Technical analysis by EyyJasper about Symbol BTC on 8/18/2025

When I saw this PA on thursday I thought: this looks like a MSB. I compared this situation with other examples that worked but wasn't convinced: - Here price went up fast for the (kind of) SFP, but it wasn't a pump ----> which was the case in the other examples - Here price fell back on decent structure (blue box) -----------------------> which wasn't the case in the other examples Falling back on decent structure meaning: the PA after MSB below the blue line that fell back on the blue box. In previous examples there was more structure above that PA then below that PA. Here, with that blue box I didn't find this to overly be the case. ------------------ Now however, with structure formed over the weekend (the PA after MSB) which price has now fallen below of + the fact that the structure I spoke about as decent support (blue box) has proven to not be support, I don't see any support left anymore and I think there is a short setup as long as we don't get any significant 15min PA (like a big engulfing candle taking out any lows). So: I'm now actively looking for the short setup. I think the most obvious spot is the marked black dashed line, however I'm also thinking about: - Is it possible for price to go up way higher, taking out my SL but still creating a LH (in prpportion to the ATH)? - Is price that weak that I shouldn't even bother waiting for my entry level but search for the entry at current PA? First point is I think invalid: as this would be illogical given my idea that there isn't any support left: if the blue box couldn't give this kind of a high LH, how could current structure provide this? Second point is hard to say. For now though I think this is a decent observation to share. Will provide updates on new thoughts / trade entries.Hmmm, we've got the SFP in this current structure ------> thic could cap price --------> I entered here in current structure. I don't know if price can still go up from here to my entry, but I do know that I think this is a valid short setup so I shouldn't wait for the entry and just suck up the worse R:R.Rookie mistake with this entry: In this case there was only a valid SFP if price would drop below this structure ending the structure. You would then have a new structure with an SFP on top as a fine invalidation for when price pushes above it. I shorted within the structure, anticipating on the drop but we didn't get the drop and the SFP proved to be invalid: it was just another high within the structure. God my perfectionism goes mayhem with this mistake, but hey: lets first see if price will actually even hit my entry and even more important: will this actually be a valid setup? Got 1R on it...Closed here for -0.15R. I think it lacks momentum to break down further as price didn't manage to close below the low of yesterday on the 15min TF. It tried twice, then went back up to the high but wasn't an SFP ----> I think the chances of price pushing up further are high now.It could SFP yesterday's high because there's still lots of structure above the high. If we then get a new LL this SFP is the perfect SL and I will re-enter the trade.