Expate

Hello Friday! Never, ever, ever trade crypto on weekend, but let's hop in! 🔻 What I expect more? Continuation of Bull Trap! (Probability 70/30) Few Reasons: Price broke 20 EMA(daily) and is sliding just above the 50 EMA with "dead-cat" bounce attempts. RSI is going down below 50 — momeentuum is faaadiing. No signs of some big demand at this level (low volume on small green candles + Iran uncertainty). Notable, that we are far from any bounce move (which would support re-accumulation). Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation (Most likely) Expecting BTC to test the 99.5k zone — this is the key support level becasue of several arguments: 1) 0.886 Fib 2) Confluence with previous horizontal range support 3) 100 EMA 4) Under psychological level 100k 5) RSI needs to cool off before taking higher targets. If 99.5k broken, next stop is near 88.5k (0.786 Fib) I wouldn't like to analyse further possible downslide of BTC, so lets stay so far in already negative scenario within 88.5k, but let's keep in mind, that maximum pain we will see near 75k zone. 🟡 Alternative: Short-term Bounce (Probability 30/70) BTC could attempt bounce towards 105–106.5k (retest of broken structure + 20 EMA resistance) If this bounce has low volume and rejection near EMAs or RSI stays below 50 , it's a sell opportunity — not a bullish reversal. ✅ Final thoughts for short term: stay away from the market. From 103.5k I would expect downward continuation toward 99.5k with possible minor bounce attempts along the way. Wait for strong reversal signal near 100k and enter LONG with tight SL. Don't trade during the weekend, unless there's a once in a lifetime opportunity. Have fun!Ready for a long? Structure touched 98 673, currently trading near 99 400. Let's check this long setup: Entry 99400 SL 98300Wow, this setup was really nice. Long closed within 107 100, big fat profit was taken. Let's see what follows next. Hope my idea was helpful for you and you earned some extra $$$$.Well, we did hit 110+ — but in the end, it’s the one who takes the money that’s right! 😉💰

Ethereum is super slow these days, ranging tightly between $2430 and $2800 for weeks after a recovery. Current price action shows signs of preparation for the next BIG move, but in what side!?!! Let’s break this down using the AMD model: 🔸 Accumulation We saw ETH bottoming out in April after a deep correction. Since then, price reclaimed the 200 EMA and consolidated just above the 0.5 Fib level at $2437. This horizontal zone has been the accumulation range base. 🔸 Manipulation Currently, ETH is testing the lower part of this range. Based on the chart structure, a possible liquidity squeeze breaking $2437 (mid-level) so we expect bearish trap for late sellers and non-believers before a viiolent reversal. This would be the classic “spring” move often seen in Wyckoff chart structures. 🔸 Distribution (later stage)** If (or when) ETH breaks above $2800 and gets new attention with strong volume, this can lead to a mind blown fuses expansion — targeting the psychological $3000 and after recovery to previous ATH zone. Previous ATH at $4875 is the main target. Reasonably, this would be the final stage of distribution before a probable pump and altseason madness starts. But we are far for that right now, expect it not earlier than mid-autumn. 🧠 Key Technicals: Okay, my Heikin Ashi candles show weakening — which means that we are close to the start of the Manipulation phase. RSI pulling back, resetting momentum for the next move. Fibonacci zones: 0.5 = $2437 0.618 = $1862 0.65 = $1706 🔮 Trade Idea (not financial advice): A fake move below $2437 followed by fast and immediate recovery would be an ideal long entry. Cancel trade if daily close below $1860, we can get lower this time. TP? Well, depends on your belief. If btc made almost 2x from previous high, $3000 / $3500 / $4000 / $4500 / $5000 could be good? ETH could see even 8-8.5k this cycle, but its super positive outlook on current market structure. 📊 Summary: ETH is showing classic AMD structure: Accumulation (in progress for 6 weeks, 6 fn weeks!) ⏳ Manipulation (going down) 📉 Distribution (recovery + growth) 🚀 Some while ago, ETH was already playing simillar games, so why it should be different this time? Breakout will come only after weak hands are shaken out, only after retail traders will sh*t their pants we will see growth. Hopefully we will see immediate growth from current levels, but I'm more realist this time. Ciao!Few days passed and there we go, ETH has reached first shoulder near 2100$.Neckline aka support was retested, and let's see further reaction. As usually, we have two options: 1) to start boosting from current levels, or 2) to see one more (healthy) dip to get rid from the recent "passengers" who took their longs.🚀 Nearly 60 days of consolidation — we’ve seen the shakeouts, and now distribution could be next. Get ready… the next rocket might be launching soon! 💥📈

