MarcPMarkets

Bitcoin consolidation in progress. The easiest thing to do in these situations is avoid taking any trades until a new trend is established. Even smaller time frames will be harder to trade unless you are employing mean reversion strategies. At some point the market will choose which way it wants to go but trying to guess in advance is a coin flip. The broader trend is bullish but the 110K and 113K area is a tough resistance. If price struggles to break this area over the next few weeks, then a broader retrace may be more likely. In this situation it pays to wait for specific levels to take any action at all. What type of action you take will depend on your risk tolerance and time frame. In my opinion, the higher probability scenarios will be a test of the 102K area supports, followed by reversal patterns. Even if they don't follow through to new highs, at least there will be some attempt to maintain the support since Bitcoin is still generally strong.IF Bitcoin breaks the support (anything is possible) that will confirm the broader corrective scenario which can see price testing 95K at minimum. There is no way to know the certainty of this scenario, it is all about how price action unfolds and confirms. This time of year is typical of lower volume, lower momentum and less follow through. Often it is better to just sit it out and wait until the season shows clear signs of improvement. Seasonal volume does not typically get back to consistently high momentum levels until November. This does not mean there will be no opportunities at all, it just means if there is going to be a time to purposely be more selective, the next couple of months would be that time. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.

Bitcoin has adhered to my previous week's anticipated scenario almost exactly. While this may be a coincidence, I have called similar scenarios like this numerous times just see my previous articles, I left the illustration on the chart. From here, there are two scenarios to consider, one offering greater probability than the other. Let me explain.First consider that the Bitcoin trend has never changed. The broader tend is bullish and the previous weeks only saw a brief corrective structure which found support in the 102K AREA )see my previous article). A reversal developed and confirmed and now we are in the process of rallying back toward the highs. Scenario 1 The Breakout: IF the high 106's are cleared, it is possible price can break out to potentially test the next resistance around the 110K area. Since this environment is typically a lower volume time of year, I believe there is a greater chance of fake out. How you manage the risk all depends on the time frame you operate on. Smaller time frames can pin point more accurate signs of follow through while maintaining tighter risk while taking the breakout on this time frame exposes you to more risk. If taking the breakout on this time frame, consider mitigating risk with smaller size or being prepared to exit IF a conflicting signal appears like a bearish pin bar. Scenario 2 The Retrace: IF price rejects the 106K area (fake out possibility) then I will be watching for a retest of the 104K area minor support. This is the level where I would be looking for confirmation patterns like bullish pin bars etc. This would not only constitute a higher low but also establish a classic inverted head and shoulders pattern. I do not put a lot of emphasis on the broader pattern, but it can help foster a self fulfilling prophecy. This reversal offers a greater probability since it is coming from a pullback within a broader bullish trend. Also the profit objective is greater since the 110K resistance would still be the same. How you mange this again depends on the type of strategies you employ. My analysis is meant to provide an overall roadmap of the possibilities that I anticipate and nothing more. If you are a day trader this information will not be used the same way compared to if you are a swing trader. The key is how you define the risk and the confirmations. If the market rejects both scenarios, then we simply have to readjust to the new information that becomes available. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.

Bitcoin has retraced as anticipated in my previous article (see Wave 5). So much for all the nonsense hype at the Bitcoin conference. Bitcoin has tested the 103K area and found some support but is developing a mini bear flag (see arrow). IF the 103,500K level is broken, that confirms the corrective structure is still in play and a test of 102 to 100K can still be the dominant scenario for the coming week (NFP this week). This means for swing traders on this time frame, it is likely too early for longs.The 102 to 100K area is still the major support that I anticipate. A long signal here can look like a pin bar on this time frame, or a double bottom formation on a 4h or 1h chart. It often pays to wait for these scenarios but there is always a risk of missing the move if price confirms a reversal pattern sooner. IF the current candle closes much higher (above 106K) then it will invalidate the bear flag. This means the bullish continuation would be in play. In my opinion this is a lower probability, but you have to be open to it. In the bullish scenario a test of 110 to 112 servers as a profit objective. While a breakout beyond 112 can happen, the more you expect, the more RISK you must be exposed to. A test of high is more probable than a new high. Along with that, I suspect current price action is more likely to consolidate rather than continue high over the short term because 5 waves are clearly in place. That usually means a corrective structure is likely to follow, and that is what we are currently in.The bullish candles are too early to buy into. If the bear flag plays out, there will be more attractive prices to wait for reversal formations. Otherwise, work smaller time frames, look for small bites going either way and keep the size small. This is not an easy environment.

