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Bitcoin has been consolidating in a tight range between $110K and $105K over the past two weeks. This weekend’s attempted breakout stalled out quickly! BTC was rejected at the Point of Control (POC) of the previous range and came close to the 0.786 retracement of the recent drop. 🧠 Reminder: Weekend pumps are notorious for being unreliable, especially without strong volume. Now, the charts point toward something much more structured — a potential Gartley harmonic pattern forming, with multiple levels of confluence suggesting the next key decision zone is just around the corner. 🧩 Gartley Completion Zone: $106,290–$106,400 This price zone is loaded with confluence: ✅ 0.786 Fib retracement of the XA leg sits at $106,290 ✅ 1.0 trend-based Fib extension of the BC leg is at $106,370 ✅ Anchored VWAP from all-time high aligns precisely at $106,370 ✅ VAL (Value Area Low) sits at the same level ✅ Imbalance (Fair Value Gap) from earlier price inefficiency lies in this exact region All of this stacks up into a high-probability reaction zone. 🎓 Educational Insight: How to Trade a Gartley Harmonic The Gartley pattern is one of the most powerful harmonic setups — a structured form of retracement and extension that captures exhaustion before reversals. Here's how it works: 🔹 XA: Impulse leg 🔹 AB: Retracement of 61.8% of XA 🔹 BC: Retraces 38.2%–88.6% of AB 🔹 CD: Extends to 78.6% retracement of XA and aligns with a 1.0–1.272 Fib extension of BC 🟢 Point D is the entry zone — your reversal opportunity. 📉 Stop-loss sits just below invalidation (Point X). 💰 Targets usually lie at 0.382 and 0.618 of the CD leg. 🔎 Why It Works: It traps late traders and captures price exhaustion at natural Fibonacci ratios. Combined with other tools — like VWAP, liquidity zones, and order flow — it becomes a high-conviction strategy. These patterns are most effective on higher timeframes like 4H or daily. _________________________________ 💬 If you found this helpful, drop a like and comment! Want breakdowns of other charts? Leave your requests below.Bitcoin Update – July 8, 2025 Applying Fibonacci retracement to the line chart structure reveals some solid reactions: 🔹 0.786 Fib Retracement → Price reacted perfectly at $109675, confirming local resistance and stalling further upside. 🔹 POC Bounce → Strong and clean bounce off the Point of Control (POC) at $107535, highlighting it as a key demand zone. 🔹 VAL Confluence → The Value Area Low (VAL) sits right at $106443.5, aligning precisely with the lower 0.786 retracement from the previous leg — adding confluence to this zone as a potential liquidity sweep. 🔍 Summary: 🔹 Structure remains range-bound 🔹 Loss of $107.5K could target the VAL/Fib confluence at $106.4K for liquidity Market respecting levels with precision — watch how price behaves near the edges of value and Fibs.

RAY marked its bottom in December 2022 at just $0.133, entering a prolonged accumulation phase that lasted nearly a year. Then, in late 2023, it broke out into an explosive bull run, skyrocketing +6421% over 756 days and peaking at an impressive $8.70. This run completed a full five-wave Elliott Wave structure. After topping out, RAY dropped -84% down to $1.388 — likely marking the Wave A correction. A strong relief rally followed into the $4 region before facing rejection at the yearly VWAP, possibly completing Wave B. Now, all signs point toward us being in the final Wave C of the larger corrective structure. So, where could Wave C bottom out? 🔍 Fibonacci Confluence Zones (Log Scale) Let’s assess the key levels with log-scaled Fibonacci tools: 🔹 Fib Retracement (from $0.133 low to $8.7 high): The 0.618 fib retracement lies at $0.658 🔹 Trend-Based Fib Extension (Wave A → B projection for Wave C): 1.0 TBFE sits at $0.617 ✅ These two levels align nearly perfectly, giving us a strong confluence zone between $0.62 and $0.66 Additional Confluences Anchored VWAP Bands: The 0.618 VWAP band multiplier also aligns with this $0.6 zone Liquidity Perspective: This level would wipe out long positions built over the past 550 days — clearing and potentially resetting the market 🚨 Fair Value Trend Model (FV Trend Model): According to my Fair Value Trend Model indicator, the fair value for RAY currently sits around $0.78 — right in line with the broader confluence zone. This model uses log-log regression to estimate Bitcoin’s and other assets’ fair-value over time. 👉 Feel free to use the indicator Just head over to my profile, click on the “Scripts” tab, and you can add the Fair Value Trend Model to your charts to experiment with it yourself. Together, these technical elements form a compelling high-probability zone for long setups around $0.6–$0.8. 💡 Educational Insight — Why 0.618 is a Critical Fib Level In Elliott Wave theory and harmonic trading, the 0.618 retracement is known as the "Golden Ratio" — often serving as a magnet for price during corrections. When paired with a 1.0 trend-based fib extension, it can mark exhaustion zones where Wave C concludes. 🔭 Summary: What’s Next for RAY? Potential bottom zone: $0.61–$0.78 Watch for reversal signals like bullish candlestick patterns, volume spikes, or divergences A drop to this zone would represent a -60% drawdown from current levels Remember: High-probability setups don’t come every day — patience is your edge Set alerts. Stay prepared. _________________________________ 💬 If you found this helpful, drop a like and comment! Want breakdowns of other charts? Leave your requests below.

