EncryptShawn

The pullback I outlined in my last ETH post came to fruition, however, there was a surprise retest of resistance before failing again and pulling back. Now we are at the bottom of the ascending channel but if we lose support here, it looks like we may be forming a sideways channel, in light blue lines on the chart. With support of bottom of channel and 200 EMA on the 4h candle, seems like a good chance to hold here. Lets look at the details.-------------------------------------------# ETH/USD Analysis – 4H Chart 📊 ## Structure and Price Action: **Parallel Ascending Channel** ETH/USD is trading within a **parallel ascending channel**, with price oscillating between the upper and lower bounds (green lines). The price is currently testing the **lower trendline support** of the channel, following a recent rejection near the **$4,000–$4,050** region. **Bearish Rejection at Resistance** Sellers stepped in at the **$4,050 Bearish Order Block (OB)** (red zone), leading to a sharp reversal. This indicates heavy supply at this level, halting upward momentum. **Bullish Order Block Retest** The price is approaching multiple **Bullish Order Blocks (OB)** around **$3,500–$3,600** (green zones), a strong demand area where buyers previously defended. ---## Support and Resistance: **Immediate Resistance** - **$3,800–$4,000**: Key resistance zone aligning with the upper channel boundary and recent bearish OB. - **$4,050**: Critical rejection level and prior swing high. **Key Support Levels** - **$3,500–$3,600**: Primary demand zone, reinforced by bullish OBs. - **$3,300**: Secondary support area in case of deeper pullback. ---## Indicators **EMAs (20/50/100/200):** - Price has fallen **below EMA 20 ($3,880.60)** and **EMA 50 ($3,810.46)** – short-term bearish bias. - **EMA 100 ($3,613.86)**: Acting as dynamic support near the current price. - **EMA 200 ($3,380)**: Long-term support level. **Parabolic SAR** - SAR dots are **above the price**, signaling bearish momentum. Watch for a shift below the price for trend reversal. **Volume** - Volume **spiked on the recent drop**, reflecting increased selling pressure near the lower channel boundary. **Stochastic RSI** - Stochastic RSI is **oversold** (3.69/7.86), signaling potential for a short-term bounce. **Money Flow Index (MFI)** - MFI sits at **23.89** (oversold), suggesting buyers may soon step in. ---## Pattern Analysis: **Ascending Channel Breakdown Risk** ETH/USD is at the **lower channel support ($3,600)**. A breakdown below this level could invalidate the bullish channel and trigger bearish momentum. ---## Probabilistic Outlook **Bullish Bounce (Primary Scenario):** If buyers defend the **$3,500–$3,600** zone and volume increases: - **First Target**: $3,800–$3,850 (EMA 20 and recent resistance). - **Second Target**: $4,000–$4,050 (upper channel resistance and bearish OB). **Bearish Breakdown (Alternate Scenario):** If price closes below **$3,500**: - **First Target**: $3,300 (next significant support). - **Second Target**: $3,200–$3,000 (psychological support and structural zone). ---## Key Signals to Watch: 1. **Lower Channel Support ($3,600):** Break below = bearish continuation. 2. **Volume on Breakdown or Bounce:** Rising volume confirms the move. 3. **EMA 100 Support ($3,613):** Holding this EMA could trigger a short-term bounce. 4. **Stochastic RSI and MFI:** Both oversold; favoring bounce unless sellers persist. ---## Order booksTook a significant hit, losing about 15% of its prior levels. The market depth ration has remained stable, inferring bullish sentiment overall but weakening books can deteriorate this, we will look for order book levels to recover past today's levels to validate reversal. ## Conclusion ETH/USD is at a **critical juncture** within the ascending channel. Buyers must defend **$3,600** to maintain the bullish structure. A successful bounce targets **$3,800–$4,000**, while a breakdown below **$3,500** could open the door for a decline toward **$3,300–$3,200**. 🔍 **Watch volume and key support levels for confirmation of the next move.** 🚨

