NewThoughtCrypto

This is a Bitcoin TA article. In it, I will review the bullish and bearish scenarios. I will also provide price and time cutoff points, which could help us find trade opportunities. Short-Term Bias is Bullish: Before reviewing potential scenarios, I want to clarify one point: regardless of whether Bitcoin is long-term bearish or bullish, I expect a short-term upside in the coming days and weeks. The only question is how high it will go and how long it will last. I am optimistic about the short-term because Bitcoin is in the initial stages of the 60-day cycle that began on March 14, and the broader 200-day cycle is also in its early phase. Thus, when both the short and medium-term cycles trend upwards, Bitcoin is bullish, at least for the short-term. Figure 1: Bitcoin Cycles The Bearish Scenario: Let’s begin with the bearish scenario. In this case, Bitcoin has completed primary wave five, and the correction in primary wave A is currently in progress. Primary wave A consists of an ABC structure, with the A wave likely completed. Currently, it appears to be in the initial stages of wave B. If this assumption holds, the likely target for wave B is the 0.618 retracement of A, both in terms of price and time, which sets our price target at 97K and our time target for April 7th or later. Figure 2: The Bearish Scenario The Bullish Scenario: The bullish scenario posits that within primary wave five, Bitcoin completed intermediate wave four on March 14, and that intermediate wave five is about to commence. In this case, the likely target for wave five lies between 111K and 117K, although it could extend even higher. The time ratio for the fifth wave is 0.618 of the duration of wave three, which brings us to April 21. Figure 3: The Bullish Scenario Short-Term Minimum Target: Even if we assume Bitcoin is bearish and that we are about to enter a prolonged correction period, I still expect Bitcoin to retrace 50% of wave A, which also marks the intersection of the upward and downward sloping channels. This retest could occur as early as Monday, March 17th, the soonest decision point. A cross above the 50% retracement and entry into the upward sloping channel will signal a bullish bias. A rejection from the 50% line and a continuation lower will strengthen the bearish bias. Figure 4: Minimum Short – Term Max Target: The maximum target suggests an extended fifth wave, and in that scenario, Bitcoin could reach as high as $123K, representing the 1.272 extension as early as April 13th. These points of price and time intersect along the 45-degree angle that marked the top of primary waves one and three. Wave five can extend even more, but at this point it is hopeium. Figure 5: Max Target Additional Considerations: Yearly Cycles. In the last four years, Bitcoin reached an intermediate top between mid-March and mid-April. However, on March 14, 2020, it indicated the bottom before a bull run. I am leaning toward the bear case because March 2020 was an exceptional year due to the COVID crisis. Fed Pivot. The next FOMC meeting is on March 19th. According to CME’s Fed Watch tool, the Fed will unlikely pivot on March 19th. Whether it does or doesn’t pivot on March 19th, the latest inflation data increases the chances of a pivot soon, which could ignite the final fifth wave and the blow-off top. Figure 6: Yearly Cycles Bitcoin Dream: This is a “feel good” scenario. If everything aligns, it could become a reality. Figure 7: Bitcoin Dream

Before I begin, let’s outline the facts: 1.Bitcoin has been in an uptrend since November of 2021. 2.Bitcoin completed the four primary waves, and it is in primary wave 5. 3.Bitcoin’s price surpassed the typical target for a fifth wave, which is the 0.618 Fib Extension. I conclude that the odds of a trend reversal are higher than the odds of a continuation. Where should we look for a top? Predicting the exact time and date is a fool’s errand. However, we do have a guideline. The point at which time and price meet. Price: The 1:1 Fibonacci extension is at 107K Time: Based on the 1:1 Fibonacci time ratio between waves one and five, the time is December 27th. The 1:1 Gann Fan angle perfectly expresses this price-to-time ratio. The price has respected this angle for three years and will continue to do so. The 1:1 angle is dynamic; the point at which price and time meet could be a bit higher or lower than 107K. The date at which price and time meet could be a bit earlier or a bit later. Regardless, it is close.

