Mihai_Iacob

Yesterday, after revisiting the 4,000 support zone as expected and explained in my previous analysis, Gold bounced strongly and tested the area above 4,100. That rally delivered around 800 pips profit on my long trade, and now the market is showing a mild pullback, consolidating around 4,085. The key question now: 👉 Is the overall correction over, or is there still more to unfold? From a technical perspective, as long as 4,000 remains intact, Gold retains its bullish potential toward the 4,200 resistance zone. However, I prefer to stay patient at the moment — being flat at the time of writing — and will wait for a potential dip toward 4,050 or slightly below. If the price shows a positive reaction in that area, I’ll consider re-entering long positions. 🎯 Upside targets: •First: 4,150 •Second: 4,200 Keeping a positive risk-reward balance remains the main priority. 🚀 Let’s see if the market confirms the plan.

There are plenty of lessons to take from Gold’s recent rollercoaster — lessons about volatility, psychology, and how easily conviction can turn into chaos. But before we get into technicalities, let’s look at what really happened… and what it means for us as traders. ________________________________________ 1️⃣ The Illusion of Strength When Gold went straight from 4000 to 4400 in just a few days, the move looked unstoppable. Social media was full of confidence — “China is buying”, “5k incoming”, “This is the new era for Gold.” But markets don’t move in straight lines forever. Every parabolic rise eventually collapses under its own weight. And when it does, it doesn’t just destroy buy positions — it destroys false convictions. The first lesson? Moves that look too strong to fade are usually too weak to sustain. ________________________________________ 2️⃣ Confidence Can Be Expensive Believing too much in one direction — especially when price already exploded (see the rise from 3300 to 4k in one month) — is one of the fastest ways to lose money. A trader who bought at 4350 because he was “sure” China would keep buying quickly learned how expensive “sure” can be. The market doesn’t reward conviction. It rewards discipline, flexibility, and risk control. Confidence without control is just another form of gambling. ________________________________________ 3️⃣ Trading ≠ Investing This move also reminded everyone of a fundamental truth: You are not China. China buys Gold as a store of value, not as a speculative trade. They bought at 2500, 3k, 3.5k and 4400 — not to take profit in two days, but to build long-term reserves. You, as a trader, operate in a completely different universe. Mixing trading logic with investment narratives is a silent killer. You might tell yourself, “If China buys, I’m safe.” But China doesn’t use a stop loss and don't trade in margin (use laverage),— YOU DO. If you don’t understand the difference, better stay on the sidelines and watch. At least you won’t lose money while learning the hard way. And if you want a more down-to-earth comparison — my mother started buying Gold in the early ’70s, as a store of value through the communist period. She bought through the gold bubble of the late 1970s, bought at the bottom afterward, continued through the 1990s, and kept doing it until she retired in 2005. She wasn’t trading — she was preserving value. That’s what investing is. What we do here, every day, is something entirely different. ________________________________________ 4️⃣ Right vs. Wrong? It’s Not About That And now that we’ve made the distinction between investing and trading clear,we must also understand something even more important: Trading is not about being right or wrong — it’s about timing, money management, and perspective. Let’s take a few real examples from last few day's chaos: •On Friday, if you bought at 4275 and the price spiked overnight, you could’ve closed with 1000 pips profit — you were “right.” •But if someone else sold at 4370 during that same night, they were also “right,” catching the drop. •If you had bought the dip from the all-time high, around 4300, you’d likely be down 1000 pips in drawdown quickly same Friday — and let’s be honest, who really holds that? •If you sold at 4300 on Monday near resistance, you would have been stopped out as price revisited the ATH — even though your direction was correct eventually. •Likewise, if you bought yesterday at 4200 during the drop, you’d have been liquidated on the next 2000-pip fall. And if Gold now rises again to 4400 or even 5000 — how does that help you? Obviously, these are illustrative examples, just to express the point — not literal trades. And for those who commented under previous posts — either out of boredom or the need to contradict — I have two things to say: 1️⃣ If you don’t understand what I just explained, you have no business being in trading. 2️⃣ If you do understand but still feel the urge to argue, your comment is nothing more than trolling and emotional projection. Because this isn’t about numbers or ego — it’s about understanding how the market really works, beyond the noise and the narratives. ________________________________________ 5️⃣ The Real Lesson The 4000–4400 move wasn’t just a chart pattern. It was a psychological test — a reminder that the market exists to expose overconfidence. When something looks “certain,” that’s usually when it’s most dangerous. In trading, survival matters more than prediction. And sometimes, the smartest trade is no trade at all. ________________________________________ 6️⃣ Final Thoughts Gold’s rollercoaster taught more than a dozen books on trading psychology ever could. It reminded us that: •Parabolic moves end violently. •Overconfidence without a stop loss is suicide. •You’re not an investor — you’re a trader. •Being “right” means nothing without timing. •And sometimes, the best position is to stay out. The market didn’t just move from 4000 to 4400 and back. It moved through the hearts and minds of every trader watching it —and left behind a few lessons worth remembering for a lifetime.