Bitcoin may be entering a brief corrective formation within the broader bullish trend. The large red candle that rejected the 113K resistance (see my previous article), could be the beginning of a retrace that can take price as low as the 102,500 to 100K area IF bearish momentum persists. The mistake to avoid is buying this pullback too early, especially since there is no bullish confirmation on this time frame.The red candle off the 113K area is what I like to refer to as the "mother bar". As you will notice, the following candle is a bearish pin bar which failed to break back above the 50% point of the mother bar (see blue arrow). This is a "mini" lower high and is typically a bearish sign for those operating on smaller time frames. A break below 106,500 would confirm a sell signal on this time frame as well as smaller time frames like 4H and 1H. This can be attractive for aggressive shorts, BUT it is very important to keep the broader trend in perspective. This bearish development does NOT constitute a change in the broader trend. This means support levels are still more likely to hold, and resistances more likely to break. The higher probability scenarios in my opinion are bullish reversal patterns between the 102,500 - 100K area. Double bottoms, failed lows etc. on 1H, 4H or this time frame would be ideal for swing trade longs (see illustration). IF the bullish trend is going to stay intact, then a higher high is within reason which can see price test 113K or higher (120K is my next resistance). Another VERY important consideration is the overall location of price. Currently in a Wave 5 (v) configuration which signifies limited potential in the near future. In other words, RISK is elevated and only continues to increase as price climbs higher. As "optimistic" as everyone may seem to be, this is a time to be more defensive, NOT aggressive. This can be accomplished by reducing expectations, operating on smaller time frames, and taking smaller positions. My Trade Scanner Pro helps to quantify risk which is especially helpful in rising risk environments such as this one.In contrast, the location to be aggressively bullish was the 76K area low. Sure I can say this after the fact, BUT if you read my analysis and watch my streams from that time, I was pointing out the potential and the bullish signs as they were developing in real time. Market situations like the one Bitcoin is in right now can be very confusing at times. Navigating this environment successfully depends on how you interpret price structures, trends and levels across multiple time frames and letting the MARKET validate ideas or not the other way around. Always consider arguments on both sides of the market and weigh those arguments against the style or strategy that you intend to deploy. And if confusion ensues, then the easiest thing to do is walk away. When potential is limited, there is nothing to fear in terms of missing out. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.

Bitcoin is attempting to break out of a minor consolidation which is a typical momentum continuation pattern. The updated wave count illustrates the potential (113K area) IF this breakout follows through over the coming week. While the structure is clearly bullish, I suspect this is a 5th of a 5th wave relative to the wave structure dating back to the 2017 peak (weekly chart). For traders this offers plenty of opportunities particularly on the long side, BUT for investors this means the higher it goes, the GREATER the risk. In other words, a break out to new highs should be considered an opportunity to take profits or reduce risk. Wave 5's typically appear to be the "best" time to get involved in a market, but offer the LEAST potential and the greatest risk. I was not able to write my analysis over the previous week because I was hosting the ICTC 2025 (link in signature). My analysis the week before that was still bullish but I was anticipating a broader retrace which never materialized. Again the key in this game is ADJUSTING, not getting stuck on opinions. IF the 106K is compromised, and the daily candle closes strong, the breakout is more likely to follow through. This can lead price back to the 109K all time high. Since Wave 5's typically go higher than the Wave 3 peak, the next price objective is the 113K area which is proportional to Wave 1 on this impulse (similar length) when projected from the consolidation breakout (see illustration). It is possible that Wave 5 can extend further, because the broader price structure is bullish. The mistake to avoid is thinking "it's just getting started". The further it goes, the greater the risk. Longer term investors are MOST vulnerable in situations like this because they are more likely to follow the "hype" that surrounds such moves while be completely ignorant to the shrinking shorter term potential. Wave 5's often characterize the idea that the majority of participants who were going to buy have bought, which means there will be much less potential demand in the near future.This concept is NOT to be confused with long term fundamentals which often don't change. What changes is the sentiment and sentiment is what motivates price. The recent corrective move to the 76K low also illustrates this phenomenon. Fundamentally there was no reason for price to be pushing such lows. Such a move was provoked by the "perceived" risks brought on by the tariff drama which we know now was nothing more than a knee jerk reaction and an enormous buying opportunity for those who have the ability to see through the hype (read my analysis of that time). In my opinion the best way to navigate this market is on smaller time frames. Anywhere from 1 minute to 4H offers more precise price references to mitigate risk from. Another consideration is if you plan to trade the broader time frame, use smaller than usual sizing if you plan to dollar cost average into higher prices. The trend is clearly BULLISH which means support levels are more likely to hold while resistances are likely to break. Expect more from longs and LESS from shorts. Short setups, while tempting are going to be lower probability. This should only be done by more experienced traders who understand how to manage the elevated risk. This is the mindset I will maintain UNTIL the market proves otherwise.Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.113K objective still in play but risk is elevated. If you missed it, look for bullish continuation patterns within smaller time frames. Proportional risk is lower, but if price reverses, chances of getting caught in a broader corrective move should be lower. IF 113K is cleared, 120K is my next anticipated price objective. It's all about "IF", if the market proves otherwise, then analysis needs to be adjusted as well.

