LiquidMafia

In this chart, we continue the journey of testing whether Bitcoin can live up to the expectations as published in my previous Bitcoin prediction chart (2024). Since we had technically hit my ATH cycle top for 2024–25, we are now gambling with the possibility that we might not have hit the highest cycle top targets and may just extend that little bit more. I think 2025 has most people asking, "Are we done yet?" or are we on the verge of something else? We'll just have to wait and see....Upside:As you can see in ATHs, there are several targets, and I've mentioned this in my previous chart. Ultimately, the high side of what this chart can expect from a cycle high is a 2-week close of $131k. Wicks can extend beyond this price, but I expect a close below (according to this chart). A close above will invalidate this chart. All prices within the lows and highs are acceptable.Downside:In my previous chart, I hadn't posted any projected targets during a bear market; I only highlighted the lows, as generally that is what most may consider important enough to know—when can we resume the bull market again? Well, in this chart, I have labeled two additional downside targets. Although these do not follow the same pattern as other targets, they do have a significant similarity to previous cycle lows. Expect bounces from these levels, but if the pattern holds true, they will fail and continue to lower prices. In the short term, resistance sits at $98,511, and again this is on a 2-week close. So this next week, we can wick above, which might be the path we are on. Summary: I'll be posting updates close to each 2 week close, if I see something I'll be sure to post and update.2024 Chart linked below.

In this chart we see the 4th Fib-Time based concept for Bitcoin. We take a simple approach in this chart, in comparison to my other concepts which are linked below. I published this chart because the results suggested that we are currently in the DCA out phase and that it ends in 30 weeks, somewhere around Oct 2025. The placement of these fib times are in pre ATH peaks, that start from 2012 pre launch into 2013 ATH and they continue again into 2016 pre launch of 2017's ATH and so on.Without going to in-depth the signposts label DCA in and out phases. For 3 cycles they have been decently placed. However, we cannot discount that we do not need to repeat this pattern, we could be on the road to something very different. Although, the low in 2022 did fall within this period yet again.Importantly, this is not a price prediction or estimation, nor does it offer an overall bearish or bullish take. Although the outlook seems bullish (short-term), cycles can play out over the years, and we may not have seen Bitcoin's final cycle just yet. This is why this is an alternative concept to others I have been exploring. This merely presents a conceptual analysis of Bitcoin's time and cycles to date, highlighting key pivotal points worth watching for. Timing can be just as crucial as managing risk. Having a plan to correlate these factors allows you to spend less time watching charts and more time enjoying whatever you want.Key Takeaways:- It appears that in times to DCA out, the price exhausts towards the end of the signposts. Where as for times of DCA in, the price typically has made its low right from the start of the signpost.- Both zones are about a year in time, but the bear market extends much longer during the peak bullish periods. - We are currently reaching the 0.272 in a the next few weeks, which is the fib-time between where we are now. This could cause some volatility.This is purely a concept and not financial advice. I apologise for the resolution. A screenshot can be viewed here:

In this chart, we explore a third Bitcoin Fib-Time Cycles concept (3/5). Refer to the original idea for concept #1 or concept #2 (linked below). In this concept, we position Bitcoin within an unconventional greater two-cycle phase, where the current cycle, Cycle 2, contributes to a Supercycle. It offers a twist that may appeal to the more contrarian, as its approach is taken from the emotional 'Herd' perspective. We use this to examine investor sentiment as it often conflicts with price action and can provide moments of opportunities or reasons to prepare and avert risk. Unlike other concepts, each signpost should be viewed as a rolling emotional peak within that period, until the next is triggered. This chart is not to be confused with other concepts, however, it can be confluent whilst still being conceptually distinct.In this third concept, the positioning of the trend-based Fib-Time Extensions has been drawn from Bitcoin's inception to the first impulse rally in 2020. From there it is then projected sequentially again up until 2030. The rationale behind this theory is based on the idea that originated from my first-ever TV-published chart (linked below)https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/cZEvxk8j-COVID-Killed-the-BTC-Cycles/. The shift in Bitcoin's cyclical nature poses a possibility that most of Bitcoin's growth from the early stages (2009 to 2013) is now in a repetitive sequence. This could indicate signs at greater levels playing into larger growth, which then forecasts a longer-term bear market.Note: These vertical projections are not manually placed; they are based on Fibonacci sequence numbers derived from the denoted placements (0-1). Interestingly, where they end up closely correlates to the major pivots across Bitcoin's historical patterns.Importantly, this is not a price prediction or estimation, nor does it offer an overall bearish or bullish take. Although the outlook seems bullish (short-term), cycles can play out over the years, and we may not have seen Bitcoin's final cycle just yet. This is why this is an alternative concept to others I have been exploring. More alternatives in the coming weeks and months.This chart merely presents a conceptual analysis of Bitcoin's time and cycles to date, highlighting key pivotal points and how Bitcoin can often play on emotion and sentiment-driven participants. Overall it is worth observing even without this concept as understanding timing and environmental circumstances can be just as crucial as managing risk or setting price targets. Having a plan to correlate these factors allows you to spend less time watching charts and more time enjoying whatever you want.Key Takeaways:This chart is based on the 2-week timeframe as its projections are till mid-2030With a 1-2 weeks variance, each fib-time level (signpost) approximately triggers the next shift in the emotional phase. It is within a phase to anticipate the preceding signpost and observe the sentiment with the correct mindset.Each fib range marks approximately 3808 days (10.43yrs)Note that 0.5 is not an actual fib level.Once a cycle of phases is completed, we will assess as I believe this concept could prove to be a new set of cycles.We are 2 weeks, and 3 days until we crossover the next signpost (The Fomo Sweats!) Crossing the next signpost does suggest that there is a 1-3 month period of rapid upside.This current second iteration cycle is projected to end in Jun 2030.This is purely a concept and not certain and not financial advice. I apologise for the resolution. A screenshot can be viewed here: https://www.tradingview.com/x/FKDD4YEC/

In this chart, I showcase my major Bullrun Rings since 2016. As stated on the chart, there have only been 2 failures that still resulted in a major upturn into new ATHs. The only failed trigger since inception was marked in Nov 2013 (not depicted). This saw a close above the green ring and then closed below two weeks later. Prior to this date, 4 additional targets were also proven to signal upward continuation. With regards to my additional ring placements, they help guide and navigate price action direction and assist in providing forecasted support, resistance levels and pivot points. The results are evident and harmonic, to say the least.Forward-looking projections and Key Takeaways:As I see it here, there is a little upward free-ranging until we hit either the above or below rings. Just keep in mind, typically once crossed, that price is not seen for a long time, or if not at all.One major clue in identifying major moves is when these cycle Rings converge or cross one another. On and around the week of the 20th of May 2024 we will be seeing a major crossing of Rings multiple rings. Some of which are not here due to the inability to visually comprehend.I have labelled some price targets, but be aware rings are not straight and price can, at any point hit a ring. As it stands now the peak of the upper red ring is coincidentally the 2022 ATH at 69KFinal ThoughtsBecome subjected to what may appear to be a solar system of overlapping crazy rings, but be sure to look closely and see for yourself the confluence and relationships these rings play into price action and timings.ThanksHere is a link to the original postx.com/LiquidMafia/status/1742916632496963688?s=20I will be sure to post updates zoomed in as we approach a ring.Here is a clearer picture at better resolutionBit of an update, following the Bullrun rings. Seems we haven't yet hit total resistance and could stretch a little more before a potential consolidation > to retrace down. However totally open to blasting right through. Here is a screenshot of a zoomed in PA and targets, to watch for. Although I don't expect a low to come in straight away.Ok time for an update: We have now broken above the red ring. There is now a cause for alert, as this scenario of breaking the red ring has historically playing into a correction 2-3 weeks after crossing. Whilst for the majority of times, we have typically resisted crossing and retraced prior to breaking upward. Now I could say that "this time is different" however given BTC's price action (PA), BTC has been respecting this chart quite nicely, so far. Furthermore, I've moved and placed an additional vertical line that signals the next pivot ring cross, these are aligned with todays PA and whilst price can fluctuate, these dates will move as they correlate to the (blue) rings. At it stands the next approaching ring cross is the week of the 27th of March. This is one to watch out for. For now remaining above the red ring is ok, closing below (weekly) could indicate a large correction is at play. I'll post more updates as we get closer.Hi, little quick update. PA has since my last update has now tagged the bottom side of my red ring. This may hold as support and I do suspect a mini bounce.PA can most likely be a magnet to this ring for a few days or head up to the top side of the blue pivot ring. This ring cross has also now just moved back...since dropping, which again indicates, PA could move up that means resistance and the dates for ring crossing moves closer... and I'd suspect if that happens the date will move towards the 24th-27th of March.Just to bring it back to basics. I also have to mention.... resistance at the blue ring could be big, but crossing and closing over the ring signals a continued move upwards. The last time we crossed this ring was in Jan 2023 right when this whole bull run started. A cross above the green ring... signals....well let's just say... it will be fun times again for many months!!!Another little update on my rings chart. BTC PA has now broken below the red ring. I believe staying close to this ring is ideal. Moving along and down side is also ideal. As long as we approach the next pivot ring from the downside up I do expect a bounce.... however, it might be conflicting and volatile. As long as a solid close crossing it is printed I will remain bullish.Update to Blue Ring Cross. I've made an error and it seems the ring has moved or I've accidentally moved it. So I have now positioned it back into its original state. This error has now changed the ring cross dates. Previously I mentioned the ring cross date could be the 24-27th of March and then also the 1st of April. Whilst this ring is measured on the weekly TF it is also valid to note that close enough to either side of the ring anything can happen, and should be triggered on the weekly TF. It is also a tricky ring cross to propagate. 5/10 ring crosses resulted in an upward continuation, whilst some crosses' price below was never seen again. Whilst 5/10 either saw months of sideways or a quick sell-off (lower than crossing price) before reversing upward. Then of those 5, 2 were ending of bull market and signified a reversal.I'll post here a screenshot showing that the blue ring placement has been put back as the original publishing of this chart. This now shows that the week of the 6th of May is when we are likely to cross. Keep in mind that PA will affect these dates.Again I apologise for the misrepresentation.Here it is on the dailyNote: Dates may look different and this is due to the ring being positioned on weekly TF.So, a much needed BIG update to my Bullrun Rings Chart. Whilst this sell off did send Bitcoin down, we have managed to nail support (right to the tee) below on my red ring at $61,308. As mentioned in a previous update, this red ring can act like a magnet and to stay above and/or hover around this ring on multiple days we still can maintain an uptrend. Multiple closes below would suggest more downside although, typically a full-body candle will wick through these rings. If we do see closes below, I'd be cautious of any upside as it could be limited especially if on the weekly timeframe. A close even fractionally below this red ring on the weekly could set us up for some major pain.To extrapolate this, the last time we crossed below this red ring on the weekly was in March 2020, right before the a major dump. All other rings are also very closely is the same similar proximity which is concerning but not entirely worried just yet. Not to say this will happen again but history does have a tendency to rhythm but maybe not repeat.Just to reemphasis what the chart is indicating. All green rings that Bitcoin's PA has crossed does project continuation, there will be dips and there will be fake outs but the overall trajectory is upward continuation, until major pivot (blue) rings are crossed or met with heavy resistance. We still have one more major green ring cross. Is it the last or will we cross it much, much later. Who knows, time will tell...PS: I've also moved these pivot rings across as PA has moved down. I will only post updates and move these rings as PA approaches. There is no point in me moving each time I update as they are still a fair way out.Here is current PA snapshotand then a comparison to March 2020. Do we need to come down before crossing the next pivot ring?I think it's time to do an update since we had a decent drop below the red ring. Although, for the moment we are keeping intact as we have moved back above, it has suggested some probable strength. As indicated previously a weekly close would prove even more strength. To this date, we have yet to close a weekly below this ring so it remains bullish until proven otherwise. Placing the magnet on the red ring has proven legitimate, as price action has yet again gravitated towards it.In addition, we are now approximately 2 weeks away from a major cycle pivot. I'll post updates as we get closer, however, for the moment the Bullrun rings are fast approaching and the higher up the quicker they'll come. Another set of 2 crossing rings is also (blue) approaching. I've posted a screenshot where the last 3 times this occurred as