Bitcoin has been locked in a range for the past 45 days, clinging above the critical psychological support at $100K. But cracks are starting to show… Every bounce from the key level at $102,430 has been weakening — and now, for the first time, we’re breaking cleanly below it. Things are starting to tilt bearish. So the question is… ⛏️ Will 100K be tested next? 🔍 Key Support Zone: $97.7K–$96.9K Using the Fibonacci retracement from the swing low at $74.5K to the recent ATH, the 0.382 retracement lands at $97,655 — just below the $100K mark. But there’s more… Here’s why the zone between $97.7K and $96.9K is crucial: 0.382 Fibonacci retracement: A common pullback level in strong uptrends. Anchored VWAP from $74.5K: Currently sitting around $96.9K, tracking cumulative volume-weighted average price — a key level. Daily Order Block: Sits right at $96,887, aligning with the VWAP and reinforcing the area as demand-rich. 1.272 Fibonacci extension: From the previous move — providing another layer of confluence. Fair Value Gap (FVG): The imbalance lies right in this zone. Price often fills these before continuing trend. All of this stacks up to a high-probability long setup. 🕵️‍♂️ What to Do Now? Set alerts at $100K and watch for a reaction. If price slices through, shift focus to the 0.382 Fib — monitor price action closely for signs of a reversal. The first clean test of this zone could present a solid long — but as usual don’t trade blindly. Wait for confirmation. _________________________________ 💬 If you found this helpful, drop a like and comment! Want breakdowns of other charts? Leave your requests below.🚨 Bitcoin Market Update – June 23, 2025 BTC retested the key level at $102429.56 and got rejected — providing a clean, low-risk short opportunity. Price dropped swiftly back to the golden ratio (0.666 Fib), which aligned with the FVG (Fair Value Gap) and the psychological $100K support → a confluence zone. BTC reacted sharply from the support zone with increasing volume, showing bullish interest. Now, following the bounce, BTC once again retested the key level a level we've been watching closely. We saw a Swing Failure Pattern (SFP) here, where price swept above the previous high and immediately reversed offering a clean short opportunity. ⏳ Eyes on this level for potential rejection or reclaim.

After a strong rally back in 2024, ONDO topped at $2.15 — completing a clear 5-wave impulsive move. Since then, price has entered a prolonged downtrend, dropping over -70%, with no confirmed reversal signs yet. We’re now trading around a critical zone near $0.70. So the question is: where’s the next potential bottom? 🔎 Technical Breakdown: 📍 VWAP Breakdown: The yellow anchored VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) has been lost — a clear sign of market weakness. This VWAP was previously acting as support but has now flipped to resistance, which often precedes continued downside. 📌 Key Support Zone: $0.80–$0.70 was a structural support area that has now been broken — another bearish sign. 📉 Fibonacci Confluence: Taking the structure and applying a Fibonacci retracement, the 0.786 retracement lies at $0.4828 — let’s round that to a critical $0.50 zone. This level is important for several reasons: Liquidity rests at a previous key low at $0.50128 Anchored VWAP Band (0.618 multiplier) aligns with the same area The 8/1 Gann Fan also intersects around this zone All roads lead to the $0.50 level as a potential high-probability reversal zone. A bounce from here — especially with volume confirmation or reversal candlesticks etc. — would be a signal worth watching. 💡 Educational Insight: Importance of 0.786–0.886 Fibonacci Zone + VWAP While many focus on the 0.618 retracement, bear markets often go deeper. The 0.786–0.886 zone is where emotional exhaustion kicks in — traders give up, liquidity pools build, and smart money steps in. Combining this with Anchored VWAP adds precision: VWAP reflects where the “average buyer” is positioned. When price reaches confluence with both deep fibs and VWAP fib bands, you have a statistically powerful setup for reversals. 🚨 Note: These zones are not automatic buy levels — watch for confirmation signs before entering. 🛎️ Set your alerts, stay patient, and as always let the trade come to you. _________________________________ 💬 If you found this helpful, drop a like and comment! Want breakdowns of other charts? Leave your requests below.