1. Market Structure: 1.1 HTF Analysis: Bitcoin has been trading in a downward-sloping channel Since March of 2024. Bitcoin failed to break out above the channel resistance four times. “The trend is your friend until it ends.” There is no evidence to suggest that the current trend will be different. Bias: Short. Figure 1: BTC HTF M.S. 1.2 LTF Analysis: The Daily chart is bullish. Bitcoin held the 60K HL and made a double bottom. As long as the 60K support holds, the bias is bullish. Bias: Long. Figure 2: BTC LTF M.S. 1.3 M.S. Summary: The LTF is bullish, and there is no sign of weakness yet. Initiating a short position is premature, but profit-taking at the top is a no-brainer. Invalidation: Breakout above 69K and successful retest. 2. Support and Resistance: 2.1 Resistance: Dynamic Resistance: Channel resistance at 68.2K Horizontal Resistance: Between 69K and 70K. 2.2 Support: Horizontal Support: 60K Horizontal Support: Between 57.5K and 59K. Dynamic Support: 58K. 2.3 Support and Resistance Summary: Bitcoin is at resistance. At this point, there is no clear sign of rejection. As we get closer to the cycle’s completion (from October 18th), I expect BTC to generate signs of weakness. Figure 3: Bitcoin Support and Resistance Levels 3. Bitcoin Short Cycles: 3.1 60D Cycle: The 60D cycle began on September 6th. This cycle is 60% complete. The Next cycle trough will likely be on November 8th. Bias: Short, but not yet. Figure 4: Bitcoin 60D Cycle 3.2 100D Cycle: The 100D cycle Began on August 5th. This cycle is 70% complete. The next cycle trough will likely be on November 13th. Bias: Short. But not yet. Figure 5: Bitcoin 100D Cycle: 3.3 Cycle Summary: The odds favor a decline since the 60D and 100D cycles are in their final phase. If not immediately (Friday, October 18th), then as soon as next week (August 20th). 4. Volume: A high-volume node with little or no price movement can signal a coming top in an uptrend. The high-volume node on October 15th did not lead to a breakout, which signals weakening demand. There is no bearish divergence. Bias: Neutral Figure 6: Bitcoin Price Volume: 5. Momentum: 5.1 Daily RSI: Healthy. RSI is above 50, not oversold, and shows no bearish divergence. Figure 7: Bitcoin Daily RSI 5.2 4H RSI: The 4H TF RSI is oversold and shows a weak bearish divergence. Figure 8: Bitcoin 4H RSI Bias: Neutral 6. OI: A weak bearish divergence between price and OI/ Bias: Neutral. Figure 9: Bitcoin OI Summary: Although Bitcoin is in the process of topping out, there isn’t enough evidence to support placing a short trade. However, it is advisable, in my opinion, to TP.

1. Market Structure: 1.1 HTF Analysis: Bitcoin has been trading in a downward-sloping channel Since March of 2024. Bitcoin failed to break out above the channel resistance four times. “The trend is your friend until it ends.” There is no evidence to suggest that the current trend will be different. Bias: Short. Figure 1: BTC HTF M.S. 1.2 LTF Analysis: The Daily chart is bullish. Bitcoin held the 60K HL and made a double bottom. As long as the 60K support holds, the bias is bullish. Bias: Long. Figure 2: BTC LTF M.S. 1.3 M.S. Summary: The LTF is bullish, and there is no sign of weakness yet. Initiating a short position is premature, but profit-taking at the top is a no-brainer. Invalidation: Breakout above 69K and successful retest. 2. Support and Resistance: 2.1 Resistance: Dynamic Resistance: Channel resistance at 68.2K Horizontal Resistance: Between 69K and 70K. 2.2 Support: Horizontal Support: 60K Horizontal Support: Between 57.5K and 59K. Dynamic Support: 58K. 2.3 Support and Resistance Summary: Bitcoin is at resistance. At this point, there is no clear sign of rejection. As we get closer to the cycle’s completion (from October 18th), I expect BTC to generate signs of weakness. Figure 3: Bitcoin Support and Resistance Levels 3. Bitcoin Short Cycles: 3.1 60D Cycle: The 60D cycle began on September 6th. This cycle is 60% complete. The Next cycle trough will likely be on November 8th. Bias: Short, but not yet. Figure 4: Bitcoin 60D Cycle 3.2 100D Cycle: The 100D cycle Began on August 5th. This cycle is 70% complete. The next cycle trough will likely be on November 13th. Bias: Short. But not yet. Figure 5: Bitcoin 100D Cycle: 3.3 Cycle Summary: The odds favor a decline since the 60D and 100D cycles are in their final phase. If not immediately (Friday, October 18th), then as soon as next week (August 20th). 4. Volume: A high-volume node with little or no price movement can signal a coming top in an uptrend. The high-volume node on October 15th did not lead to a breakout, which signals weakening demand. There is no bearish divergence. Bias: Neutral Figure 6: Bitcoin Price Volume: 5. Momentum: 5.1 Daily RSI: Healthy. RSI is above 50, not oversold, and shows no bearish divergence. Figure 7: Bitcoin Daily RSI 5.2 4H RSI: The 4H TF RSI is oversold and shows a weak bearish divergence. Figure 8: Bitcoin 4H RSI Bias: Neutral 6. OI: A weak bearish divergence between price and OI/ Bias: Neutral. Figure 9: Bitcoin OI https://www.tradingview.com/x/wOoJWX7k 7 Summary: Although Bitcoin is in the process of topping out, there isn’t enough evidence to support placing a short trade. However, it is advisable, in my opinion, to TP.

