SiDec

BTC continues to chop in a tight range near its previous all-time high. While price action may appear messy at first glance, traders using a combination of structure, Fibonacci levels, and order flow tools are spotting clean opportunities — especially through Swing Failure Patterns (SFPs).🔍 What Just Happened?Bitcoin recently rejected from the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level — a classic reaction zone. What made this move powerful was the SFP that formed at that level. Price swept above a prior high, triggering breakout buys, only to reverse. This type of move traps late longs and offers an ideal short entry.🧠 Educational Insight: Why SFPs Are One of the Best SetupsSFPs (Swing Failure Patterns) are some of the highest-probability trades you can take for a few key reasons:1️⃣ Liquidity-driven: They form where stop losses cluster — above highs or below lows — creating a magnet for price.2️⃣ Clean invalidation: The wick high/low gives a natural stop-loss level, keeping risk tight.3️⃣ Fast reaction: Once trapped traders are forced to exit, price often reverses sharply — giving you strong follow-through.4️⃣ Confirmable with order flow: Using tools like Exocharts, you can see aggressive longs/shorts piling in just before the reversal. This adds conviction to the setup.📏 Current Confluence:Rejection from the 0.786 Fib retracementSFP confirmed on high volume1:1 trend-based Fib extension sits at ~$105,410That level also lines up with the 0.666 Fib retracementAnchored VWAP around $105KLiquidity pool right at that zone too — a likely magnet🎯 Trade Idea:Short triggered at the SFP wick, stop just above it. First target: the 1:1 extension near $105.4K. Risk-reward is excellent with high probability if price continues to unwind late longs.✅ Key Takeaway:In ranges like this, you don’t need to guess direction — you need to react to structure. SFPs give you that edge. When paired with real-time tools like Exocharts and anchored VWAPs, these trades become sniper entries rather than coin flips.Let the market show its hand — and trade the reaction, not the prediction.📌 Summary:This is how you avoid overtrading in chop: wait for key levels, watch how price reacts, and let trapped traders create the move. If BTC revisits the $105K region, it’s a major area to watch for reaction — or to take partials if you’re in a short.The best trades come from patience + precision._________________________________If you found this helpful, leave a like and comment below! Got requests for the next technical analysis? Let me know.

Bitcoin is approaching a critical moment and the signs are everywhere.After more than 900 days of steady bull market growth, BTC now flirts with all-time highs (ATH) while momentum stalls, liquidity thins, and emotions run hot. You might be asking:Are we nearing the cycle top?Is now the time to de-risk or double down?What comes next?This isn’t just a question of price. It’s about timing, structure, and psychology.In this analysis, we’ll break down Bitcoin’s historical cycles, the current macro structure, the hidden signals from Fibonacci time extensions, and how to think like a professional when the crowd is chasing FOMO.Let’s dive in.📚 Educational Insight: Understanding Bitcoin CyclesBitcoin doesn’t move in straight lines, it moves in cycles.Bull markets grow slowly, then explode. Bear markets fall fast, then grind sideways. These rhythms are driven by halving events, liquidity expansions, and most importantly: human emotion.Here’s what history tells us:Historical Bull Markets:2009–2011: 540 days (+5,189,598%)2011–2013: 743 days (+62,086%)2015–2017: 852 days (+12,125%)2018–2021: 1061 days (+2,108%)2022–Present: 917 days so far (+623%)Bear Market Durations:2011: 164 days (-93.73%)2013–2015: 627 days (-86.96%)2017–2018: 362 days (-84.22%)2021–2022: 376 days (-77.57%)💡 What does this tell us?Bull markets are growing longer, while bear markets have remained consistently brutal. The current cycle has already surpassed the average bull run length of 885 days (cycles #2–#4) and is quickly approaching the 957-day average of the two most recent cycles (#3 and #4). That makes this the second-longest bull market in Bitcoin’s history.⏳ 1:1 Fibonacci Time Extension — The Hidden Timing SignalIn time-based Fibonacci analysis, the 1.0 (1:1) extension means one simple thing: this cycle has now lasted the same amount of time as previous cycles — a perfect time symmetry.Here’s how I measured it:Average bull market length #2–#4(2011–2021): 885 daysAverage bull market length #3–#4(2015–2021): 957 daysToday’s date: May 27, 2025 = Day 917✅ Result: We are well inside the time window where Bitcoin historically tops out.You don’t need to be a fortune teller to see that this is a zone of caution. Markets peak on euphoria, not logic and this timing confluence is a red flag worth watching.