SUI has been respecting technical levels with remarkable consistency. After bouncing from the $2.8467 low, it surged sharply — completing a clean Cypher Harmonic Pattern. This led to a high-probability short setup at the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement (Point D) around $3.5573. 🎯 Trade Setup Breakdown Pattern: Cypher Harmonic Entry (Point D): $3.5573 (0.786 retracement of XC) Target: $3.1191 (0.618 retracement of CD) Stop-Loss: Above Point X The 0.618 fib retracement of the CD leg coincides with a significant key low from May 6, 2025, adding structural confluence. This is an ideal level to monitor for absorption, reaction, or potential reversal behaviour. 🧠 Educational Insight: How to Trade Harmonic Patterns Like a Pro Harmonic patterns aren't just visually appealing — they represent high-probability setups based on market structure, Fibonacci geometry, and behavioural cycles. The most critical part of every harmonic pattern? You enter at Point D. Whether the pattern is bullish or bearish, Point D is your trigger: In bearish patterns (like this Cypher), you short from Point D. In bullish patterns, you long from Point D. This works because Point D marks the exhaustion of the corrective leg, where trapped traders and liquidity often sit. The structure often aligns with supply or demand zones, order blocks, or FVGs (Fair Value Gaps). 💡 Important: Harmonic patterns are most effective on higher timeframes — 4H and above. On lower timeframes, noise increases and reliability drops significantly. For clean execution and meaningful structure, stay with mid to high timeframes. Here’s how to trade it effectively: ✅ Wait for the full pattern to form — don’t front-run ✅ Use fib levels and structure confluence to validate Point D ✅ Use order flow tools (like Exocharts) to confirm absorption or volume shift ✅ Enter on Point D with your stop-loss just beyond X ✅ Take profits at common retracement levels like the 0.382 or 0.618 of the CD leg Patience is key. Harmonic traders wait for the market to complete the cycle — then strike with a plan. 📌 Final Thoughts SUI is delivering clean harmonic respect, and this setup is no exception. Whether you're already short or waiting for further confirmation, keep an eye on volume, liquidity zones, and reaction levels around $3.1191. If this zone holds, it may serve as a pivot for the next move. Pattern. Precision. Patience. That's how you catch high-probability trades like this. _________________________________ 💬 If you found this helpful, drop a like and comment! Want breakdowns of other charts? Leave your requests below.📚 The Cypher Harmonic Pattern — How to Trade It Effectively The Cypher is one of the most reliable advanced harmonic patterns and to be honest, it’s my favourite pattern to trade... when combined with confluence like order flow or liquidity zones, it becomes a real weapon. It offers clear risk-to-reward setups and works best on higher timeframes like the 4H, Daily, or Weekly. Its structure helps traders anticipate high-probability reversals using Fibonacci precision. 🔷 Cypher Pattern Structure: The Rules The Cypher pattern consists of 5 points: X, A, B, C, and D — with very specific Fibonacci conditions. - XA: Initial leg. - AB: Retraces 0.382 to 0.618 of XA. - BC: Extends to at least 1.272 but not more than 1.414 of XA. - CD (Final Leg): Retraces 0.786 of XC — this is the trade entry. 🧠 How to Trade It Trade Direction: You trade the reversal at Point D: - If the pattern is bearish (XABCD slopes upward), you short from Point D. - If the pattern is bullish (XABCD slopes downward), you long from Point D. 📍 Entry: - Enter at the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the XC leg. This is the ideal Point D zone. 📌 Stop-Loss (Invalidation): - Place the stop-loss just above/below the X point (the origin of the pattern). - If price breaches X with a confirmed close or strong breakout, the pattern is invalid. 💰 Take Profit Targets: Standard targets are Fibonacci retracements of the CD leg: - TP1: 0.382 of CD - TP2: 0.618 of CD - TP3: Point A - TP4 (optional): Point C or trailing beyond if momentum builds These targets offer high R:R setups — often 1:3 to 1:6 depending on structure. 🟢 When Is the Pattern Considered “Completed”? A harmonic pattern is considered completed when: ✅ Price hits the minimum 0.382 retracement of the CD leg, preferably reaches the 0.618 retracement or Point A ✅ Price shows reaction (rejection, reversal structure, or SFP) at Point D Once these criteria are met, the trade idea is fulfilled, and new structure should be awaited. 📌 Note: Never hold onto a harmonic trade after targets are met or invalidation is hit. Harmonics are precise, and overstaying reduces your edge. 🎓 Pro Tips Always use confluence: combine harmonics with order flow (e.g. SFP, volume spikes), support/resistance, VWAP, or liquidity zones for extra confirmation. -> Don’t force patterns — let them build naturally. Best traded in strong trending or corrective phases!✅ Cypher Harmonic Completed — What Comes Next for SUI? The Cypher Harmonic pattern on SUI has officially played out. Price reached both of its primary downside targets — the 0.618 retracement of the CD leg and Point A — marking the successful completion of the pattern. 🧠 What This Means: - The 0.618 retracement of CD (~$3.1191) was hit. 