Is Bitcoin Bullish? The controversy in the crypto market between the “bulls” and the “bears” is at a peak. The issue seems to be the supposed effect of the latest rate cut. Can rate cuts reverse the downtrend? This flour has already been grounded, and nothing I say or do will change anyone’s opinion. I aim to present an objective measure based on Price and not opinion that will give us a conclusive and irrefutable answer to the question: Is Bitcoin Bullish? A downtrend is defined as a series of consecutive lower highs and lower lows. In that respect, there is no dispute that Bitcoin has been in a downtrend From March 13th until August 25th. The controversy began on September 6th because, on September 6th, Bitcoin failed to make a lower low. However, until today, it didn’t make a higher high either. Image 1: Bitcoin March 13th – September 6th: The coming week or two will put all this debate to rest. Bullish Scenario: Bitcoin is bullish if: 1.It makes a higher high (daily close) above 65,175. 2.A lower high, higher than 57,446. Should Bitcoin close a daily candle above 65.175K and the subsequent pullback holds above 58K, Bitcoin is a buy because price is king. Image 2: Bitcoin bullish scenario. Bearish Scenario: Bitcoin is bearish if: 1.It fails to make a higher high above 65.175K. 2.Even if it does make a higher high, the following low must be higher than 58K. Image 3: Bitcoin Bearish Scenario: If you feel FOMO, let me assure you that the market always gives you a second chance. If Bitcoin is going to 100K and above, you will have many stops to get in or out. Nothing in this chart “screams” a buy signal. Best Wishes

TLDR: The prevailing concept in CT is that once the Fed begins a QE cycle, prices of financial assets immediately shoot up. The data from two previous cycles tell a different story. The market doesn’t immediately react to rate cuts, if at all. It is after the rate cuts ended that the uptrend begins. 2007/2008 Rate Cut Cycle: Based on historical data from 2007 and 2008, Nasdaq 100. The first month of QE resulted in a bullish response. However, it was followed by a downtrend until the rates were zero. 2019/2020 Rate Cut Cycle: Based on the BLX chart. Excluding the initial bullish reaction, this QE cycle did not affect Bitcoin’s price. After rates were at zero, Bitcoin’s uptrend began. Takeaways From Previous QE Cycles 1. Fed cuts don’t change the trend. At least until the cutting cycle is over. 2. Even if we assume a bullish reaction, it is short-lived. 3. The Fed is late in responding to market conditions. 4. The chances of a 50% rate cut in September are low. 5. The Fed overreacts to recession conditions. 6. When the markets begin to tumble, it is a dumpster fire. The fed cannot put out the fire with rate cuts. Bitcoin Cycle Analysis: My macro-outlook for Bitcoin remains that Bitcoin is in the process of completing a wave four correction, after which I expect a continuation of the bullish trend to at least 80K. Within the wave four correction, the two primary scenarios are: Complex Correction: This scenario presumes that Bitcoin is in a wave four correction. According to this scenario, the final leg down in wave C of Y is missing. If this is the “correct” scenario, Bitcoin should begin wave C to the downside after hitting the reversal zone between 0.618 and 0.786 retracements. ABCDE Triangle Breakout: According to this scenario, Bitcoin’s wave four bottom was on August 5th. Bitcoin consolidates in an ABCDE triangle before breaking out to the upside in the final 5th wave. If this is the “correct” scenario, Bitcoin is close to the 0.618 retracement. I expect it to be rejected between 61.1K and 62.5K (wick) to complete the final E wave. This will become the primary scenario if it can find support at around 54K and break out of the triangle. Direct Breakout Scenario: This scenario assumes that Bitcoin finished the correction process on September 6th and is now on the verge of a breakout. Even if this is the “correct” scenario, I expect a pullback to 57K - 58K before continuing. High Probability Support and Resistance Levels: 1. 65K. Resistance. 2. 62.5K. Resistance. 3. 61K. Resistance. 4. 58K. Support. 5. 56K. Support. 6. 54K. Support.

