EyyJasper

I can have all my opinions about how this low can't be the HTF HL but who am I to say this? I should keep it in the back of my mind but I shouldn't let it hinder me from entering new trades/investments.I spent too much time speculating on how I think it should look instead of just keeping it simple and just think about how it looks in the moment. It cost me missing the up-move from ~85k-100k.I think of trading vs investing, LTF trades vs HTF trend while I should just scrap the HTF trend as this causes me to go on a speculation trip and I lose track of what's in front of me in the moment.-------------------------------What I think is in front of me right now:Let's start with that MS is king. This up-move is caused by the fact that price got above the structure of 29 March-5 April, without any significant PA. It just got above it and stayed above it and pushed out above it.That's enough evidence to me that I shouldn't necessarily wait for a big SFP, on the 15min TF or 1D. Or that I shouldn't wait for a big 15min engulfing candle. This is just proof as price has pushed all the way back to 100k. Then,The blue box was the resistance and the level below it (95k spike) was the main level. The top of this level was maximal resistance. Here I expected (=speculated) that price would be capped and go back to 74k. I expected price to close above the level but that the new structure formed around the level would provide a short (like a SFP and then a MSB).But this didn't happen. Price pushed above the resistance. So that's how it now is: there's no resistance. Just like in april when price got above the 29 March-5 April structure with main level of structure being the high of 4 April.And then to add: in current structure price has closed above the main level of that structure on the 1D: the high of 12 May. This is good. Also: there's no 15min SFP at the current highs and the MSB failed (price pushed back up).Also: there's a clean level for the long SFP: 12 May low. Conclusion: if price breaks down from here without going back to these highs, price could be capped at the long SFP-level of 100k. And given the (I think) fact that there's no resistance and MS is king, this is the right level to enter the long in spot BTC.So that's what I'm going to do. Might enter the trade too (perps) if price indeed SFP's this level.-----------------------------If price doesn't hold the 100k level, I don't think price can drop further than the 74k low so that's the potential downside (I don't sell spot if there's no short setup) I keep in mind.Price made a new ATH but all PA looks normal to me, just consolidating upwards. Still have my limit orders set.Not the best reaction to the level tbh. 1D candle close above would be welcome.

I don't think there's much to say here. This is a MSB, even though there's little structure.As there's no structure for resistance the last HL wick just becomes the entry (for the LH).If price manages to get decently above this entry, I'll cut it and take the loss. Most structure has been formed here at the lows, so if price manages to get decently above my entry, it also gets above this structure, thus providing support which could make price jump up pretty quick as there's been little structure formed on the downmove.Full 1R entry with SL red dashed line.Closed for -0.13R

Price closed below the support-level on the 1D (red line) ----> price should come back to these lows.Price closed above the resistance-level on the 1D (green line) ----> price should SFP the lows-----------------------------------------I expect (or should I say: hope?) price to do a MSB here, meaning: price coming below all that structure below the green level. This will provide a short setup to the dashed line where the TP and spot limit buy orders are 'rested'.To be one of the best in trading BTC.

BTC Possible HTF Creation 3Inversed chart again... (to minimise full breakdown to 48k fear which messes with my analysis).Price did a MSB which definitely weakens this downtrend (yellow). But what happens now?-------------------------Three possibilities:1Price gets capped here at outstanding 95k level and goes back to 74k level, breaks through it and goes to 48k. This now definitely is a irrational thought as price messed the downtrend up by doing this MSB. Beforehand this might have been also irrational as the big 70k is a closed structure because of the pump through it (this change in PA + followed up up-move makes this a confirmed closed structure; however this is still speculation: needs more sample). Like, if price just kept on downtrending through the inefficiency, then I could see the mega breakdown to 48k happening but now... no.2Price makes a HL instead of going back to 74k level. I don't see this happening as changes in trend usually start with some sort of significant PA at the lows/highs which we IMO didn't get here. I don't think the MSB is enough as the downtrend got initiated with an SFP (strong) and price has yet to deal with the 95k level which IMO is just a really big level if you look at it LTF (though definitely less outstanding as this isn't the last LH anymore. That's the one which now has been broken with the MSB). Just LTF looking at the lowest low it just doesn't make sense to me: nothing significant happened at the lows. The way price went back down and then made a HL instead of an SFP while IMO there was no reason for the HL just doesn't make sense. The 'base' for the higher TF MSB (yellow) is imo weak.3.Price SFP's the lowest low 74k level on the 1D (and even better on the 15min). Why SFP? Well, higher TF moves often just start with an SFP. Either SFP or deviation and I don't see a deviation happening as I think the downmove to 74k would just be weak as there's already the MSB. Weak so no stength to get below the level so simple SFP is what you get. This 'pattern' happens often: downtrend ----> sudden MSB but unexpected as insignificant PA at lows, thus unjustified MSB -----> price gets back to lowest low and creates significant PA (SFP) -----> now the real uptrend starts with a justified bottom.Oct-Dec 2022: SFP within deviationMarch 2023: deviationAugust 2023: deviationJanuary 2024: deviationAugust 2024: SFP