🚫 No Reaction at 0.618 CD = Weak Bullish Interest. The failure to bounce at the 0.618 fib (CD) — typically a high-probability take-profit zone or long entry — signals that bulls were either sidelined or outpaced by heavy sell pressure. - Point A was also taken out, confirming full pattern completion. - The 0.886 Fibonacci retracement level acted as support, aligning perfectly with the 1.618 trend-based Fibonacci extension at $2.928 — a key confluence zone. This pattern has done its job — providing a well-defined short setup from the 0.786 fib entry (~$3.5573) and delivering a high R:R opportunity. 🔍 Time to Shift Focus: What’s the Next Setup? Now that the Cypher is complete, it’s crucial to zoom out and reassess the chart structure: 1. Are we seeing signs of accumulation or continuation to the downside? 2. Is a new harmonic pattern forming (e.g., potential Gartley, Bat, or Butterfly)? 3. What do higher timeframe fib levels suggest? This is the moment where patient traders look for new structure — not force entries. 📚 Trading Insight: Harmonic patterns give structure to price — but once they’re played out, the edge is gone. Never cling to a pattern after its targets are fulfilled. Instead, let the market reset and form new opportunities. This is how you stay objective and consistent.🔍 The Next Move — Mapping the New Setup Following the sell-off, price found support precisely at the 0.886 retracement of CD ($2.928), in perfect confluence with the 1.618 trend-based Fib extension — highlighting a reaction zone. From here, the market has two key possibilities: 🔄 Scenario A: Relief Rally Before Lower (more likely) A short-term bounce toward the $3.14–$3.15 area, aligning with: • 0.5 fib of the last leg down • 0.786 trend-based fib retest • S/R zone → This could provide a lower high and potential short opportunity back into the $2.70s region, where the 0.618 fib of the full swing sits (~$2.7035). 🔄 Scenario B: Immediate Continuation Lower (less likely) If price fails to reclaim $3.05–$3.10 convincingly, we may see continuation toward the $2.70 area without a relief bounce. This aligns with: • 0.618 fib at $2.7035 • Unfilled liquidity pocket • Possible bullish re-entry zone if confirmed 📚 Harmonic Recap: Why This Matters Harmonic patterns like the Cypher provide clear rules: • You trade Point D — not before, not after • TP is typically the 0.618 retracement of CD • TP can be Point A or deeper extensions This structure played out beautifully and has now ended. What comes next is an entirely new trade setup — so adjust your bias accordingly. 💬 Keep Watching: → Price behaviour at $3.14–$3.15 → If price fails to bounce, watch for buys near $2.70 Stay reactive, not predictive. The best setups come to those who wait.🚨 SUI Update — Precision Rejection & Reaction SUI followed through exactly as mapped out. ✅ Price rallied into confluence resistance at the 0.786 Trend-Based Fib Extension (TBFE) and the 0.5 Fibonacci Retracement (FR), offering a short entry. 🎯 It tapped the 0.786 TBFE to the $ and rejected, dropping -15% into the golden pocket target zone ($2.7). 🔁 The drop found support right at the 0.618 FR, where we saw an immediate bounce, validating the level as a key reaction zone. Structure, confluence, and fibs all aligned perfectly. Let’s now watch how price behaves around the 0.618 level for the next possible play.🧩 SUI Fractal Replay: The Market’s Memory in Action SUI has just completed a fascinating pattern — replaying its own previous structure in nearly perfect fractal form. If you look at the chart, you’ll notice that the left side shows the original price action from early June, which led into a sharp breakdown. That structure has now essentially been “copied and pasted” by the market, forming the same distribution range, fakeouts, and dump — just on a smaller scale. → Both fractals ended with a rejection at the 0.786 Fibonacci Each time, this level acted as resistance, producing a reversal. In the current fractal, price dropped -15% from the 0.786 mark toward the 0.618 fib retracement. Markets tend to repeat patterns of behaviour — not because of magic — but because they are driven by the same psychology, liquidity dynamics, and order flow that underpin all price movement. This is the power of fractals. 🎯 Technical Summary: * Clear fractal duplication of the June structure * Major rejections both times at the 0.786 Fibonacci level * Price dropped directly into the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement * Confluence between structure, fib levels, and behaviour 🧠 Educational Insight: Why Fractals Matter in Trading Fractals are recurring price patterns that repeat at different scales and timeframes. They reflect the self-similar nature of markets — where crowd behaviour and liquidity dynamics often unfold in predictable ways, regardless of the asset or timeframe. By identifying fractals, traders gain a powerful edge: ✔ They help anticipate future price moves based on past structure ✔ They enhance timing and confidence in entries/exits ✔ They reveal market rhythm and psychological zones (liquidity hunts, consolidations, reversals) In this case, SUI mirrored its prior structure almost 1:1. Recognising such patterns gives you early signals — especially when they align with other technicals. Fractals are clues from the market’s memory — patterns repeat, and those who see them first usually profit most.