Bitcoin has lingered around the 95K resistance area over the previous week. In my opinion this is a sub wave iii completion (5 mini waves can be counted within the bullish breakout leg). This implies there is a greater probability of a retrace or sub wave iv (see wave count on chart). The retrace can go as low as the 90K support without overlapping sub wave i which would keep the bullish impulse in play. Also there is enough evidence here to suggest this structure is likely the first wave of the broader Wave 5 which can see a test of the 109K high over the coming months.The current high (see arrow) shows signs of potential reversal at a location where such a pattern can be expected. The question is, when will it retrace and how far? It is anyone's guess. This is where you have to have the ability to adjust as the market provides new information. Until then the best we can do is assess loose probabilities and wait to see how the market aligns or not.The adjustment process is two fold: evaluating support/resistance levels and assessing the RISK associated with a given scenario. For example, the illustration on the chart shows a retrace back to 90K, this or some variation of this scenario may or may not unfold. The key is to have levels identified in advance and then WAITING to see how the market behaves at such levels. Does it confirm our idea or not? In the case of Bitcoin now, the 95K area resistance is sticking and a reversal pattern has appeared which adheres to the retrace scenario, but how far it retraces is up to Bitcoin. We have to wait and see what type of bullish reversals appear and where they appear before RISK can be assessed for a swing trade on this time frame.Markets that linger around levels can be very hard to trade if you are the type that forces trades or assert opinions. Slow grinds are especially tough to sit through which is why I always suggest evaluating smaller time frames while keeping this bigger picture in mind. There are plenty of smaller opportunities to capitalize on if you can recognize the support/resistance levels and trend structure on the smaller time frames without losing site of the bigger picture.On this time frame for swing trades, I am not interested in the short side. I prefer to wait for the retrace (wave iv) measure to see how far it goes, WAIT for the reversal confirmation, then quantify the RISK from that point. IF this scenario appears, I would be anticipating a retest of the 100K resistance and expecting a greater chance of a breakout to a higher high (low to mid 100ks)? This can take at least two weeks to play out in my opinion. And if this scenario does not play out, then adjust to the whatever new information the market is presenting.Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.

