 (M15 EXP) • Primary Invalidation = 4060.68 (H4 pivot) • Secondary Invalidation = 4054.68 (H1 pivot) • Path → 4129 → 4204 → 4239 → 4246 • Phase: Counter-corrective advance within a higher-timeframe expansion Risk & Event Context • Low probability structure as it represents a correction of the corrective impulse. • Watch intraday reactions at the M15 expansion level—failure to confirm beyond it keeps bias neutral. • Volatility expected around USD macro data. Conclusion XAUUSD is attempting a minor counter-correction within a broader corrective phase. The M15 expansion level at 4129.14 is the structural trigger for continuation toward 4204–4246, but the move remains fragile as long as price trades below the daily breakout pivot. Disclaimer This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a recommendation. Market conditions and price behavior may change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.Since there is a new H1 countertrend, as long as the idea is valid, the trigger moved to the H1 breakdown.H4 closed below invalidation level.

The Market Flow | Oct 23, 2025 Technical Overview H4: • Pivot zone active at 4073–4097 ; structure turned upward. • Price is correcting within the broader daily downtrend phase. • As long as this pivot zone holds, short-term bias remains constructive toward upper resistance. • Next resistance lies at 4220–4246 (H4 supply + daily breakdown area). • Expansion level aligns at 4360 , marking the limit of the countertrend reach. Daily: • The daily structure remains in correction following the prior impulsive decline. • Current advance reflects a correction within that corrective phase — effectively, a secondary retracement. • Breakdown pivot sits at 4040 ; reclaim above that would signal early reaccumulation. Trade Structure & Levels • Bias: Long above 4073 • Trigger = 4097 • Invalidation = 4073 • Path → 4220 → 4246 • Phase: Correction of a corrective wave (short-term recovery within broader downtrend) Risk & Event Context • No imminent macro catalyst; gold volatility subdued after recent impulse. • Next reaction likely around the 4240–4260 region — alignment of structural resistance. Conclusion H4 bias remains long while holding above the 4073–4097 pivot zone. The market is retracing within a corrective context, targeting the daily breakdown and upper H4 resistance. A close below the active pivot would invalidate this recovery structure. Disclaimer This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a recommendation. Market conditions and price behavior may change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

The market is in the primary long expansion phase in a H4/H1 countertrend.There was an H1 break above the last breakdown (lower green level), so another wave up triggers a long trade for me. The target zone is the H1 161.8 in line with the daily 123.6 very close to the daily ATR high.A trigger candle I'm looking for is a Marubozu-like candle at the trigger level, that is a M15 breakdown, in line with the break of the countertrend line.———Orange lines represent impulse bases on major timeframes, signaling the direction and validity of the prevailing trend by acting as key levels where significant momentum originated.Level colors:Daily - blueWeekly - purpleMonthly - magentaH4 - aquaLong trigger - greenShort trigger - redClean (not yet tested) breakdown - dashed greenClean (not yet tested) breakout - dashed red———Stay grounded, stay present.🏄🏼‍♂️<

The market is bullish on every timeframe, and there is a countertrend break at the daily target fibo 100 (daily peak).The next targets are the daily target fibo 138.2-161.8 and the weekly target fibo 200.The trigger for this idea is a significant break above the highest CLEAN M15 breakdown.The idea is valid until the Daily impulse base breaks.———Orange lines represent impulse bases on major timeframes, signaling the direction and validity of the prevailing trend by acting as key levels where significant momentum originated.Level colors:Daily - blueWeekly - purpleMonthly - magentaH4 - aquaLong trigger - greenShort trigger - red———Stay grounded, stay present.🏄🏼‍♂️<

The correction is still valid, and this is a risky bet, but if the price breaks below this M15 breakout significantly, the market my revisit the recent valley.———Orange lines represent impulse bases on major timeframes, signaling the direction and validity of the prevailing trend by acting as key levels where significant momentum originated.Level colors:Daily - blueWeekly - purpleMonthly - magentaH4 - aquaLong trigger - greenShort trigger - red———Stay grounded, stay present.🏄🏼‍♂️<

The market is at the countertrend break, daily fibo levels are the targets.KEEP IT SIMPLE!———Orange lines represent impulse bases on major timeframes, signaling the direction and validity of the prevailing trend by acting as key levels where significant momentum originated.Level colors:Daily - blueWeekly - purpleMonthly - magentaH4 - aquaLong trigger - greenShort trigger - red———Stay grounded, stay present.🏄🏼‍♂️<

WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT BITCOIN?The countertrend of the last corrective impulse is valid until the price closes below H4 impulse base.Within this minor long trend, the market may test the correction fibo 50, but if it's broken, the correction of the primary long trend may go for a test of the correction fibo 50.Of course, the short side offers a much better opportunity, but it's worth to wait for the minor long trend to be broken.———Orange lines represent impulse bases on major timeframes, signaling the direction and validity of the prevailing trend by acting as key levels where significant momentum originated.Level colors:Daily - blueWeekly - purpleMonthly - magentaH4 - aquaLong trigger - greenShort trigger - red———Stay grounded, stay present.🏄🏼‍♂️<

The bullish trend is valid on all the major timeframes, and the market is at the daily target fibo 61.8, already above the last clean breakdown - the border of the expansion phase.Daily chart:If this small countertrend is broken (at the trigger zone), the first target is the daily peak (target fibo 100).———Orange lines represent impulse bases on major timeframes, signaling the direction and validity of the prevailing trend by acting as key levels where significant momentum originated.Level colors:Daily - blueWeekly - purpleMonthly - magentaH4 - aquaLong trigger - greenShort trigger - red———Stay grounded, stay present.🏄🏼‍♂️<