The last 24 hours in Gold trading were absolutely insane. After retesting the 4400 zone all-time high last night, XAUUSD literally collapsed, dropping straight to the 4000 zone in just one day — a 10% move that’s unheard of for gold (at least I haven't seen). 1️⃣ Technical Picture Once the price broke back below 4200, it confirmed a double top formation, and the selloff accelerated dramatically toward its measured target around 4000 — a level also supported by the ascending trendline that started in late August. 2️⃣ Current Context At the time of writing, gold already rebounded nearly 1300 pips from the low, which means there’s no attractive level to enter long right now, even though the recovery might continue in the short term. 3️⃣ Key Levels to Watch •Resistance: 4200 zone – now turned into a major resistance. If the price revisits this level, I’ll be looking for short setups, ideally on intraday spikes. •Support: 4000 zone – if the price dips again before testing resistance, it could offer long opportunities from this confluence area. 4️⃣ Trading Plan In short, we’re in a wide range between 4000 and 4200, both levels offering potential trades but in opposite directions. For now, I’ll stay patient and wait for price to get closer to one of these extremes before taking action. ⚠️ Final Note Volatility is off the charts, so if you decide to trade XAUUSD these days, adjust your stop losses and targets accordingly. This is not the time for tight stops, is time for patience, and flexibility. 🚀

Yesterday marked another strong bullish session for Gold, as the price completely erased Friday’s losses, confirming that buyers are far from done. Regardless of how high the market has already climbed, momentum remains firmly on the bullish side. Technically, Gold managed to reclaim and break above the 4285–4300 resistance zone, which triggered a sharp acceleration toward the recent all-time high around 4380. At the time of writing, the market is undergoing a normal retracement, which is a healthy technical reaction after such an aggressive move. The 4300 area has now turned into key short-term support, and as long as bulls defend this level, the probability of a new ATH remains high. From a trading perspective, however, volatility has reached extreme levels. This type of price action often favors large players with fundamental reasons rather than discretionary traders. For that reason, I prefer to stay on the sidelines today, waiting for volatility to stabilize before engaging again.

Last week has been a wild ride for Gold traders, with the price rallying aprox 4,000 pips (around 10%), only to sell off 2,000 pips on Friday in what many expected to be a well-deserved correction. The big question now is: was that correction enough, or is Gold preparing for another leg down before continuing higher? In my view, this was just the first leg of the correction, and I expect another wave of selling to come this week. Currently, Gold is recovering from Friday’s sharp drop, and this rebound could potentially push prices back above 4,300. If that happens, I’ll be watching closely for signs of weakness to position myself short. Overall, I believe a new test of the 4,200 area is likely before any sustainable recovery can take place.

Gold rose this week — so far (and I really want to stress so far ) — by around 10%. That’s massive by any standard. On Monday, I tried to catch a dip and missed it. Since Tuesday, I’ve been on the sell side — completely wrong on direction , yet somehow still managed to finish positive overall. Yesterday my stop got hit, but after what happened overnight, it turned out to be just a scratch. With this kind of volatility, a recovery of 250pips can happen in ten minutes. Looking at the chart — it’s bullish, no question. Should it be bought? Hmmmm... Looking at the volatility… for me, it’s become untradeable. Can it keep going higher? Of course. How high? Nobody knows. At this point, any prediction is just throwing numbers in the air. Trading corrections, as I’ve tried to do, is a guessing game. I’ve had some luck so far, but after yesterday's stop loss, I’m stepping aside. My take: stay out. Let others make money if they can. A 1,000-pip rise and an equal reversal — all while I was asleep (and trust me, I sleep very little) — is too crazy. Stops can be wiped for bulls just as easily as for bears. At some point, it will settle down and define its levels. Until then — it’s not for me anymore.

Friday’s crash took DOGE below two key support zones — first, the ascending trendline around 0.23, and then the horizontal support near 0.21. After the drop, DOGE attempted a recovery that only brought it back to retest the broken 0.21 level, which has now turned into resistance. The price has since started to roll back down. At this stage, if the negative sentiment across the crypto market continues, the probability of a deeper correction remains high — with the next significant target around 0.15. Only a sustained move above 0.21 would neutralize this bearish scenario and open the path for a potential rebound.