this has kick-started some major cycles.For now, we wait for the weekly close to see if we remain above the red ring. Recalling back to March 2020, this is where the close below played into a continued drop. So we need to watch this. I remain cautiously bullish.Here is a daily screenshot as wellBIG Update: I should have paid a lot more attention to this chart so I apologise. This current weekly has actually surpassed the pivot ring cross as it was last week's candle before crossing. I've completely missed this as I've been viewing the daily real-time TV chart. I had failed to view the original chart and view it from the weekly timeframe. So in error, the rings are skewed.In light of this, my predictions have always been once we hit and cross this ring on the weekly, I expect a big pump and on this week, we got a big pump. This week has yet to close but probabilities do appear that we may have ended this local bottoming range, and we begin to hit the top side of the green ring.To view this on the daily, we have yet to cross the ring. I have to respect the positioning of the ring placements and there were constructed on the weekly so I must stay true to that timeframe.Well Well... so it appears weekly close has now proven to give us that big pump we were after. The weekly cross of the pivot ring has come to fruition. Now we wait as there is another ring cross early June.I stay true to these rings and will post an update once we solidify a range high.I removed some rings to simply the cross on weekly.I thought it might be wise to post an update on this chart, considering that coming in the next 2 weeks we will be crossing another major ring cross. This Green ring cross is the whole reason for creating this entire chart and as it stands STILL to this day we have only witnessed 2 failures which still resulted in a major rally to only fail many months later. I emphasize that the failures are price has never closed (weekly) below the price levels after crossing the Green ring. A wick below is fine but generally, we don't even see that. I estimate that where the ring might cross might pose the lowest side of a drop to no greater than $53k (close). I will be monitoring this chart very closely and the 3 possible scenarios are: - Slow boring grind across the ring to later see a pump - A God candle on the opening side week of the cross, leaving price behind. - A smallish God candle into the ring cross followed by a major downturn that could potentially wick lower but remain above on closure. Could span for a few weeks.Here is a screenshot indicating the Green ring and where PA stands now with dates estimated for the week surrounding June 10th. Please revisit the open comments for more details.PS: The Green Legend has been updatedSmall update to above, I forgot to mention that any fast pace move up would speed up the Green ring cross over so do not take my projected dates as gospel. They are merely based off current average PA. In addition, historically we haven't seen too much resistance around this ring so if we do not cross and reject, it may not be time we cross...and we might need to wait longer.Another update to make which might give a little more context to how we get to the ring cross... I should have posted a screenshot daily to get a little more understanding. Although, I base most of these ring crosses on weekly closures. From what I am seeing here, we could proceed with the slow and boring approach from my possible scenarios. So if we look back in Dec-Jan 2023 we can see how this played out. Little to no PA and the slow sideways, grind-up which eventually led to a curved propelled move upward. It's actually quite rare to see candles that cross major pivotable rings smallish in size. For the most part, typically you see a large-bodied candle that makes the leap through. Anyway, we never saw it in 2023 so it may occur again soon. See the screenshot for a comparison. From where PA is currently 6th of June (next week) is where we are targeted to cross (blue ring), however, PA will move this time based on up or downside moves. As for the green ring, that is currently on the 17th of June, as same rules apply. Remember it's the green ring I am looking at, as the blue ring may send us down, pushing us back in time before we cross. If it all goes accordingly, then we should be crossing both rings relatively close by, which would indicate price moves upward...Interesting week ahead...:)Major update, since this weekly candle has opened, we are now currently sitting right on the ring cross over. So it is this week we shall see a move and it appears we have already started to see it. I will be mindful to claim I'd much rather be above the green ring then where we are now, however, PA has proven to be moving upwards so we shall wait and see how this week pans out. In my screenshot you can see we are on the ring, but on the daily we are few days away. I projected this ring crosses on the weekly so will stay true to that for confirmation, although PA can be quicker or lag on daily.PS: Funny enough my March 17th update where I place this current blue pivot ring had a crossing date of 4th of June... and look at what day it is.It's been a while since I've posted an update, and considering Bitcoin has dropped over the last few days, I think It might be wise to provide some context.So in terms of rings and crosses. We're pretty much done with pivot crosses (blue), the next isn't till Dec 2025 which is miles away and the last one did signal this decline. However, the green ring, which is the bull market ring, has been rejected for a few days now (see screenshot) and would seem that it might take us out till early July. I've put in a range from the current PA to where we could potentially drop it. If we drop beyond, that ring cross event will be even further away, months even. The critical time would be the 24th of Oct 2024.We don't typically spend too much time around this green ring, so it could very well be that we are just not at that time of the cycle and need to come much further down before we cross. I still maintain my bias but it is wearing thin.Alright time for another update. It has been a while and my last post was somewhat negative and that decline may start to occur. I've stated many times before, that we need to cross the green ring, anything else is either prolonging the inevitable, which is, it's not time yet. I placed next week's candle lower as that red ring should definitely give us some major bounce, and if not, reversal. At this price point of approx. 49K the expected crossing of the green ring is at the end of August. Any low and we go further out. Fundamentally I am basing my TA on this chart purely around the rings and macro structures of support and resistance, but also timing. However, given there are no more pivot rings this is making it harder to determine (on this chart anyway) Mind you the last pivot ring cross did signal this drop back on the 6th of June. It was a signal nonetheless and could have gone either way. We stay patient and wait for PA to settle and pick up interest again as for where we are here on this chart is a little bit in no mans land.MAJOR UPDATE:Green Ring has now been broken on the daily (not closed) !!! This rally-up has triggered off a crossover and although I was not anticipating this move for at least a few more days, PA can move UP whenever it does and now the daily candle has broken through. The weekly also opened above and now has crossed above, I will hold for further confirmation of this until this week's candle closes and today's daily, but to understand the context of this means that it is very unlikely to see a price below $53k for a long time. As stated in my opening details of this chart 4/6 times PA never retraced below the break-out point of the green ring, once crossed, and even in those 2 times price rallied a lot more before returning, and it took months to do so. For this chart, I now claim a very high probability for the price to continue upward. Solidifying this on a weekly close would only reinforce my bias! Let's see how the daily holds first Rings forever!Weekly DailyI recall my weekly open above the green ring, this did not occur. $61,200 is ring price point $400 away from opening above.Well Well... the daily has now closed 2 candles well above the green ring. This for me has semi-confirmed that we are on track to my first target of 88K, based on this chart. With a few more days until weekly closes, I retain my bias and direction of UP only with little to no retracements until the price has found its next consolidation. We watch and wait....PS I added another ring (from another chart) to showcase a potential resistance point.