Technical analysis by NewThoughtCrypto about Symbol BTC on 9/8/2024

TLDR: My base case is that next week, Bitcoin will make another LL. I expect volatility and at least one shakeout. Ultimately, Bitcoin will reach a low between 47K – 49K. After making the low, bitcoin will begin a relief rally, lasting until after the Fed meeting on September 17th. My analysis of Bitcoin’s reaction to the previous rate cut in 2020 points to a temporary relief rally and a resumption of the downtrend. However, this rally can be savage and even go beyond the previous high of 65K. If I am correct, next week will be extremely difficult to trade. My best bet is to wait for 49K to get hit and buy with low leverage or wait for a trend reversal confirmation. I realize I strayed from the conventional interpretation of a corrective WXYZ. Some of you were kind enough to reach out and offer your opinion. I will include these as alternative scenarios. Bitcoin Macro Outlook: I believe Bitcoin is in the final stages of a complex wave four correction. After This correction period, I expect a continuation in wave five to around 80K. Where do I draw the line? Price: A weekly close below 43.6K, which is the 0.618 of wave 3. Time: if this correction lasts after October 2024. Figure 1: Macro Outlook. Figure 2: Bitcoin Correction Price & Time Limits. Bitcoin Short-Term Outlook: The selling pressure on Bitcoin is close to exhaustion. However, I still expect the price to make an LL next week. I outlined the path the price will take. “No plan survives first contact with the enemy” (Helmuth von Moltke). The vital part of the plan is for the price to make a double-bottom scenario at around 49K. Invalidation is next. Figure 3: Bitcoin Short-Term Outlook. Bitcoin Short-Term Outlook Invalidation: Bitcoin holds the trendline and advances in a triangle breakout. This scenario is less likely for two reasons: 1. Because of the violation of the Gann Angle (2/1). 2. The daily wick from August 5th has yet to be filled. Figure 4: Bitcoin Short-Term Invalidation. Figure 5: Gann Angles & Wick Fill. Time Over Price: Gann believed that "Time is the most important factor of all." He argued that when sufficient time has elapsed, it could overbalance price, leading to a change in market trends. My premise is that we are due for a short relief rally after next week. Whatever happens after September 14th, I will look for long trades. Best Wishes