🗓️ "Sell in May and Go Away" — Not Just a MemeOne of the oldest market adages is showing its teeth again.Risk assets — including Bitcoin — tend to underperform in the summer months. Why?Lower liquidityInstitutional rebalancingExhaustion from prior run-upsVacations and reduced trading volumesAnd here we are:Bitcoin is hovering near ATHIt's been in an uptrend for 917 daysWe just entered the time-extension top zoneLiquidity is thinning across the boardYou don’t need to panic. But you do need to think like a professional: secure profits, reduce exposure, and wait for structure.😬 FOMO Is a Portfolio KillerThis is where most traders make their worst decisions.FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) isn’t just a meme — it’s the reason so many people buy tops and sell bottoms.Before entering any trade right now, ask yourself:Where were you at $20K?Did you have a plan?Or are you reacting to headlines?📌 Clear mind > urgent clicks📌 Patience > chasing green candles📌 Strategy > emotionLet the herd FOMO in. You protect your capital.Will This Bear Market Be Different?Every past cycle saw BTC retrace between 77%–94%. That was then. But this time feels… different.Here’s why:Institutions are here — ETF flows, sovereign wealth funds, and major asset managersRegulation is clearer — and risk capital feels safer deploying in cryptoSupply is tighter — much of BTC is now held off exchanges and in cold storageWhile a massive crash like -80% is less likely, that doesn’t mean a correction isn’t coming. Even a 30%–40% drop from here would wreak havoc on overleveraged traders.And that brings us to…🚨 Altseason? Or Alt-bloodbath?Here’s the hard truth:If BTC corrects, altcoins will crash — not rally.Most altcoins have already seen strong rallies from their cycle lows. But if BTC drops 30%, many alts could tumble 50–80%.Altseason only happens when BTC cools off and ranges — not when it dumps. Don’t get caught holding the bag. Be tactical. Be disciplined.So Where’s the Next Big Level?You may be wondering: “If this is the top… where do we fall to?”Let’s just say there’s a very important Fibonacci confluence aligning with several other key indicators. I’ll reveal it in my next analysis, so stay tuned.🧭 What Should You Do Right Now? (Not Financial Advice)✅ Up big? — Take some profits✅ On the sidelines? — Wait for real setups✅ Emotional? — Unplug, reassess✅ Are you new to Trading? — study, learn (how to day trade) and prepare for the next cycleThe best trades come to the calm, not the impulsive.💡 Final Words of WisdomBitcoin rewards discipline. It punishes emotion.Right now is not about catching the last 10% of upside — it’s about:Watching structure for potential trend changeMeasuring riskAvoiding overexposureProtecting what you’ve earned📌 The edge isn’t in indicators. It’s in mindset. Stay prepared, stay sharp because in this market…🔔 Remember: The market will always be there. Your capital won’t — unless you protect it.The next big opportunity doesn’t go to the loudest.It goes to the most ready._________________________________Thanks for reading and following along! 🙏Now the big question remains: Is a bear market just lurking around the corner?What are your thoughts? Let me know in the comments. I’d love to hear your perspective._________________________________If you found this helpful, leave a like and comment below! Got requests for the next technical analysis? Let me know.

After printing a SFP at the key high of $180.52 followed by a sharp -8% rejection, SOL made a second attempt to breach the major resistance zone between $180–$185 — but once again, bulls fell short. Since then, price has been in a corrective phase. So the big question is: where’s the next high-probability trade setup? Let’s zoom out and break it down.📏 Zooming Out: Structure, FVG & Fib ConfluenceBack on May 8th, SOL broke through the April 25th swing high at $157 with strong momentum, leaving behind an untested Fair Value Gap (FVG) — a key displacement area that’s yet to be filled. When we draw the Fibonacci retracement from the low of that move to the current high, the 0.618 retracement lands precisely at $157.34 — right on the old breakout high. That’s a beautiful confluence.Timing-wise, if SOL pulls back to that level between May 21–22, the 0.75 Fib speed fan also kicks in — adding dynamic trendline support to the static Fib level.📉 What About the $164 Golden Pocket?There's a golden pocket forming around $164 from a recent mini-impulse, and while it may look tempting, context matters. This pocket isn't supported by enough confluence — no major structure, volume shelf, or EMA alignment. For a quick scalp? Yes. But for a high-conviction swing? It's not ideal.Remember, in trading we're not here to chase every candle — we're here to wait for the setups that stack the most reasons to say yes.