After a clean drop that nearly tagged the psychological $100K level, Bitcoin printed a Swing Failure Pattern (SFP) — sweeping the lows and snapping back with strength. That bounce wasn’t just a reaction — it was a liquidity reclaim. Now, price structure is shaping into a potential Inverted Head & Shoulders — a classic reversal pattern often forming before a bullish continuation. 🔍 Key Level to Watch: $106,694.63 — This recent key high was just taken out. If we see rejection here (SFP), it could set up a high-probability low-risk short opportunity. 🎯 Short Trade Idea (Only on SFP confirmation): Entry: After price sweeps $106,694.63 and shows rejection Stop-Loss: Above wick high (e.g., ~$107.4K) TP Zones: $103.5K and $101.7K R:R: ~1:7 ✅ Cleaner setup with confluence from structure and liquidity — high probability if confirmed. 📚 Educational Insight: Why SFPs Work So Well SFPs (Swing Failure Patterns) are some of the most powerful setups in trading because they: Trap breakout traders Sweep liquidity and reverse quickly Offer clear invalidation (wick high/low) Allow for tight stop-loss and high R:R setups Using SFPs in conjunction with key highs/lows, volume, and structure dramatically increases your edge. 📈 Why Order Flow Is Crucial for SFPs 1. See the Trap Form in Real Time SFPs are essentially traps — price sweeps a key level, sucks in breakout traders, and then reverses. Order flow tools let you see this happen: A spike in market buys above resistance Followed by a lack of follow-through (no new buyers) And then an aggressive absorption or reversal (selling pressure hits) Without order flow, this is all hidden in the candles. 2. Confirm Liquidity Sweeps with Delta & CVD Watch for a delta spike or Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) divergence — a clear sign that aggressive buyers are getting absorbed. This gives you confirmation that the sweep failed, not just a random wick. 3. Tight Entries with Confidence When you see actual trapped volume or liquidation clusters at the SFP level, you can enter tighter with conviction — because you're not guessing, you’re reacting to actual intent and failure in the market. 4. Early Warning System for Reversal or Continuation If the SFP fails to trigger a reversal (e.g. buyers step back in with strength), you’ll see it early in the flow — and can quickly reassess. 🧠 Bottom Line: Order flow lets you stop guessing and start seeing the actual fight between buyers and sellers. Combine it with SFPs, and you're not just trading price — you're trading intent. That edge is huge. _________________________________ 💬 If you found this helpful, drop a like and comment! Want breakdowns of other charts? Leave your requests below.

Since bottoming on November 21, 2022, Bitcoin has embarked on a remarkable bull run, rising +623.5% over 927 days and reaching a new all-time high (ATH) of ~112K. When compared to the previous bull cycle, spanning 1061 days and producing a +2086% gain, this current rally shows signs of diminishing returns, a typical behaviour of maturing markets. Traders now face a critical question: has Bitcoin peaked for this cycle, or is another surge toward ~120K+ possible? Historical Echoes: Elliott Wave Comparison The 2018–2021 bull market formed a five-wave Elliott structure. That cycle ended with a -77.5% correction. The current cycle similarly traces out a completed five-wave advance from the $15.5K low, suggesting we may now be in a corrective phase. Current hypothesis: Bitcoin is in Wave B of an ABC correction, with Wave C potentially targeting $64K–$70K. Harmonic Confirmation: Cypher Sigma Pattern A refined harmonic formation, I call it the Cypher Sigma Harmonic Pattern (CSHP) and it has proven highly effective in volatile assets like Bitcoin. It differs from the classic Cypher by: BC projection: 1.07–1.136 of XA (vs. 1.272–1.414) CD retracement: 0.786–0.886 of XC BD extension: 1.272–1.618 of BC (not present in traditional Cypher but often targets 1.272-2.0) In 2022, this pattern predicted the bottom near $16K. Currently, another Cypher Sigma is potentially forming, pointing to a possible correction to ~$64K. This target aligns with historical level (the 2021 ATH zone) and represents a possible -40% pullback. Multi-Layered Technical Confluence Pitchfork Resistance: Bitcoin rejected the upper resistance (Fib 1.0–1.136 zone) Pitchfork Golden Pocket Support: ~$64K matches the golden pocket and high-liquidity area Fibonacci Circles: Rejection precisely at the 1.618–1.65 circle arc (~$112K) Speed Fan 0.618: Key structural support intersects projected retracement zone Previous 2021 ATH Together, these tools strongly support the hypothesis of a macro top forming. Fair Value Trend Model (FVTM) – New Indicator As part of ongoing research into Bitcoin’s long-term valuation, I developed the Fair Value Trend Model—a logarithmic regression-based indicator tailored for Bitcoin. Here is an example on the monthly timeframe. Key Features: Computes a log-log regression: ln(Price) vs ln(Days since inception) Yields a power-law growth curve: F(t) = C · [d(t)]^b Includes dynamic channel bands at user-defined percentage offsets Projects the trend forward in time with linear extrapolation I have just freshly published this indicator for free on TradingView. Visit my profile, add it to your chart, and explore how Bitcoin consistently revisits its fair value in bear markets before launching new macro waves. Use Cases: Identify overextensions above the fair value channel Spot mean-reversion setups near the lower channel band Gauge long-term trend continuation via slope and forecast The indicator is best used on daily, weekly and monthly charts, and it supports both all-time and rolling-window modes. Educational Insight: The Fair Value Trend Model isn’t just a tool! It's a lens to view the long-term rhythm of the Bitcoin market. By understanding where the fair value lies, you gain the clarity to separate short-term volatility from long-term opportunity. Every great trader starts with a desire to understand. If you're learning, experimenting, and observing patiently—you’re on the right path. Let this model be your guide through the noise. Trust the math, respect the cycles, and never stop refining your edge. Study day and swing trading, improve your technical and psychological skills, and wait patiently for high-probability trade setups, whether short-, medium-, or long-term. Being patient is key. Psychological Insight: Mastery Over Impulse The greatest returns favour the patient. Traders who ignored the noise in 2022 and accumulated around $16K were rewarded exponentially. As Bitcoin potentially enters a correction, the same principle applies: monitor, learn, and prepare—not panic. Top-tier traders execute based on structure, not emotion. This cycle will reward those who: -> Study multi-timeframe confluences Outlook: Bearish Retracement, Bullish Opportunity While a push to $120K+ is possible, the confluence of Elliott Wave, harmonic patterns, and macro tools suggest a potential 40% retracement into ~$64K by end of 2025/early 2026. This aligns with historical patterns and may offer a great buying opportunity. This cycle isn’t about catching the exact top—it’s about navigating it intelligently. Use tools that reflect structural value, not just reactive price action. Combine the Fair Value Trend Model with other tools to gain clarity. Most importantly: remain curious, remain disciplined. Happy trading. Thanks for reading =) stay sharp, stay patient, and keep evolving 🚀 _________________________________ If you found this helpful, leave a like and comment below! Got requests for the next technical analysis? Let me know.

