RetiredNovice

Here’s my current view of the Bitcoin market: The 4-year cycle still appears intact, and many who doubt it seem to be in the denial phase. While some market dynamics have changed, the overall structure is still on track. Based on prior cycles, I expect a bear-market bottom to form roughly 324–340 days from now. Until then, I plan to avoid leverage and focus on accumulating during deeper pullbacks. I view Bitcoin around $68k as fair value, with prices above that currently leaning toward overvaluation. I also disagree with the idea that the cycle can’t be over simply because “too many people are calling the top.” As Bitcoin matures and more cycles unfold, more traders naturally recognize recurring patterns. Increased awareness doesn’t invalidate the possibility that the top is already in. Comparing this cycle to 2021 is also misleading. The previous double-top was heavily influenced by the pandemic, unprecedented Federal Reserve intervention, stimulus payments, and the surge of retail traders stuck at home. Those conditions don’t exist today. This cycle has been driven instead by regulatory clarity, institutional involvement, and growing governmental trust—resulting in a healthier, more sustainable rally. Despite extreme fear in the market and widespread pessimism, I believe we still have downside ahead due to broader economic fragility. My current expectation is for a market bottom around October 2026, followed by a renewed parabolic move into the next bull market. I don’t expect Bitcoin to reach $1 million by 2030, though it may be possible someday.

I'm frozen... frozen in time. I can't shake this feeling--trying to unwind. I need to calm down. I need to stop... but I cannot. I can't shake this ceiling; it's already set in stone.

I have returned and here is my updated chart. I'm such a perfectionist sometimes when it comes to lines that it takes my hours to get them exactly how I envision. To start off, yes I am bullish on Bitcoin and believe that this cycle hasn't ended yet but I will admit that I think the end of it is closer than the beginning. With that being said, I will not disappear when the bear market starts, I will simply make updates and try to catch the bottom like I did in the past. So far I am going with history and my bottom target is above 66,800 and I expect the floor to fizzle out around 71-73k; if it ends up being higher than that, great! Overall this idea is just an update for my own personal records and my prediction is based on what has happen that last time this pattern was brought to us. Stay safe out there, happy trading, and as always--Cheers!

Take a look at this idea. My lines are very precise hewre.nice

Please provide a meaningful and detailed description of your analysis and prediction. Walk us through your thought process. Put yourself in the reader's shoes and see if you would understand the context based on what you wrote. Clearly stated profit targets and stop loss areas help clarify any trade idea.

2 different scenarios for bulls here. Sentiment is at a major low and many are giving up and waving the white flag... this makes me more bullish for the future. Forget "altseason" and the meme narratives, and focus solely on Bitcoin as the crypto market. It is still not done and has much more to run. See the similarities panning out currently from 2024. Could it be a coincidence or manipulation to make the chart look so similar? No one can be certain but either way, we can guess where this is heading regardless.

History hasn't failed yet, so the four-year cycle is still intact until it isn't. I have stretched this chart out for the next couple of years so that you can get a good idea of where the potential bottom will be during the next bear market. I plan to accumulate as much as possible the closer it gets to 66k. If we do reach a 150-250k top this cycle then I will expect a bear market bottom between 66-76k. Watch my levels and use them as a guideline. Historically Bitcoin has NEVER returned to the price its low during the US election week: 2012 Election Week Low - $102016 Election Week Low - $7002020 Election Week Low - $13,2002024 Election Week Low - $66,800that brings us to now... if this doesn't indicate the current market sentiment then I don't know what will. There's a reason why many genius economists are speculating a 1 million dollar bitcoin in the next 8 years.

Everyone is too busy focusing on the wrong Technicals. Fear and Greed, RSI, MACD, Stock Markets, etc. All of these are good tools but we have to remember a few things:1. Zoom out (Bitcoin follows the same 4-year cycle every time... this time is NOT different)2. Keep it Simple (I'm tired of messy charts, only put what you need for the current timeframe)3. Avoid Leverage (These areas are too risky and much too volatile... liquidity is getting grabbed at almost every level) Stay safe.I expect Bitcoin to retrace to 57k and then bounce back up... clear skies ahead if we can break out of this pattern I have drawn up. (If not we keep ranging as follows until we break significantly above the previous ATH) Peace out! It's been fun... I may return to crypto one day (if ykyk)

Bitcoin's price action continues to show a strong bullish trend.4f 6e 20 46 72 69 64 61 79 2c 20 66 6f 6c 6c 6f 77 69 6e 67 20 74 68 65 20 72 65 6c 65 61 73 65 20 6f 66 20 74 68 65 20 4e 46 50 20 64 61 74 61 2c 20 42 69 74 63 6f 69 6e 20 65 78 70 65 72 69 65 6e 63 65 64 20 61 20 73 68 61 72 70 20 64 72 6f 70 2e 20 48 6f 77 65 76 65 72 2c 20 62 79 20 74 68 65 20 65 6e 64 20 6f 66 20 74 68 65 20 64 61 79 2c 20 74 68 65 20 70 72 69 63 65 20 66 61 69 6c 65 64 20 74 6f 20 67 61 69 6e 20 66 75 72 74 68 65 72 20 64 6f 77 6e 73 69 64 65 20 6d 6f 6d 65 6e 74 75 6d 2c 20 61 6e 64 20 69 6e 73 74 65 61 64 20 6f 66 20 63 6f 6e 74 69 6e 75 69 6e 67 20 6c 6f 77 65 72 20 74 6f 20 74 65 73 74 20 74 68 65 20 73 75 70 70 6f 72 74 20 6f 66 20 74 68 65 20 66 6c 61 67 20 66 6f 72 6d 61 74 69 6f 6e 20 28 77 68 65 72 65 20 42 69 74 63 6f 69 6e 20 68 61 73 20 62 65 65 6e 20 74 72 61 64 69 6e 67 20 66 6f 72 20 74 68 65 20 70 61 73 74 20 73 69 78 20 6d 6f 6e 74 68 73 29 2c 20 69 74 20 72 65 76 65 72 73 65 64 20 74 6f 20 74 68 65 20 75 70 73 69 64 65 2e36 38 20 74 68 6F 75 73 61 6E 64 20 69 73 20 77 68 61 74 20 77 65 20 77 61 6E 74Boring price actionPray to God that we break this fib channel

An idea based on what has happened previously this year. If we zoom out on the chart and look at the bigger picture we will realize that the short-term hoopla does not matter in retrospect.Next week price action will be very telling.The next leg up is loading...Today's daily close is very importantCycle may be delayed