Mihai_Iacob

In my previous ETH analysis, I pointed out the high probability of a false breakdown under the 4100 technical support and the 4000 psychological level. The reasoning was simple: during the strong bull leg from 1350 to 4900 (since April), ETH had already shown this type of price action twice. That call proved correct. ETH reversed higher, hit my 4400 target, and even pushed further, printing highs close to 4600. Now, after a nearly 15% rise since last Friday, the market may be due for a pause — a chance to consolidate or correct part of the gains. ________________________________________ Technical View •Support: 4300 is the key level. As long as this holds, bulls remain in control. •Resistance: Immediate pressure sits near 4600, the recent top. •Structure: The trend remains strong and healthy, but after such a rapid move, short-term cooling is normal. ________________________________________ Trading Plan The strategy remains simple: buy dips against 4300. As long as that support is intact, ETH’s bull case stays firmly alive. 🚀

Since Monday, I’ve been writing about the high probability of a correction after Gold’s impressive rise that started on 20 August. My point was simple: even the strongest bullish trends are not one-way streets — retracements are part of the journey. Yesterday proved that idea once again. After initially finding support near the 3860 zone, Gold staged a weak bounce, even printing a fresh but fragile ATH. However, that move was quickly reversed as sellers stepped in aggressively, triggering four consecutive hours of selling, almost a mirror image of Tuesday’s drop. From the local low at 3818, Gold managed a rebound and, at the time of writing, trades around 3846 — a natural recovery after such a sharp decline. ________________________________________ The Bigger Picture The broader trend is undeniably bullish, and I don’t expect that to change anytime soon. But a more meaningful correction looks increasingly likely in the coming days. Why do I call it meaningful? Because if we zoom out on the daily chart, we see that since late August, Gold has been in a near straight-line rise. Apart from a two-day pullback in mid-September and a minor setback on the 24th, every dip has been shallow, intraday, and quickly erased. This type of price action cannot last forever. Markets need breathers, even in uptrends. ________________________________________ Key Technical Levels •Resistance: The 3900 zone now acts as a strong ceiling, capping bullish attempts. •Support: Bears could eye the 3790 zone first, with the potential for a deeper move toward 3700 if pressure intensifies. ________________________________________ Trading Plan The strategy, in my view, remains unchanged: sell rallies until a proper correction develops. The big trend is still bullish — but even bulls must allow the market to breathe. 🚀

Two days ago, in my last BTC analysis, I mentioned that bulls had to defend 112k at all costs. Losing it would have opened the gates toward 100k. Fortunately for the bullish camp, the defense worked. Bitcoin didn’t just hold the line—it pushed higher and broke through the 115k resistance, which had been reinforced by a falling trendline. Now, with price trading around 118,600, the market is once again staring at the critical 120k barrier. ________________________________________ Why 120k Is So Important •BTC has already tested this level twice this year, only to be rejected both times. •Each failure sparked corrections, making 120k not just a number but a milestone for sentiment and structure. •If bulls can finally conquer and hold above it, the door to new all-time highs swings open. ________________________________________ Technical Structure •108k: A solid support. •112k: The battleground of the past few months—resistance, support, resistance, etc is now reconquered. •Trendline Break: The falling trendline gave way, giving bulls the momentum they needed. The chart is building constructively, with strong supports. ________________________________________ Third Time’s a Charm? Markets don’t often give three chances at the same key level. The third test usually decides the story. My stance: buy dips. As long as 112k remains intact, I expect BTC to break 120k and head toward a new ATH. So, will 120k finally fall on the third attempt? My conviction is stronger than before. 🚀We are above 120k 125k could be short term target