BTC Short setup. Not much to say. 15min Engulfing candle for the LH. Invalidation = SL = 1R. Entry = entering ASAP after two 15min downcandles after another below level (so not a specific level)Hopefully I'm right, would be great R:R as the TP is the lowest low around 74k and I don't want to lose 1R.SL changed to top of 16:00-16:15 15min candle. (reducing potential R loss as imo price shouldn't come back up this high anymore after first downmove).No. Leaving the SL as original SL. Might get a retest of the level. If it is a valid setup the wick of an engulfing candle shouldn't get wicked again. Price dropped back in consolidation PA instead of inefficiency so another HH isn't to be expected I think.Closed after 2nd push back up. Engulfing candle definitely not enough it seems like. will update on -r loss.-0.26R.My thought process is/was: There's an SFP at the highest high so we don't need to go back to these highs, therefore I should keep in mind the possible LH (via a LH level) which I thought we got here with the level + 15min engulfing candle.But the correct thought process is: has this SFP from the highest high (so the first SFP of tuesday) broken market structure? Yes ----> you can look for the LH, no ----> you shouldn't look for the LH, price will likely go back to this SFP highest high.

BTC Possible HTF Creation 2 (update from first post): Chart inverted; analysis below as if it weren't an inverted chart:1) Weak highs as there isn't an SFP or some kind of big wick candle;2) Price did break below a significant part of the HL structure but not the full structure (last HL hasn't been broken):- The part it broke down below isn't outstanding enough to produce a big breakdown (my intuition tells me). It isn't a MSB as the last HL is still intact and the structure it did break below I think can't produce a big downmove (which then would create a MSB if it happened but I think would be weak and shortlived, likely to be capped at that outstanding low at 95k).- Price didn't instantly break below structure, it first made a LH (April 10) which weakens the downmove significantly to where my intuition tells me there now can't be a full MSB being formed.------------------------------No significance at highs (no SFP) nor big previous high being hit so no reason for trend shift.Price did break some significant structure but not fully and not fast enough: it first produced a LH before breaking below it. that's key here: if it was a breakdown in one go then price would have broken below the structure very close to the structure making the structure way stronger in resistance and therefore the likelyhood of a real breakdown way higher. That price is consolidating now (so not going fast anymore) is fine: horizontality creates space for a move in either way. But the fact that price didn't break below the structure in one go is the important part which I think cancels out the breakdown.Just looking at it simply, pure intuition. This will never break down as that structure which it broke down below isn't outstanding enough and there is not enough verticality (no strength). I would never short this.---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------And now coming out of the inverted chart: If I would never short this this means I would never buy this at 82k.But the HTF HL, I want to say it as an ego thing: will higly likely be an SFP of the Monday April 7 lowest low and I have put my 100% allocation on it (might take out some to buy the ETH lowest low of June 2022 as these moves would probably go together and ETH is the better investment if you want to make bigger profits)This ego thing is a traders' mistake as you can never be 100% sure in trading so you should never put a limit order on a level in advance, but I'm a young guy and me buying the lowest low of the HTF HL with great potential I could be right is a risk I'm willing to take as the benefit of me being right (having THAT amount of conviction with serious high level analysis backing that conviction) would just prove to me that I'm one of the best in the world in trading BTC, and this mental benefit will flow into daily ordinary life as I would then have proof of this 'status' (forgive me people, I know better but I'm still young and I know having this ego thing now will create a laugh + will make me happy in the future) + gives me more rest to focus on my studies.I accept the traders' mistake as this is a HTF HL environment, not an ordinary area in between.

