Mihai_Iacob

In my previous BTC analysis, I highlighted that the price was sitting right in a confluence support zone, with strong odds for a bullish reversal. That scenario played out well — bulls regained control. After a retest of the low pruces in the middle of last week and a modest initial bounce, momentum accelerated today, pushing BTC close to its previous all-time high at the time of writing. Looking ahead, I don’t expect the old ATH to be a major obstacle for buyers. A clean break above should open the path toward 130K+ as the next logical upside target. For now, as long as BTC trades above 114K, bulls have no reason for concern.

From Cold Calling to Telegram I’ve been in the markets for so long I feel like a dinosaur, and I’ve probably seen every scam out there. The truth is, none of them are really new — they’re just adapted to the new social paradigm. What was done in the 2000s through cold calling is now done through Telegram, Instagram, X, and other social platforms. I didn’t really want to write this article, in case it gave someone ideas. But since anyone who wants to be a scammer already knows how it works, maybe this article can warn those who still have no idea how the so-called account management scam operates — especially its most common form: the coin flip scam (50/50 scam, Opposite trades scam, Split-direction scam, Two-group margin call trick, as is also known) Step-by-Step: How the Coin Flip Scam Works 1. Gathering the victims The scammer starts by fishing for victims through Telegram channels/groups, Instagram profiles, Facebook groups, or even X posts. They present fabulous profits, post ads with guaranteed return offers, and flood the feed with so-called “proofs” — screenshots of winning trades, client testimonials, and account statements. Most of these are either fabricated or selectively chosen to show only the winning side. Once someone shows interest, the scammer’s first move is to earn their trust. They’ll tell you the broker doesn’t matter, that you can choose it, and that they have no access to your money — which is, technically, true. Then comes the closer: “You don’t have to pay me upfront. I only get paid if I make you money, so it’s in my best interest not to lose. You see? We’re on the same side.” This combination of flashy results and “risk-free” terms makes you feel safe enough to hand them trading access. ________________________________________ 2. Splitting into two groups The accounts are divided into two equal batches: •Group A → All-in BUY •Group B → All-in SELL With high leverage (e.g., 1:200), a 50-pip move means either doubling the account or wiping it out completely. Note: I won’t go too deep into the details here, because the exact margin call level depends on the broker. But trust me, it’s easy for a scammer to plan the money split based on the different brokers’ rules. What we’re talking about here is just the general principle. ________________________________________ 3. Guaranteed winners and losers The market moves. One group hits margin call and loses, while the other doubles or triples its capital (depending on broker's leverage, even more on 1:500). The scammer now has perfect marketing material: “Look how I doubled my client’s account!” ________________________________________ 4. Milking the winners Clients who made a profit are celebrated and told something like: “I only worked with low capital this time just to show you I can do it. I have big clients and serious strategies — now that you’ve seen the proof, deposit more so we can make real money.” The scammer frames the initial gain as a “demo run” to gain the client’s confidence, pushing them to commit much larger sums next. ________________________________________ 5. Recycling the losers The wiped-out clients are told: “It was an unusual market move. Deposit another $1,000 and we’ll recover it tomorrow.” Some quit, but others fall for it again. ________________________________________ 6. Repeat the process The cycle continues. There’s always a “happy” group and real account statements to attract fresh victims, while the losers are quietly discarded or convinced to reinvest. ________________________________________ Why the scam works •The proof are authentic – Screenshots and MT4/MT5 statements for the winners are real. •Survivorship bias – Prospects only see the successes, never the failures. •Hope psychology – Losers believe “next time” will be different (and it can be if they end up in the "winner group" next time ________________________________________ Final word If someone promises to double your account quickly and safely — walk away. Real trading is about risk management and long-term consistency, not betting your capital on a 50/50 gamble. Don’t be the next screenshot in a scammer’s sales pitch. 🚀 P.S. Stop believing they “made you money on purpose” at the beginning and then “lost it on purpose” after you deposited more. If they truly had the skill to do that, they wouldn’t need to be scammers in the first place. The reality is simple — once you put in more money, you just happened to land on the losing side of their scam.