Introduction Most professions operate within clear boundaries of right and wrong, success and failure. A doctor either saves the patient or doesn’t. An engineer either builds a stable bridge or one that collapses. But trading doesn’t work like that. In trading, “being right” and “being wrong” are relative. Two traders can look at the exact same market, take opposite positions, and both can be right. At the same time, they can both be wrong. This relativity is what makes trading not only fascinating, but also psychologically challenging. ________________________________________ Why “Being Right” Is an Illusion in Trading Many traders fall into the trap of needing to be right. They celebrate when their forecast matches the price action, and they criticize others when opinions diverge. But trading isn’t about intellectual debates — it’s about execution, timing, and money management. You can make the perfect call, but if you enter at the wrong time or exit poorly, you still lose. Conversely, you can be “wrong” in your forecast, yet still make money because you managed your trade correctly. ________________________________________ A Real Example: Gold’s Price Action Yesterday Take gold, for instance: •Trader A says: “Gold will rise.” •Trader B says: “Gold will fall.” Who is right? The answer is not straightforward. •Gold made a new all-time high during the day — Trader A can claim victory. •Gold sold off after — Trader B can also claim victory. But here’s the twist: •Trader A was wrong if he bought at the very top before the selloff. •Trader B was wrong if he sold too early at 3860 before the new ATH. This example shows how trading doesn’t operate in absolutes. The market gives both validation and punishment, depending not only on the direction, but also on timing and execution. ________________________________________ Timeframe Relativity: Scalper vs. Swing Trader This relativity becomes even more visible when we compare a scalper with a swing trader — in fact, this is where it shows itself most clearly. Consider this scenario: •The scalper buys against the larger trend, catching a quick 50-pip bounce from intraday volatility. •The swing trader sells with the dominant trend, holding for several days and capturing 300 pips once the broader move unfolds. At first glance, their positions contradict each other. One is long, the other is short. Yet both can be right — and both can make money — simply because they operate on different timeframes, with different objectives and risk tolerances. Don’t believe me? Here’s a real and concrete example: back in 2022, I shorted BTC heavily and made strong profits. At the same time, a good friend of mine kept buying into weakness and applying a DCA strategy. Who was right? The answer, again, is relative. I was right in the medium term — profiting from the bearish momentum. My friend was right in the long term — building a position that paid off when the market eventually recovered. This is the purest example of relativity in trading: the same market, moving in both directions, rewarding two very different strategies. ________________________________________ The Key Lesson Trading is not about proving a point. It’s not about winning an argument on social media or showing that your market call was correct. It’s about managing trades in a way that consistently extracts profits, regardless of who “guessed” the move better. The market doesn’t reward opinions. It rewards discipline and risk control. Always remember: •Entries are relative. •Exits define success. •Risk is king. A “right” prediction with poor risk management can still end in disaster. In other words: you don’t get paid for being right — you get paid for good execution and risk management. ________________________________________ Why Relativity Matters Understanding the relativity of trading helps in three ways: 1.It kills the ego. You stop caring about being right and start caring about making money. 2.It reduces conflicts. Another trader’s opposite view doesn’t threaten yours; both can co-exist. 3.It shifts focus. The conversation moves from “Was I right?” to “Was my trade profitable?” ________________________________________ Conclusion Trading is the most relative profession in the world because “truth” in markets is never absolute. Two traders can both be right, both be wrong, or both at once. What separates successful traders from the rest is not their ability to “predict,” but their ability to trade with discipline, adapt to changing conditions, and manage risk. In the end, the scoreboard is your trading account — not your pride in being right. 🚀

Yesterday’s Picture Gold opened the month with strength, pushing into uncharted territory and printing yet another all-time high, just shy of the 3900 figure. However, momentum faded quickly, and the market corrected lower, currently holding around the 3860 support zone — roughly 300 pips under the peak. 2.Key Question Has the correction already played out, or are we just at the beginning of a deeper move? 3.Why I See More Downside Ahead • Fragile bids: Looking back just two sessions, Tuesday’s sharp intraday selloff highlighted how quickly buyers can step aside at these stretched levels. • Short-term technicals: Price is still above immediate support and the rising trendline, keeping the structure bullish on paper — but this doesn’t erase the vulnerability. • Risk/reward misbalance: Buying directly into support after a fresh ATH might look attractive, but the risk of a sharp drop outweighs the potential reward. • Bigger picture context: Even if gold spikes once more to marginal highs, the corrective leg is unlikely to be over — in fact, it may only be starting. 4.Trading Plan My strategy remains unchanged: sell rallies. I’ll be watching for short-term strength to fade, especially around intraday resistance zones. For me, chasing longs here is not worth the exposure. 5.Final Thoughts The market remains technically bullish until support breaks, but under the surface, gold is fragile. From my perspective, the real move is still to the downside — and patience will pay off. 🚀This could very well be the start of a meaningful correction, not just a small one