📍 The Zone to Watch: $157Now let’s talk about that $157 zone — and why it’s standing out as the highest-probability long setup:0.618 Fib retracement of the major impulseRetest of the breakout swing highUntested Fair Value Gap (FVG)233 EMA + 233 SMA on the 4H timeframe lining up as dynamic support1.5 outer pitchfork support line crossing through1:1 trend-based Fib extension confluencePrior area of interestThis is what we call a “stacked setup.” The more layers of confluence, the more conviction we have in the trade. Add to that the potential for a liquidity sweep (SFP) just below the current low at $159.44 — and it becomes a zone worth watching closely.🎯 Long Setup:Entry: $157–$159.44 (watch for SFP confirmation)Stop-Loss: Below $154Target: $200R:R: Approx. 1:12 — a setup worth being patient for🧠 Educational Note: Why Confluence Is KingHigh-probability trades don’t come from guessing. They come from stacking confluence: structure, Fibonacci, moving averages, time-based levels, pitchforks, VWAPs, volume profiles — the more that lines up, the less you need to hope and the more you can trust your edge. Think like a sniper, not a machine gun.The market rewards patience and precision — not noise and FOMO.🔻 Short Setup (Alternative Play)While we’re primarily bullish, there’s a valid short opportunity at the psychological $200 mark — but only if price shows clear rejection and confirmation (e.g. SFP, bearish engulfing, high volume reversal).Entry: $200 rejectionStop-Loss: Above $205Target: $185–$180R:R: Approx. 1:3+🔥 Final Words: Trade With PurposeThis is what trading is about — not chasing green candles, but waiting for structure, clarity, and alignment. Whether you’re trading long or short, focus on high-conviction setups backed by logic and levels, not emotion.Don’t trade for action. Trade for precision. The market will always reward the patient ones who are willing to wait for that clean entry, stacked with reasons to act.Trust the process, stay disciplined, and let the charts do the talking. 💪📈___________________________________If you found this helpful, leave a like and comment below! Got requests for the next technical analysis? Let me know.🚀 SOL Quick Update:SOL has flipped the POC from resistance into support with a clean retest — that was the long trigger. Structure remains bullish, and the $200 target is still in play. Keep an eye on price action for momentum confirmation! 📈Fakeout confirmed — BTC printed a clean SFP (Swing Failure Pattern) at the highs. Stay cautious.🚨 SOL Quick Update – May 22After BTC tapped its ATH and printed an SFP, the second breakout attempt was met with a sharp -3% rejection, dragging altcoins briefly with it. On that drop, SOL just retested the 21 Daily EMA at $165.5 and bouncing cleanly.🔹 Currently trading above key support zones:- 21D EMA: $165.55- 21D SMA: $165- 21W EMA: $162.67- 21W SMA: $168.27- 1H 500 EMA: $163.53- 1H 500 SMA: $163SOL remains firmly in an uptrend. As long as it stays above these levels, the $200 target remains in play. Watch the reaction at the swing high of $184.88! We could see an SFP before continuation.👉 Bonus: If you want to apply these EMA/SMA zones to your own charts, check out my free indicator I built. It’s available under “Scripts” on my profile. Enjoy and happy trading! 💻🚨 SOL Update – 23 MayYesterday, I anticipated a sweep of the highs followed by a small correction — and that's exactly how it played out. SOL is respecting the technicals beautifully.The two key highs at $180.52 and $179.85 acted as an S/R flip zone. After two initial rejections, price broke through, targeting the high at $184.88, which was swept and printed a SFP. A minor correction followed, retesting the key highs — right inside the golden pocket of this smaller wave in confluence with the 1H TF 21 EMA/SMA.From there, we’ve seen a nice bounce, now breaching higher levels.🔹 Target remains: $200🔹 Key support to hold: $180 zoneIt’s been a pleasure to chart SOL — technicals have been clean, and price action has rewarded patience and precision.Another SOL Update – May 23Today’s news sent shockwaves through the markets, triggering a sharp downturn. SOL attempted to retest the yearly open at $189.31, but failed, printing another SFP followed by a sharp -8% drop.This drop retested the weekly open, aligning perfectly with– Anchored VWAP from the low at $159.44– Previous POC just belowThat confluence triggered a strong bounce but will it hold and push higher? Imo unlikely. A revisit of the weekly open+POC seems more probable. That level needs to hold to maintain bullish momentum. This week's candle close will be key in revealing SOL’s next direction.🔍 Key Zone to Watch:– $170 – must hold to sustain bullish momentum.A breakdown below this level would signal weakness and shift the bias.Reminder:– Many are asking what’s happening and how to react.– The answer? Watch price action. If you're unsure, take profits, adjust SL. Ask yourself: are we above key support like dOpen, wOpen, mOpen, VWAP, POC, Fibonacci, EMA/SMA etc.👉 Adjust. Adapt. Stay present.SOL remains one of the cleanest charts.

