TheDots

H&S + Slight Bearish div + Double sell signal See chart - I placed short @ 30.5k with SL 31.5 and TP 26. In addition, we see massive call skew on the S&P, Fear&Greed index @ Extremely bullish etc - I have bought VIX futures as well btw* DYOR. NFA. Never take the word of others as a given, And never listen to a word of anyone without skin in the Game. I wish you all well.

Hi, folks!It´s been a very long time since my last post, as there have been very little few concrete signs of any direction.Now, however, my hypothesis is that we´ll see large bouts of volatility in the time to come - where my bias leans towards a long position:- Bollinger bands are the tightest we have seen since the beginning of the covid rally in 2020- We seem to have solid support around the 18-19k level- The long-term trend line since the beginning of the crash crosses the support line around this time- We have had three consecutive volume-based buy signals that did not trigger a bounce- Prices are now @ the lower bolliger band in the very tight channel- We see a massive bullish divergence in 1D for both MACD and RSII am placing a long position, but remember that none can predict the future.NFA.DYOR.Never take advice from someone without skin in the game - and never take the advice of others as given.I wish you all well!

I am posting a short term trade idea that I am willing gamble on myself - although I am bearish for risk-on assets in the short-to-intermediate term.DYOR.NFA.Never take the word of others for granted - and never take advise from someone without skin in the game!I wish you all well :)

Hi folks!So, I was right about my last post (see linked), so let us see if the buy signal is real!Just posting what I see as a very clear technical buy signal if you consider BTCUSD in isolation of the general market:- Testing massive trendline since last year.- Retesting broken bearish trendline.- Massive bullish div on the 1D- Money Flow index will post buy signal any moment.I believe the 41k-40k is worth a punt (given that the stock market doesn´t collapse today though), and it seems we will get a test of the 40k level (exactly in the cross) very shortly.DYOR.NFA.I wish you all well! :)

Hi folks!For the record, I still believe that we will have a crash in most financial markets in not-so-long time.However, the timing is extremely unpredictable (at least for me), so I trust more on the technicals than i normally do these days (that is, because the markets are crazy these days, so I do not trust fundamentals to matter until the crash): Everyone acts according to the Bigger Fool Theory!My view of a potential crash does not mean that we cannot see an even higher level of frenzy before the (rather inevitable) crash,so I might be willing to make a punt on a short-term BTC-rally (albeit with a SL).However, the market seems too unclear to make a punt right now, so I´ll wait for clarity.From a technical perspective, we all know that:- The broken trend line has yet to be retested.- The wick down to 42k is yet to be filled,- A MACD+RSI (RSI not shown in chart) divergence is in the brewing.- The money flow indicator looks to be sneaking down to a buy level if we have a dip.If we have another dump towards the 42-40k level, everyone of these buy signals will likely trigger, and that is when I will make a punt.If the market runs away before that, I am fine with it - you should not make a bet if you cannot understand the why.DYOR.NFA.Never take the words of others as a given - and never take advise from someone without skin in the game.I wish you all well :)

Hi folks!Although I am still of the strong belief that the entire financial bubble will pop eventually (still holding on to some of my VIX futures), I do not trust fundamentals one bit right now, so I have to duck down into the dirty world of relying on sentiment prediction alone.The best bet in that regard seems to be the DOT (paid for in U.S. Dollars) - both due to the fact that things happen very fast in the Polkadot ecosystem such that it might be reasonable to hold during a crash, and that the T.A. seems favourable in terms of making a punt (MACD cross + div, RSI div (not shown), MFI buy singal, decreasing vol on downturn, might burst downtrend today).DYOR.NFA.I wish you all well!Merry Christmas btw :)

Hi folks!After seing the mad reaction of the tapering today (obviously people believe inflation will outrun interest rates and then make no negative impact on the economy along the way!),I am going full T.A. (=MAD) and placing a long on DOT with my profits from my VIX trades. It is important to say that I strongly believe in a massive crash in financial markets soon, so this is just a very short-sighted punt based on nothing but T.A.T.A. picture is clear in dot: MFI turned green at the same time as we have a golden cross on the 1D in DOTUSDT.My bet is 5x DOTUSDT perp futures at 26.6 with SL 24.9 and TP 45 (probably closing this or get liquidated before 45).DYOR.NFA.I wish you all well!