**Major Bitcoin Bullrun Ring UPDATE:**Bitcoins price action today has put this chart in a serious predicament of concern. We have now broken back under my green ring and that could indicate that probabilities have lessened with the idea of upward continuation. For months I have led the idea that crossing the green ring signals that a strong push upwards would take place and that a price below that crossing point would not immediately occur unless it wasn't for a long time. Today, within 2 weeks this occurred and somewhat invalidates the future of this chart. However, and BIG one, the 2/6 cases whereby this did occur, (2016+2020) prices did dip below short-term, but then proceeded with massive gains to later revisit that price back under the initial ring crossing at a later stage. This often marked the top of a cycle and a drop back under. So with that, the only 2 cases of bullish scenarios I see now are:1. Close this weekly candle back above the green ring approx. $55, 600k like we did in 2020 and gain strength to continue onwards and upwards to another new ATH.2. Close under the green ring and bounce back up later and witness a similar scenario to 2016 where we had a significant selloff but it launched us upwards to a final peak of 2017s ATHs.So with that, the scenarios have reduced however, it does give us insight to know that after this potential last leg upwards, there is good chance that we will be coming back down, to much lower prices. I think EW macro counts also shows confluence to this (2.) scenario. The irony is also that I see a lot of ppl refer to this cycle much like the 2013 cycle more so than the 2017 cycle. So it will be interesting to see if this repeating pattern plays out. If this scenario does not play out then yes I will wave my flag and admit defeat. This will be one to look back on regardless whatever the outcomes is.Apologies for the delays in giving updates on this chart. A lot has happened although the move from the Green Ring Cross took place only a few days after my last update. Since then we have just gone upwards and onwards. This update is short because there are really no rings in sight from where price action is. Following my previous update I gave 2 scenarios, a close above the green ring and a close below. Well, we deviated below the ring crossing point, and then bounced straight back up and closed above $55k at $58k. So it would appear that we played out scenario 1. What I have marked on the charts now is a potential target for the next green ring which is weeks ahead in Dec. I can't put too much warrant on this but I have some other charts that do share this price in confluence. PS: I have other intra-day charts with rings that give a lot more support and resistance targets. They all derive from BTC's historical macro pivots and extend to 2042. I may just share some of these over the coming weeks.Bitcoin Bullrun Rings UpdateBig move today, we finally crossed the big $100k milestone. A very sentimental and psychological level. In terms of this chart, I can't really say too much, it's going as planned. Higher prices ever since we crossed the last green ring. What we are currently doing is approaching the next green ring, which might pose as resistance. I cant say that this will cause a major down turn, as I do have targets on other charts that do should confluence to this level however, in regards to this chart we have to monitor as we get close to it. Lastly the next pivot ring is not until Dec 2025 and this could very well end the Bullrun. It is too far to judge from here but what I will say is that if we continue to up and even some sideways action, then this chart does support that bias. Lets tag that $112k target first...Congrats BTC!A 2025 Bitcoin Bullrun Rings Update2025 has begun and Bitcoin has started off with some volatility. We concluded 2024 at a peak, and currently, it appears to be a local top. Notably, many of my predictions from my Dec 2024 update seem to hold significance. Since surpassing the green ring in July 2024, the price has consistently risen. While a temporary dip below the crossing-ring price occurred, Bitcoin rebounded and closed well above it on a weekly basis.We are now approaching the next green ring, which I previously indicated could pose resistance. While the price reached $108,000, nearing the green ring, this marked the most recent peak. One month later, today Bitcoin closed above the next green ring on the 3D. However, based on the weekly timeframe, we are currently trading below it. To confirm a positive signal and continue the upward trajectory, Bitcoin must close above the green ring at $101,000. And if this occurs we don't want to see it close back under again. Currently, the 3D is positive but unconfirmed. I will provide an update and potentially review this chart, as numerous rings have already been cleared, and few remain. The final significant ring confluence I anticipate is approximately 12 months from now.I do another additional ring that I've appended to the chart. It appears to be within an area of that $111-12k price range. InterestingI'll be closing this chart and continuing it on a new Bitcoin Bullrun Ring 2025+ chartStay tuned

In this chart, I uncover price levels across an identified cyclical pattern hidden within Bitcoin.I was initially hesitant to publish this, as I had been pondering the theory for a few days. However, as the price approaches the Phase 2 level, I believe the timing cannot be ignored, and a reaction may be imminent as Bitcoin could be on the verge of breaking out into Phase 2... I've posted a screenshot prior to where BTC is now (below)My discovery in finding this was not intentional nor was it believable. However, after identifying some familiar projective price targets deriving from Bitcoin's first cycle the compelling results left me intrigued and were enough for me to continue. Whilst continuously applying my method more and more results seemed to match with key pivotable phases. Once I hit 2020, I was sure to expect some variances, but to my surprise, there was not, and price levels were again matched to pivotable levels. It is to that point I followed through into 2024 and beyond. As stated in the chart there is no trickery rather, there is logic and reason. It appears, these predictions beyond 2024 are realistic and do not point to crazy moon boy levels. So with that, I leave this here to revisit and pay my respects.Some Observational and Key Points:I base some findings on a 2 x 8-year cycle rather than the conventional 4-year cycle. However, it may appear shorter than expected. Just as there are diminishing returns, there too is an aspect of diminishing cycle timing.While cycles are often recognised by their low and high targets, not many observe the time it takes to surpass a previous all-time high (ATH) or low. This