BTC continues to chop in a tight range near its previous all-time high. While price action may appear messy at first glance, traders using a combination of structure, Fibonacci levels, and order flow tools are spotting clean opportunities — especially through Swing Failure Patterns (SFPs). 🔍 What Just Happened? Bitcoin recently rejected from the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level — a classic reaction zone. What made this move powerful was the SFP that formed at that level. Price swept above a prior high, triggering breakout buys, only to reverse. This type of move traps late longs and offers an ideal short entry. 🧠 Educational Insight: Why SFPs Are One of the Best Setups SFPs (Swing Failure Patterns) are some of the highest-probability trades you can take for a few key reasons: 1️⃣ Liquidity-driven: They form where stop losses cluster — above highs or below lows — creating a magnet for price. 2️⃣ Clean invalidation: The wick high/low gives a natural stop-loss level, keeping risk tight. 3️⃣ Fast reaction: Once trapped traders are forced to exit, price often reverses sharply — giving you strong follow-through. 4️⃣ Confirmable with order flow: Using tools like Exocharts, you can see aggressive longs/shorts piling in just before the reversal. This adds conviction to the setup. 📏 Current Confluence: Rejection from the 0.786 Fib retracement SFP confirmed on high volume 1:1 trend-based Fib extension sits at ~$105,410 That level also lines up with the 0.666 Fib retracement Anchored VWAP around $105K Liquidity pool right at that zone too — a likely magnet 🎯 Trade Idea: Short triggered at the SFP wick, stop just above it. First target: the 1:1 extension near $105.4K. Risk-reward is excellent with high probability if price continues to unwind late longs. ✅ Key Takeaway: In ranges like this, you don’t need to guess direction — you need to react to structure. SFPs give you that edge. When paired with real-time tools like Exocharts and anchored VWAPs, these trades become sniper entries rather than coin flips. Let the market show its hand — and trade the reaction, not the prediction. 📌 Summary: This is how you avoid overtrading in chop: wait for key levels, watch how price reacts, and let trapped traders create the move. If BTC revisits the $105K region, it’s a major area to watch for reaction — or to take partials if you’re in a short. The best trades come from patience + precision. _________________________________ If you found this helpful, leave a like and comment below! Got requests for the next technical analysis? Let me know.

Bitcoin is approaching a critical moment and the signs are everywhere. After more than 900 days of steady bull market growth, BTC now flirts with all-time highs (ATH) while momentum stalls, liquidity thins, and emotions run hot. You might be asking: Are we nearing the cycle top? Is now the time to de-risk or double down? What comes next? This isn’t just a question of price. It’s about timing, structure, and psychology. In this analysis, we’ll break down Bitcoin’s historical cycles, the current macro structure, the hidden signals from Fibonacci time extensions, and how to think like a professional when the crowd is chasing FOMO. Let’s dive in. 📚 Educational Insight: Understanding Bitcoin Cycles Bitcoin doesn’t move in straight lines, it moves in cycles. Bull markets grow slowly, then explode. Bear markets fall fast, then grind sideways. These rhythms are driven by halving events, liquidity expansions, and most importantly: human emotion. Here’s what history tells us: Historical Bull Markets: 2009–2011: 540 days (+5,189,598%) 2011–2013: 743 days (+62,086%) 2015–2017: 852 days (+12,125%) 2018–2021: 1061 days (+2,108%) 2022–Present: 917 days so far (+623%) Bear Market Durations: 2011: 164 days (-93.73%) 2013–2015: 627 days (-86.96%) 2017–2018: 362 days (-84.22%) 2021–2022: 376 days (-77.57%) 💡 What does this tell us? Bull markets are growing longer, while bear markets have remained consistently brutal. The current cycle has already surpassed the average bull run length of 885 days (cycles #2–#4) and is quickly approaching the 957-day average of the two most recent cycles (#3 and #4). That