I don’t usually track Gold Futures every single day, but today a fellow trader drew my attention to something — and it’s impossible to ignore. Gold Futures just printed an all-time high at $3,534, while spot gold (XAUUSD) topped at $3,409 — a $120 spread at the peak, now narrowed to about $100 at the time of writing. A spread like this is highly unusual and, more importantly, unsustainable. By the time the August 27th contract expires, futures and spot must converge to the same price. That means one of two things is about to happen — and either way, the move would be explosive. 1. Bullish Scenario – Futures Are Right If the futures market is telling the truth, spot gold will have to accelerate higher to close the $100 gap. If XAUUSD stabilize above $3,400, the odds of a push toward its own ATH become significant — and the move could be fast and aggressive. ________________________________________ 2. Bearish Scenario – Futures Are Overreaching If futures are overshooting, they will have to correct — hard. From a technical standpoint, if spot will drop below $3,370, the door to a continuation is open toward at least $3,330 support. A 400-pip drop in spot could translate into at least a 1,000-pip drop in futures, bringing the spread back toward its more typical 20–30 range. ________________________________________ Why This Matters? Regardless of direction, $100+ spreads do not last. In the next three weeks, one side will be proven wrong, and the prices will snap back together. Looking back at this year’s price action, spot and futures have always mirrored each other with an average spread of 20-30usd, depending on conditions and expectation, and for example: •The spot ATH at $3,500 matches $3,509 in futures. •The May low was identical in both markets. This current divergence is the outlier — and it’s screaming that a major move is coming. ________________________________________ Bottom line: If futures are right, spot gold is about to rip higher. If spot is right, futures are about to collapse.

This week, apart from my short trade on Tuesday, I’ve maintained a bullish outlook on Gold, suggesting buying the dips with the expectation of a breakout above the 3380-85 zone. I was targeting an acceleration above 3400 and eventually 3440. I followed through with this idea and bought in anticipation of the move. However, something about Gold's recent price action raised a red flag for me, prompting me to close my buy positions. Let’s break it down: Starting yesterday morning, the price action became erratic. Initially, we saw the expected breakout, but it was quickly reversed, and the price action turned choppy. Then came a series of quick pumps, followed by quick reversals—each time the market would move up, only to fall back again. As of writing, we’re sitting at 3388. This kind of erratic movement usually suggests that we’re nearing a top, and even if Gold spikes again above 3400, I don’t want to hold positions in a market that’s so volatile and unsustainable in either direction. So, I’m out for now, adopting a neutral to bearish stance. If the price drops below 3370, it would indicate a likely top formation, and at that point, I’ll be looking to sell rallies; till then, wait and see. Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.