is interesting because Bitcoin does not exhibit this repetitive behaviour in its history.I observed the peaks and troughs while noting the counts and periods across cycle phases and took a visual snapshot towards 2022-24 playing into more likely that of 2013-16.I've projected 2 ATHs as a range due to the nature of placement. The first target is primary, and wicks above could stretch into the second. Projections are also based on a 2-week (close) timeframe.Final comments:This is not an indication to be mega bullish and is NFA. The chart merely highlights developments I've identified and is not certain to play out, although quite probable. It is more of a "let's look back and indulge" - at least for me.Thanks and Enjoy!Here is a easier view of the chartUpdate: The 2-week close has surpassed the Phase 2 Breakout target. This occurred much sooner than in previous cycles, which does not invalidate the chart's analysis. While timing isn't the primary focus here, the emphasis lies on respecting the forecasted levels. According to the analysis/theory depicted in this chart, the probabilities suggest a bullish uptrend and continuation. It is plausible to anticipate a retest of this phase at $44,800 at a later stage before further continuation. Although not essential, a healthy retest would provide strength and reinforce market structure. If the below Breakout Phase 1 targets are not hit then it is either a matter of time before we do or this theory is invalidated and we are breaking a cyclical pattern.Hey, so I think today is a good day to post an update. Staying true to what was written in Phase 2 Breakout seems to be playing to fruition. I have placed my other mini target and breakouts which are not in the main chart but for an update, we have now broken above the $53k resistance and appear to be on the road to new ATHs. I'd be paying attention to $59-60k as this could be a nice little consolidation range.Time for an update as I want to shout out this BTC chart idea. So far this has being playing out nicely. Today BTC's 2 weekly closed below the $71k target. So there are few possible scenarios that could now play out:- We continue and blast through onto the 2nd leg of this phase and top out near $91k turning $71k into support.- We range, with wicks up and down around the $71k range, with a close below the target on LTFs daily, 3D, weekly etc (< 2W)- We witness a greater pull which poses greater opportunities below $71k and continue upward slowly over the coming weeks to months.Takeaways from previous reactions:Historically 2/3 times we rejected and closed below this projective target, this would now be 3/4 times. Previous the drawdowns after being rejected ranged from 40%-80%, so there has been one serious dump (fake out).Closing in new price discovery would be probable for continuation, but be mindful of the above as we did exhibit a serious fake out (flash crash) back in 2013.Closing statement:Since we closed below, we might now be seeing an whipsaw action that could open opportunities where it could mean that we come down lower in a proper correction. Although not necessary there is another 2 weeks window before we get another close. As previous indications suggests a greater pull-back could be in order, I believe it maybe short lived. There will be only a small chance to get in. I also do not believe that the below projections will get hit. Time to stay focused, the trend is UP and over the next few days I think we might be seeing some volatility come back in. Please see my other charts as those also show some confluence for strong yet quick corrective retracements.Another little update on this chart. Apologises, I never actually posted the 2 weekly, not realising that this screenshot was the 1 week. However, needless to say as mentioned 2/3 times (now 3/4) we rejected and close below. So probabilities would slightly lie in that favor. I also indicated that there would be a sign of a greater pull back if we closed below my projected target at $71k. It did temporarily stretch a little higher but now the question remains from what I updated in my previous closing statement, is it a short lived or a lower proper correction? Just know that a pullback could be up to 40% which brings us right back to the Phase 2 Breakout at $44,800, however, it is not what I see. I remain confluent with my other charts that do signify lower timeframe signals, ultimately these are what leads into the bigger moved. In this chart we wait and watch for the next 2 week close.In this screenshot I have added another projective chart which could be a level to be considered if a greater pull-back comes to fruition.Small little update as it seems timing was on point here. Not to say we cannot retrace lower as mentioned in my previous update, but the added projected target for now has be hit. I mere $30 off. 5 days until the next 2 week close and wicks below can occur, as long as close back above. We remain patience and see if this level can be break or hold.Another 2 week close update:Well the results as mentioned in my previous update "wicks below can occur, as long as close back above" appeared to have played out. We held and closed back above the 62k price. Currently sitting within both projective targets, I suspect for this next 2 weeks, we do attempt to climb higher and not spend too much time within this range. Although it could still play out, 69k is key level, however, I'll be more confident if we hold and close above $72k (weekly-2W). Keep in mind that within this time we could experience a rapid sharp wick below the previous 2W low. This, in my opinion, if it were to occur and not close below, would be super bullish. Let's revisit in the coming days...Another 2-week close update:Today we closed the 2-week period above the previous ATH, albeit just barely. However, we still opened within this range. This does give slight probabilities to more upside, and currently, we are now sitting above the top side of the phase 3 breakout (distribution) at around $72k. We now want to stay above this level and close multiple dailies to solidify a break into new price discovery. If this occurs, then sentiment or the rules bounded by this chart might just come to fruition.Bearing in mind, this theory invokes a balance to price levels and major macro pivots, and the next target at $91k is something I'd be paying attention to, as it may just be the next area of interest that would leave a major sideways gapped range (much like 2020-2022) since breaking out of the previous phase. As for the bearish side, I need to emphasize, this chart does not depict timings, and closes below the levels may suggest a continuation back within the range. We need to focus on that if the charts starts showing any signs of reversing, until then it's following this trajectory.Thanks and this next 2 weeks will surely be a banger!A final 2 week close for April 2024:Today we closed below the phase 3 breakout which as mentioned in my previous update, this may suggest a continuation within the range. Since this has now occurred we either see a short term bearish reversal or a longer drawn out consolidation with the current range. I've placed another projective target ($58,300) which I would consider the last point of where we would need to hold. Remember wicks below are fine and based on this 2W timeframe we would need to close above in the coming weeks in order to remain bullish. I would also assess the daily closes if this target is reached.For the bullish take, I would now need to see a close above the Phase 3 Breakout target at $71kNote: I've also changed the temporary projective targets to dashes so that they are distinguishable from the original published chart.ThanksAnother 2 week close and we managed to tag the additional