FX-Diaries

PEPE against ETH is nearing a nice support level, I will buy PEPE here and sell it at the tops against ETH to gain more ETH

Ondo-ETH is nearing a nice clean support level. I will buy ondo here and sell it at the top against ETH

ETH made a beautiful bullrun from the trendline. Now most people will be convinced we will break the 4K level and so straight up. I'm not convinced, and that is because the last bullist candles are too extended. It's highly unlikely it will go straight up to + 4k from here. Second we are in a massive triangle that has to play out first. So what I believe will happen in the next months is that ETH will pullback to 2500 or even lower 1700. Allot of buyers that FOMO in now will be trapped and panic sell. Then end on the year when QE has done and there is enough fuel to break out of the triangle. It will happen fast maybe arround nov / dec. So don't fomo in wait

Same same but different, last week on ETH we had a simmilar situation in the weekend a huge liquidation spike. Looking at the bitcoin chart it looks it wants to fall and does the same.So I expect the whales will drop the price in a same liquidation spike as ETH last weekend. When? I dunno can this weekend but not too long.The BTC price will drop to the demand zone at 87k level. That's the most logical level the price will find support.The positive thing is when the price holds at 87k with a pinbar and bought up again.You can be 99% sure the price will go up in the upcoming months and we see an alt season.If the price falls down to 70k then it will take a lot longer to recover.So best thing is you can place a limit order at the 87k area. Or just wait when the capitalization is over.

Ok Ethereum fell out of the wedge and went down heavy. Didn't expected that got liquidated heavy. But in hindsight was expecting something but you never know when and how. Now making a new technical analysis, I see ETH doing this:I zoomed out on the weekly TF on the logaritmic chart,and there you can clearly see a new bigger wedge.- There is a tripple top with higher highs- The last pinbar pierced slightly out of the wedge and liquidated allooot of people. I can see ETH can test the trendline and fall slightly out maybe 2K max. But technically ETH has to breakout to the upside now,In a couple of weeks ETH is heavy up. I think people wait for the FED decision in march for QE. But I ladder in already in the chart already tells you actually ETH is going up.

In the morning I saw the red candles and thought ok we broke out of the wedge, that means a longer term consollidation before the bullish breakout. But now the daily candle almost close and you see the buyers pushed the price back into the wedge pattern. So from a technical standpoint the wedge is still intact and that is super super bullish.The reason why that is a super bullish sign is that today the bears had a chance to break the wedge structure but there was not enough selling pressure to do that. A wedge pattern falling down like this almost always breakout to the upside. The wedge pattern is the right shoulder of a bigger inverse head and shoulders pattern, if you zoom out you can see it on the daily. So price is respecting the chart very good sign. Off course tomorrow they can try to drop the price again lower out of the wedge but I doubt it because you see the price is already bought up again. So fundamentally the only thing that we need is wednesday a positive FOMC meeting. And we go moon.I cannot see anything that is holding us back now.we are still in the Wedge so I'm super bullish

When you are in the markets for a longer time you can see the mistakes people make over and over again. To break it down: So Trump tweeted his meme coin and now Solana is pumping and ETH is dropping. So people invested in ETH are getting unsure because look at the strong green candles of SOL and ETH looks like it's sliding away. So now people are chasing SOL and suddenly ETH is nothing worth anymore. Well that's the receipe to get REKT and loose it all. Fundamentally how can ETH be worth nothing? They have +20 year experience and grow organically to the level it's now. ETH is integrated with almost all platforms. ETH is always the leading altcoin to start altseason is will now also. Technically just because ETH is making some red candles doesn't mean it's a weak coin.Actually the opposite, while SOL is pumping just because of a hype that's never good and will fallback to the real price. ETH is consolidating in a nice wedge and will breakout heavy in the coming weeks. Then altseason is started don't miss the boat.

If you missed the current pump don't FOMO in because you will get trapped again.Wait for the price enter the supply zone indicated in blue. Then they will drop the price again that's actually a good entry also. And then the price will go bullish to the next level. The reason it's highly likely they will drop the price again is that whales know that people FOMO into the trade now at the worst point.When they drop the price again you litterly handing the money over to them because you will panic sell thinking the market will go bearish. First missed the first pump and second entry is a FOMO entry so the entry is not a confident and strong entry. That's why if some volatility happens you cannot handle it emotionally to stay in. What's actually not true and the market will go bullish from here!

I am super bullish on Bitcoin but also take a realistic view at the technical charts and fundamentals.First to look at the fundamentals people are still too bullish the market sentiment is not switched to bearish and panic. That's not a good sign to move up.The fear and greed index is still on greed, so people are not afraid to loose. There has at lease to be a reset in the sentiment and I don't see that happen soon.Everybody is hoping with Trumps inauguration the market will go up. But I believe nothing will happen. The market will consolidate for a couple of months.Q1 2025 price will not go up that will create the real fear and doubt that's needed. Because people expect the price will go up in Q1 and that doesn't happen.People are going to get exhausted because it's taking too long, panic sell, ect. All this will create a bull flag between 107k and 91k the bull flag will take till may - june.From that point the price will move up. Looking at the technicals:From the last bull flag till now BTC moved 60% up. Looking at the current candles it's doesn't look organic that the price move another 60% within this month. The price has to consolidate to get the fuel to move another 50% to maybe 150K. It looks so strange technically that BTC will make another bull move from here.I don't see that happen soon.So off course I'm invested already because I was hoping that the price would move up straight away. But I will exit all my positions for BE. And wait for a better entry. Because price will test the demand zone at 87K for sure before moving up.

While BTC nees to test the demand zone with ETH it's a little different. ETH tends to make a double pinbar on the 200 MA, combined with that the demand zone is also pierced.So arround 2800$ and then we will move up again