Let’s get one thing straight: if you seriously think you’ve discovered a “secret” setup that you saw in a YouTube video with 1 million views, and it’s right there on the chart – clean, centered, elegant – congrats. You’re already on the hook. Welcome. You’re liquidity. 🧼 “Clean breakout” = dig your own grave, enthusiastically It’s honestly beautiful how thousands of traders see the same “clean breakout,” the same “double bottom,” the same “bullish engulfing,” and all believe they’re geniuses. They enter confidently, with a “perfect oversold” RSI, a “confirmed” MACD, and maybe even the moon in Capricorn. Then, of course, the market spits their orders back in their face at 300 km/h. Standard response? “It was manipulation.” No, bro. It was bait. You were the fish. You bit. The market says thank you for your participation and moves on. 🧠 If you see what everyone else sees, it’s useless What most don’t get is this: if a setup looks “too clean,” it will most probably not work. If you see it, everyone sees it. If everyone thinks something is “about to explode,” that means it’s being used – to attract orders. Your money. Your emotions. Exactly what bigger players need to exit, gracefully – on your dime. The market is like an exclusive party: if you found out about it, it’s already lame. 💅 That warm feeling of “certainty”? Yeah, you’re screwed The irony? The moments when a trader feels most certain are exactly the moments when they’re most exposed. The market wants you to feel relaxed. Wants you to think “this is the one.” It’s like a drug dealer giving you your first hit for free, with a smile. Not because he likes you, but because he knows you’re hooked. So when you feel “sure” – check your mouth. You might already be on the hook. 🤡 “But it was an A+ setup!” Of course it was. The A+ setup – seen, tested, recycled, and re-sold thousands of times. The one that works great in textbooks, backtests, webinars, and in the wet dreams of those who think they just need “a perfect strategy”. But the market isn’t here to validate your setup. It’s here to take your money. From whom? From those who still think it’s a “fair game.” Spoiler: it’s not. 🤔 If you’re gonna bite, at least ask: who’s holding the line? Look at any “clear opportunity” and ask the magic question: “Who benefits from what I’m seeing right now?” If the answer is “me ” – you’re in trouble. If you don’t know – you’re in even more trouble. The market is full of traps dressed up as opportunities. Hooks that move slowly, with sexy candles, to lure in the kind of trader who only learned the “buy low, sell high” part – but skipped the chapter on “ don’t bite every shiny thing you see. ” 🎬 Bottom line: The market doesn’t try to fool you. You’re already doing that yourself. The market doesn’t need complex tricks. All it needs is people in a hurry, easy to excite, who never ask the right questions. Who see a green candle and think, “This is it.” Who don’t bother looking for the hook because they’re too busy dreaming about the profits. If you want to trade seriously, it’s simple: Don’t ask “Where do I enter?” Ask: “Where do they want me to enter?” And if you’re already there… run. 🧭 Alright, now seriously ( I mean, I tried to be funny above – but let’s get real for a second ) Let’s look at a few concrete recent examples from the market: 📉 EUR/USD On Monday, I mentioned that price was testing resistance and could offer a nice selling opportunity. But… I changed my mind. (You know... dynamic probabilities ) The pattern was way too clean, too clear, too pretty. And of course, price broke above. Because if it looks too obvious – it’s probably already bait. 🟡 XAU/USD (Gold) Since yesterday, I’ve been talking about the potential for an upside breakout. Why? Because 2380–2385 resistance zone is way too clean. Everyone sees it. Everyone talks about it. Everyone sells there. Which makes me ask: if everyone’s expecting a drop… isn’t that, once again, just bait? Here is my Gold analysis from today: BTC/USD We all see the confluence of support. The perfect alignment. The setup that screams “Buy me.” But what if it’s too perfect to be true? What if it’s just another classic trap – the kind that gets everyone excited before the drop comes. 💡 Now don’t get me wrong – this isn’t about abandoning technical analysis. Far from it. For me, it’s essential. But we’ve got to use it differently. ✅ Not as a treasure map ❌ But as a battlefield map showing us where the traps are laid So maybe… don’t bite like a lizard the second something shiny pops up on your chart. Instead, ask yourself: “Does this make sense… or does it make too much sense? ” Because in trading, when something looks too clean – that’s exactly when it gets dirty. Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.

In yesterday’s analysis, I argued that following Tuesday’s reversal — which printed a strong continuation bullish Pin Bar — buyers had regained control despite the intraday pullback. For this reason, I suggested looking to buy dips, as the structure remained constructive. And once again, during yesterday’s session, the scenario repeated itself. The drop toward the 3360 zone was met with renewed buying interest, keeping the bullish structure intact. ________________________________________ 🔍 Technical Context – Higher Lows Building Pressure At the time of writing, Gold is trading around 3380, a short-term resistance area that has capped gains so far. However, the technical picture remains bullish: Starting with Monday’s low at 3340, which came after a strong impulsive leg up, price has printed a clear succession of higher lows. This behavior strongly suggests increasing buying pressure and builds the case for a potential breakout to the upside. ________________________________________ 🎯 Trading Bias – Holding My Long Position My bias remains bullish. In fact, I’m currently holding a long position, entered yesterday, which is now running with a 150 pips unrealized profit. I’m sticking with the trade, anticipating that a confirmed break above 3380–3390 could trigger upside acceleration toward my final target — a 750 pips profit objective. ________________________________________ 🔄 What to Watch Next •Daily close: A close above 3380=3385 zone would add confirmation to the bullish thesis. •Key support: The zone around 3360 is now support. •Breakout trigger: A move above 3380–3385 could unleash momentum buying and open the path to higher levels. ________________________________________ Let’s stay patient and let the market confirm the breakout. Until then, the structure favors the bulls. 🚀 Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.

1. Quick recap of yesterday In yesterday’s analysis, I highlighted the possibility of a short-term correction on Gold and noted that, although risky, a short trade could be justified. Acting on that conviction, I took a short with a sniper entry, capturing over 250 pips in floating profit. However, Gold found strong support around 3350 and reversed aggressively. I closed the trade with a more modest +140 pips gain. 2. Key development: NY session reversal Despite early signs of weakness, the New York session flipped the script, sending Gold back toward the top of the daily range. The daily close near highs tells us one thing: ➡️ The bulls aren’t done just yet. 3. Technical outlook •Resistance remains firm at 3375–3380+ zone •A clear breakout above this zone opens the door for 3400+, with a likely magnet at 3430 •As long as the market holds above this week’s low, dips are buyable opportunities 4. Trading plan For now, the bias shifts back to the long side. I’m watching for intraday dips to build longs, with invalidation below this week’s low. The structure favors continuation — but only if 3380 gives way we have confirmation. 5. Final thoughts Gold may have teased the bears, but the real power still lies with the bulls. If momentum kicks in above 3380, we could be on our way to test 3430 soon. 🏹 Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.Gold reversed from just above yesterday’s low, forming a new higher low in the process. This price action keeps the bullish structure intact and suggests potential for continuation—but the daily close will be key. A close above 3380 would not only confirm yesterday’s continuation Pin Bar but also print a second one—putting clear pressure on the upside and increasing the likelihood of a breakout. At the time of this update, my position is running with a modest +120 pips unrealized profit. Still, I’m closely watching for a potential upside acceleration that could push the price toward my 750 pips target.

1. What happened yesterday After dipping to 3340 in early trading—just shy of the key 3335 support where I was looking to buy—Gold resumed its bullish momentum that began on Friday. During the New York session, price spiked to a new intraday high near 3385. However, the final hour brought a pullback, and since then, Gold has entered a tight consolidation range. 2. Key question: Is Gold forming a short-term top? The 1H chart shows a new failed breakout attempt above 3380 during the Asian session. This left behind a minor double top, with the neckline sitting around 3370. That level is especially important—it aligns with a short-term rising trendline. 3. Why a correction might follow •Price rejected above 3380 twice •Small double top visible on LTF •3370 is a make-or-break level (neckline + trendline) •A break below could trigger a correction of the +1000 pips rally from Friday’s lows 4. Trade plan While there is some evidence of a potential top, this remains a high-risk and aggressive short. Any attempt to trade against the trend should be done with tight stops and small size . 5. Final thoughts A short-term top could indeed be in place, but Gold must break below 3370 to unlock deeper downside. Until then, the bulls are still in control—just taking a breather. ⚖️ Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.Gold broke under short term trend line and neck line of the small double top. 3350 interim support is in fucus now. After a mega sniper entry my short is running with a comfortable 150 pips profit at the time of this update