projective target ($58,300) I placed. However, we have also rallied right back into the consolidation range between 71-62k. I would hope that the tag of this lower target was it and now we move up higher, but I have to remain cautiously bullish. I do suspect that in May we should have a resolution. I also should re-instate and emphasize that Phase 1retest is not timebound, as since we have not retested this 32k breakout, there could be implications that we do retest this target before continuing. If we don't then it would be the first time we haven't retested this level. It could be weeks, months or even years. So this is one thing to keep an eye on.The next 2-week update will surely have something to talk about.A bit delayed in updating this chart, but we're also coming up to another 2-week close. So thought it might be worthwhile doing 2 updates in 1. Since our last 2 week close we pulled right out of the bottom side of the target of $58,366. Whilst PA went lower, wicks are fine as long as the close is above the target, and thats what we saw. Now PA has moved passed the $62,300 target and we are right back into the first peaked range again. The 2-week closures have not been outside either side of the projective targets and the price is also currently above previous ATHs and just grinding sideways. What I still need to see is a clear closure above the $71k target, once this is done I'll have stronger confidence we are moving into phase 3 (distribution) Whilst I say this, I do not rule out a close above and a strong hard wick down even to the low side 51k. A close under or around this at that price would suggest otherwise. Of course, If this does not occur then its clear skies ahead. I had anticipated that May 2024 was the month a major move would occur, so it could be around the corner for the closing of this month, or perhaps even early June. I'll post an update if we see anything or after our next 2 week close, whatever comes first!Bitcoin Prediction Update:I haven't posted in a while, and although PA has not made any major moves within the predicted points, it has been a sideways trail for over a month since my last post. Tomorrow we close yet another 2 week candle and have yet to invalidate this chart. I've added in a label for where the invalidation price is. If we close below this point I do suspect we go much lower. However, until that price is hit I remain still in favour of more upside. It is by far the longest time we have spent within this range between the 2 and 3 phases. This only occurred in 2013 on Bitcoin's second attempt to ATHs, which could be a repeating behaviour. Two things to watch for,:1. If we do close above $58,366 tomorrow then I suspect a continuation, and would be watching for retraces below but no closes even potentially on the daily beyond this price. 2. If we do close below $58,366 tomorrow then we will start looking at potentially lower targets and perhaps that $44, 900 retest price. I also suspect that the greater move that takes place should start no further than the beginning of August but confirmation is more likely within the next 10 days. You can refer to my Bullrun Rings Chart for timingBitcoin Prediction Update:I think this sideways boring price action calls for some updates to this chart. As it stands, the previous 2-week close happened to be above my invalidation target at $58,366, but as of writing this update, PA is now currently below. Although wicks below are fine, there is a looming idea that Bitcoin might be attempting to come further down and retest the Breakout of Phase 2 at $44,852. Unless the invalidation point is broken with a 2 week close I still have to maintain my stance on this chart. If we take a look at the weekly close on 1st July, you can see Bitcoin reclaimed this break down at the end of the 2-week close. We have less than 1 more week to see if this plays out again.I do suspect that probabilities could even lie on an even lower target of $32,448. This would surely turn some heads and open up changes to this chart but it's too early to call for this at this point in time. What I am watching for is some movement from now till around early-mid Sept. If the price tends to fall even further then it could be the time to start looking for reversals. If price goes up in the short term then we could witness a false move. Until then I do think we could more or less grind sideways a little bit longer.Bitcoin Prediction Chart:Well, this 2W close has put us in a predicament. We have officially closed below the last invalidation point at $58,366, in fact, we've closed well below. Although the last update I gave was a short-term scenario. I mentioned that if we go up sooner then we might see it as a false move. It was the next part of the scenario that I'll admit I was not expecting nor did I mention anything to occur, I expected a short-term dump (wick) or a continuing sideways grind. Neither really occurred as we did close a macro candle on new lows. Typically we don't see price action come back down in this phase. If this were the Phase 1 breakout I would possibly suggest that we could be coming back down to retest $32,448. So this time is slightly different and we retest phase 2 break out at approx. $44-43k instead? This could be what's happening. However, what I can say and this might be my only saving grace, is this "Sling Shot Gamble" target I put in the chart, just so marries with the low that we tagged in July. So if the rest of Sept is just a sideways grind but maybe it's also UP. Signs of rejection from anywhere around $57-58k. That just might be your time to jump 🤢Bitcoin Prediction Update:It's been a long time since my previous update on this chart, complacency got the better of me and I let price action prove to me it can come to fruition. The last "Sling Shot Gamble" comment may have been the right contrarian signal to pay attention to lol. Since then BTC has proven to make higher highs and as of late, has broken out of the long-term range. This chart was placed on the 2W which is 6 days away, I couldn't ignore that November's first week was the first weekly to ever close above that $71, 058 projected target! I think that was a signal enough for me to post an update and we are most likely going to close the 2W into Phase 3 of Distribution. Of course, not anything is certain but the road to higher projected targets is now potentially in the works. The first stop is 91k although I would think that some consolidation may take place around $84k, with some short retraces. Ultimately if we go back down to retest $71k in the short term I could see this as being somewhat more bullish, but don't let that hold you down. We most certainly could not see any decent pullbacks for a while. However, if we don't $71k would be a decent pullback target and could happen months from now. I will maintain my projective targets with a clear mindset. I now watch for weaknesses and short-term liquidations, that still show signs of strength.Chart update in terms of screenshot. I have now removed the dash retrace lines and moved the projected targets into the future to provide more space for PA. It's also nice to see that contained within my phases and projected targets, we still have not invalidated anything.I'll be making an update soon on this chart, as some thing have slightly come to fruition since my last post. Also critical point we are at now, was this the top, was my first target almost hit, or are we going to smash through it?Bitcoin Prediction Chart UpdateI've been holding on to providing an update on this chart because today we officially closed out the year 2024 within a 2W close. This chart was titled "A Bitcoin Prediction (2024)" and I think it's been playing out very well.We are now between the Distribution 3 and the Final Phase, or aka cycle phase. At current PA we are on the lower side of the 50% range between these two ranges at around $100k. To think that this chart was published almost a year ago and now we have closed a 2W crossing over into 2025 and haven't fallen off track is something to tell. I want to comment on something I mentioned in the initial publishing notes.