Fractaleer

Internet Computer Protocol is a unique project, that allows investors to accurately assess fundamentals. 2024 has been an amazing year for the project:ICP has been recognised as being the fastest blockchain in terms of max recorded transactions per second, outperforming Solana by more than 3 times (Cryptogics November 2024). In terms of compute, ICP is frequently burning more than 1 trillion 'cycles' per second, approximately 200x the 5B cycles/s it routinely burned a year ago. It is also reported to be the cheapest for transactions and data storage, by one or more orders of magnitude, depending on the blockchain it is compared with (Token Terminal December 2024). More than 4Tb of data is stored on ICP, more than 3.3x the data stored on Ethereum and potentially more data than is held on-chain by all other crypto projects combined. ICP is attracting developers at breakneck speed (3rd preferred blockchain for new developers), with fees collected up 40x year-on-year (Token Terminal December 2024).These metrics are impressive, but despite the heavy-hitting results booked to date, ICP is still ranked 39th with a market cap of (just) US$4.1B in the CoinGecko list of crypto projects, well below projects with no or little utility. This has led to some insiders referring to ICP as 'crypto's most undervalued project'.This month (January 2025), ICP will achieve 'positive cashflow', defined here as the point at which revenue from compute (ICP burned) exceeds the cost of the network (ICP minted to reward node providers). Refer to my post on Nuance for more detail (nuance.xyz/fractaleer/12095-434go-diaaa-aaaaf-qakwq-cai/icp-tokenomics-part-i). Apart from this critical milestone, the tokenomics of ICP are such that effective deflation is affected by the value of the ICP token. I built a model described in another Nuance post (nuance.xyz/fractaleer/12200-434go-diaaa-aaaaf-qakwq-cai/icp-tokenomics-part-ii) that estimates deflation (defined as a decrease in the ICP circulating supply) to be achieved in 2028, but at the current depressed ICP price below US$10, effective deflation will be achieved before this Christmas!!In the context of the above, I expect ICP to increase significantly in value this year and given the chart provided here, my expectation is that the price of ICP will flip on a dime this week with the news of ICP achieving positive cashflow ('operational profit'). My view is that 10x is achievable in 2025.I do not provide financial advice. The above expresses my personal view and may be way off the mark. Please do your own research but feel free to comment.

Quick T/A update for September 2024 - December 2025Monthly chart of NEAR price from the beginning. Purple and blue fibs are what I call 'Origin Fibs', which I use for medium to long-term crypto trading. When close together they can create trading zones that I check for historic resistance and support. One of my principles is that zones need to become 'confirmed support zones' before a meaningful push to the higher zones becomes more likely to occur.With crypto, hype and fear dramatically influences price, which is expressed in big peaks and sudden troughs. I therefore take a longer term view.With NEAR, the $8-$9 zone is a confirmed support zone, which in my view increases the likelihood of this zone being overcome in the short term and reduces the likelihood of a confirmation move (i.e. price can shoot through it without requiring a re-touch for confirmation).Trading Target Zone I ($11-$14) however, is a yet-unconfirmed support zone and therefore a different story. Selling in the high end within this zone, can result in a good buying opportunity later as the price meanders back down (potentially as low as $11, with an intra-month spike even below that) to confirm this zone as a support zone. Trading Zone II is highly likely to spark a pull-back before it may be overcome later. I'm not speculating beyond this point.Good luck NEAR hodlers and LT traders.

So where to now for BTC? In my previous post I explained that BTC had hit a major Primeval Fib (2207 level fib), which had thrown it sideways for a couple of months. While it is entirely possible that BTC could fall back again (e.g. to US$58k support zone) or even further, I think this is relatively unlikely. The chart is bullish in my opinion and I think the white fib in this chart is a reasonable target at ~$82k. I would expect some sideways action to follow that, with possibly a drop to the 2207 Primeval Fib at ~US$70.5k. But even if this is the result, that doesn't exclude the possibility of a proper push up to US$84k, which is marked by another old Fib (see previous post).I hate looking far into the future as charts ALWAYS develop different to what we expect, but my "cross-fingers & closed-eyes Ultimate Best Case" scenario for 2024 is to see price action hit the next Primeval Fib (the 3571 level fib) at US$114k. If that happens consider stepping out for a while! I think a short to medium term bullish scenario (3 month timeframe) is supported by the BTC.D chart - which charts BTC market dominance (first chart below). This chart shows BTC dominance levelling off, which makes me think ALT coins are going to outperform. As we know, this typically happens towards the end of a BTC push to the upside. The second chart below shows the same pattern to the end of 2021, followed by a big drop in dominance over 2022, when ALT coins pumped. And that brings me to my second point for this post. Do NOT discount the real possibility that quality ALT coins will increase in dominance (and count in ICP!) over the next three months and hopefully the remainder of 2024! Happy trading!https://www.tradingview.com/x/6nqimW5Z/https://www.tradingview.com/x/QPzD2AIV/

