FOREXcom

Over the last three trading sessions, BTC has shown a variation of just under 2% — a relatively modest move compared to the cryptocurrency’s usual volatility. This reflects that confidence in the crypto market remains in neutral territory in the short term. Investors are focused on upcoming U.S. inflation data, which could directly influence the Federal Reserve’s decisions regarding the broader economy. In this environment, Bitcoin appears to be in a wait-and-see phase, holding steady while awaiting a fundamental catalyst that could trigger consistent directional moves. For now, neutrality dominates as the market looks ahead to this week’s macroeconomic releases. Renewed Sideways Action The absence of significant price swings in recent sessions has started to shape a short-term sideways range, with resistance near $113,000 per BTC and support around $106,000. Recent fluctuations have not been strong enough to break this formation, making it the most important technical structure to watch in the near term. As long as this lateral range holds, Bitcoin is likely to remain neutral without showing clear breakout signals. Technical Indicators RSI: The RSI line is edging closer to the neutral 50 level, signaling an equilibrium between bullish and bearish impulses. This reinforces the prevailing neutral stance in the short term. MACD: A similar scenario is visible in the MACD, with the histogram hovering near the 0 line. This suggests that the strength of short-term moving averages is balanced, further highlighting the lack of clear market direction. Key Levels to Watch: $122,000 – Historical Resistance: This marks the all-time high area. A sustained break above this level could reignite a broader bullish trend that currently remains on hold. $113,000 – Nearby Barrier: Represents the upper band of the current sideways range. As long as the price continues to trade near this level, market neutrality will likely remain the dominant theme. $106,000 – Key Support: Corresponds to Bitcoin’s recent lows. A breakdown below this area could signal a more relevant bearish bias and open the way for a potential short-term downtrend. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst

Gold is breaking uptrend resistance today with price stretching to fresh record highs. An embedded channel highlights the next technical hurdle at the 300% extension of the 2011 decline at 3666- risk for topside exhaustion / price inflection into this threshold IF reached. Initial support now rests back at 3600 with near-term bullish invalidation raised to 3578- losses should be limited to this threshold IF price is heading higher on this stretch. A topside breach / daily close above channel resistance exposes the 1.618% extension of the May advance at 3782. -MB

Gold has finally broken free from its months-long consolidation, and the chart signals a decisive bullish breakout. Price had been coiling within a contracting triangle pattern since April, capped by resistance around $3,430. Last week’s strong move above that ceiling, followed by accelerating momentum, confirms buyers are back in control. The 50-day SMA is turning higher, reinforcing near-term bullish sentiment, while the 200-day SMA remains well below current price action, highlighting the strength of the broader uptrend. Momentum indicators are supportive: the MACD has crossed bullishly above its signal line, and the RSI has surged into overbought territory (77+), reflecting strong demand but also hinting at possible short-term consolidation after such a sharp rally. Going forward, as long as gold holds above the former breakout zone near $3,430, the bias remains bullish. Traders will watch closely to see if momentum carries price toward fresh highs, while any pullback toward support could provide a retest opportunity. Gold’s technical picture has shifted decisively—this breakout marks a potential continuation of the broader uptrend. -MW

Having completed something resembling a three-candle morning star reversal pattern, clearing downtrend resistance running from the record highs struck last month in the process, some upside may be on the way for bitcoin. With RSI (14) breaking its downtrend and MACD starting to curl higher towards the signal line, there’s early evidence bearish momentum may be turning. That said, long setups still screen as going somewhat against the prevailing grain, so patience may pay when assessing bullish trades. If BTC/USD breaks and closes above $112,000, longs could be established with a tight stop beneath for protection. The last attempted break ended in misery for longs, so risk management should be front and centre, including what to do with the stop if the price initially moves in your favour. The August 28 high around $113,500 and the 50-day moving average both screen as potential targets, depending on desired risk-reward. If the latter were to be breached successfully, the probability of a run towards $117,000 resistance—where price struggled in the second half of August—would improve. If the price cannot push and close above $112,000, the bullish setup is invalidated. Good luck! DS

Last year saw only two days with gold closing below the $2k level, and the way that happened was informative, and that continues to carry weight with the metal hitting a fresh all-time-high this morning. Gold initially rallied up to $2k in the aftermath of Covid stimulus coming online in 2020. Interestingly, that high was hit in August, when Bitcoin was still struggling to get back-above the $12k level. But, in gold, it was as if investors were already looking around the next corner, at the inflation that would jump in 2021 and the rate hikes that would be necessary in 2022. For three and a half years, gold held resistance around that 2k level, through the Fed's rate hike campaign and until, eventually, markets began to expect softening from the FOMC. But the way this priced-in last year was tricky, as inflation remained high earlier in the year and with the CPI print in February, it started to look like the Fed wouldn't be able to cut rates. That CPI print dropped on February 13th, and that was the first day that gold closed below $2k. But it was a day later, on valentines day, that Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee implored markets not to get 'flipped out' about a single inflation print, and that's when matters really began to shift. Deductively, this shows a FOMC that seemed willing to ignore data that didn't fit their rate cut case while focusing on evidence that did. In gold, prices climbed above $2k the day after and they didn't look back, rallying by more than 75% from that February low up to the high in April of this year. Along the way there was but one brief reprieve, and interestingly, this happened alongside another Bitcoin breakout. This was the final couple months of 2024, when gold prices built a symmetrical triangle, which makes for a bull pennant formation when taken with the prior trend. As gold digested, Bitcoin broke out, but as Bitcoin calmed earlier in the year, gold again broke out and this time, the $3K level was taken-out and left behind. As the Fed has shifted into a dovish pattern again, even with inflation near 3% from Core PCE and above 3% via Core CPI, gold has again broken out from a bull pennant formation that's been brewing for the past four months. As of this writing, gold is trading at a fresh ATH and above the $3500 level, which makes a difficult case for chasing. But - given prior price structure, there are a few different notable spots of support potential to work with pullbacks. The $3451 level is an obvious point, as a prior swing-high, but it's the $3435 level below that that was resistance three different times until the more recent breakout. To date, that price still hasn't been tested for support since the bullish run. Below that, $3400 is also of interest. - js