TLDR: My base case is that next week, Bitcoin will make another LL. I expect volatility and at least one shakeout. Ultimately, Bitcoin will reach a low between 47K – 49K. After making the low, bitcoin will begin a relief rally, lasting until after the Fed meeting on September 17th. My analysis of Bitcoin’s reaction to the previous rate cut in 2020 points to a temporary relief rally and a resumption of the downtrend. However, this rally can be savage and even go beyond the previous high of 65K. If I am correct, next week will be extremely difficult to trade. My best bet is to wait for 49K to get hit and buy with low leverage or wait for a trend reversal confirmation. I realize I strayed from the conventional interpretation of a corrective WXYZ. Some of you were kind enough to reach out and offer your opinion. I will include these as alternative scenarios. Bitcoin Macro Outlook: I believe Bitcoin is in the final stages of a complex wave four correction. After This correction period, I expect a continuation in wave five to around 80K. Where do I draw the line? Price: A weekly close below 43.6K, which is the 0.618 of wave 3. Time: if this correction lasts after October 2024. Figure 1: Macro Outlook. Figure 2: Bitcoin Correction Price & Time Limits. Bitcoin Short-Term Outlook: The selling pressure on Bitcoin is close to exhaustion. However, I still expect the price to make an LL next week. I outlined the path the price will take. “No plan survives first contact with the enemy” (Helmuth von Moltke). The vital part of the plan is for the price to make a double-bottom scenario at around 49K. Invalidation is next. Figure 3: Bitcoin Short-Term Outlook. Bitcoin Short-Term Outlook Invalidation: Bitcoin holds the trendline and advances in a triangle breakout. This scenario is less likely for two reasons: 1. Because of the violation of the Gann Angle (2/1). 2. The daily wick from August 5th has yet to be filled. Figure 4: Bitcoin Short-Term Invalidation. Figure 5: Gann Angles & Wick Fill. Time Over Price: Gann believed that "Time is the most important factor of all." He argued that when sufficient time has elapsed, it could overbalance price, leading to a change in market trends. My premise is that we are due for a short relief rally after next week. Whatever happens after September 14th, I will look for long trades. Best Wishes

TLDR: My bias remains bearish. According to my analysis, Bitcoin is in a complex WXYXZ correction. Ultimately, this correction will lead Bitcoin to lower prices of as low as 45K, possibly lower. However, all hope is not lost for the bulls. The possibility of a bullish continuation exists under the following conditions: 1. Bitcoin must make an HH above 65K. 2. The correction period will not exceed beyond December 2024. 3. The price must stay above 49K. High Probability Scenario for September 1st – 7th. I expect Bitcoin to dip into the daily demand zone (54K-56K). This will end Wave A, and a bullish reaction will follow in Wave B. Trade Idea: Entry: 56K SL: below 54K Target: 62.5K. R: R: 1:3.3 Don’t set a limit order. Follow the PA. Price can reverse slightly above 56K or further into the demand zone. Low Probability Scenario for September 1st – 7th. Bitcoin continues to make an HH, completing wave 1 of 5. Trade Idea: Entry: 66K SL: 67.3K TP1 58K, TP2, 55K R: R to first TP is 1:6 Is a 100K Bitcoin Still Possible? Bitcoin’s wave 3 top was 73.777K on March 13th, 2024. Since making the ATH, Bitcoin has been in a wave 4 correction. As far as the criteria for invalidation are concerned, a continuation in wave 5 is still possible. A continuation in Wave 5 is possible as long as: 1. Price: The price doesn’t close a weekly candle below the 0.618 retracement at 43.5K. 2. Time: Theoretically, wave 4 can last 300% longer than wave 3 and is still considered valid. However, this is a textbook definition, and I think it’s senseless. Between 1 and 1.618, fib time is realistic. According to this criterion, Bitcoin must enter wave 5 territory between September 9th and December 30th. You must understand that the longer Bitcoin stays in a correction, the bigger the chances of the macro headwinds catching up with Bitcoin and cutting any bullish continuation at the knees. China is already experiencing a recession, or, at the least, an economic slowdown coupled with deflation. So is the EU and the U.S. I don’t want to go into the details of each Zone’s economic performance, but if you are economically savvy, you already know the score. As I see it, Bitcoin must begin wave 5 no later than October 2024; otherwise, it will be too late. Also, for a realistic chance at 100K per Bitcoin, 49K must be the lowest price. 100K Bitcoin Roadmap: From a macro view, we must assume that 49K was the lowest point in a WXY complex correction and that Bitcoin is already at the initial stage of wave 5. Wave 5 Roadmap: For a realistic chance of continuation in wave 5, we must assume that 49K was the end of a complex WXY correction in wave 4. Also, Bitcoin must make an HH in wave 1 of 5 as early as next week! After making an HH in wave 1, Bitcoin must retrace in wave 2, no lower than 0.786 retracement at 52.8K. Bitcoin can then push higher in wave 3 to the 1.618 extension at 81K. Retrace in wave 4 to 70K and push higher between 90K and 100K in wave 5. For this scenario to be realistic, Bitcoin must make an HH to around 66K next week—it then needs to hold above 53K in the wave 2 retracement. Without an HH or if it falls below 53K, the chances of continuation in wave 5 will significantly diminish. Gann Support to EW analysis: Pulling a Gann fan from the bottom of Wave 1 to the top of Wave 3 on a squared chart supports the EW analysis. From a Gann standpoint, the current support level for Bitcoin is the 2/1 angle at 55K. If Bitcoin doesn’t close a weekly candle below 55K, it is good for continuation. Lose 55K, and it will continue lower. Daily Chart Analysis The daily chart analysis remains almost the same as the previous weeks. 58K is the most significant support level on the daily TF. If Bitcoin loses the 58K support without making an HH first, it will open Bitcoin to a bearish continuation. Initially, to fill the wicks on weekly and daily TFs but ultimately to 45K and possibly lower. The primary bias remains short. As Bitcoin continues to chop around the 200D EMA with low volatility, I am not interested in trading micro moves. If you intend to trade Bitcoin long, look for a break above the 200D EMA and a retest. Best wishes