We are however still in a downtrend and current area is the place for the new LH.We already have the SFP at the highs (thus, good for the LH formation) but this hasn't provided any downward move + MSB isn't possible anymore as it has taken too long. We could get a LH SFP though which I think will still create the downmove.The question I ask myself now: what if we don't get the LH SFP and go down first? This would then create the HTF HL I think, as price has no resistance but still breaks down + there's no short setup to be found.But: will it go back to the lowest low of 74k or will it stay above the blue line structure and form the low around 82k? If the lowest low was an SFP price wouldn't go back to the lowest low but now I don't know: big horizontality makes past structure weaker to where price can easily go through it but at the same time if there's no reason to break down why would it break down in such a big way (from 84k to 74k instead of 84k-82k)?For now I have spot limit orders set on 82.7k level but I'm still contemplating on what the correct decision is.It's hard to tell if btc could drop down all the way to 74k without a LH SFP. Looking at it LTF (15min zoomed in) I think: no this can't happen, no SFP at highs and only consolidation to the left -----> no SFP = weak, no MSB = weak, consolidation = strong ------> impossible.But on the other hand I'm thinking: yes but it's supposed to be the HTF HL and current lowest low is wack, would the surprise breakdown to 74k not just be the hint that price will SFP the 74k lowest low and then the lows will be in? (text below is inverted chart perspective)And what about the downtrend: INVERT the chart and I would say: yes the downtrend has weakened as price broke below the structure, but is this strong enough to suddenly just break through it all? Simply looking at it: I don't find the structure which it broke down under to be THAT outstanding and another HL here would just be the expected move BUT I don't think price will breakout further as it now did break below that structure which has definitely weakened the uptrend. Also price has now been seriously consolidating making space (due to this horizontality which makes structure of downmove weaker of resistance) for a fast upmove to the highest high.Yes, the 30min zoomed out inverted is king: all the way zoomed in on the 15min you lose track of the bigger picture and the bigger picture you get by looking at the 30min zoomed out.I should make use of the inverted chart more often as I'm way better in reading short PA then long PA.Spot buys at 82k cancelled and moved to lowest low 74k for the time being (at the least waiting for what will happen LTF: LH SFP or not?)

Invalidation = 15min candle close above level (black upper line)Entry = hoping that the 15min candle spikes this dashed black line at 84k but still closes below the levelI can't put limit orders on the level because SL and invalidation are so close that the invalidation would cause a -R too big. That's why I hope for price to shoot above the level, hit my entry but still close below it, and if price would close above the level, thus invalidating the trade, my higher entry can make up for this.--------------------------Red dashed line = SLBlack dashed line = entryTP = 76k.5-ish level (black dashed line further down)Red line: with a low like this (price not forming a structure at the lows but immediately going back up) I can't see price getting above the broken HL-structure, so SL should be somewhere above this HL-structure, so above the red line marking the top of the HL structure.Lower black line: if we get an SFP at the upper black line, price closing below this level would probably mean a new short opening with SL now being the SFP.Price reached the lower black line first: if price would now come back up to my level, there's likely more strength to it, increasing the chance of price pushing up higher.

