JamesRennie

To first look at Ray we can start with RAYUSDT and move to RAYSOL and RAY BTC.RAY is not sitting below all of the moving averages. Not an ideal position. So far MACD cross down does not mean much as the week has not ended yet. Ideally to stay bullish it need to end the week not crossed down.Stoch RSI cross downBelow 0.015 there is elevated risk that RAYSOL puts in a lower local low.RAYBTC also not looking great. With these charts it's pretty hard to make the case why I am long RAY. Let's try some long term fundamentals and see if that is a better picture. Ray is all about the saying own the shovels. As an exchange the better Solana does the better Ray likely does. It's a widely known DEX it's weaknesses are Solana not getting trade volumes again. Competitors where other DEX are better. Also DEX aggregators have risks the volume does not get sent to Ray. Disclaimer: The information provided in this post is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, market, or trading strategy does not guarantee future results. I am not a financial advisor. Please conduct your own thorough research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. You are solely responsible for any investment decisions you make.

I am definitely admittedly late to the party with Solana. Though I was very correct about the ride down to $8 and did not own any Solana for that. I was also wrong about The Return of Solana. During the ride down from ~$300 to ~$100 I was able to get some Solana. Though most of it is liquid staked Solana now. As seen in the image I think currently what makes the most sense is this being a pullback of the last rally in Solana.I think focusing on daily Stoch RSI is more interesting currently then MACD and RSI. Looking to stay above 0.382 FIB above while also seeing Stoch RSI move up. If either of those fail then my current thinking must be reconsidered. As I am looking at typically weekly/daily spot moves the risks are different then people using leverage. Even if I use really small amounts of leverage to get 1.01, 1.10, etc. returns but not 10x leverage as an example.Pros Solana is seeing a lot of use VC investors are likely try and push Solana to their peers, friends, etc. Drift seems to have more feature as a DEX then most of what I have seen on Ethereum and ETH L2's. Especially spot Pro Orders is really interesting feature that I don't see anywhere else. Solscan was total garbage previously but it seems better then Etherscan now. Like the kept adding feature and Etherscan did not change much. Look at Analytics and Portfolio tabs. Raydium is another interesting DEX. Portfolio page has nice UI. Focus on working products rather then design theory and posturing about ideal world setup. If retail feels like they missed out on Bitcoin buying Solana seems like a likely path.Cons Pump fun was a lot of the network activity Not seeing enough content on using Solana Apps Does not have the same decentralization and other crypto principles built into the community that Ethereum has. While short term it's a pro long term if your not careful where your going you can end up where you don't want to be.Not financial advice. DYOR.

Don't bother looking at ETHUSD if your not going to compare ETH to BTC also. So as you can see we now need to break above 0.02623. ETH must make sense from a risk reward perspective compared to BTC. Up till now that's not really been the case.ETH is the only asset other then Bitcoin many people have heard of. Many people are think how I know about Fart Coin $BINANCE:FARTCOINUSDT.P. It took many people 16 years to figure out Bitcoin and some still have not figured it out yet. If you live close to the sun it's hot. I mean you notice all the changes in the crypto industry. Most people aren't living in a place that they get crypto news. Though it's being added more and more to TV and Movies. Many movie/TV references make no sense. With ETH being 9 years old some people might have noticed now. Though it's definitely unclear how far ETH/BTC could go back up and also ETH/USD to new highs. We could look at some current pros and cons.Pros: Ethereum allows users to trade, save, borrow, etc.. without needing a centralized platform. Though people will tell you Bitcoin can be trading peer to peer. Smart contracts definitely sounds better the meeting in a dark alley. I am being harsh but mostly because I wish Bitcoin did not have so much large holder and centralized party risks. With the right setup you can basically live on ETH/EVM ecosystem. Content creators cover usage better then anything I have seen from other Blockchains. Having 100 videos about a savings and lending platform token and no videos about how to use it is not a good sign. Launch pads could see a massive growth now that there is less risk to starting a legitimate Crypto project. There seems to be less regulatory risk for how you get funding. With the focus shifting to did your product/company fail vs was it fraud. This has a huge impact to on chain funding to people desperately trying to build their ideas out. Platforms like Infinex allow users use L2 ecosystem without needing to understand navigating it. RWA the most logical place for RWA projects is on Ethereum. If you want to fractionalize a house Ethereum offers security for a large asset that other places just aren't there yet. The first on chain stock could be "Coin" the Coinbase stock they have show interest in doing so previously. That would also be the first S&P 500 asset on chain. That would likely happen on Ethereum L2 Base. Staking makes ETH an interesting cash flowing assets for investors. Fee less transactions probably is not very far away. Where the application creator pays your 1 cent fee to use there app on an L2.Cons Ethereum is still not generating enough fees. Having fees mostly going to L2's has made it not deflationary. Cross chain is still too clunky Community is really great at having a niche vibe but need to be relatable to a large audience. Messaging and direction can be very unclear. Bitcoin focused on "never changing", Solana focused "fast and cheap", Ethereum is likely about being robust chain where transactions can't be stopped. Though there is a lot of voices and not a lot of coordination. There is a fine line between decentralized and wondering lost. This is not financial advice. These are my personal opinions and observations. Do your own research before making any investment decisions.

Bitcoin as a store of value is not a new idea. I've been on this road a long time and my old posts are just timestamps of that. Currently price is sitting on the Dec/Jan highs. It appears that which was resistance before could become support now.The fact that the market reacts very fast to small market dips with fear seems like a good sign to me. Though only useful as an indicator in context. We did not break market structure and large buyers are still accumulating. Also retail interest stats like google search have not hit new all time highs. Though google specifically might be a bad metric as AI search is highly used now. There is still a risk of something breaking in US markets while rates stay up and Fed balance sheet is not growing. Though not clear what exactly would break. Kind of like stomping on an orange don't get caught up exactly where the peel breaks. QT is squeezing and you squeeze hard enough and pop. Even with them net buying 10 year US Treasury Bonds. It's still technically a QT environment. Last year bonds almost broke the banks before the Fed aloud those bonds to be listed full term value on the balance sheet. Effectively covering up the issue instead of fixing anything. (Bank Term Funding Program - BTFP) Pros Bitcoin has not yet rate seen US rate cuts Bitcoin has not yet see a new wave of money printing Fund managers suggesting 2% allocation which is no where close to being reached yet Recurring institutional buyers, such as corporations adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets (e.g., Strategy).Cons Large leveraged holders will need to watch cash flows vs interest payments. In 2022 bear market this was easy for Micro Strategy now renamed Strategy. The reason profits were roughly 7x interest payments. In 2024 that has dropped to 5x. They started with a lot of cash flow and found themselves sitting on melting pile of cash. If Bitcoin holdings out grow the software income enough then finding the money for interest payments becomes a new challenge. It's still not 100% clear long term how Bitcoin fits in a portfolio. Most narrative seems like you keep it in a locked room where you celebrate your great fortune that has no material benefits in your life. I think it's probably not that. Is it just something people collect and lend against? Act as a index for the greater crypto asset class that people rebalance? Cash flow with cover calls? Lend it out if Fiat fails it could act like gold being borrowed. Important Questions:What % allocation to Bitcoin makes sense to hold in a bear market?How do you grow Bitcoin holdings in a bull market?"This is not financial advice. These are my personal opinions and observations. Do your own research before making any investment decisions."