ETH is setting the stage for its next major move — and the chart is packed with clues.After completing Wave 3 at $2738.50, ETH has entered a corrective phase, forming what looks like a bullish flag. But beneath the surface, smart money levels are aligning: VWAP, Fibs, key levels, and liquidity traps are all converging around one high-probability zone.This analysis breaks down both the long and short setups, backed by real confluence and clean R:R opportunities. Whether you’re planning to snipe the reversal near support or fade the rally at resistance, you’ll walk away with a clear trade plan and deeper insight into how price reacts at precision levels.Let’s get into it.🟢 Bullish Scenario: Long Setup with Deep ConfluenceAfter a fakeout pump into the golden pocket of this minor downtrend (typical for a Sunday), ETH rejected cleanly at the upper resistance of the bull flag channel.We're now watching for the swing low at $2406.63 to be swept, setting up a potential SFP (Swing Failure Pattern) at a highly confluent support zone:🔍 Confluence at the $2390–$2360 Zone:Anchored VWAP from the Wave 3 origin at $1752 is sitting at $2390Trend-Based Fib Extension 1:1 of the correction lands at $2386.84Liquidity pool just under the recent swing low0.382 Fib retracement of the entire Wave 3 at $2361.660.618 Fib Speed Resistance Fan intersects this zoneLower bull flag support line also alignsThis makes the $2390–$2362 zone a high-probability bounce area.📌 Plan:Laddered long entries between $2390–$2362, watching closely for a clean SFP or reversal signal.Target 1: $3000 psychological levelTarget 2: 0.618 Fib retracement at $3067.71 (potential Wave 5 top)Stop-loss: Below previous yearly open (can be tightened after confirmation)R:R: 1:5 or better after SL adjustment🔴 Bearish Scenario: Short Setup at Key Rejection ZoneIf ETH makes a move up to complete the 5th wave, we monitor $3067.71 — the 0.618 retracement of the entire corrective leg — as a key resistance.If price rejects here with momentum loss or bearish structure:📌 Plan:Short on confirmed rejection of $3067.71Stop-loss: Above $3211 (above 0.666 Fib)Target: Previous high near $2700 or lowerR:R: 1:2 or better depending on entry and structure🧠 Educational Insight: Why Confluence Increases ProbabilityMany traders chase setups based on single indicators. Real edge comes from stacking independent tools: VWAPs, Fibs, FVGs etc... When they align, the setup isn’t random — it’s high conviction.This strategy gives you a framework to anticipate where price is likely to move and why, rather than reacting emotionally.Patience and preparation will always outperform panic and reaction. Trade the plan — not the impulse.___________________________________If you found this helpful, leave a like and comment below! Got requests for the next technical analysis? Let me know.That sharp drop completed the ABC correction perfectly, tagging the 1:1 trend-based fib extension to the dollar. Wave C also printed a clean 5-wave structure — precision. Long setup remains intact, and the target stays unchanged.That played out beautifully, ETH held the 0.382 fib as support and bounced off. It’s now running into some resistance at the 0.618 Fib speed fan:So how did I know that a bounce was coming during the sharp shakeout drop? Let’s break it down in a way that’s both educational and a solid reminder to trust your process.First off, we were still in a strong bullish uptrend on the 1H timeframe—never forget the bigger picture. Then came the key Fibonacci zone between the 0.382 and 0.412 retracements, a classic area for price to find support during a healthy correction. Price tapped that zone cleanly and reacted just as expected.On top of that, my custom beta indicator (still a work in progress) lit up right at the edge of its long-entry threshold. That added another layer of confluence to the setup and gave even more conviction to take the trade.When the trend, key Fib levels, and confirmation from a solid indicator all line up—that’s your high-probability window.This bounce wasn’t luck. It was a calculated response to confluence and structure.Remember: trend is your friend, and confluence is your edge. Stay patient, trust your tools, and wait for the setup to come to you. That’s how you consistently catch moves—even during the chaos of a shakeout. 💪📈Always begin by zooming out and checking the trend on higher timeframes. It’s one of the most overlooked yet crucial habits for any trader. Understanding where price sits in the broader structure gives you clarity and prevents emotional, reactive trades.With my custom MA indicator, you can easily assess trend strength and direction using the 21 EMA/SMA across the daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes. This lets you instantly see whether price is respecting key moving averages or breaking down below them. It’s a simple but powerful tool to stay on the right side of momentum.Right now, ETH is trading above both the daily and weekly 21 EMA/SMA, which shows solid short-to-mid-term bullish momentum. However, we’re currently approaching a major resistance zone: the monthly 21 EMA/SMA, which lies between $2564 and $2709. This is a significant level not just from a structural perspective, but also as a great area to consider taking partial profits! Especially if you’ve been riding this move up from lower levels.You can use my MA indicator for free. Just head over to my profile, open the script folder, and add it to your chart. It’s designed to give you instant visual guidance on trend alignment across multiple timeframes.And always remember: Trading isn’t about catching every move. It’s about stacking confluences and managing your risk around key levels. Stay patient, stay disciplined, and always trade with the bigger picture in mind. 📈🔥🚨 ETH Update – May 22ETH is holding up strong and continues to respect the initial plan. After a clean bounce from the 0.382 Fib retracement, price has reclaimed key support levels! Clear bullish intent.✅ ETH is trading above:- Monthly Order Block: between $2600-$2500- 21 Daily EMA: $2,355- 21 Daily SMA: $2,318- 1H 500 EMA: $2,319- 1H 500 SMA: $2,272This alignment across multiple timeframes confirms bullish momentum and the trend remains your friend.🎯 Next major target zone:- Psychological level: $3,000- 0.618 Fib retracement: $3,067.71As long as ETH holds above these dynamic supports, bulls remain in control and a push into the $3K zone is on the table.Stay patient, let price unfold, structure is solid 👀📈