I know it doesnt seem like much of a dip but in the ascending channel it has assumed, it is a dip to bottom of channel. I have been posting a bunch of momentum trade targets where a resisting trendline is broken and assets break out once they finally break through, but a lot of those can leave you wondering where to exit, best if you can handle it with a trailing stop loss if you have it available to you.Buying the dip tends to be safer and you have a clear definition of when to accept loss and bail and where about's to exit. I prefer ascending trendlines, I dont like to swing trade a descending trendline though in some market conditions thats all we have, but right now this is a bull market so there are plenty of options.So here with BAND you see 3 components to my entry#1 A strong identifiable ascending trendline#2 We are testing support#3 We break out of the short term descending resistance that pushed us down to test support, indicating we are switching directions from descent to ascent.Then where to exit, the easiest way to see where resistance is, copy your Tradingview line and paste it, then move it up, you will find top of channel by moving the line (without changing angle, just moving up or down) to the top of the tallest candle above the trendline. You can also usually find a mid-channel line which will present resistance and support along the way.This chart infers if we enter here, we might can exit at around $2.70, depending on when we get to top of channel. Of course this hasnt triggered yet, it could break that longer supporting trendline and then it would be bearish and not ideal to trade. I have numerous assets I am watching that are in this state now, i am currently using 3 commas to monitor the trendline I have #3 pointing to on this (and similar on other assets), if it breaks through, I will pick up the position automatically. I can use an exit signal also via the top trendline though atm I am trying with a loose trailing stop loss.Orderbooks dont look exciting on BAND atm and volume isnt exciting either, but I think its hard to use those when trying to "buy a bottom", you are trying to buy it in its worst condition as of recently.Anyway another opp to bring to your attention, another tool you might can use in your toolbelt and of course as usually, DYOR, this write up should not be something you use as the deciding factor to trade an asset. Also as always, sentiment can change any time a trendline is broken so watch the lines and be ready to adapt.

Look at that resistance at .40, really strong, its also top of pennant, if we break through here, expect a nice run, if she holds the resistance we will probably visit back to bottom of pennant to test support.Just a heads up of a potential opportunity, do your own research. Watch the trend line, watch for the break out.

As you see by the chart, we broke out of a descending trend recently for ETH and we had a tight ascending channel, which we now have broken out of again, likely ETH will make another really nice jump soon on the break out. This appears to be early on in the ETH break out where ETH appears to be lagging BTC by at least a couple of weeks.We also see that BTC reversed a short term descending channel recently, broke out of it and that helped it surge past 100k with ease and now we are in an ascending channel that is a break out from BTC's prior ascending pattern.BTC ChartWe also see that since ETH has started breaking out, it has really impacted the BTC dominance chart, BTC has lost over 5% of its market dominance in the last week or so.BTC Dominance chartOverall both of these seem real bullish. I dont actually hold or trade either one, though I came up on ETH, where I started buying ETH at .88 cents each. I dont trade them because the chances of either having 50%-100% gains in a day is pretty much impossible, even 20% is not likely they are just such large caps with so much order books and participation not to mention ETF impact. But there are a lot of cryptos that are running 20%, 50%, 100% every day. The thing is, if BTC/ETH are in bad health, it makes trading anything a risk because when they dump they effect the market. At the moment, it does not look as though BTC or ETH are staging anything that would cause any significant negative impact to alts other than if they run hard and thats where all the money goes.for order books they both seem strong with positive trader sentiment though BTC had pulled back it appears to be building rapidly again.

Notice that there is a longer term resistance and then we break through it, well we just did recently, this is a momentum play. Its possible if we see more market pullback like we did this morning we will need to start looking at finding support and buying the dip instead of just jumping on momentum runs. For now there seems to be no shortage of breakouts happening across crypto to trade on momentum.You should evaluate these yourself, always DYOR, I am just raising a flag on a couple assets of interest.Currently on the orderbooks, LINK looks a bit more healthy than ZEC but also this is a break out from an already existing breakout for LINK, it has had more time to build force.Here is the LINK chart:

Both appear to be breaking out, trying to early warn. Transitioning from ada/xlm once they break down. Dont have time for more, look at the charts, see the break, dyor, be vigilant.

This market is great for trading trend lines, look at this chart as an example, the two thick dark purple likes. The short one represented resistance for about 5 months, we finally broke that resistance and we broke out, we ran to top of what had been resistance for about 18 months, we had a small hiccup in both places and the break out from that trend line lead to XLM running virally, up to 65% in one day. Every day there are may assets reaching towards a break out point, and that's what I try to look for. I start on 1 day charts and then come down to a 4h or 1h candle, really no since in going to a shorter candle unless you are looking for precision entry. The main thing to take away from this is that when an asst breaks a resistance it tends to run, many times first coming down and proving that line to be support instead of resistance, then taking off, sin any case, the break of a trend line is generally a fuse lit for a run. The longer the resistance, the more times its resisted and then it breaks out, the break out tends to be stronger.Here are some alts i have been watching that seem to be staging breakouts or possibly in an early stage of the breakout.I like ENJ, ANKR, BAT, LINK, RNDR, DOT, 1INCH, mostly these are midcap, but they have started to break out from recent trends.I kind of like LTC, LRC, ETC, ATOM, BNT, MASK, MPL. Higher risk, but they have staged a breakout and most of these have lower marketcap so easier for them to get pushed further.Lots of other coins nearing some breakout points as well, they seem to be coming in waves with each day throwing us some 20,50, even 100% gains some times.I will try to post another update of break outs soon but in between all the trading and working to try to make my ai tech startup do something, my time is short. That also can lead me to evaluate things too quickly sometimes so don't just take what I say as a trigger to pull, use it as a flag to get your interest in evaluating these things yourself.The market is very bullish right now and there is a lot of opportunity to make nice gains and also to lose a lot buying the dead end of a recent run. Be vigilant.