Again: breaking down without a valid reason: this time you can speak of a mini-MSB but if it was a relevant one price shouldn't have consolidated at the highs that long. This makes the breakdown now weak.Also: price falling down against previous structure without having some breakdown PA at the highs makes the breakdown even weaker (previous structure 'washes' the strength out the breakdown.If price would fall straight down to the 76k lowest low I think this is a spot buy at the lowest low. No trade as there isn't a valid SL.---------------------The question now is: do you buy with a larger % of the allocated capital or not?I think, if price would go straight down, so without creating new structure during the breakdown, larger % is a valid option. But if there would be structure created, 1/3 or 1/2 is better. Why?New structure creates resistance for price going back up from the lows.If price would get above structure, the likelyhood of price going further up is higher so you would want to buy more, and if this new structure is created close to the lowest low you don't miss out much on the new buys. To make this more clear: let's say price would fall straight down without creating structure like it's doing now, the last structure there is would then be the current structure with the top of this structure being 88k. If you would want to wait for more 'validation' of price showing strength, you would then have to wait for price to close above 88k, missing out on 88k-76k= 12k.------------------------But yeah, a 100% buy is a bit stupid, too gambly. Think 1/2 is better and then wait for some time spend (1D close above level) above level and then buy the other 1/2 with hopefully not much of a price gap.Because: what if price just breaks straight through the level? I have my reasons for it being unlikely but who am I to say it can't happen? There is a reason I've said I don't buy levels blindly: so far it has never worked out! So maybe even buying 1/3 is better...Yes: 1/3 max. There's no need to act tough by going all in to prove your conviction.At the time of wirting this still not sure if we get the 1D candle close above the level or not. Bought the 1/3 on the level though in the morning. Might get an SFP of the lowest low for a bullish candle (15min engulfing candle). Have put a limit order on this low for the 1/3 --->1/2. Might delete later if it doesn't look good.Added here to go from 1/3 to 1/2 because the 1D Candle Close above 11 March level is guaranteed. Now thinking about the other 1/2 + opening a trade. The problem is: I don't know if an SFP of the LTF lowest low is still possible or if price will just start trending up. The possible SFP is important as for a trade I need a SL and current low as a SL is just too risky. Then I'd rather wait for a clear pump above 84k instead (above the structure) and then buy the HL with SL current lowest low. Now price is 79k, then price for the HL will (hopefully) be like 84-83k. Not that much of a difference and way more convincing.Bought some more at $79.100 to go from 5/10 to 7/10. 3/10 + 1R trade left. Without a hit of the highest high I think an SFP of the lowest low is not possible, so I have put the remaining 7/10 on the low after NY open, around $77.200, looks like a fine level for the HL. 1R trade still left as there's no clear SL.No. I'll wait for the 2nd day candle close. Two daily candle closes above the level is the safest you can get I think. Ofcourse there's never a 100% guarantee but let's say I think it's a 90%. I'd rather now wait for these last hours for the candle close than to try to buy the best price of the HL and risk price still closing below the level in the meantime.Setup invalidated with the 1D candle close below level. Will try to sell everything at that last high ~$80378. Will update later on which mistake I've made.The mistake made is regarding this level as a relevant level for the 1D Theory. One 1D candle close above the level as a reason to go long has only been proven valid when previously price closed above a relevant resistance-level on the 1D. Here that level is the 95k level which price hasn't yet closed above.I thought: every 1D cc above level on a relevant support-level is a buy as price now can't close below the level anymore but looking at the 70k structure this is not the case: 7 July 2024. Though a relevant support-level (relevant after enough horizontality) has always produced some kind of reaction (as it did yesterday by going to 82k).The correct thought process is:- Unless you get a LTF setup, a 1D candle close above a relevant support-level in itself doesn't provide a setup, as price can still close below it in the next several days. Though when price doesn't close below it but pushes away from the level, a HL or SFP eq low might be to be expected in the future (6 September 2024), though it is unknown to me if the HL is caused by the fact that price closed above a relevant resistance-level or if it is the not-closing below the relevant support level.- When price has closed above a relevant resistance-level on the 1D, then I think you can expect and react to a 1D candle close above a relevant-support level (10 October 2024). Either way, you may expect a HL (6 September 2024, 10 October 2024, 23 October 2024, 4 November 2024).--------------------------------Other mistake: putting limit orders on a level has never worked out before. I want to say: never put a limit order on any level: support or resistance, but that 48k level is tempting though....Price closing below the level LTF instead of it being an SFP (that's what you hope for when you put a limit order on a level) just means that there isn't a setup and you are now in a position while there is no setup: stress when price is trading below your entry and when price gets above your entry your thinking process gets scuffed as greed kicks in (why close when I'm in profit? Can if find cope-reasons for why staying in this trade is the better option so I don't have to close the trade and potentially lose out on more gains?). No setup = no reason to stay in the trade.

Invalidation = 15min candle close above wick.bwrooooooooooooooo