What happened: After the low back in June at 0.62, ONDO delivered a 100% rally. As expected after such a move, the price corrected and then settled into a range. Key question: Is this strong bounce from support the beginning of the next leg up? Why I’m bullish: •The recent reversal from support shows buyers are defending the structure. •The first leg up measured a clean 100% move, and the current setup mirrors that strength. •By extension, a second leg of similar length could take ONDO above 1.50. Trading plan: •I remain bullish as long as 0.80 holds. •A continuation from here would confirm that the range is resolved to the upside, opening the path to 1.50+. Bottom line: ONDO combines strong fundamentals in tokenized real assets with a healthy technical picture. Support is clear and the potential reward above 1.50 is on the table. 🚀

1. Recap of Yesterday’s Key Move Yesterday was a decisive day for Gold traders, and it perfectly confirmed what I have been pointing out since Monday: at these elevated levels, Gold is extremely vulnerable. After printing yet another All-Time High overnight, the yellow metal sold off aggressively for nearly 5 hours straight, with losses amounting to almost 800 pips. Importantly, the bounce came exactly from the 23 September ATH level and by the end of the session, bulls managed to step in and regain control. ________________________________________ 2. Overnight Price Action Overnight, the asian session was once again bullish – Gold reached a fresh ATH at 3875, only to retreat slightly, which for now can be classified as nothing more than a shallow correction. Despite the recovery, what matters is not the new high, but the fragility revealed during yesterday’s sell-off. Momentum looks stretched, and price action confirms the market’s increasing instability. ________________________________________ 3. Technical Outlook From a structural point of view: •Price is still contained within the upper bullish channel. •Bulls have also managed to reclaim the median line, suggesting they are still in control. •However, the 800-pip collapse proved that even in such a strong uptrend, cracks are starting to show. Key levels to watch: •3830 → if this level breaks, the market could trigger a waterfall of selling. •3785-3790 → support that held before, but I believe this time it won’t survive. •3700 → the logical corrective target if 3780 is breached. ________________________________________ 4. Trading Mindset & Strategy Yesterday, I couldn’t sell into the initial drop — and that’s fine. Such a move was more about timing luck than pure skill. No frustration, because the analysis was right: fragility is here. From now on, my plan is clear: •I’ll be looking for structured patterns with larger targets. •Minimum: +1000 pips setups. •Stretch target: +1500 pips. ________________________________________ 5. Conclusion Gold remains in bullish mode on the surface, but yesterday’s sell-off clearly revealed how fragile and overstretched the trend has become. If 3830 fails, that could be the decisive moment when bulls finally lose control and the long-awaited correction accelerates. Until then, I will stay patient and disciplined, waiting for the market to provide a clean pattern with a strong risk/reward setup. 🚀Is this the beginning of the waterfall I kept predicting? 3855 holds the key

At the end of August, I wrote that as long as 190 remained intact, Solana had room to rise toward 250, and I suggested a buy around the 200 level. That trade worked beautifully, with price reaching as high as 254. From there, Solana started to roll over. At first, it looked like a normal correction, but the picture changed after a weak bounce attempt. Price broke decisively below 230, and the recent low was set right back at 190. Currently, Solana is recovering once again. However, the structure of this bounce looks corrective in nature, forming what appears to be a bearish flag. 🔑 Key levels to watch: •A break below the flag’s support – and more importantly below 200 – would likely trigger another leg down. •In that case, the market could head toward a 175–180 major support zone, which is the next critical area for buyers to defend. Until then, the bias remains cautious: Solana must prove it can break free from the corrective structure before bulls can regain control. 🚀