After a clean downtrend with lower highs and lower lows, ETH has just printed a clear local reversal from the previous demand zone around $2 480–$2 510 . Price-action shows us a rounded bottom, that is holding above the 0.5 Fib from the previous pump. We now see: ✅ Break of structure on the lower timeframes (check 15m) ✅ Price reclaiming 20/50 EMA with increasing volume ✅ Strong green engulfing candle, coming before momentum shift ✅ Stop hunter candle below support and quick recovery aka retest. Trade Idea: If ETH holds above $2510–$2520, we may see a strong move toward the next supply zone near $2750–$2780 . Entry: $2520–$2530 Stop-loss: Below $2440 (or around $2400 for safer invalidation below Fib 0.5) Targets: • TP1: $2666 • TP2: $2720 • TP3: $2770 🟩 Watch for confirmation with a candle close above $2540 + volume spike. 🟥 Cancel if price loses $2480 local support zone.TP1 is almost there, you can close trade fully within 2650, or you can close 40% of the trade and move SL to BE (entry point).Original TP1 was reached, recent high 2679.88. We could see one more spike, but afterwards correction is possible.

(c) First things first. First Top: Around $2,860 on May 6. Second Top: Around $2,830–2,850, recently. Neckline is near marked by horizontal 0.5 Fibonacci level — current setup is very clean. I would say even too clean to be truth. Price has pulled back after the second peak and is hovering near the neckline. No breakdown yet, but we are close to that. _________________________________________ 📉 Trade Setup (If Double Top Confirms) 1. Entry: → Short below the neckline , approx. @ $2 430 with confirmation (candle should close below this level). 2. Stop Loss (SL):** → Should be above second top, around $2 860. → High risk SL: Above recent candle high ~$2 620. 3. Take Profit (TP):** → We get it from height measure: Top was at $2 850, neckline at $2 430 = ~$400 range → TP1: $2 430 − $420 = $2 010 → TP2: Optional — 0.618 Fib zone near $1 860 _________________________________________ 🔁 Retest Setup (If Break + Retest Happens) If price breaks below the neckline and then comes back up to retest ~$2 430 as resistance, we are looking to: 1) Weak bullish candle or bearish engulfing on retest 2) Lower volume on retest 3) Enter short there with a tighter SL above retest wick. ⚠️ !! WARNING !! DOUBLE TOP IS Not yet confirmed – price needs to break neckline and re-test it. We are already in BULL's market, therefore FOLLOW THE GLOBAL TREND. We are expecting volatility today because of Powells speech, thereofre this setup can be a TRAP, especially, If price closes back above ~$2 600 with strength — pattern is invalidated. If you trade against the trend you should be ready for consequences. Good luck!DOUBLE TOP IS NOT CONFIRMED

🕯️ Spinning Top candle – What It Means!? A spinning top has: 1. Small body (open ≈ close) 2. Long upper and lower wicks What it shows? It shows indecision between buyers and sellers after a previous move. Ok, so what we can learn from it? 📉 We can learn how to Trade a Spinning Top candle! THIS IS A SHORT SETUP (if confirmation follows) Confirmation candle: A bearish candle that closes below the spinning top’s low ($106,407) Entry: ~$106,350–106,400 (after breakdown) Stop Loss: Above the high of the spinning top: $107,350 Take Profit: $103,800 (deeper pullback near EMAs) Probability: 65/35 bearish if next candle confirms rejection. Enough theory, see yourself!Spinning Top Setup Status: INVALID 1. Next 1H candle body closed inside the spinning top range. 2. No confirmation of breakdown.

I'm expecting BTC to retest nearest fibs, grab liqudity near 101 800 and then rally to the previous ATH levels. Let's see how it unfolds :)

Bearish pin bar appeared + bearish divergence, expecting to get into a minor correction before further growth. This post is nostly dedicated to bearish pin bar to see how it works in real time environment during active trade.Bearish pin bar worked as a charm this time. Wonderfull!