Seems to be breaking out, next major resist seems to be around $10, thats it, nothing else, its a chart breakout, alerting as it breaks. Orderbooks have been looking pretty good too. Channel breakouts usually perform well in short order. Looking at the 4 hour chart, it may not be ready to break yet, may pull back a little before we see a solid break through. This is not trade advice, DYOR.

I am no astronomer but I think I might see the moon! This breakout is significant. Look at the channel inside the major channel, the one we just broke out of a week or so ago. Now imagine in perspective a similar run as we break out of that much larger channel. Technically this is not confirmed, confirmation would be after we pull back some and prove that old resistance as support now but this breakthrough is still quite significant.Orderbooks still arent growing much but that probably just means traders dont seem to be day trading much more, so likely this growth is from a large buy and hold movement. I do suspect more traders will be fattening up the orderbooks soon though, its a day trader friendly environment ATM.Looking at the BTC Dominance chart, which is also a thing, anything that can be charted really has patterns that can be observed, so anything that can be put into numbers can be charted and patterns can be found. BTC Dominance is how much of all the market capitalization of all the crypto belongs to BTC, what % of market dominance is from BTC valuation. And well we broke out a while back, it was already an indicator of a jump in dominance to come but many times BTC gains dominance when the market crashes as well so BTC dominance rising is not always a good thing. What happen is that BTC drop 5% and Alts (mostly contributed to by ETH's marketcap) drop 10-20%, that is pretty frequent, well that increases BTC Dominance. Of course the other way, BTC runs but runs harder than alts, and that doesnt have to be the same % because BTC already has such a massive market cap if it moves 1% it will already add more market capitalization than the entire market cap of many Cryptos.Here you can see that BTC Dominance break out and have staged a run. This chart insinuates that we could see BTC claim 73% dominance before resisting.In general I am likely pretty bullish on Crypto for the foreseeable future. I do recognize that BTC and the USD are on a collision course. If there is a large outflow of USD to crypto, the US could implement capitol controls as most countries do in that situation. It could be a long time but the more viral BTC runs, the more imminent and fast approaching a conflict with the USD and BTC will be. On top of potential outflows of USD to crypto triggering monetary capital controls, this would hugely degrade the United States ability to control the globe with global audits, sanctions and monetary control if the USD starts losing to BTC globally. In both cases BTC would be seen as a threat to Americas security and our govt could act against it, or if the USA does not take action against it somehow, it could finally rid the world of the tight grip America has on it. I really don't know how long for either of those scenarios to play out, only I am confident these are tangible conflicts of interest that will face the US and Crypto some time in the future.In the meantime, there is a lot of opportunity to take advantage of. If you are trading make sure you always DYOR and build a tool belt of knowledge, only day trade with what you can afford to lose, dont play with margins unless you are really comfortable with losing everything you are trading with. Ideally, use a stop loss and capture gains with a trailing stop loss if possible, especially if you are doing a momentum trade, getting on the wrong side of an asset that just ran 50% and now pulling back can wreck your funds fast. As always, be vigilant and dominate.

We see that we broke out of a descending trend we had since March, we had an ascending channel that put us on the right track and once we passed that 200day moving average, we launched through the top of that ascending channel.We can see its consolidating on top of what is now looking to be support. It is possible that this could take well into next year to reach taht $17.50 target but the longer it takes the higher it will be since its an ascending trendline. But the way crypto has been popping off, I suspect it will be much sooner. Once it gets here we would need to reasses, pullback is very possible but we could see consolidation just under and a push through, but even $17.50 from current $13.85 is not bad. Also Link is a good project I have followed for a while. A decentralized hub for data and data processing, but really right now I am just looking at the charts. I like holding some things long and having trading money separate, never touching the long holds. Right now the market has a lot of opportunity to favor an agile day trader. This is not investment advice and day trading is risky and can lead to all kinds of, make you sad, losses. Its like gambling, they tell you only bring to the table what you can afford to lose.I will try to point out some other alts that look primed as well but I have a busy schedule and do this when I can. There seems to be a lot to watch right now, and we are seeing 50%+ runners again, like Propy today. Stay vigilant.