Last week in my BTC analysis, I mentioned that the price could reverse from the 108k zone. That scenario played out, and while this was a positive development, I also noted that bulls needed to reclaim 112k for a brighter outlook. The market delivered: BTC not only reversed but also broke back above 112k, pushing as high as just under 115k. Now, the 112k zone has become crucial for two reasons: 1. If bulls hold above 112k – it confirms strength and validates the recovery as a genuine move higher. 2. If price breaks back below 112k – the recent move above would be revealed as a false upside break, with 115k locked in as a new lower high and a potential descending triangle taking shape. With this in mind, I remain constructive on BTC. But the message is clear: 112k is the key level that will decide whether momentum continues or fades. 🚀BTC broke above the falling trend line

Thesis: If you don’t recalibrate your volatility expectations for Gold, you won’t survive this market. What felt like a “big move” in 2021 is just noise in 2025. ________________________________________ 1) Context: What Actually Happened (2020 → 2025) •2020–2023: Gold largely oscillated in a broad range around the $1,700–$2,000 handles (with occasional spikes beyond). Many traders anchored their risk and target expectations to this regime. •March–April 2024: A decisive breakout to fresh all-time highs shifted the regime from compression to expansion. •Late August 2025: Price broke out of a symmetrical triangle around the ~3330 zone and then advanced near-vertically into late September, ushering in a burst of exceptional volatility. Bottom line: The market transitioned from a four-year consolidation into a powerful expansion phase. Your playbook must evolve accordingly. ________________________________________ 2) Volatility Math: Same %, Bigger Dollars → Bigger “Pips” Many retail platforms quote XAUUSD so that 1 pip ≈ $0.10. Using that convention: •In the $1,900–$2,000 environment, a 2% move ≈ $38–$40 → 380–400 pips. •At $3,300–$3,800, the same 2% ≈ $66–$76 → 660–760 pips. So those “300–400 pip moves” you treated as significant in 2021 or2022 are structurally too small for 2025. In expansion phases, 1,000+ pip swings are perfectly normal. Key takeaway: If price doubles, absolute fluctuations for the same percentage move roughly double too. Stop using yesterday’s pip yardstick. ________________________________________ 3) Why Recalibration Matters The market is not static. Traders who survive across cycles are those who adapt to new volatility regimes. Anchoring to outdated benchmarks—whether in pips, percentage moves, or psychological comfort zones—leads to poor decisions. It is not enough to have a strategy. You need the right frame of reference for volatility, risk, and expectations. A system built for a $1,800 gold market cannot simply be copied and pasted into a $3,500 gold market without adjustment. ________________________________________ 4) The Psychological Shift Recalibration is not only technical but also mental: •Old anchors: What once felt like a big move is now an intraday fluctuation. •Risk perception: A number that once signaled danger may now be just routine volatility. •Flexibility: The willingness to redefine “normal” is the mark of a trader who lasts. This is not abstract theory. For example, I started writing this article when Gold was trading at 3860. By the time I reached this paragraph, price had already dropped to 3815, after making a low at 3810—an almost 700-pip drop from today’s all-time high in just three hours. By the time you read this, it may be trading at a completely different level. That’s the reality of expansion volatility. And here’s the perspective shift: these days, being happy about booking 100 pips on Gold is like being happy for 10 pips on EURUSD. It’s not that 100 pips don’t matter—it’s that the scale of the game has changed, and your mindset must change with it. ________________________________________ 5) Moving Forward Your survival depends on continuous mental updates. Understand that volatility is relative to price, that regimes change, and that clinging to old measures is a recipe for losses. General principles—risk discipline, patience, and adaptability—remain constant, but their practical application shifts with the environment. Recalibrate, or the market will do it for you.