- I've projected 2 ATHs as a range due to the nature of placement. The 1st target is primary, and wicks above could stretch into the second. Projections are also based on a 2-week (close) timeframe.I want to extend to my comment "Due to the nature of placement" the reason for two ATHs, is based on how I formulated the targets. One which is the primary is based on the $66,602 previous projected target, and the 2nd is based on the ATH in 2022. At the time, I neglected to mention that there are actually 4 ATH projected targets. So, with that, it suggests that 4 ATH near-based targets could occur with the 1st of which we were merely $550 away from achieving, although some charts may have actually hit it. In this screenshot I posted I have now added the 4th and final projected target for 2025 which gives us a range from $108k - $132k. So with this, I must point out some interesting observations since we have now entered into the final phase and could have seen a potential top, considering my first target was practically hit.1. The ranges in green that I have projected are situational, I do expect targets to be hit with piercing wicks (2W). But I don't expect we close above the top of the range. If we close above then these projections will slightly become less probable and we might be on the road to something much greater.2. Do I think the top is in? No, I don't and thats because we haven't made a 2nd hit and target again. For every ATH in the last 14 years, we had at least 2 attempts and I do not believe we have made that 2nd attempt yet. I will say though that it is more likely to be accepted if we do not make that 2nd attempt and reverse.3. Any 2W closes above the first 3 targets do suggest higher targets.4. Are we officially in the final phase, no we are not. Not until we cross my targets do we get into the blow-off final topping stage. So we could experience a much greater pullback nowClosing statementWe need to be very careful at these attempts to make new ATHs again, time and uncertain events can make rapid changes. We can be greedy and hope for more but understanding that this chart may have given some signs ahead of time and another attempt right now could impact future attempts. And finally I will also reveal the next bear market bottom when and if we hit these ATH projective targets. Although I am a strong believer in what you don't know tends to happen, and if you do then it never does.It's been a while since my last update, and much has transpired. I've allowed the market to unfold, anticipating another attempt at surpassing the all-time high (ATH). However, I've overlooked the data within the chart. Historically, each ATH has aligned closely with projected levels. It would be imprudent to assume we'd break through these projections significantly.As previously stated, another ATH attempt has indeed occurred, reaching $109,354. This surpasses the initial projected cycle top target. While this doesn't definitively signal the cycle's peak, it strengthens the possibility that we've reached a top earlier than anticipated.Where are we now? Well it's been a few months and we've done nothing but head down, breaking back down into the previous phase. While this is within possible scenarios I do note that there are key levels that we need to break before I consider we are going to head into another bear market. I've added a "Slingshot Level" at $73,874. We might test this price and replicate the 2021 double-ATH pattern.With this all being said, I intend to create a new Bitcoin prediction chart for 2025. This will focus primarily on current cycle top but also revealing the next bottom price. I'll be closing this chart down and creating a new one in the coming days. Depending on where PA takes us. I'll be sure to add the link to this chart once completed.Thanks, LM

In this chart, we take a look at a second Bitcoin Fib-Time Cycles concept (2/5). Refer to the original idea for concept #1 linked below. This Concept #2 is an alternative 8-step cycle phase to my original concept. This zooms out further and takes Bitcoin from a greater 2-phase cycle perspective. This concept is for the long-term investor who aims to track major Bitcoin phases when time is not on their side. Treat each signpost phase as a ranged period mindset until the next is triggered. This is not to be conflicted with the original concept, however, another perspective.In this second concept, the positioning of the trend-based Fib-Time Extensions has been drawn from Bitcoin's inception to the first impulse rally from 2009 to its 2017 all-time high. From there it is projected sequentially again to 2026. The reasons for placement are through an observational nature in the structure of the cycles, or at least how I see it. From 2009 > 2011 > 2013 > 2017 as being marked one cycle, to 2017 > to now as a potential being marked as the second cycle. A repeat of this cycle however is on a larger scale. The ATHs to cycle lows across these two cycles are also noted as 2011's low from ATH was -93% whereas 2013 was 86%. Thus in 2017, it was -84% and to date 2022 is -76%. It appears that it is 1 larger drop proceeding by a lesser % drop. Note: These vertical projections are not manually placed; they are based on Fibonacci sequence numbers derived from the noted placements (0-1). Interestingly, where they end up relates to the major pivots across the start and end of the sequence.Importantly, this is not a price prediction or estimation, nor does it offer an overall bearish or bullish take. Although the outlook seems bullish, cycles can play out over the years, and we may not have seen Bitcoin's final cycle just yet. This is why this is an alternative concept to others I have been exploring. More alternatives in the coming weeks and months.This merely presents a conceptual analysis of Bitcoin's time and cycles to date, highlighting key pivotal points worth watching for. Timing can be just as crucial as managing risk. Having a plan to correlate these factors allows you to spend less time watching charts and more time enjoying whatever you want.Key Takeaways:With a 1-2 weeks variance, each fib level (signpost) approximately triggers the next phase. It is within that phase expect the noted legend and take that mindset.Each fib range marks approximately 2900 days (8yrs)Note that 0.5 is not an actual fib level.Once a cycle of phases is completed, rise and repeat.We are 8 weeks, 3 days until we hit the next phase (Climb the Wall of Worry)This current second iteration cycle is projected to end in Dec 2025.This is purely a concept and not financial advice. I apologise for the resolution. A screenshot can be viewed here:First update since posting this chart. Its been a while but we are now in midst of transitioning into a new signpost. "Climbing the Wall of Worry". There is no clear exact dates here but it is something to remain cautious of. The signpost legend states:6. Begin to climb the wall of worry, it won't be easy, ignore the noise and embrace the break of major resistance.Seems rather fitting to the current market conditions. We will have to wait and see within the next few weeks, if we are now going to be heading down or breaking through and clearing the 2021 ATH. If this does play out, following history, we may grind upwards ever so slowly until the next signpost in Jan 2025. Personally I do favour my Concept #3 although anything can happen.

