Fahrrr

This isn't exactly a new idea, but an updated visualisation of what I think the bitcoin price will do in the next three years. It's been over a year since the peak at $69,000 and we're at the bottom of the power law corridor. It's reasonable to think that the bottom is in, or that we are close to the bottom, but that doesn't mean we are going straight to the moon immediately. After the last two bear markets, the price retraced back to between the 0,786 and 0,618 fibonaccci levels, which is also where the last two halvings happened. If that happens again it means the price will be between $40,000 and $50,000 on the next halving (assuming we don't go much lower than $15,000). The next halving is expected to be around april 2024. After that we can expect the next bull run to begin. Where the peak will be is anyone's guess, but I think it will be somewhere between $100,000 and $500,000. It wouldn't surprise me if it turns out to be $420,000 just for the meme.Comment: So far, so good.Comment: It's 100 days later, and the price is doing pretty much the same thing as it did in 2019. 2019 went way higher than 2015, maybe 2023 will go way higher than 2019?Comment: The weekly just closed above the 0.618 fibonacci. In the last two cycles it went straight to 0.786 after closing above 0.618, which is around $50,000. There's a good chance we see a 30-40% pullback from these levels, which would be between $25-35,000.Comment: With all the ETF-stuff happening this week and the price getting closer to the 0.786 ($50,000), it seems like the perfect time for a local top and a massive pullback. I think lower 30's is a reasonable target. The price will probably wick above $50,000 first though.

Bitcoin: Potential 2025 targets Here you can see the similarities between the last three halving cycles and compare them to the current fourth one. The blue zones represent when the price has broken the 0.382 fib after a bear market roughly one year before the halving. The price never broke the 0.786 fib before the halving, so I don’t expect the price to go above $50,000 until at least few months after the halving in 2024. The green zones represent the time from the halving to the peak. The price reached the 1.618 fib in each of the previous cycles (and got a massive rejection). This cycle the 1.618 fib is at $174,000. The orange zones represent blow-off tops. In the first two cycles the price kept going all the way to the 2.272 fib. In the last cycle it didn’t happen (but it was still a very bullish phase). This cycle the 2.272 fib is at $462,000. I have copied the price action of the last three cycles and adjusted them to the current fib levels to get a visualization of what we can expect after the next halving. I don’t know what will happen before the next halving, but I expect the price to range between $20,000 and $50,000. Main target for 2025 is just under $200,000. And maybe we’ll see $420,690 just for the meme.

In one of my previous ideas I said that bitcoin would bottom out in the low 20's: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/KzwFMLXe-Bitcoin-likely-to-bottom-out-at-the-end-of-2022/Given what the economy is looking like these days I think it's extremely likely that bitcoin goes to the low teens, and maybe even below 10,000 USD. I put on some bars patterns from past cycles to visualize it, and I have pointed out when the past halvings occured in relation to the price action. I also copied the bars pattern from Nasdaq during the dot-com bubble to visualize what that would look like. The bottom would be around the next halving. Based on past history and different price models, I think it's realistic that bitcoin goes to 250,000 USD (and maybe 1,000,000 USD in an extreme blow-off scenario) in 2025. This also means that in almost two years the price will still only hover around 30,000. We basically have 18-24 months to scrape together as much bitcoin as possible, before the next bull run.Bitcoin is doing pretty much exactly what it has done in the past, and unless it blasts through the lower blue channel, I wouldn't worry.

I think bitcoin will bottom out somewhere around 25k in Q3 or Q4 in 2022, and then range between the highs and lows for another 18 months. The next halving is expected to be around march of 2024, and the bull runs naturally happens a few months after that.Bitcoin just got down to 20800. It might go lower due to the macro outlook, but I don't think it's a bad idea to start buying some here.It failed for a few months there, because of FTX. Let's see if this resistance will turn into support.Looks like resistance turned into support.Right on track again.A pullback here would make sense.I predicted this pullback two years ago.We might re-test 48-52k area if we don't hold 57k, but I'm quite bullish for the next 9-15 months.We got down to 49k, now back at 63k. As soon as this breaks 72k it will probably go parabolic.It broke 72k last week, and is now at 93k.

Price action has acted alot like it did before the run up last year. This fractal suggests the price of bitcoin to be $420,000 next summer.

It's a great buying opportunity. We're going up, then sideways and down, then up again.