Okay - I've been wanting to shed some light on BTC price action for a long time so here we go:This is a monthly chart of the last 7 years of BTC and I've started with this chart because it should look interesting to all crypto investors/traders. Very few people talk about these purple Fibs and yet they explain much of BTC's historical price action. They are what you may want to call: the "Primeval Fibs" (or for you, milennials: the "OG Fibs"). They are the extension fibs of the first run of BTC from a fraction of a cent in 2009 to almost US$32 in 2011 (first chart below - quarterly chart - shows three key sets of fibs, including the purple primeval fibs). They start with the 1; 1.618, 2.618 levels but run all the way to the 2207 level and beyond. ((Note that if you think my extension Fibonacci sequence is a bit off above the 18 level, then know that MY set is the logical expansion of the Fibonacci multiplication factors (connecting the numbers in the Fib sequence) that start with 1.618; 2.618; 4.236 etc, and that the more familiar set (the one that awkwardly morphs from the multiplication factors into the Fibonacci sequence itself) is the weird version. Just sayin'...))Anyhow, what I'd like to note is the recent ATH perfectly stopped at the 2207 level of the Primeval Fibs set. Freaky, right? To think that extensions from the first run to $32 still have some influence on BTC price action today... But as you can see above, the price action from the last 7 years acknowledges these Primeval Fibs quite nicely.That is: with the notable exception of the period leading up and immediately following the 2021 ATH. Not sure why this nice patterns broke down there. But of course we should understand that price action in the real world is governed by quite a bit of chaos. Sometimes bouncing of a 100 day average, sometimes a Primeval Fib and sometimes just for no apparent reason at all. You can really apply these extension fibs to any nice move in the chart. In the second chart below (weekly chart) I've used two other old fib sets that I think have also helped shape the BTC chart and both appear to have influenced price action during the 2021 ATH period... So it's never as easy as you think, but really getting into a chart and back-testing Fibs does help you trade smarter.So what's next for BTC? I'll get into that and my hypothesis for why I think ALT coins will outperform over the next three months in Part II. Happy trading!https://www.tradingview.com/x/x7ROGHY8/https://www.tradingview.com/x/6bGRcFVY/

As expected, the last leg of correction in Bitcoin drove Pendle to the Fib it missed on the way up. Expect the remainder of this week to be a bit wobbly and unpredictable and then watch Pendle shoot for the moon in the months ahead!

I'm heavily invested in ICP and most of it is locked up for a minimum of 8 years, so yes, I'm biased... I think this has got to be THE most undervalued project in all of crypto.And so I'm perpetually disappointed with the uninspiring ICP/USD chart. What IS going on with that? Nothing to hold onto, nothing to indicate the price is coiling up, ready to spring out of its pattern and finally surprise crypto-heads the world over. It's easy to draw a teal arrow, and the one drawn in this chart - as anyone can see - is not grounded in T/A. In fact, one could clearly make the case for a disturbing trend of ever less convincing highs (red curve) with chances of a drop down more likely than a pump up. Also, there is a lack of significant historic support, which makes trading ICP uncomfortable. And I'm not saying that a drop is unlikely to occur. ICP has been taken on by crypto heavyweights in the past and may be pounced on again in the future. BUT, there is another way of looking at ICP and of trading it responsibly (if trading is ever responsible).I suggest that for trading purposes, it is much better to use the ICP.D chart (first chart below) or the ICP/BTC chart (second chart below). These are very similar, but my preference goes out to the ICP.D chart which shows the history of ICP market cap dominance. This is a personal preference, related to my favourite way of calculating Fibs. The ICP.D chart has some interesting recent runs and drops that - interestingly - the ICP/BTC chart lacks. These pumps and drops allow fibs and trendlines to be drawn and also show some support by significant moving averages on the daily chart. A triangle is the main feature (on both these charts) and we're right at the bottom, pretty close to some other support features (MAs). This makes me think that ICP IS in fact coiling up with investors in silk slippers accumulating ICP sneakily. But you can make up your own mind of course: I've always has a lively imagination.Now, if I had even more appetite for ICP accumulation (which I don't - I'm already out on a limb) I'd consider buying the day we see some long bullish confirmation candle. With a relatively short stop to be activated in the event of a weekly close below the triangle. That'd be a neat and potentially responsible trade. Note I've also added the weekly ICP.D chart with a crazily optimistic trendlines for peeps that are on my ICP buss... (chart at the bottom)https://www.tradingview.com/x/4vZEHGcu/https://www.tradingview.com/x/ia8lkEHh/https://www.tradingview.com/x/dfBdfXl7/