Bitcoin 4H Chart Analysis 1. Trend Structure: Current trend: Strong bullish impulse from ~$84,000. Price broke previous highs (~$100,000) and is holding above. All EMAs (50/100/200) are sloping upward — confirming the uptrend. No reversal signs yet in the current structure. 2. RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI is near 80, but is it overbought? No clear bearish divergence on the 4H chart. RSI might cool off via sideway consolidation movement, not necessarily a sharp drop. 3. Key Levels: Current Price: ~$103,800 Immediate Resistance: $104,400–$105,000 Major Resistance: $106,800–$108,000 Immediate Support: $102,000 → $100,500 Key Support Zone: $98,000–$99,000 4. Scenarios: Scenario A – Final push to ~$105k, then pullback Price breaks $104.4k, reaches ~$105k, then retraces to ~$101.5k–$102k. Probability: 60% Scenario B – Strong breakout to $106k–$108k without pullback Price continues impulsively despite RSI being overheated. Probability: 30% Scenario C – Reversal from current level (~$103.8k) Price fails to break $104.4k, forms a double top or fakeout. Probability: 10% Conclusion: Current trend is bullish, but momentum is stretched in consolidation. Most likely: price will test $104.4k–105k and pull back slightly before deciding the next move up. If price moves above $106k cleanly, we’re likely entering a new breakout phase and on the way for the new ATH!Soo, we have met several factors that say current move could be followed by further growth. Todays low was met even at 100 718, if you took short from that area - congrats! Otherwise, keep watching!

🕰️ Timeframe: 4H 📈 Pattern: Inverse Head & Shoulders (Bullish Reversal Setup) 📍 Current Price: $1,518 📏 Neckline: ~$1,589 (marked in blue) 🧠 Pattern Structure: Left Shoulder: ~$1,475 Head: ~$1,420 Right Shoulder: ~$1,470 Neckline: ~$1,589 Measured Target: Neckline to bottom = ~$1,589 - $1,420 = $169 → Breakout Target = $1,589 + 169 = $1,758** — aligns [perfectly] with Fib 0.65 ($1,762)** 🧩 Confluence Factors: 🔹 Fibonacci 0.65 @ $1762 = Target zone of the pattern 🔹 Fibonacci 0.618 @ $1915 = Secondary resistance zone 🔹 Clean neckline retest idea → breakout & retest of $1589 = ideal entry trigger 🔹 RSI divergence (if any) & volume confirmation on breakout = final confidence boost ✅ Strategy Plan: Entry Idea: Break & retest of $1589 Take-Profit: $1758–1766 Stop-Loss: Below right shoulder ($1465–1470 zone) Risk/Reward: ~2.5R depending on entry accuracy Probability: 65/35 bullish continuation if neckline breaks with strong volumeHalfway there50% closing right now, SL moved to break even.

📊 Ethereum (ETH/USDT) - Daily Outlook 📊 🔹 Current Price: $1,809 🔹 Key Levels: 🟢 Support: $1,762 (Fib 0.65), $1,915 (Fib 0.618) 🔴 Resistance: $2,481 (Fib 0.5), $3,047 (Fib 0.382) 🔮 Possible Scenarios: 📉 Scenario 1: Bounce from Fib 0.65 📈 ETH is testing the key golden pocket zone ($1,762–$1,915). If buyers step in, we could see a relief rally towards the $2,000-$2,100 zone. Breaking above $2,100 could trigger a move towards $2,480 (Fib 0.5). 🔹 Odds: 55/45 📈 Scenario 2: Break Below 0.65, Retest Lower Levels 🚨 If ETH loses $1,762, it may drop further towards the $1,600-$1,500 range. Bearish EMAs (all sloping down) suggest ongoing downside pressure. RSI is still weak, showing no strong reversal signals yet. 🔹 Odds: 45/55 ⚠️ EMA & RSI Considerations ETH is trading below all key EMAs (50, 100, 200), confirming a bearish structure. RSI is hovering around 40 but not yet oversold, meaning more downside is possible. A bullish divergence on RSI would strengthen the bounce scenario. 🎯 Key Watch Points: 1️⃣ Holding above $1,762-$1,915 zone = bullish potential. 2️⃣ Reclaiming 50 EMA ($2,100) = stronger confirmation for upside. 3️⃣ Losing $1,762 = further downside risk. 🚀 Short-term caution, but golden pocket zone [u](right now) [/u] could be a reversal opportunity, especially if you do believe in ETH in a long-term.Unfortunately, Ethereum decided to visit lower lows and went with scenario 2.