XRP has completed a 5-wave impulse move. As expected, XRP is now in a corrective phase, pulling back after rejecting from a key resistance — and it’s doing so with technical precision.The question now: where is the next high-probability long setup? Let’s break it down.🧠 Market Structure & Key ZonesUsing Fibonacci retracement from the base of the 5-wave impulse, we now have a potential golden pocket target aligned with major confluence.🔽 Support Zone🔹 0.618 Fib retracement: $2.2982🔹 Daily Bullish Order Block: $2.2949🔹 Daily 21 EMA: $2.329🔹 Daily 21 SMA: $2.301🔹 Liquidity pool🔹 0.786 Fib Speed Fan (only if price drops between May 17–18)This creates a high-confluence support cluster at ~$2.3 — a prime candidate for a long re-entry.🟢 Long Trade SetupEntry: Ladder between $2.32 and $2.28Stop-loss: ~$2.21Target: $2.7175 (0.618 Fib retracement of the corrective downtrend)R:R: ~5:1🔴 Short Setup (Conditional)Trigger: Rejection at $2.7175Entry: ~$2.7175Stop-loss: Above $2.8033 (0.666 Fib) → set at ~$2.811Take Profit: ~$2.56 or lowerR:R: ~2:1+ (dependent on entry confirmation and PA behaviour)Shorts only valid if a clear rejection or SFP pattern emerges. If momentum is strong, this level may break — so wait for structure to confirm.📘 Educational Insight: Why Confluence MattersToo often, traders chase single-indicator signals. But real edge comes from confluence — when multiple tools (Fibs, MAs, Order Blocks, Liquidity, VWAPs, FVG, Speed Fans etc.) agree on the same zone. This alignment not only increases confidence in your entry, but also sharpens your risk management.Think of it as building a case — the more aligned evidence you have, the stronger your trade thesis becomes.📌 SummaryXRP is in a corrective phase after a 5-wave impulseClean rejection from weekly resistance → continuation of bearish trendLong zone: ~$2.3SL: ~$2.21 | TP: $2.7175 | R:R ~5:1Optional short: $2.7175 rejection → SL $2.811 | TP $2.56Precision isn’t about predicting — it’s about being ready when the chart speaks with clarity. Patience makes probability powerful.___________________________________If you found this helpful, leave a like and comment below! Got requests for the next technical analysis? Let me know.Clean bounce off the 0.618 Fib level:Price respected the 0.618 Fib beautifully. Now aiming for the 0.618 target at $2.7175:XRP swept the low with a clean SFP, trade setup still intact:🚨 XRP Update – May 22XRP is playing out beautifully so far! Delivering clean structure and respecting key levels.✅ Just swept the swing high at $2.4497 and printed a SFP. A great signal for short-term rejection and a classic example of a short trigger.✅ On the bullish side:XRP previously bounced perfectly from the golden pocket zone between:- 0.618 Fib: $2.2982- 0.666 Fib: $2.2705Also currently trading above both:- 21 Daily EMA: $2.356- 21 Daily SMA: $2.3459🎯 Target for the long setup remains the 0.618 Fib retracement at $2.7175.📌 Key Level to Flip:$2.4497 swing high (now resistance). A confirmed flip into support would strengthen the case for continuation toward the target.XRP is following the plan. Now it’s all about watching the reaction around $2.45. Let’s see if bulls can reclaim it and push higher 🔍📈🚨 XRP Quick Update – 23 MayXRP continues to lag behind the rest. Volume remains very low, so caution is advised. For now, it’s just bouncing within the range at the weekly level around $2.44.

Bitcoin has been trading slowly and steadily just below its all-time high at $109588. The key question now is:💭 Is BTC ready to break through and print a new all-time high? Or does it need one more dip before liftoff?Let’s break it down.Elliott Wave Structure & Market ContextBTC recently completed a clean 5-wave impulsive structure, with Wave 5 topping out into a major resistance zone. That confluence included:Value Area High (VAH)Weekly resistanceDaily multi-level clustersFinal resistance zone before price discoveryAfter multiple rejections from this zone, BTC lacked the momentum for a breakout — so a retracement was expected.And that’s what we’re now seeing: a textbook ABC correction.📉 ABC Correction Breakdown✅ Wave A: Dropped sharply, nearly tapping the psychological $100K level✅ Wave B: Retraced into the prior resistance band between $106133 and $104464 — rejected perfectly off the 0.786 Fib of Wave A🔄 Wave C: Now unfoldingTo project the potential bottom of Wave C, we use the trend-based Fib extension (Wave A = Wave C). The 1:1 extension lands at:🎯 $99875 — Right at the $100K psychological magnetAdd this confluence:🟢 Key swing high at $99475✅ 0.5 Fib retracement of the entire 5-wave rally🔍 Psychological Level: $100K🔑 Liquidity and demand zoneThis makes the $99K–$101K area a strong, high-conviction support zone.🟢 Long Trade SetupEntry zone: Ladder between $101K – $99KStop-loss: Below 97KTarget: New all-time high at $109588R:R: ~3:1+Structure: Correction into high-confluence zone + psychological level = high probability setup📌 Summary:BTC likely finishing Wave C of ABC correction$100K = confluence of Fib, structure, psychology, and liquiditySetup is simple: Wait for price to retest this zone and trigger your planIf this level holds, BTC may be ready to attempt a breakout into price discoveryLet the chart come to you — and trade the reaction, not the anticipation. 📉🔁📈____________________________________If you found this helpful, leave a like and comment below! Got requests for the next technical analysis? Let me know.Possible scenario over the weekend:Bulls are firmly in control — BTC is breaking through key daily levels. A retest of the all-time high looks to be the next target.🚨 Quick BTC Update:BTC printed a clean SFP (Swing Failure Pattern) at ATH. Played out as I was expecting it. Stay cautious!🚨Bitcoin Update:Bitcoin just reached a new all-time high today but was quickly rejected, forming a clear Swing Failure Pattern (SFP). This was an example of how price often behaves around major psychological levels. Right after sweeping the highs, Bitcoin dropped sharply by -3%, offering a clean low-risk short opportunity.Educational Insight:All-time highs often act as liquidity zones. Price pushes above to trigger breakout trades and stop-losses, only to reverse. This is the SFP in action. The key is not the breakout itself, but whether price can hold above. If it quickly falls back below the level, that’s a strong sign of rejection and potential reversal.Pro Tip:When price nears an ATH, watch lower timeframes (5–15 min) closely. A strong wick above the level followed by a close back below, especially with a volume spike, is a high-probability setup. Enter on the confirmation, not the impulse, tight stop, clear invalidation, better R:R. Key takeaway:Don’t chase breakouts blindly at ATHs—wait for confirmation. Always track how price behaves after the level is touched.