Two scenarios for Bitcoin. Both options will result in lower prices in the short term. However, one is bullish, the other is bearish: My view is that the correction period is not over. I am intellectually honest enough to entertain both options, but I must be truthful with myself and you: I don’t think the Bull’s time has come. TLDR: The bulls have a chance as long as the price is above 60.3K. 1. Bullish Scenario: According to this scenario, 49K was the end point of a wave 4 correction, and Bitcoin is about to complete wave 5. If this is the case, the target is between the 0.618 and 1:1 retracement. In numbers: 79.2K – 97.9K. Supporting evidence for the bullish scenario: A. HH on the daily TF. B. Bitcoin formed the cup of a Cup & Handle, which could lead to a breakout with a price target of 76.5K and the completion of the higher degree 5th wave. 2. Bearish Scenario: According to this scenario, Bitcoin is not done with the correction. Whether Bitcoin is a more extensive correction that will result in much lower prices or is still in wave 4 is irrelevant. Supporting Evidence for the Bearish Scenario: A. The PA has moved in three waves, ABC. A three-wave move is a corrective structure that continues the higher TF trend down. This is indicative of a shark harmonic with a target of 46.8K. B. The weekly TF structure is bearish and points to 45K. C. Bitcoin left wicks to the downside on the higher TFs. The daily week is between 49 - 54K. The weekly wick is between 59K and 58K. This kind of imbalance represents a liquidation opportunity for the MM. D. No accumulation period. A prolonged accumulation period at the lows must support any substantial price growth. A structure without a base is vulnerable. Validation and invalidation: A. Validation: Bitcoin consolidates above 60.3K, the cup and handle pattern is intact, and the bullish scenario is alive. B. Invalidation: Below 60.3K, the bullish case is unlikely. Below 56K, the bull case is indefensible.

The AB=CD pattern is a four-point price harmonic, which involves a partial retracement of the initial price segment, followed by an equidistant move from the completion of the pullback. Not every impulse and retracement form an ABCD Pattern. I use it under two conditions: 1. AB is an Impulsive move. 2. Sharp retracement up followed by a sharp move down. Use a trendline as a guide. ABCD Targets: 1. A shallow continuation follows a deep retracement and vice versa. For example, if BNB retraces in C to 70% of AB, the D point is expected at 1.414. If it retraces to the 0.618 of AB, the D point is expected at 1.618. Your default should be the 1:1 extension. BNB is creating a nice ABCD With a target of 350$. Invalidation: Price > 544$