FOREXcom

I think it is fair to say that the $4K level is super important in as far as gold’s short-term direction is concerned. A potential breakdown below $3930 would signal gold has decided to stay below this $4K level. The $3930 level is where gold found support from earlier this week, so a break below it would now be quite significant from a technical standpoint. On the upside, $4045 is where gold needs to climb above to trigger technical selling above it. This was the high from last Friday. While gold decides which direction to break, I don’t have too strong a view on the metal currently. Granted, the fresh weakening of the US dollar amid signs of weakness in labour market as reported by Challenger yesterday, and the drop in consumer confidence as reported by the UoM today, both point to potential gains for gold. However, the metal has been trending in the same direction as equity markets. Therein lies the problem. With stocks struggling, gold has been unable to find any fresh haven demand to give it a lift above $4K. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com

Bitcoin has come under renewed selling pressure, sliding sharply toward the key $100,000 psychological and structural support area. The price has now broken below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and is testing the 200-day SMA, signaling a significant test of trend integrity after months of consolidation between $100,000 and $123,000. The 50-day SMA has turned lower, reflecting weakening medium-term momentum, while the 200-day SMA remains upward-sloping, maintaining the broader bullish framework. A daily close below the $100,000 support would represent a potential shift in long-term sentiment, whereas a rebound from this zone could keep Bitcoin within its established range. Momentum indicators underscore the recent downside pressure: the MACD remains below its signal line, extending its bearish crossover, and the RSI has slipped to around 35, approaching oversold conditions last seen during earlier correction phases. Overall, Bitcoin is at a pivotal juncture — the $100K region serves as both a technical and psychological inflection point that may determine whether the broader uptrend can reassert itself or give way to deeper consolidation. -MW

Meta’s stock dropped more than 10.5% during the last trading session, shortly after the company released its third-quarter results. Selling pressure has become dominant despite Meta reporting $51.24 billion in revenue, surpassing expectations of $49.40 billion, and earnings per share of $7.25, beating forecasts of $6.69. However, it was revealed that the company incurred an extraordinary charge of approximately $16 billion, linked to a new U.S. tax regulation, which — if it hadn’t occurred — would have allowed for much higher reported earnings. This factor, combined with the massive spending on its artificial intelligence initiatives, could begin to erode profit margins in the coming months. As a result, a persistent sense of investor distrust has emerged, which could continue to place downward pressure on the stock in the near term. Uptrend Breaks Following the earnings release, the stock broke below the upward trendline that had been in place since April of this year, potentially marking a structural shift on the chart, with a bearish bias now becoming dominant after the sharp decline. As long as the price remains below the 200-period moving average, selling pressure could stabilize and even lead to the formation of a new short-term downtrend. RSI The RSI line has started to show a steady downward slope, indicating that selling momentum has taken control over the past 14 sessions. However, the indicator is quickly approaching the oversold zone near the 30 level, suggesting a potential market imbalance that could open the door for short-term bullish corrections. MACD The MACD histogram has flattened around the zero line, signaling indecision in momentum based on the moving averages. If this condition persists, the stock could enter a sideways consolidation phase in the coming sessions. Key Levels to Watch: $740 – Resistance: This level aligns with the 50-period simple moving average. A move back toward this zone could reactivate the previous uptrend, which has now taken a back seat following the sell-off. $689 – Current Barrier: This retracement zone coincides with the 200-period moving average and could serve as a neutral area, potentially triggering short-term corrections. However, as long as the price remains below this level, a sustained bearish bias may continue in the coming sessions. $631 – Key Support: This level represents an area of indecision not seen since May of this year. A break below it could activate a fresh downtrend, likely to persist over the medium term. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst

Gold prices are retreating from record highs with a decline of more than 11.3% now testing a major pivot zone at the 38.2% retracement of the August advance at 3973- looking for a reaction off this mark with a break / close below needed to suggest a more significant high is in place / a larger correction is underway. Subsequent support objectives rest with the 50% retracement / October open at 3846/59 with broader bullish invalidation steady at 3700/20. Initial resistance remains with the 10/21 reversal close at 4125 with a breach / close above 4251 needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend. Keep in mind this is a massive week for event risk with the FOMC, BoC, ECB, and the BoJ interest rate decisions on tap as the government shutdown extends into the fourth week. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly close here for guidance. -MB