makes this the second-longest bull market in Bitcoin’s history. ⏳ 1:1 Fibonacci Time Extension — The Hidden Timing Signal In time-based Fibonacci analysis, the 1.0 (1:1) extension means one simple thing: this cycle has now lasted the same amount of time as previous cycles — a perfect time symmetry. Here’s how I measured it: Average bull market length #2–#4(2011–2021): 885 days Average bull market length #3–#4(2015–2021): 957 days Today’s date: May 27, 2025 = Day 917 ✅ Result: We are well inside the time window where Bitcoin historically tops out. You don’t need to be a fortune teller to see that this is a zone of caution. Markets peak on euphoria, not logic and this timing confluence is a red flag worth watching. 🗓️ "Sell in May and Go Away" — Not Just a Meme One of the oldest market adages is showing its teeth again. Risk assets — including Bitcoin — tend to underperform in the summer months. Why? Lower liquidity Institutional rebalancing Exhaustion from prior run-ups Vacations and reduced trading volumes And here we are: Bitcoin is hovering near ATH It's been in an uptrend for 917 days We just entered the time-extension top zone Liquidity is thinning across the board You don’t need to panic. But you do need to think like a professional: secure profits, reduce exposure, and wait for structure. 😬 FOMO Is a Portfolio Killer This is where most traders make their worst decisions. FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) isn’t just a meme — it’s the reason so many people buy tops and sell bottoms. Before entering any trade right now, ask yourself: Where were you at $20K? Did you have a plan? Or are you reacting to headlines? 📌 Clear mind > urgent clicks 📌 Patience > chasing green candles 📌 Strategy > emotion Let the herd FOMO in. You protect your capital. Will This Bear Market Be Different? Every past cycle saw BTC retrace between 77%–94%. That was then. But this time feels… different. Here’s why: Institutions are here — ETF flows, sovereign wealth funds, and major asset managers Regulation is clearer — and risk capital feels safer deploying in crypto Supply is tighter — much of BTC is now held off exchanges and in cold storage While a massive crash like -80% is less likely, that doesn’t mean a correction isn’t coming. Even a 30%–40% drop from here would wreak havoc on overleveraged traders. And that brings us to… 🚨 Altseason? Or Alt-bloodbath? Here’s the hard truth: If BTC corrects, altcoins will crash — not rally. Most altcoins have already seen strong rallies from their cycle lows. But if BTC drops 30%, many alts could tumble 50–80%. Altseason only happens when BTC cools off and ranges — not when it dumps. Don’t get caught holding the bag. Be tactical. Be disciplined. So Where’s the Next Big Level? You may be wondering: “If this is the top… where do we fall to?” Let’s just say there’s a very important Fibonacci confluence aligning with several other key indicators. I’ll reveal it in my next analysis, so stay tuned. 🧭 What Should You Do Right Now? (Not Financial Advice) ✅ Up big? — Take some profits ✅ On the sidelines? — Wait for real setups ✅ Emotional? — Unplug, reassess ✅ Are you new to Trading? — study, learn (how to day trade) and prepare for the next cycle The best trades come to the calm, not the impulsive. 💡 Final Words of Wisdom Bitcoin rewards discipline. It punishes emotion. Right now is not about catching the last 10% of upside — it’s about: Watching structure for potential trend change Measuring risk Avoiding overexposure Protecting what you’ve earned 📌 The edge isn’t in indicators. It’s in mindset. Stay prepared, stay sharp because in this market… 🔔 Remember: The market will always be there. Your capital won’t — unless you protect it. The next big opportunity doesn’t go to the loudest. It goes to the most ready. _________________________________ Thanks for reading and following along! 🙏 Now the big question remains: Is a bear market just lurking around the corner? What are your thoughts? Let me know in the comments. I’d love to hear your perspective. _________________________________ If you found this helpful, leave a like and comment below! Got requests for the next technical analysis? Let me know.

