FaithdrivenTrades

🔥 Fundamental Drivers 📢 Trump Tariff Announcements (via Truth Social & WH releases):25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea effective August 1.Targeted retaliatory threats for BRICS-aligned nations.Executive orders signed and trade letters sent.➡️ Market reads this as risk-off & inflationary = Gold strength.📉 Goldman Sachs Predicts Early Fed Rate Cuts:Fed terminal rate cut forecast lowered to 3.3-3.25%.Cuts expected to begin as early as September, citing:Softening labor dataWeakening inflation trajectory➡️ Rate cut bets weaken USD = gold demand spikes.🧊 DXY Reaction:Dollar Index cooled after initial rise — confirms market shift away from USD haven toward gold hedging.

🧠 MACRO OUTLOOK FOR GOLD1. 📉 Central Bank Rate Sentiment (Macro Risk Bias: Neutral to Bullish Gold)Central BankMeetingProbable MoveCut ProbabilityHold ProbabilityFedJul 30Hold4.7%95.3% ✅RBAJul 8Cut94% ❗BoEAug 7Cut80.8% ❗ECBJul 24Hold9.3%90.7% ✅BoCJul 30Hold26.5%73.5% ✅RBNZJul 9Hold16.9%83.1% ✅✅ Most majors (Fed, ECB, BoC, RBNZ) are expected to hold — gold-friendly❗RBA and BoE rate cuts ahead — mildly bullish for gold2. 💸 FED CUT PROJECTION (Through End of 2025)Jul: 93.3% chance to HOLDSep: 73.1% chance of CUTOct: 55.9% chance of CUTDec: 69.9% chance of CUT🟡 Progressive rate cuts expected by year-end, favoring a longer-term bullish trend on gold⚙️ VOLATILITY & IMPLIED RANGE (XAUUSD)Implied Volatility: 14.09%Range EstimateValue1SD High3355.382SD High3385.783SD High3414.87 🔺1SD Low3267.562SD Low3237.733SD Low3209.36✳️ Key Resistance: 3385–3415🛑 Key Support: 3237–3209Current price at 3336.6 sits mid-range, slightly bullish📰 FUNDAMENTAL NEWS REACTION (NFP & GOLD)DateNFP Actual vs ForecastGold ReactionJul 3144k vs 126k forecast (Hot) 🔥-200 ticksJun 6139k vs 126k (Hot) 🔥+36, -104 ticksMay 2177k vs 138k (Hot) 🔥-105 ticks🔴 Gold reacted bearishly to strong NFP — Jobs > Forecast = USD strength → Gold weakness🔍 MARKET FLOWS (MOC)IndexBuySellNetNASDAQ345M-86M+258M ✅MAG7113M-41M+72M ✅S&P 5001055M-1041M+13MDOW 30106M-168M-62M ❌🟢 Risk-on sentiment visible from large NASDAQ & MAG7 inflows🟡 Caution on S&P🔴 DOW weakThis supports a mild bearish pressure on gold short-term due to risk appetite.✅ CONCLUSION (For Gold Traders)🔻Short-Term Outlook (This Week):Bearish bias due to recent strong NFPs + net equity inflowsRate cuts are delayed (Fed holding in July)Expect gold to retest 1SD/2SD lows around 3267–3237 if USD strength persists🔺Mid-Term Outlook (Q3-Q4 2025):Dovish tilt from major banks (RBA, BoE, Fed by Sep-Dec) supports long-term gold upsideKey upside potential into 3385–3415 area if dollar weakens and yields drop

🧭 Fundamental Bias: Bearish (-7/10)– 🔥 NFP beat: 147K vs 110K → Fed cuts unlikely soon– 💵 Dollar & Bond Yields UP– 📈 Risk-on (Stocks ATH)– 🛢️ Oil dropped = easing inflation– 🏛️ No fresh Fed dovish hints– 🕊️ Geopolitics stable for now (Iran/Trump)📍 Technical View:Price consolidating under supply zone (~3330).