Gold broke through key resistance last week at the former record high / June high at 3432/51 with XAU/USD rallying to fresh record highs today. Price is poised to mark a sixth-consecutive daily advance with gold now trading just below uptrend resistance. Initial support rests with the median-line (blue- currently near ~3470) and is backed again by 3432/51- losses should be limited to this threshold IF price is heading higher on this stretch. Broader bullish invalidation rests with the April high-day close (HDC) at 3381. Initial lateral resistance is eyed at the 1.618% extension of the late-July advance at 3540 and is backed by the 100% extension of the broader May rally at 3578- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. -MB

Gold is approaching breakout confirmation toward new all-time highs, with daily RSI signaling overbought conditions. However, price action remains near a critical resistance zone needing further confirmation for a breakout; and, in times of heightened uncertainty, momentum indicators rarely constrain gold’s bullish potential. •A clean hold above 3500 and 3,540 would confirm further upside toward 3,780 — the projected height of the 5-month consolidation — and potentially $4,000. •On the downside, pullback risks may find support at 3,430, 3,410, and 3,360 before threatening a deeper reversal toward 3,260 or lower. Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

As gold's price action continues to narrow within a 5-month consolidation, traders await confirmation of whether the formation represents an inverted head and shoulders pattern with an extended right shoulder, or a triangle consolidation—keeping markets on edge for a breakout signal. The 3450–3500 zone stands as a critical resistance barrier. A confirmed breakout above it could lead gold prices to extend toward 3780–3800 (equal to the height of the pattern), and ultimately test the 4,000 checkpoint—the target of a long-term monthly cup and handle pattern. On the downside, key supports lie at 3320 and 3280. A clear break below these levels could confirm a steep bearish breakout toward 3130 and 2900, which may, in turn, set the stage for long-term bullish opportunities back toward the 4,000 level. — Razan Hilal, CMT

Gold has been consolidating within a broad range for several weeks. This type of price action often precedes a breakout in the direction of the prevailing trend i.e., to the upside. That said, confirmation is still needed. For me, that would come with a daily close above the bearish trend line that has capped prices since April’s peak. Should this occur—and ideally hold above the $3,400 level—it could open the door for a potential move to retest April’s all-time high near $3,500. On the downside, initial support lies at $3,370 which was being tested at the time of writing, followed by $3,350. A break below this level would expose the next key support at $3,300, followed by the June low at $3,247. Overall, the outlook for gold remains cautiously bullish, with political risks and ongoing Fed-related pressures holding the dollar back, even though the greenback has come back a bit in the last couple of days thanks to stronger US data. With a busy U.S. data calendar towards the second half of the week, and growing speculation around Fed leadership, volatility is likely in the near term. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com

The last few trading sessions have been particularly challenging for Bitcoin’s bullish momentum in the short term, mainly because two sessions ago the price dropped by more than 6%. This pullback was driven by profit-taking, following Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole, which had sparked a brief surge in confidence toward the end of last week. However, the current scenario is different: after this sharp drop, a highly neutral sentiment has emerged on the chart, as the market continues to assess how a lower interest rate environment could impact Bitcoin demand in the coming weeks. For now, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in neutral territory, standing at 43 points, right on the threshold where a new “fear” phase could start to develop in the sentiment indicator. As long as uncertainty persists in the short term, it is likely that neutrality will continue to dominate movements in the sessions ahead. A Significant Bearish Move Emerges Bitcoin’s price had managed to sustain an uptrend from early April until mid-August. However, at that point a relevant bearish bias began to surface, consistently breaking through the prevailing uptrend line and putting at risk the bullish momentum that had supported the chart. Now, the predominance of selling pressure in the short term raises the risk of triggering a move that could give way to a more consistent downtrend in the coming sessions. RSI: the RSI line has slipped slightly below the neutral 50 level, reflecting that selling momentum has started to dominate in the short term. If this pattern persists, bearish pressure could intensify in the upcoming sessions. MACD: the MACD histogram also shows a bearish bias, as it remains below the 0 line. This indicates that the average of recent moving averages has shifted into negative territory, reinforcing the outlook for the continuation of the current correction. Key Levels to Watch: $122,000 – Historical High Zone: the main barrier for bullish moves. A sustained return to this level could reactivate the uptrend line that has recently been broken. $113,000 – Immediate Resistance: corresponds to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and acts as the nearest barrier in the short term. A breakout above this level would end the current bearish bias and could pave the way for a more neutral scenario. $106,000 – Definitive Support: aligns with the 100-period moving average. A break below this level would imply a deeper change in market structure, opening the door to a more solid bearish trend in the short term. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst