CryptoVan-HQ

👉#BTC has deviated from the RLs and has since seen a magnificent recovery into KL, which, if closed above on the daily, can result in higher prices, potentially even a new ATH. The weekly candle itself is a long-legged doji, which, as you know, is an indecisive candle with a very small body representing indecision, and rightly so, as we continue to range on HTF with no resolution above or below the SH and SL.I also note that despite the recovery, we’ve closed below the weekly resistance at 106400 on HTF. A weekly close above it would be ideal to confirm higher prices👉On LTF/MTF – We’ve seen a break above the TL as well as 4H & 12H closes above the PSH at 106766, which ought to be sufficient as a signal for an upward move. For better confirmation, I’d like to see a daily close above PSH, followed by a PB into KL, and we can then look for entries on BTC or alts.If, however, we see a rejection from the CMP and get below ~103K, it suggests a retest of 100K and potentially even 98K. So keep that in mind, even though that’s an unlikely scenario given the strength of the PA atm.💪I also note that we haven’t left any imbalances in the chart. Every imbalance has been filled by an LH, which suggests we might see a swift move up if it comes. Now we’re just waiting for the daily close to confirm the BO above PSH, which seems likely given the PA.💪Also, all BVOLs charts are at support atm, suggesting a massive surge in volatility may follow.

BTC (Post Weekly Close Update)We’ve confirmed a weekly SFP and observed a bearish engulfing weekly close, signaling caution at the very least. Whether the price corrects to our target, BOs here, or reaches a new ATH remains uncertain, so we’ll play it level by level. Imo, subtle signs of bullish exhaustion are worth noting.That said, I don’t expect a collapse to 70K, though anything is possible. I anticipate a drop below the key 100K level, targeting the 18H HOB and weekly FVG around 98K. We could even see a wick into the CME gap, YO, and VRVP support observed at 94K. This move may spark fear, traders anticipating lower, with some calling for a bear market. However, I expect the price to reverse, reclaim key levels, and resume the uptrend.On LTF/MTF - charts, we’re trading level by level. A range may form, allowing the market to gather liquidity to sustain the trend, especially since we missed liquidity at 72K. As long as the price remains below 107K, scalping makes more sense than swing trading in the short term. A break above 107K could target 110K or a new ATH. However, if the price reaches 107K - around 107800 - I’d consider shorting. A daily close above 107K might trap retail traders into opening longs, only for the price to retrace and head lower (keep this scenario in mind).VELO data:Market dynamics are stable. Spot is flat or selling, while perps are driving pric. OI has dropped from dangerous levels, and funding rates remain slightly positive. Overall, nothing significant is occurring, which aligns with the current range-bound market.

BTC has seen a weekly close above the 93700 support, suggesting bullish strength and likely continuation if this level holds on the weekly. We remain bullish as long as 93700 is maintained; a drop below it would be the first SOW on the HTF, potentially targeting 89K–90K, and possibly 1D OB at 83K–85K. Technically, this remains a LH until the 99500 SH is convincingly reclaimed, ideally on a weekly close.On the daily, however, we’ve observed the first SOW, closing below the SH at 95K after a rejection from the 1D supply zone, refined into MTF HOBs, where whales initially sold off aggressively. This isn’t alarming, but it warrants attention. With the SPX at resistance, the DXY at support, USDT.D closing the weekly well above the SL at 5.03, and TOTAL at resistance, these are signs of caution, in my view, despite the series of bullish news we’ve seen. That said, with the HTF remaining bullish, we’ll focus on exploiting LTF and MTF moves. The FOMC meeting on Wednesday could certainly bring volatility in the markets, particularly as BVOL24H and BVOL7D, as mentioned in the last update, are at support.👀To further examine the weakness, note the contrast between the two horizontal ranges (grey boxes). The first range saw a BO followed by impulsive PA, smashing through the 90K key level. In contrast, the second range produced a BO but encountered an HTF supply, resulting in a notably weaker bounce compared to the first BO from the lower range. This could potentially manifest as a deviation if the price closes below the RL, making the 8D HOB at 89K–90K our next target.On the LTF/ MTF, we’ve also seen a break below the TL, with the other resistance TL being respected, indicating further weakness. Although we haven’t yet seen HTF weakness, I believe a scalp-sized short from the 11H OB, refined into a 2H HOB at 95500 SH, makes sense with a tight invalidation, or from the MTF level around 97500, if provided. If the daily closes above 95500 again, I might consider a scalp long into the 1D supply for a potential DT or even the 100K psychological level.

#BTC has been range-bound on the weekly , recently forming an SFP below the range low but failing to close below the Feb and Mar 10th lows. Could we see an SFP above the RH ($90K) before moving lower, potentially toward the 65K-$72K target? That remains to be seen. The HTF MS remains bearish, and until it shifts, the risk to the downside is high. For a bullish shift on the weekly, we need weekly closes above $94000. Until then, downside risk persists.On LTF/MTF: I update my analysis regularly, but for now, I’m considering a few scenarios:👉a. BTC could bounce from an 18H HOB if the 2H HOB breaks, potentially aligning with USDT.D hitting a 23H HOB at 5.62%. This might form a DB at a 22H PHOB at 5.35%, or USDT.D could target a 12D demand or a 22H HOB at 5.15%.👉b. BTC might bounce, breaking the current 21H OB, and reach the HTF supply at $90K, while USDT.D takes the 23H PHOB and possibly the 22H HOB before rising to 5.77%-6.01%.Also note, the daily close below the $84600 SH shows weakness on the chart. There’s little to do until we either reach $72K or see an MS shift, which could open risky upside trades. These are risky because we haven’t taken the liquidity needed for higher prices. MT also mentioned that higher prices without key level breaks are likely a bull trap. Avoid heavy trades until direction is clear. Until then, we focus on taking LTF scalp trades 🤝

DOGE is quickly approaching the 3D HOB at 0.12 and 2M Demand at 0.15, which would be a fantastic RR opportunity if in confluence with BTC and TOTAL. All the information, such as TP, short, and supply, is provided in the chart. Mark those key levels and keep an eye on them :)

Again, not an awful lot has changed since last week’s update. We’ve now closed a weekly candle yet again in no man’s land; in fact, one could argue it’s a bearish engulfing candle that closed below the previous week’s level, solidifying further bearish sentiment and likely continuation until key SH has been reclaimed. Like I mentioned in last week’s update - for now, we’re waiting for 65K–72K, a break of ATH, or at least a reclamation of HTF 🗝️ swings (95K minimum) to jump back into HTF trades. Until then, I’m exploiting LTF/MTF moves.Another thing to note: Everyone is so fixated on 72K being the potential bottom (if reached). It makes me wonder: will 72K happen soon (it will eventually), and if it does, will it hold? I personally think we’ll see a deeper pullback into the 2W demand at 68K, or potentially the 1W PHOB at 65K, which I’ve mentioned several times.On LTF/MTF - I’ve been updating every trade, and they’ve been playing out quite well so far. We failed to hold the 23H HOB at 83K, thereby breaking below the MTF SL at 83130, and now the same level is acting as an obstacle to higher prices. If accepted above, I expect 84K, potentially 86K, before a possible downward continuation.For us to see higher prices on MTF, we need to reclaim 88744, SH, to target 96K - potentially the 2D OB at 100K, which is also a psychological level and confluent with the volume drop in VRVP, as shown in the image above. If 88744 is reclaimed, followed by a pullback into newly formed liquidity or BB, I’d then look for a long to the above-mentioned levels. As long as we’re below 88,744, downward pressure remains.