It is all about risk appetite right now driving Bitcoin prices. The rally in BTCUSD in the last few days has has coincided with renewed optimism surrounding trade negotiations between the United States and China. This is also why gold has fallen below $4K today and the S&P 500 has reached fresh record highs. Trump struck an optimistic tone, telling reporters he “really feels good” about a deal, with reports suggesting that China could resume soybean purchases and ease restrictions on rare-earth exports. In return, Washington may scale back its recent tariff threats. Anyway, it is risk on and BTC is holding firm right now, with the crypto also creating a bullish reversal after it refused to hold below prior low at 107250 and the 200-day average a couple of weeks ago (see circled). That fake out has subsequently pushed BTCUSD back above 110K, 112K and now 115K. Key support is now 112K where the breakout from yesterday commenced and where the 21-day exponential converges. Next upside resistance levels to watch include 116K, which was being tested at the time of writing, followed by 120K, which is a more significant level to watch. For now, the path of least resistance is to the upside, even if we see a return to 112K support. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com

Gold is approaching a potentially important moment that could either reinforce the bullish trend or set the stage for a corrective move lower, pushing back towards the intersection of long-running uptrend support and minor horizontal support at $4060. Twice last week, the price tested this support zone only to bounce strongly, including last Friday when a hammer candle printed on the daily chart. That only reinforces its importance. However, with a three-candle evening star forming if Monday’s candle finishes near current levels, and with RSI (14) and MACD pointing to rapidly diminishing upside strength, directional risks are shifting quickly lower. A break beneath the uptrend, especially on a close, may signal gold has begun a new trend, putting downside levels in play. If a bearish break occurs, traders could sell with a tight stop above the uptrend to protect against reversal, targeting the psychologically important $4000 level initially. If that gives way, $3950 and $3895 are other nearby support levels, providing multiple target options depending on desired risk/reward. Alternatively, if the support zone continues to hold, the setup could be flipped with longs established above the trendline and a stop below for protection. $4100 has seen some action recently over shorter timeframes, as have $4155 and $4180. All screen as possible targets. Good luck! DS

ETH/USD is clinging to uptrend support, providing a level that can be used to build setups around. The first thing that stands out is the inability for the price to bounce meaningfully, differentiating it from last week, at least so far. Secondly, prior to Wednesday’s bearish candle, there was a string of dojis, indicating that while the recent price action has been bearish, there’s still plenty of indecision out there as to whether the move will extend. As things stand, momentum signals favour downside with RSI (14) and MACD shifting from neutral to bearish territory. However, marginal bullish divergence between RSI (14) and price provides an early warning signal that downside pressure may be in the process of bottoming. As such, while selling rallies and downside breaks is preferred, until one of those eventuates, there’s still opportunity to look for short-term countertrend trades. If we see a definitive break of the April uptrend and push below the October 17 low beneath $3700, shorts could be established with a stop above either level to protect against reversal. $3500 and $2930 screen as two potential targets. However, if the trendline continues to be defended successfully, longs could be established with a stop beneath either today’s or the October 17 low for protection. $4100 or the 50-day moving average loom as possible targets. Good luck! DS

The volatility in gold continues. The metal fell a further 2.6% to close in on $4,000, extending drop from Monday's all-time high to over 8% amid profit-taking and dollar strength. It had staged a decent bounce yesterday but that turned out to be a dead-cat. Anyway the area between around 4000 to 4022 is where the trend line, round 4K handle and 21 day exponential all converge. Needs to hold to keep bulls interested in dip buying. Below 3944, the most recent low prior to the breakout above 4K, things will turn bearish. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com

This week’s rally marks the largest single-week range on record and the ninth consecutive weekly advance— the first such streak since August 2020, when the yearly high was registered. Weekly momentum has also surged to its highest level since April 2006, which likewise coincided with that year’s peak in gold. These technical observations suggest that while the broader outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable at these levels. Initial weekly support rests along the median-line, currently near the 4000 mark and a break / weekly close below this slope would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place / a larger correction is underway. Monthly-open support rests at 3859 with broader bullish invalidation now raise to the 61.8% extension of the May advance at 3782. Weekly resistance is eyed with the upper parallel / 2.618% extension of the 2015 advance at 4308- a topside breach / weekly close above this threshold would threaten another bout of accelerated gains with the next major technical considerations eyed at the 3.618% extension of the April decline at 4492 and the 1.618% extension of yearly advance at 4553. Bottom line: The gold breakout extended into record highs this week with multi-year extremes registered in momentum, range, and duration- the exhaustion risk is mounting. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 4000 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a weekly close above 4308 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance. -MB

Gold finally succumbed to profit-taking pressure today as it sold off nearly $180 from its intraday record high of $4380, representing a sizeable drop. Hardly a surprise to be fair, with the market being so severely overbought. Potentially it is not the end of the trend, but a large bearish engulfing candle at the peak here does point to at least a temp top, which wouldnt be a bad thing. Anyway, the metal has rolled over and the metal was now trading near $4200, on track for its worst day in a LONG time. Let's see how it closes the session, but i wouldn't be surprised if it were to head back down to $4K in the week ahead, before potentially consolidating. By Fawad Razaqzda, market analyst with FOREX.com