Technical analysis by FaithdrivenTrades about Symbol PAXG: Sell recommendation (7/6/2025)

🧠 MACRO OUTLOOK FOR GOLD 1. 📉 Central Bank Rate Sentiment (Macro Risk Bias: Neutral to Bullish Gold) Central BankMeetingProbable MoveCut ProbabilityHold Probability FedJul 30Hold4.7%95.3% ✅ RBAJul 8Cut94% ❗ BoEAug 7Cut80.8% ❗ ECBJul 24Hold9.3%90.7% ✅ BoCJul 30Hold26.5%73.5% ✅ RBNZJul 9Hold16.9%83.1% ✅ ✅ Most majors (Fed, ECB, BoC, RBNZ) are expected to hold — gold-friendly ❗RBA and BoE rate cuts ahead — mildly bullish for gold 2. 💸 FED CUT PROJECTION (Through End of 2025) Jul: 93.3% chance to HOLD Sep: 73.1% chance of CUT Oct: 55.9% chance of CUT Dec: 69.9% chance of CUT 🟡 Progressive rate cuts expected by year-end, favoring a longer-term bullish trend on gold ⚙️ VOLATILITY & IMPLIED RANGE (XAUUSD) Implied Volatility: 14.09% Range EstimateValue 1SD High3355.38 2SD High3385.78 3SD High3414.87 🔺 1SD Low3267.56 2SD Low3237.73 3SD Low3209.36 ✳️ Key Resistance: 3385–3415 🛑 Key Support: 3237–3209 Current price at 3336.6 sits mid-range, slightly bullish 📰 FUNDAMENTAL NEWS REACTION (NFP & GOLD) DateNFP Actual vs ForecastGold Reaction Jul 3144k vs 126k forecast (Hot) 🔥-200 ticks Jun 6139k vs 126k (Hot) 🔥+36, -104 ticks May 2177k vs 138k (Hot) 🔥-105 ticks 🔴 Gold reacted bearishly to strong NFP — Jobs > Forecast = USD strength → Gold weakness 🔍 MARKET FLOWS (MOC) IndexBuySellNet NASDAQ345M-86M+258M ✅ MAG7113M-41M+72M ✅ S&P 5001055M-1041M+13M DOW 30106M-168M-62M ❌ 🟢 Risk-on sentiment visible from large NASDAQ & MAG7 inflows 🟡 Caution on S&P 🔴 DOW weak This supports a mild bearish pressure on gold short-term due to risk appetite. ✅ CONCLUSION (For Gold Traders) 🔻Short-Term Outlook (This Week): Bearish bias due to recent strong NFPs + net equity inflows Rate cuts are delayed (Fed holding in July) Expect gold to retest 1SD/2SD lows around 3267–3237 if USD strength persists 🔺Mid-Term Outlook (Q3-Q4 2025): Dovish tilt from major banks (RBA, BoE, Fed by Sep-Dec) supports long-term gold upside Key upside potential into 3385–3415 area if dollar weakens and yields drop