Hi folks!First - as I like to update on my positions (because you should never trust anyone who do not put their money where their mouth is - and Tradingview should definitely have a "Proof of Position"-feature:I got liquidated on one of my shorts (46.3k, SL 52k, TP 30k) - equivalent to a 0.9% loss of my total free equity portfolio. I still hold the (49.5k, SL 56k, TP 30k) short and added an even larger (52.5k, SL 56k, TP 30k) short. I am currently short BTCUSD for about 2.5% of my free equity portfolio.In my opinion, we are in a massive financial bubble that will eventually burst - even from a Black Swan or (most likely) due to (possibly some combination of) very highly probable factors such as liquidity decrease and less complacency. This has - as you mave have seen from my ideas for the past couple of months - convinced me that the best thing you can to is to sit it out, bet on volatility and possibly enter some short positions is a possibility arises, although with a proper risk management strategy (see the Kelly Criterion). Now, as I have stated multiple times, I am mostly trading VIX futures these days in the since that I buy big amounts of short term future contracts (you can do this through ETFs such as VIXY/VXX etc for simplicity, but you should definitely understand the math before you jump into this - which holds for all investments). However, the grim technicals in BTCUSD - especially the volume divergence - has made me enter short positions for the last month. After the fact, you may say I was too early or placed a too tight SL on my first short, but this is a probabilistic game and you lose sometimes - also, the tight SL is often a bad idea in crypto markets unless you are a scalp trader. Also, if you have the opportunity to enter volatility contracts for a good price (not binance vol options!), that might be better than shorting.Now, I have marked concurrent divergences in RSI and MACD on the daily as buy (long)/sell (short) signals with a price range until the next opposite indicator. As you can see, this simple indicator has yielded massive gains at all signals this year (given that you held the entire position until an opposite signal appeared, which is not recommended due to the change in expected value, and also required you to hold a loose SL at some occasions). This indicator - especially coupled with a volume divergence (which is arguably the most important) - hold up very good historically in both directions. Just check for yourself if you do not believe me.We also saw a first rejection off the what was the support line of the broken ascending wedge today, and the singal is confirmed on up until 4h - if this continues to hold throuhgout the dayly candle, it is another important indicator that supports the sell signal based on the stated triple DIV.For the record, I am a huge believer in blockchain technology, and I also own some staked DOT and ETH. I also plan to place the potential profit of my shorts and/or volatility bets in crypto (in addition to real assets)if I am right - I just think this is a terrible risk/reward environment where the expected value is higher on the short side than the long side in both the U.S. stock market, bond markets and crypto. DYOR.NFA.Never take the words of others as a given, and never take advise from one some without skin in the game.I wish you all well :)Note: The two grey price range indicators to the right in the chart are predictions - i.e. what one stands to make from a hypothetical entry at the sell signal until my TP at 30k*...The rightmost grey arrow is also wrong - the potential profit should be higher, as the arrow should start at apx. 52.5k*

Hi folks! For what its Worth, I am still bearish - mostly because of the state of all financial markets, but also a clear bearish technical picture which we have seen since the end of july. I am still holding my shorts with TP 30k from 46.3k/49.5k with SL 52k/56k. For the record, I have also stacked up 40% of my portfolio with long VIX contracts for september and october.DYOR.NFA.Never take the word of others as a given, and never take advise from someone without skin in the Game.I wish you all well.

Just see my linked posts - I won't repeat myself again (except for the broken trend line).Still SL 52/56k TP30k from 46300/49500 for me. DYOR.NFA.Never take the word of other as a given - and never take advise from someone without skin in the Game.I wish you all well!