I’m struggling to maintain my bullishness lately — not because of Friday’s crash, but because, regardless of what timeframe I analyze, I just can’t find a convincing bullish bias anymore. On the weekly chart, the structure looks increasingly fragile. After breaking above the 108k zone in mid-summer, Bitcoin pushed to a new ATH around 125k, then pulled back to retest the broken resistance. That was fine — a normal retest within a healthy uptrend. But what followed wasn’t. The price made a new, but very anemic all-time high, showing a clear lack of momentum, and then dropped again to the same support area. Even if this drop was provoked, the fact that BTC returned so quickly to that zone makes me question the strength of any potential reversal. From a technical standpoint, if we ignore the reasons and look only at the chart, the last 3.5 months resemble more of a distribution phase rather than a solid consolidation before another leg up. If Bitcoin breaks below the 108k support, the next logical target sits around 100k. But considering the long-term structure I’ve shown on the weekly chart, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a deeper correction toward 90k. The bulls are still in the game, but they’re losing ground — and unless BTC shows strength soon, the market might be preparing for another leg down before any sustainable recovery

As we’ve grown used to by now, Gold sets a new ATH almost every day — and by the time we, in Europe, wake up, it’s already 300–400 pips higher. Yet despite the strong bullish momentum, speculative trading remains extremely difficult. Sudden drops of hundreds of pips can easily hit your stop loss if your entry timing isn’t perfect. From my perspective — even though I don’t have an open position — the idea remains the same: a correction is inevitable. Since Friday’s low, the price has rallied around 3,000 pips — a fabulous move, but like any late-stage rally, it’s becoming excessive and irrational (even more than it already was). Of course, it can always go higher, but the more it exaggerates, the faster it tends to normalize. As I mentioned before, my approach remains focused on identifying potential tops — and while that’s the riskiest thing a trader can do, it has worked quite well during the sharp downward spikes of the last two weeks. Technically, the move from Friday’s low is forming a rising wedge, with resistance around 4270, which is where I’ll be looking to sell. The target zone is roughly 1,000 pips lower. One encouraging factor — even more so than before — is the noticeable narrowing of the spread between futures and spot, now at just 0.2–0.25%, compared to the usual ~1% (and sometimes higher) during strong bullish phases.

I’ve been bullish on gold since the beginning of the year — expecting it to reach $3000, and in a very optimistic scenario, maybe even $3500. My previous posts are proof of that. But I definitely wasn’t expecting $4000, and certainly not $4200, for one simple reason: Some time ago, my crystal ball broke, and since then I’ve been trying to base my trades on technical analysis and what I’ve actually seen happen in the past — not on wishful thinking. ________________________________________ When Price Doesn’t Correct, But You Still Profit Selling Ever since gold hit the $3700–$3800 zone, I’ve been expecting a correction. It never came. Even so, I still made money selling against the trend — something I usually avoid and definitely don’t recommend anyone to do. But this post isn’t about my trades. It’s about why I didn’t buy gold in the last two or three weeks. And the answer is right there — on the chart. ________________________________________ The Chart Tells the Truth If you look closely, you’ll see yellow rectangles highlighting the sharp drops that happened during this period. It’s easy to look at the chart after the fact and say: “I should’ve bought there.” But imagine you don’t see the right side of the chart. You’re sitting in front of your screen, looking at the current price, trying to decide what to do. And then — within minutes — gold drops 700-800 pips out of nowhere. No signal. No alert on WhatsApp. No warning. Where do you put your stop? Do you trade without one? Just because you know it will bounce? And what if it doesn’t? What if it drops another 1000 pips — the same way it just did — without even breathing? That’s not trading. That’s hope disguised as confidence. ________________________________________ This Is an Exercise in Honesty This is an exercise in honesty with yourself — not after you’ve seen the chart. How many of you would’ve stayed in a position that’s -500 pips, just because you “know” it will turn around? Even now, right after I finished recording the video, it dropped another 500+ pips like it was nothing. I’ve explained this a thousand times: 1.If a trade is not there, it’s not there. Period. I don’t force it. I don’t FOMO. 2.A trade must have a clear entry, stop, target — and most importantly, a reason. “Gold is rising, can’t you see?” is not a reason. It’s FOMO. ________________________________________ If You Want to Be a Real Trader, Remember This 1.The market has two directions, even when it looks like it only has one. 2.In aggressive trends, even my cat becomes a great trader. 3.Every trade must have a clear reason. If it doesn’t, and you enter just because “it’s going up”, that’s FOMO — and we all saw what happened to crypto in 2021. People are still waiting for the mythical altcoin season, while some are still 70- 90% down on the bag 4.We’re all geniuses after seeing the chart: “should’ve bought there, closed there…” 5.The only real truth is in your equity — and mine is higher, even though I’ve been selling. 6.I can guarantee there are gold bulls reading this right now who lost money on long positions over the past month. 7.In the end, it all comes down to money management and timing. ________________________________________ Conclusion: Trading isn’t about being bullish or bearish. It’s about being disciplined, timing and money management; the rest is can-can, and "I told you so" P.S. Once again, I’m looking to sell — and if it works out like my last five trades, that’s perfectly fine with me. At the club, they don’t ask whether I paid for my champagne with profits from buying or selling gold. 🍾