ADA is respecting structure beautifully and currently consolidating after completing a 5-wave impulse move. The key question now is: where are the next high-probability trade setups?Let’s break it down step by step.Market Structure & Elliott ContextADA has completed a full 5-wave bullish sequence, and—as expected—is now in a correction phase. This appears to be forming a classic ABC correction.Using the Fibonacci retracement tool:0.5 retracement of the entire move sits at → $0.7534This aligns perfectly with the previous swing high at $0.746 — a level that has yet to be retestedThe 1:1 trend-based Fib extension of a potential ABC correction puts Wave C at → $0.7492Confluence Check:This entire support zone (~$0.75) is stacked with technical alignment:✅ Previous swing high: $0.746✅ 0.5 Fib retracement: $0.7534✅ 1:1 extension: $0.7492✅ Daily 21 EMA: $0.7455✅ Daily 21 SMA: $0.7347✅ Point of Control (POC): ~$0.7318✅ Anchored VWAP: Also sitting in this zone✅ Pitchfork golden pocket: Aligns as dynamic supportAll of these support indicators point to one thing: this ~$0.75 zone is a high-probability long entry area.🟢 Long SetupEntry zone: Ladder between $0.77 – $0.75Average entry: ~$0.76Stop-loss: Below $0.7318 (under POC)Target: $0.9212 (0.618 retracement of the recent down wave)R:R: ~5:1Potential upside: +22%🔴 Short Setup (on Rejection Only)Entry: $0.9212 (0.618 Fib retracement of downtrend)Stop-loss: Above 0.666 Fib → ~$0.958Target: previous swing high or yearly openR:R: ~1.4:1 (it can be adjusted tighter upon confirmation)This short setup isn’t ideal in terms of R:R unless we see clear rejection. But with confirmation — like an SFP, bearish engulfing, or divergence — the stop can be tightened, making the risk-to-reward much more favourable.📘 Educational Insight: Why Structure Beats EmotionIn trading, the strongest setups occur where multiple tools converge—Fib levels, EMAs, VWAP, volume zones, and past price action. When these align, it’s not about guessing—it’s about preparing.The key is to wait for structure to come to you, not the other way around. Patience allows clarity. Clarity allows precision. And precision pays.💡 Final ThoughtsThe plan is clear. Levels are set. Now it’s just observation and discipline.Good trades don’t chase attention — they present themselves to those who wait.___________________________________If you found this helpful, leave a like and comment below! Got requests for the next technical analysis? Let me know.🔄 ADA Long Position Update:Adjusting stop-loss slightly below $0.71 to better protect the setup.Laddering additional limit orders down to $0.73 to improve average entry.Structure still intact. Letting the zone do its work. Patience.ADA bounced strongly off the 0.618 Fib retracement. Now eyeing the next leg up — targeting the 0.618 Fib at $0.9212, with the $1 psychological level as the overall goal for now:ADA just tapped the POC cleanly—keep an eye on the $0.69 zone, where the 0.786 Fib retracement and anchored VWAP line up, in case we get another leg down.🚨 ADA Update – May 22ADA is moving right on track and reacting beautifully to key levels.✅ Price bounced cleanly from the 0.702 Fib retracement of the impulse wave, in perfect confluence with the POC, giving an ideal long entry around $0.71.✅ Now, ADA has reached the golden pocket resistance of the recent downward move:- 0.618 Fib: $0.8054- 0.666 Fib: $0.8128Currently seeing a rejection from this zone as traders take profits, a natural reaction after a strong move up.🎯 The primary target for this long setup remains at the 0.618 Fib retracement of the full downtrend at $0.9212.As long as ADA holds above support, the trade remains valid and is playing out as planned.Patience pays, let the chart do the work. 📈✅

NEAR just pulled off a +50% rally from the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $2.224 — a strong show of force from the bulls. After that explosive move, price is now cooling off in a consolidation phase, preparing for the next leg higher.🟢 Long Setup — Dip Before Lift?The next high-probability long zone lies between:$3.026 – $2.94Possible but less likely of a deeper dip to $2.78 (0.5 Fib of the recent move)Long entries can be laddered between $3.00 and $2.90 (even $2.80 if volatility kicks in).Stop-Loss: Below the daily 21 EMA ($2.7344) and 21 SMA ($2.6739)Target: $4.00R:R: ~4:1 — clean and structuredThis setup aligns with standard continuation behaviour after strong impulses — consolidation, retrace, and resume.🔴 Short Setup (on Rejection at $4.00)Entry: ~$4.00Stop-Loss: Above $4.25Target: Yearly open (~$3.65)R:R: ~1.5:1 — not ideal, but valid on confirmation🎯 SummaryNEAR is consolidating after a strong move — either ready to continue higher or retest deeper into Fib supportLong zone: $3.00–$2.90 (poss. $2.80)Short zone: $4.00 (on rejection only)Simple structure, clean risk, and nothing forced — exactly how it should be.Sometimes, less is more. Let price show the next move. Stay ready. 