Technical analysis by FaithdrivenTrades about Symbol PAXG: Sell recommendation (8/4/2025)

🧠 Narrative Summary: Gold remains fundamentally supported by: 🇺🇸 US Factory Orders MoM came in at -4.8% (Forecast -4.8%, Previous 8.2%) – a sharp slowdown signaling weaker manufacturing momentum. 🏛️ Markets now price an 80% chance of a 25bps Fed rate cut in September. 🧑‍💼 Fed Governor Adriana Kugler’s resignation opens the door for a dovish replacement (possibly by Trump). 🔥 Trump reportedly fired the BLS head over “data manipulation” accusations – raising data credibility risks. 📈 COT data shows speculator sentiment above 50%, confirming a bullish stance. ☑️ All signs point to a supportive macro backdrop for Gold. 🧪 My Bias (Short-Term View): Despite the strong bullish macro backdrop, I’m watching for a short-term technical correction today (Tuesday): “Markets often react in advance of data – and after such a strong run, a liquidity grab or pullback could create better entry zones.” 📉 Technical Breakdown: 🔹 15-Min Chart: Price is hovering near point of control/resistance, forming potential distribution. Clean bullish channel, but upside momentum is slowing. 🔹 4H Chart: Price has reached the upper edge of the descending channel. No proper retest on the lower channel → room for liquidity sweep below. RSI nearing overbought zone. 🎯 Trading Plan: Watching for a short-term sell-off / correction during Tuesday’s session. Will reassess based on Wednesday’s ISM Services & Fed speaker lineup. Not chasing highs — waiting for potential re-entry from discounted zones. 📌 Powell Watch: Despite dovish pricing, remember — Powell has held firm for months. One weak report may not be enough to guarantee a cut. “Slow to hire, slow to fire” still equals a balanced labor market.