Technical analysis by FaithdrivenTrades about Symbol PAXG: Sell recommendation (7/6/2025)

🧠 MACRO OUTLOOK FOR GOLD1. 📉 Central Bank Rate Sentiment (Macro Risk Bias: Neutral to Bullish Gold)Central BankMeetingProbable MoveCut ProbabilityHold ProbabilityFedJul 30Hold4.7%95.3% ✅RBAJul 8Cut94% ❗BoEAug 7Cut80.8% ❗ECBJul 24Hold9.3%90.7% ✅BoCJul 30Hold26.5%73.5% ✅RBNZJul 9Hold16.9%83.1% ✅✅ Most majors (Fed, ECB, BoC, RBNZ) are expected to hold — gold-friendly❗RBA and BoE rate cuts ahead — mildly bullish for gold2. 💸 FED CUT PROJECTION (Through End of 2025)Jul: 93.3% chance to HOLDSep: 73.1% chance of CUTOct: 55.9% chance of CUTDec: 69.9% chance of CUT🟡 Progressive rate cuts expected by year-end, favoring a longer-term bullish trend on gold⚙️ VOLATILITY & IMPLIED RANGE (XAUUSD)Implied Volatility: 14.09%Range EstimateValue1SD High3355.382SD High3385.783SD High3414.87 🔺1SD Low3267.562SD Low3237.733SD Low3209.36✳️ Key Resistance: 3385–3415🛑 Key Support: 3237–3209Current price at 3336.6 sits mid-range, slightly bullish📰 FUNDAMENTAL NEWS REACTION (NFP & GOLD)DateNFP Actual vs ForecastGold ReactionJul 3144k vs 126k forecast (Hot) 🔥-200 ticksJun 6139k vs 126k (Hot) 🔥+36, -104 ticksMay 2177k vs 138k (Hot) 🔥-105 ticks🔴 Gold reacted bearishly to strong NFP — Jobs > Forecast = USD strength → Gold weakness🔍 MARKET FLOWS (MOC)IndexBuySellNetNASDAQ345M-86M+258M ✅MAG7113M-41M+72M ✅S&P 5001055M-1041M+13MDOW 30106M-168M-62M ❌🟢 Risk-on sentiment visible from large NASDAQ & MAG7 inflows🟡 Caution on S&P🔴 DOW weakThis supports a mild bearish pressure on gold short-term due to risk appetite.✅ CONCLUSION (For Gold Traders)🔻Short-Term Outlook (This Week):Bearish bias due to recent strong NFPs + net equity inflowsRate cuts are delayed (Fed holding in July)Expect gold to retest 1SD/2SD lows around 3267–3237 if USD strength persists🔺Mid-Term Outlook (Q3-Q4 2025):Dovish tilt from major banks (RBA, BoE, Fed by Sep-Dec) supports long-term gold upsideKey upside potential into 3385–3415 area if dollar weakens and yields drop