In my previous article I describe the potential breakout if 88K was compromised. I pointed out, the compound double bottom in the 74 to 78K area implied a greater probability of price breaking out, it was just a matter of catalyst. IF anything this possibility should have told you that swing trade shorts are a lower probability and much riskier within that resistance zone. For those of you looking for precise calls, eventually you will learn there is no such thing, because markets adjust to new information as it becomes available but we can assign loose probabilities to scenarios. So what technical possibilities are we looking at for the upcoming week and how will this shape our expectations?On my chart, the updated anticipated scenario (See illustration) points to a retrace back to the 90K area which is NOW a support. Since the broader trend is bullish it is within reason to expect this support to HOLD and NOT break. That means it is an ideal location for high probability swing trade longs UPON confirmation. Watch 93,250 break (see blue arrow) to confirm price is following the retrace scenario (break of previous candle low). IF this is not broken, then the retrace scenario is NOT in play.Another fact I want to point out is a new minor impulse structure is now in effect (it is not numbered on the chart). The move from the 74K low to the current high contains 3 waves which means the next retrace is likely Wave 4 which would then open the possibility for the Wave 5 breakout beyond the 95K area. Wave 4 to 5 is the highest probability wave to anticipate because it requires 3 waves to be in place and has to adhere to the Wave 1 overlap rule. While this does not offer a specific setup to trade, it does help to shape a clear expectation. All you need from there is a system or method to confirm the bullish reversal (like the Trade Scanner Pro). Other than that, If Bitcoin manages to maintain the support above 90K, this new rally may be the broader Wave 5 that I have talked about previously which implies a test of 109K over the next quarter. Again this is a game of gauging potential and then quantifying the risk that is associated with it. That is only the beginning of the trade idea because from there you must have a decision making process in place to manage the trade in a constantly CHANGING environment. IF you fail to have such a process then you face random results. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.

Bitcoin is consolidating within a very tight range: between 83 and 86K. Which way it breaks is a matter of catalyst, but recognizing the break can help to better shape expectations on this time horizon. IF 83K breaks, I will be watching for the higher low scenario (see blue square), for confirmations to go long. IF 86K breaks, I will be anticipating a test of the 88 K resistance (see arrow). What happens after that is anyone's guess. This is NOT about forecasting the future, it is about considering multiple scenarios and then adjusting as the market offers new information.This evaluation can be helpful on multiple time frames if you know how to use it. For example, a break of the 83K support can be a great day trade opportunity on time frames like the 5 minute. A test of the 78K to 80K area followed by a confirmation can offer a long opportunity on the swing trade or day trade time frames. A test of the 88K or 90K resistance levels can offer aggressive short opportunities on smaller time frames as well. You have to be prepared for the possibility of the corresponding pattern to appear (bullish/bearish reversal) and confirmation. From there risk can be effectively quantified and taking action becomes reasonable. Getting stuck on 1 scenario rather then being prepared for multiple possibilities makes you inflexible because there is NO precision in financial markets (unless you're on the micro structure level MOST retail traders are NOT). The scenarios I explained here can unfold over the week or take longer, AGAIN is it a matter of catalyst or surprise news event. As far as the bigger picture, nothing has changed. The 76K AREA low is a double bottom, which translates into a broader higher low when you look back over the year. This higher low structure implies Bitcoin is still generally BULLISH which means betting on resistance levels can be considered a lower probability outcome. This also means current prices are still attractive investment levels as long as you are sizing strategically. IF price manages to break below 65K over the next quarter, then I would say investing should be more limited since such a break implies the impulse structure is no longer in play. Other than that, seasonal volume typically peaks around this time of year in the stock market, which means the next few months are more likely to be less eventful and contain smaller price ranges etc. There are always exceptions and news catalysts will still cause price spikes, but the dramatic nature like we have seen will likely be smaller. So unless there are any surprises in Bitcoin, be prepared for slow grinds or less eventful movements generally speaking.Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.