📈___________________________________If you found this helpful, leave a like and comment below! Got requests for the next technical analysis? Let me know.🔄 NEAR Long Position Update:Adjusting stop-loss slightly below $2.5 to better protect the setup.Laddering additional limit orders down to $2.61 (0.666 Fib) to improve average entry.Structure still intact. Letting the zone do its work. Patience.NEAR retraced to the 0.618 Fib of the 50% impulse and bounced cleanly from there. Targeting the next key levels now, with the overall goal set at the monthly zone near the psychological $4 mark:NEAR is holding the golden pocket nicely after the little shakeout, trade setup still looks solid:

HBAR has been a dream to chart lately — beautifully technical, clean reactions, and a strong respect for structure. When a chart follows fibs this precisely, charting becomes fun — like solving a puzzle that pays. You stop forcing trades and start enjoying the process.Let’s break down where the next high-probability trade setup lies — and why.Elliott Wave ContextHBAR recently completed a 5-wave impulse structure and is now unfolding a ABC correction:✅ Wave A: Broke below Wave 4's low✅ Wave B: Rejected cleanly at the 0.618 retracement of Wave A🔄 Wave C: Currently unfolding, with price structure hinting at a Head & Shoulders forming to the downsideInterestingly, HBAR has been bouncing between golden ratios like a Fibonacci pinball machine. — reinforcing how well this asset respects technical structure.🟢 Long Opportunity: The Golden Pocket ZoneBy pulling Fibonacci retracement from the entire 5-wave leg (from $0.16941 to $0.22885), we uncover the golden pocket:0.618 Fib → $0.192120.666 Fib → $0.18926But what really strengthens this zone is the confluence:📍 21-Day EMA → $0.19361📍 21-Day SMA → $0.19229📍 Anchored VWAP from the $0.15396 low → ~$0.19135📍 4/1 Gann Fan support (if reached between May 15–17)Together, they form a tight support band between:🎯 $0.195 – $0.18926📐 How We Projected the 1.618 TargetHere’s where the magic of planning comes in.If Wave C finishes within this golden pocket, we can anticipate the next move by applying a trend-based Fibonacci extension. This gives us a realistic projection for the next impulsive move:📈 1.618 extension lands at → $0.28654This level also aligns with the yearly level and previous key high — forming an ideal final target📘 Educational Insight: Why Golden Pockets MatterIn trading, the “golden pocket” — the 0.618-0.666 Fibonacci retracement zone — is often where high-probability reversals take place. It’s a zone where buyers (or sellers) return with conviction after a correction. When this area also aligns with EMAs, anchored VWAPs, Gann levels etc. and previous structure, it becomes more than just a level — it becomes a decision zone.This is where confluence transforms a trade idea into a trade setup.🟢 Long Trade Setup:Entry: Laddered between $0.195 – $0.18926Stop-Loss: Below $0.185Take-Profit: $0.28654R:R: ~10:1Potential Gain: ~+50%🔴 Short Setup (If Rejected at Extension):If price hits $0.28654 and shows exhaustion or bearish reversal patterns (SFP, engulfing candle, volume spike), a short could be considered:Entry: ~$0.286Stop-Loss: $0.2967 (better above $0.3)Target: $0.2622R:R: ~2:1HBAR is giving us a textbook case of structure, rhythm, and precision. Whether it’s the golden pocket, the 1.618 extension, or the alignment of multiple tools — this is how clean setups are built.Set your alerts. Trust the plan. Let the chart come to you.In trading, silence is a skill — knowing when not to act is as powerful as knowing when to strike.____________________________________If you found this helpful, leave a like and comment below! Got requests for the next technical analysis? Let me know.HBAR just tapped the daily bullish order block to the dollar — a precise sniper long entry, perfectly bouncing off that zone. This level also aligned with the 0.702 Fib retracement of the previous 5-wave impulse, adding confluence.The initial long was entered at the golden pocket between the 0.618 and 0.666 levels. The current outlook remains bullish. I've marked three take-profit zones for the long setup:🔹 The 0.618 retracement of the ABC structure🔹 A potential retest of that same 0.618 level🔹 The 0.786 Fib retracement as the final targetKeeping an eye on price reaction at these key levels.After seeing the shakeout, placing the SL below the anchored VWAP made more sense to me, trade setup remains intact:

SUI has been trapped in a trading range for the past 6 days, consolidating between key levels and building up liquidity for the next big move. When price goes quiet like this after an impulsive structure, it’s not time to trade—it’s time to observe, analyse, and prepare.So, where’s the next high-probability setup?Let’s break it down:🔹 Elliott Wave ContextFrom my previous SUI analysis, I identified a completed 5-wave impulse structure. After such a move, a corrective ABC pattern is typically next.SUI has been respecting technical levels with surprising accuracy throughout this cycle—especially Fibonacci levels and key horizontal zones.📉 ABC Correction in Progress?Wave A appears to be completed, and Wave B was rejected at the yearly level in perfect confluence with the golden pocket (0.618–0.666) retracement of Wave A. This strongly suggests that Wave C is now unfolding.Using the 1:1 trend-based Fib extension, the projected Wave C target lands at:➡️ $3.6413Let’s dig deeper—does this level hold up under further scrutiny?🔍 Multi-Layered Confluence at $3.56–$3.64Here’s what aligns at this potential support zone:1:1 Fib extension (Wave A = Wave C) → $3.64130.55 Fib retracement (from $3.1132 to $4.2967) → ~$3.64Volume Profile POC from prior range → ~$3.590.618 Fib retracement → $3.5653Weekly level → $3.559421-Day EMA → $3.553721-Day SMA → $3.63190.75 Fib Speed Fan (if hit on May 16) → aligns with zoneThis stack of levels gives us a tightly packed, high-conviction support area between:📍 $3.56 – $3.646___________________________________🟢 Long Setup Idea:Entry Zone: Ladder entries between $3.56 and $3.75Stop-Loss: $3.4546 (beneath confluence zone)Take-Profit Target: $4.588 (0.786 Fib retracement + -0.236 Fib extension)R:R: ~5:1🚫 Invalidation: If SUI reclaims the yearly level at $4.1152 before revisiting this support, the setup is invalidated.🔴 Short Setup Idea:If SUI pushes into the 0.786 Fib retracement at $4.588 and shows clear rejection (e.g., SFP, bearish engulfing, high-volume reversal), a short can be considered.Entry: On rejection at $4.588Stop-Loss: ~$4.714Targets:TP1: $4.325 (recent highs)TP2: $4.1152 (yearly level)🧠 Final Thoughts:This is where trading becomes a game of patience. I’ve mapped both long and short setups based on structure, confluence, and price behaviour. Now it’s about waiting for price to come to your levels.⏰ Alarms set.📈 Let the chart do the work.More updates to come as the range resolves. Stay sharp!___________________________________If you found this helpful, leave a like and comment below! Got requests for the next technical analysis? Let me know.Keep an eye out for an SFP at the low or 0.618 long entry:Trade playing out as planned — strong bounce off the 1:1 trend-based Fib extension, perfectly aligned with the 0.55 retracement. 0.75 Fib Speed Fan acted as support. Next target for this long setup is the 0.786 Fib:After two failed breakouts, SUI pulled back to test the 0.618 Fib, trade setup still intact:📈 SUI Quick Update – May 22SUI continues to deliver! Trading cleanly, respecting structure, and pushing through key resistance levels with strength. The uptrend remains intact and well-supported.✅ Currently trading above:- 21 Daily EMA: $3.747- 21 Daily SMA: $3.78- Yearly Level: $4.1225- Weekly Bullish Order Block: $3.94–$4.00This stacked confluence zone has now flipped into strong support, giving bulls a solid base to build from.🔹 Reclaiming both the psychological $4 level and the yearly level is a major technical achievement! Now price has even broken above the weekly bullish order block, confirming strength across multiple timeframes.🎯 Next target in sight:The 0.786 Fibonacci retracement at $4.5873! A classic exhaustion/reversal zone. If price reaches it, watch closely for a high-volume rejection.📌 Summary:- Trend: Bullish (higher highs & higher lows)- Support: $4.12 → $4.00 → $3.94- Resistance/Target: $4.5873- Strategy: Maintain long bias while above support. Consider short only on confirmed rejection from 0.786 zoneSUI remains one of the cleanest, most technically reliable charts in this cycle! Structure, levels, and confluence are all aligned. Now it’s a waiting game for the next key reaction. 🧠📈Stay sharp — Trend is your friend 👀🔥👉 Bonus: If you want to apply these EMA/SMA zones to your own charts, check out my free indicator I built. It’s available under “Scripts” on my profile. Enjoy and happy trading! 💻⚠️ Quick SUI Update – May 22Major exploit on the Sui-based DEX Cetus Protocol today, with ~$260M drained. Market reacted sharply. Heavy volatility and uncertainty ahead.Be cautious with longs! Not the time to overexpose.If you’re already in profit, adjust your SL accordingly and protect capital.Let price structure settle before taking new positions. Stay safe out there. 🙏SUI long position closed following the news of the Cetus exploit and increased volatility.Stay cautious out there! Capital preservation comes first. Let’s see how the market digests this.