🟨 XAUUSD: Possible Pullback Before Major Reaction – Eyes on Reversal ZoneFaithDrivenTrades | July 2, 2025Gold continues its bullish climb toward a possible intraday reversal zone (3371–3380). Technicals show a clean sweep of previous liquidity + bullish candle confirmation on H1. However, the broader fundamental backdrop now tilts toward short-term USD strength due to:🔻 ADP NFP Miss:ADP: 33K vs 99K forecastIndicates weaker labor market, but Gold's reaction muted due to anticipation of Friday’s NFP and mixed inflation fears.📊 Oil Inventory Surplus:Crude: +3.845M vs -2.7M expectedSuggests soft demand → deflationary pressure → less urgency for Fed rate cuts.📰 Trump Tariff Headlines:Trump announces new 20%-40% tariffs with Vietnam.Short-term USD pressure on trade uncertainty, but market sees longer-term USD safe-haven appeal.📉 Fed Cuts Still Priced In (Sept, Dec):CME Fed Futures show 2 rate cuts expected → supports bullish gold structure long-termHowever, dollar’s resilience from ISM rebound + JOLTS adds near-term volatility🧠 Market Sentiment Summary:Macro: Mixed → USD Strengthening Short-TermRisk: Sentiment cautious, NFP Friday keyBias: Intraday Bearish Correction Possible, bigger trend still bullish

Fed rate cut expectations, weak DXY, and deficit concerns support bullish bias. Watching for structural shift (CHoCH) to confirm entry zone reaction.🔹 Markets continue to price in Fed rate cuts starting September, with odds rising after recent dovish tones and political pressure.🔹 US deficit concerns resurfaced after CBO warned that the Senate tax bill could add $3.3 trillion, weighing on long-term dollar stability.🔹 Meanwhile, DXY and real yields remain under pressure, weakening the USD and reinforcing gold’s macro support.🔹 Gold positioning is clean (net longs trimmed), giving room for upside if momentum returns.🔹 Despite risk-on equity sentiment, underlying safe-haven flow stays active due to lingering Iran-China oil trade tensions and fiscal risks.🧭 Current structure favors a bullish retracement or reversal setup.Watch for reaction at upper trendline zone for either continuation or rejection setups.

Our previous setup hit +415 pips, but as always, we stayed sharp — our last position was closed at BE +50 pips to protect gains ahead of volatility.📊 Current Scenario:Gold is building structure again around support blocks with two potential short-term plays:1️⃣ Re-entry Setup: Price is forming a clean pullback into a lower support block. If it confirms, we may see bullish continuation toward LQ-POOL (3388–3393).2️⃣ Deeper Sweep Possibility: If it fails to hold above the second block, watch the next zone or even a YTL bounce.Key Zones to Watch:📌 Support Blocks: 3355–3366🔼 Target Zone: LQ-POOL 3388–3393

Price tapped into the Reversal Block and is now dancing under trendline resistance—setting up for a potential breakdown. If momentum holds, we may see price gravitate toward the retest zone near 3,320 or even the gap magnet at 3,289. However, if buyers defend the YL zone, we could get a sharp bounce and retest the previous value areas.⚔️ Battle lines are drawn. Watch for break or bounce—momentum will speak.

Current market structure is testing the Order Block (OB) support right at POC/Trendline confluence.A bullish bounce is in play targeting yesterday’s high (YH) and value area high (VAH) if this zone holds.🔹 Price respected YL zone and OB🔹 Confluence: Trendline + POC + Order Block🔹 Bullish bias as long as above 3345📌 Bias: Short-Term Bullish🎯 TP: 3387–3392 (YH)❌ SL: Below 3345 (VAL)

We anticipated the gap fill and price did revisit the marked imbalance. A clean breakout from wedge and structure led to a +60 pip move. Currently, price is respecting the 0.5 - 0.618 Fib retracement zone after failing to break above the 0.382 (3058).💡Key Observations:Rejection at retest zone (3347–3358)0.618 level holding intraday structureBreakeven hit on last short (-2 pips slip)Bias remains bearish, targeting previous imbalance and OP zone below 3320📌 Reminder: That orange gap (breakout zone) still holds high probability for revisit.

XAUUSD 15Min Analysis – June 2Price broke out of the descending channel and tapped into a potential reversal zone. Still respecting the gap zone below, which may act as a magnet for price. Key levels ahead:Watch for reaction at the 3316–3331 resistanceClean breakout = bullish continuationRejection = short opportunity back to gap zone📌 Bias: Short-term bullish to key resistance zone, then watch for reversal🕳 GAP below = high chance of revisit⏳ Waiting for confirmation before re-entry