I love TA on crypto! Check out the shenanigans on NEAR price action as BTC tracks sideways as part of a presumably minor hick-up...First we had a triangle and what looked like a breakout (first chart below). I posted on this, expecting NEAR to take off (see link). But as BTC pulled back a little this turned out to be a fake-out and price fell rapidly (second chart below). However the fake-out allowed a channel to be charted to provide support for a reasonable (limited downside) exit strategy (third chart below). The price of NEAR behaved by recognising the bottom of the channel so there was no need to bail out (fourth chart below). And viola! - we're back at the top! Expect a small pullback here (noting I'm expecting BTC to correct a bit more), but this chart screams for a breakout to the upside and then an ATH is well and truly probable. https://www.tradingview.com/x/4PjQdBvs/https://www.tradingview.com/x/SQgvq7N1/https://www.tradingview.com/x/TzWY9NS5/https://www.tradingview.com/x/qrO0NjyN/

I like Fibs. Especially in crypto. Wherever I see a well-defined and significant run up or run down in the historic price action I draw some basic extension Fibs (yes, sometimes upside down as well - I don't care...). Then I check whether these Fibs have historically been, and are being, acknowledged. If so, then that set of Fibs is what I use for trading. As I need some historic price action to feel comfortable, I'm not particularly interested in new crypto's and, as usual, I made it to Pendle well and truly late for the party (little green arrow shows where I finally got in). But what saw I liked. Pendle responds really well to one particular set of Fibs that are the upside down extension Fibs of the original run down from late-2021 to mid-2022 (see weekly linked chart of Pendle's full price history below). All the Fibs from this set that the price action has encountered during its meteoric rise have been properly acknowledged - except for one... After duly acknowledging the 1, the 1.618, and the 2.618 fibs (white circles), the Pendle price action completely ignored the 4.236 fib in late March (orange circle)! This took me by surprise as I clocked out and cashed in my chips at that level (red arrows). Damn!Needless to say, the next fib on the list, i.e. the 6.857 fib, is where the price stopped. Now, you can call me superstitious, but I believe that there's NO WAY that Pendle can keep going up without first coming down. :) Bitcoin is still on a sideways wobble and I'm expecting it to correct just that little bit more before the deck is cleared for a further run up. If so, then I expect this to be the perfect opportunity for Pendle to do what it is supposed to do and come down to recognise the 4.236 fib in this set! A proper acknowledgement would be a spike down and a weekly (or at least a clear daily) close on or near this fib level. https://www.tradingview.com/x/fVam6MgM/

Let's talk about the elephant in the crypto village square: Bitcoin. Now that we're looking at a correction, it makes sense to talk about where that may end and - for those of you that successfully took some profits - when and where you may want to re-deploy those funds.I am of the view that Fibonaci levels - particularly old ones - are extremely helpful for predicting turning points when it comes to BTC. Small quick pullbacks may not involve recognising significant Fibs and can occur randomly or involve pivot levels (not shown). (I rarely trade those because I have a F/T job and do not have time to trade daily and also I find that trading smaller insignificant levels can be really frustrating and result in missing large runs...) However, when pullbacks stretch into weeks (current situation), then significant Fibs start coming into play.I'll explain below where the blue and white fibs depicted in this image come from, but the blue Fib depicted here at ~US$59,600 is the 48 Fib of the original run and was initially ignored as the price stormed through it, but is now working like a magnet for BTC price and my view is that the correction will not end until this Fib is properly recognised. A proper recognition of this Fib may involve a spike down over a few hours (possibly a day) but then a weekly (or daily) close on or very close to the Fib line. These old Fibs have been influential in shaping the price history of BTC to date, as can be seen from the linked images below. The thick dotted blue lines are the extension Fibs from the first long run of BTC between 2009 and Nov 2013 (first link below). The thin dotted white lines are the 'extension' fibs drawn from the 2014 crash in price. [Note the white lines are not drawn the conventional way - what can I say: I'm a rebel.]The blue fibs have been massively influential and have accurately predicted most peaks and troughs (second link below). I think it's at least LIKELY that Bitcoin will not find a way forward before it has planted itself squarely on this 48 Fib over the coming week(s). Happy trading!https://www.tradingview.com/x/FZkAE3SM/https://www.tradingview.com/x/8KtoVXMG/

Toncoin has had a fantastic run, since coming out of its origin triangle six weeks ago. But now the chart suggest a break may be imminent. Strong divergence on the daily and weakening peaks. I've stepped out for a while.