12 statistics for 12 historical Decembers:December Marks pretty pivotable points in Bitcoin history. Typically the 19th-31st of December marks some decent moves, with either a slight pause for continuation or a major reversal.12 statistics for 12 historical Decembers:- AVG. Overall Returns +15.26%- AVG. Positive Returns +52.73%- AVG. Negative Returns -28.45%- 7/12 saw Red candle closes, 5/12 saw Green. (2023 will likely be 6/12)- 6/12 saw January close lower than Dec, whilst 6/12 did not.- 4/12 we never saw Dec low prices again.- 4/12 proceeded with a Jan-Feb monthly retraces (didn't close < Dec), whilst 4/12 continued higher.- 4/12 saw lower prices proceeding more than 6 months.- 3/12 were in mid bull markets (wave 3)- 2/12 marked ATH's and to date 2/12 marked ATL's.- 1/12 saw sideways action for 4 consecutive months- 1/12 marked false low reversal signal (COVID)In summary, for the 13th December close given the timing of cycles, this does mark a midterm turning point between cycles. Generally, at this point, it is more probable for a slight -25% retrace before continuation. Statistics on lower Dec ratios (<4/12) would suggest that in Q1 2024 we may just get the dip, but for how long will the Santa Rally continue? $48-50k high seems very likely but a close <31K in the coming months on the retrace would prove something else is at play.Sorry for rez, here is a better screenshothttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Wu1MKyV3/

Here we look at a quirky emoji infographic showcasing one of five potential Bitcoin cycle concepts. Using trend-based Fibonacci Time Extensions, I've drawn them since the inception of Bitcoin's first impulse rally from 2009 to its 2013 all-time high. These are then projected sequentially four times to 2025. While it seems simple, and not perfect, it appears to be quite effective and has not been invalidated to date.Importantly, this is not a price prediction or estimation, nor does it offer an overall bearish or bullish take. Although the outlook seems bullish, cycles can play out over years, and we may not have seen Bitcoin's final cycle just yet. This is why it's the first of five concepts (long & short Term) I'll explore and adapt alternatives in the coming weeks and months.This merely presents a conceptual analysis of Bitcoin's time and cycles, highlighting key pivotal points worth watching. Timing can be just as crucial as managing risk. Having a plan to correlate these factors allows you to spend less time watching charts and more time enjoying whatever you want.Key Takeaways:With a 1-2 weeks variance, each fib level (signpost) approximately triggers the next phase. It is within that phase expect the noted legend and take that mindset.Each fib range marks 1456 days with 728 being the halfway point of each sequence. Note that 0.5 is not an actual fib level.Once a cycle of phases is completed, rise and repeat.We just passed the Halfway point in early Nov 2023.This current cycle is projected to end in Nov 2025.This is purely a concept and not financial advice. I apologise for the resolution. A screenshot can be viewed here:https://www.tradingview.com/x/Frl4TOW0/Enjoy!I thought it was would wise to post an update on the Fib Time Concept #1. On May the 13th this ending weeks close we exit out of Half Time opportunity and enter into a new phase signpost ofSteady Ready > The hard works done, take a break, we good!As the description suggest, we should start to see some clear indications that this down turn could be coming to a close. Bear in mind sign post do not trigger the move, they only set the tone over the coming weeks within the signpost ranges. It could be weeks before we see anything. We will have to see if this theory plays out or not.Update: Weekly closed and we are now in the Steady Ready phase. Zooming in on the daily, for when this fib time triggered seems to actually took off on the exact day. Although I base this on a weekly timeframe it's nice to see that we got a projected move upward. Typically on the close of the week surpassing the signpost, we do not see price reenter below ever. Will this time be different or not?

In this theory we take the 2013 cycle as a trend line and place the correction from ATH > ATLs. History claims that in every cycle we have completed this pattern. There are 3 set rules in order to confirm a bottom is being made.Note: These trendline are all identical and are not manipulated in anyway. Trendlines may vary on other BTC pair charts. 2013 Cycle - Marks the Power of 3 (Template)1. Bottom Trend Line - Marks from absolute bottom target to previous low.2. Median Trend Line - Marks from absolute bottom target to 50% projection retracement.3. Top (Confirmation) Trend Line - Marks from absolute cycle top draw down to intersect points of 1 and 2 and must not cross or overlap. At point 3 confirmation you need to see a PIN point mark.Based on this theory, when these 3 lines intersect at their lowest point and it marks a cycle bottom, you have confirmation.I've marked that a Fib Ring to POC from 2018 as a point that could be potentially marking a confirmation bottom. If this mark is not hit then it is much further down.Well just an update zoomed inSo I will close this theory off as target has been missed and we have surpassed the target area. In fact the ring provided support and we have since rallied up.

MFI (Money Flow Index) period adjustment. The default setting is 14-periods, but this can be adjusted to suit analysis needs. A shorter timeframe makes the indicator more sensitive. A longer timeframe makes it less sensitive.Given the less sensitive, the extreme measure are more prone to real Money Flow.Bitcoin Cycle MFI LowsObserve the MFI Period at 50 for smooth sensitive on the weekly. - 2012 $3 difference from cycle low ($2 -$5) reading of 40.05- 2015 Cycle low triggered from MFI reading of 39.54- 2018 Cycle low (2 week variance) triggered again from MFI a reading of 39.44- 2022 MFI just triggered another 39.03 Note: 2018 had bullish divergence on the proceeding 2 weeks after 39.44 reading printed.- Average reading of 39.5125 over the yearsMFI at 50 level has now printed a new lower low at 35.34. This has now marked a super low reading from the entire BTC history.About time I did an update on this Chart considering we have gone much lower on MFI and in price, however the MFI on 50 Smooth has now only preceded to go upwards ever since 24th of Oct 2022. Interesting, looking back in history how this played out...On top of this the MFI has printed the lowest it ever has, a reading of 36.54