Bitcoin has rallied out of my anticipated 76K AREA reversal zone (see my previous week's analysis). I anticipated this move BEFORE all of the news and drama that transpired over the week because I focus on relevant information that came from this chart. As of now, price is fluctuating in the middle of a consolidation. While price is still attractive in terms of the bigger picture for investment, the fact that it is in the middle of a short term consolidation must be strongly considered for day and swing trade strategies. Here's my perspective.A double bottom (failed low) has been established around the 74 to 76K area. It does NOT matter why, all that matters is the structure is now in place. This is very important for two specific reasons: 1) it is a broader higher low (Wave 4 bottom?) which implies a higher high or at least test of high is more likely to follow. This means test of 109K over the coming months is within reason. 2) Resistance levels have a greater chance of breaking while supports have a greater chance of being maintained. Current prices up into the 90K resistance are attractive for dollar cost averaging while broader risk can be measured by the 76K area low. As for swing trades, price is fluctuating at a mid point of a consolidation. The range low is around 76K, the high around 88K (see arrow). When it comes to smaller time frame strategies, consolidation mid points are HIGHLY random areas. This is where you either WAIT it out for a support or resistance to be reached before taking a signal OR go with continuation patterns (Trade Scanner Pro great for this). The higher probability scenario would be a minor retrace into the high 70Ks or low 80Ks for a swing trade long. Otherwise WAIT for the 88K to 90K resistance area for short signals which would be EXTREMELY aggressive given the fact Bitcoin is generally bullish.And day trades strategies have a similar outlook. Being in the middle of the range means smaller time frame supports and resistances within the area 83K to 88K are going to be less reliable or more random until price momentum asserts itself on the bigger picture. Beginners should simply avoid this environment, but if you must participate, the best way to adjust is work on smaller time frames like 5 minute or less and accept the whatever the R:R ratio is for that time frame. Either way do NOT expect BIG moves until price makes its way to one of the outer boundaries of the range. The Trade Scanner Pro quantifies the R:R for your chosen time frame and gives you a much better idea of what to expect. The illustration on the chart points to a short term rejection of the 88K to 90K area resistance. This can be attractive for those who are willing to accept greater risk and operate on smaller time frames. IF Bitcoin breaks 90K, it can easily squeeze into the 95K area and all it takes is an unexpected news announcement which seems to happen regularly in this environment. NO ONE knows where the market is going, we can only assign probabilities which is why RISK must be assessed and RESPECTED before ANYTHING else. This game is hard not because traders lack intelligence, it is because MOST participants believe they are consuming information that is relevant, especially if this behavior has been reinforced by random wins. As retail traders we have to operate with a blind fold while a small minority of participants operate with HIGH quality information. Here's a hint: you will not find truly relevant information on public platforms like Twitter, mainstream news, etc., yet people still turn to these sources when they feel the need to be "informed". Everything you NEED is on your chart.Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.

Bitcoin has broken the 81,500 minor support and is now in the process of testing the recent swing low 78K to 76K AREA. With the lower high structure at the 88K area (see arrow) in place, a lower low is likely to follow in the coming week. The question is how much lower? One reasonable estimate is a test of 73K (the previous all time high before November). The current area between 79 and 76K does present a buying opportunity on multiple time horizons (investment, swing trades, day trades) but the key to timing this WAITING for confirmation.From the investing perspective, this is an attractive low because this may establish a reversal formation (double bottom) which may be the bottom of Wave 4. IF this turns out to be true, Wave 5 can potentially begin here. Price can probe as far as 64K before overlapping with Wave 1 of this impulse. Stepping into this our placing a limit order at a lower price is reasonable, but managing risk on this time horizon has a lot to do with your sizing strategy (I have explained this on many streams). Keep in mind price can BREAK and test 73K or lower and you must consider that possibility into your sizing strategy. As far as swing trades, its the same idea except this is where a defined risk (stop) and profit objective has to be assigned (Trade Scanner Pro shines here). While the level is ideal for a double bottom or failed low (see illustration), there is NO confirmation. So it is still highly risky to step into this, especially in light of the stock market situation, etc. Wait for a bullish pin bar, engulfing candle, etc. You can define risk from there and utilize at least a 2:1 or greater profit objective. For day trades, its the same process just on smaller time frames, (1 min to 15 min). Just on the day trade time frame, at this time, SHORTS can still be attractive on minor retracements because momentum on these time frames is CLEARLY bearish. If 79K breaks, there is a greater chance momentum continues toward the 76K AREA low.I realize there must be some news catalyst in play to spark such a move. DO NOT react to the news, this is often a mistake. It doesn't matter what it is because this is a game of recognizing herd mentality behavior and identifying potential opportunities in this context. You want to anticipate an inflection point, WAIT for price behavior to confirm. At that point you can identify risk, and profit expectations. THIS is a MORE objective process compared to "thinking" you know how the news will affect a market. Keep decision making as simple as the "IF this, then that" framework which gives you a more accurate view of market intent since it encourages a more passive view rather than asserting your own irrelevant opinions. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.