In the previous article , we looked at a real trade on Gold where I shifted from a clean mechanical short setup to an anticipatory long — not because of a hunch, but because the market behavior demanded it. That decision wasn’t random. It was based on new information. On structure. On price action. It was based on something deeper than just “rules” — it was about recognizing when the probability of success had changed. That brings us to a powerful but rarely discussed concept in trading: 👉 Dynamic probabilities. ________________________________________ 📉 Static Thinking in a Dynamic Market Most traders operate with static probabilities — whether they realize it or not. They assign a probability to a trade idea (let’s say, “this breakout has a 70% chance”) and treat that number as if it’s written in stone. But markets don’t care about your numbers. The moment new candles print, volatility shifts, or structure morphs — the probability landscape changes. What once looked like a clean setup can begin to deteriorate. Conversely, something that looked uncertain can start aligning into high-probability territory. Yet many traders fail to adapt because they’re emotionally invested in the original plan. They’ve already “decided” what the market should do, so they stop listening to what the market is actually doing. ________________________________________ 🧠 Dynamic Probabilities Require Dynamic Thinking To trade dynamically, you must be able to update your internal odds in real time. This doesn’t mean constantly second-guessing or overanalyzing — it means refining your bias based on evolving context: •A strong breakout followed by weak continuation? → probability drops. •Price holding above broken resistance with clean structure? → probability increases. •Choppy pullback into support with fading volume? → potential reversal builds. It’s like playing poker: you might start with a good hand, but if the flop goes against you, your odds change. If you ignore that and keep betting like you’ve got the nuts, you’re not being bold — you’re being blind. ________________________________________ 📍 Back to the Gold Trade In the Gold trade, the initial short was based on structure: broken support turned resistance. The entry was mechanical, the reaction was clean. All good. But then: •Price came back fast into the same zone. •Sellers failed to defend it decisively. •The second leg down was sluggish, overlapping, and lacked momentum. •Compression began to form. That’s when the probability of continued downside collapsed — and the probability of a reversal increased. The market had changed. So did my bias. That’s dynamic probability in action — not because of a feeling, but because of evolving evidence. ________________________________________ 🧘‍♂️ The Psychological Trap Many traders intellectually accept the idea of being flexible — but emotionally, they cling to certainty. They fear being “inconsistent” more than they fear being wrong. But in a dynamic environment, consistency of thinking is not about repeating the same action — it’s about consistently reacting to what’s real. True consistency is not mechanical repetition. It’s mental adaptability grounded in logic. ________________________________________ 🧠 Takeaway If you want to trade professionally, you must upgrade your mindset from fixed-probability execution to fluid-probability reasoning. That doesn’t mean chaos. It means structured flexibility. Your edge isn’t just in spotting patterns — it’s in knowing when those patterns are breaking down. And acting accordingly, before your PnL does it for you. Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.

Last week was a wild one for Gold. After a quiet start and some choppy price action, the market dropped hard on Wednesday, breaking not only the 3300 key level but also the 3280 horizontal support — and what followed was anything but calm. As expected after a strong move, the price pulled back to retest the broken support. But Friday changed everything. Instead of continuing down, Gold reversed sharply, fueled by weaker-than-expected NFP data. Price surged 800 pips from low to high, breaking above both the 3310 resistance zone and the weekly high around 3335. ________________________________________ 🧭 Key Question: Are we back in the bullish trend, or is this just a strong correction of the 3440 → 3270 drop? Since May, Gold has lacked a clear trend — so a step-by-step trading approach is the most advisable to adopt. ________________________________________ 🔍 Outlook: Given the strength of the reversal and the break above two important resistance levels, my bias is bullish. •📌 Support: 3335 — a pullback into this zone could offer a buy opportunity in line with the recent momentum. •📌 Resistance: 3375 is the next key level to watch. •❌ Invalidation: A drop below 3310 would cancel the current bullish scenario. 🧠 Final Thoughts Gold’s recent move challenges both bulls and bears. Yes, the bounce was strong. Yes, key resistance levels broke. But with no clear trend since May, chasing long term direction can be risky. That’s why a step-by-step approach is the most advisable to adopt — let the market confirm each move before committing to the next. For now, the breakout above 3310 and 3335 leans the bias to the upside. However, staying reactive — not being stuck with an idea — is the smartest approach. Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.