After printing a SFP at the key high of $180.52 followed by a sharp -8% rejection, SOL made a second attempt to breach the major resistance zone between $180–$185 — but once again, bulls fell short. Since then, price has been in a corrective phase. So the big question is: where’s the next high-probability trade setup? Let’s zoom out and break it down. 📏 Zooming Out: Structure, FVG & Fib Confluence Back on May 8th, SOL broke through the April 25th swing high at $157 with strong momentum, leaving behind an untested Fair Value Gap (FVG) — a key displacement area that’s yet to be filled. When we draw the Fibonacci retracement from the low of that move to the current high, the 0.618 retracement lands precisely at $157.34 — right on the old breakout high. That’s a beautiful confluence. Timing-wise, if SOL pulls back to that level between May 21–22, the 0.75 Fib speed fan also kicks in — adding dynamic trendline support to the static Fib level. 📉 What About the $164 Golden Pocket? There's a golden pocket forming around $164 from a recent mini-impulse, and while it may look tempting, context matters. This pocket isn't supported by enough confluence — no major structure, volume shelf, or EMA alignment. For a quick scalp? Yes. But for a high-conviction swing? It's not ideal. Remember, in trading we're not here to chase every candle — we're here to wait for the setups that stack the most reasons to say yes. 📍 The Zone to Watch: $157 Now let’s talk about that $157 zone — and why it’s standing out as the highest-probability long setup: 0.618 Fib retracement of the major impulse Retest of the breakout swing high Untested Fair Value Gap (FVG) 233 EMA + 233 SMA on the 4H timeframe lining up as dynamic support 1.5 outer pitchfork support line crossing through 1:1 trend-based Fib extension confluence Prior area of interest This is what we call a “stacked setup.” The more layers of confluence, the more conviction we have in the trade. Add to that the potential for a liquidity sweep (SFP) just below the current low at $159.44 — and it becomes a zone worth watching closely. 🎯 Long Setup: Entry: $157–$159.44 (watch for SFP confirmation) Stop-Loss: Below $154 Target: $200 R:R: Approx. 1:12 — a setup worth being patient for 🧠 Educational Note: Why Confluence Is King High-probability trades don’t come from guessing. They come from stacking confluence: structure, Fibonacci, moving averages, time-based levels, pitchforks, VWAPs, volume profiles — the more that lines up, the less you need to hope and the more you can trust your edge. Think like a sniper, not a machine gun. The market rewards patience and precision — not noise and FOMO. 🔻 Short Setup (Alternative Play) While we’re primarily bullish, there’s a valid short opportunity at the psychological $200 mark — but only if price shows clear rejection and confirmation (e.g. SFP, bearish engulfing, high volume reversal). Entry: $200 rejection Stop-Loss: Above $205 Target: $185–$180 R:R: Approx. 1:3+ 🔥 Final Words: Trade With Purpose This is what trading is about — not chasing green candles, but waiting for structure, clarity, and alignment. Whether you’re trading long or short, focus on high-conviction setups backed by logic and levels, not emotion. Don’t trade for action. Trade for precision. The market will always reward the patient ones who are willing to wait for that clean entry, stacked with reasons to act. Trust the process, stay disciplined, and let the charts do the talking. 💪📈 ___________________________________ If you found this helpful, leave a like and comment below! Got requests for the next technical analysis? Let me know.🚀 SOL Quick Update: SOL has flipped the POC from resistance into support with a clean retest — that was the long trigger. Structure remains bullish, and the $200 target is still in play. Keep an eye on price action for momentum confirmation! 📈Fakeout confirmed — BTC printed a clean SFP (Swing Failure Pattern) at the highs. Stay cautious.🚨 SOL Quick Update – May 22 After BTC tapped its ATH and printed an SFP, the second breakout attempt was met with a sharp -3% rejection, dragging altcoins briefly with it. On that drop, SOL just retested the 21 Daily EMA at $165.5 and bouncing cleanly. 🔹 Currently trading above key support zones: - 21D EMA: $165.55 - 21D SMA: $165 - 21W EMA: $162.67 - 21W SMA: $168.27 - 1H 500 EMA: $163.53 - 1H 500 SMA: $163 SOL remains firmly in an uptrend. As long as it stays above these levels, the $200 target remains in play. Watch the reaction at the swing high of $184.88! We could see an SFP before continuation. 👉 Bonus: If you want to apply these EMA/SMA zones to your own charts, check out my free indicator I built. It’s available under “Scripts” on my profile. Enjoy and happy trading! 💻🚨 SOL Update – 23 May Yesterday, I anticipated a sweep of the highs followed by a small correction — and that's exactly how it played out. SOL is respecting the technicals beautifully. The two key highs at $180.52 and $179.85 acted as an S/R flip zone. After two initial rejections, price broke through, targeting the high at $184.88, which was swept and printed a SFP. A minor correction followed, retesting the key highs — right inside the golden pocket of this smaller wave in confluence with the 1H TF 21 EMA/SMA. From there, we’ve seen a nice bounce, now breaching higher levels. 🔹 Target remains: $200 🔹 Key support to hold: $180 zone It’s been a pleasure to chart SOL — technicals have been clean, and price action has rewarded patience and precision.Another SOL Update – May 23 Today’s news sent shockwaves through the markets, triggering a sharp downturn. SOL attempted to retest the yearly open at $189.31, but failed, printing another SFP followed by a sharp -8% drop. This drop retested the weekly open, aligning perfectly with – Anchored VWAP from the low at $159.44 – Previous POC just below That confluence triggered a strong bounce but will it hold and push higher? Imo unlikely. A revisit of the weekly open+POC seems more probable. That level needs to hold to maintain bullish momentum. This week's candle close will be key in revealing SOL’s next direction. 🔍 Key Zone to Watch: – $170 – must hold to sustain bullish momentum. A breakdown below this level would signal weakness and shift the bias. Reminder: – Many are asking what’s happening and how to react. – The answer? Watch price action. If you're unsure, take profits, adjust SL. Ask yourself: are we above key support like dOpen, wOpen, mOpen, VWAP, POC, Fibonacci, EMA/SMA etc. 👉 Adjust. Adapt. Stay present. SOL remains one of the cleanest charts.