CiceroVip

Market Outlook: The "Coordinated Pivot" Thesis (Nov 1, 2025) This analysis outlines a high-probability thesis for a major policy pivot that could spark a significant reflationary, risk-on rotation in the markets. The central forecast, with a 55-70% probability, is a coordinated move involving a pause on tariffs and a 50 basis point (bp) interest rate cut. This would act as a "green light" for risk assets. Supporting Evidence & Observations The outlook is supported by several recent market developments: Technical Resistance: Gold was firmly rejected at the $2,450/oz level, which is consistent with historical resistance and typical behavior in a pre-reflation environment. Yield Breakout: The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield broke out from 4.55% to 4.68% between Oct 15-21. This move aligns more with the market repricing for growth rather than fearing a recession. Institutional Flows: A spike in crypto trading volume on Oct 11 showed signatures of institutional-scale accumulation, a pattern seen in previous risk-on cycles. The model also assumes that current tariffs are creating a drag on the economy (-0.5pp on GDP, -490k jobs) that policymakers will be motivated to reverse. Scenarios & Probabilities While the coordinated pivot is the base case, it's crucial to understand the alternative paths. 📈 Coordinated Pivot (55-70% Probability): A tariff pause plus a 50bp cut triggers synchronized relief. Expected Impact: A weaker USD and a strong risk-on rotation into cyclical stocks, small caps, and high-yield credit. Safe havens like gold and long-duration Treasuries would underperform. ⚖️ Fed Fights Alone (20% Probability): The Fed cuts by 50bp, but there is no tariff pause, creating a policy mismatch and a stagflationary tilt. Expected Impact: Commodities and TIPS would get a bid, along with quality defensive stocks. Trade-exposed cyclical assets would come under pressure. 📉 Policy Stalemate (10-15% Probability): No tariff pause and no significant rate cut leads to a high risk of a policy error and recession. Expected Impact: A classic risk-off move where investors flee to Treasuries, the USD, gold, and defensive stocks. Actionable Strategy & Key Triggers The recommended approach is to begin pre-positioning for the base case while managing risk until confirmation. Core Positioning: Start making incremental additions to cyclicals and high-yield (HY) credit. However, maintain hedges (USD, gold) until policy is officially confirmed. Optionality: Use call spreads on small caps and industrials to capture upside, while using protective puts on major indices to hedge through the November event window. Watch these triggers to confirm or invalidate the thesis: ✅ Bull Trigger: Explicit announcement of a tariff pause combined with guidance for a rate cut. This is the signal to fully commit to the risk-on stance. ⚠️ Neutral Trigger: A rate cut is announced, but there is no action on tariffs. This would require a reassessment of equity exposure. ❌ Bear Trigger: No rate cut is announced, and tariff rhetoric escalates. This is the signal to rotate fully into a risk-off, defensive posture.

Smart money are buying. Whale are accumulating. Things might be volatile soon see you at the top. -Mr. Cicero

This micro bottom appears poised for a significant reversal from its current price level. Fundamentals are predominantly bullish, albeit with slight concerns regarding geopolitical factors. On-chain data is emphatically indicating a bottom, with numerous indicators supporting this view. Such an opportunity may not arise again; the trajectory is expected to be upward from this point forward. Key level for entry $60.3K, $59.5K and $58.2K potentially a wick on longer TF TP $73.1K, $75.2K and $82.9K Lev 20X -Mr. Cicero #Fundamental #ItoldYouFirst #CiceroVIP #UnityFirst entry Hit!Running! and in profitCheers!!! for those who following. 100% accuracy on btc from start till now

I'm shorting here. The entire market is extremely bearish; it's difficult to remain bullish. Perhaps I'm mistaken, but if the fundamentals are bearish, so am I. This is exit pump beware. - Mr Cicero #Fundamental #IToldYouFirstThe presence of lower highs and lower lows confirms that I am currently recommending no positions in the market.Liquidity grab happening now. I'm still expecting a wick from current price75.4K is the price you need to watch out for breakout or major reversalI remain correct!

Accumulation done 55K next target then 67.8K last target before halving. This is fundamental not TA see you soon at the top. #CiceroVip #Fundamental #UnityBe risk free from here.

Correction is needed I'm going to TP here. Will re analyze when we reach the next bottom. #CiceroVIP #Fundamentals #IToldYouFirst

Good day, since my latest post https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/gZuk8KBe-BTC-UPDATE/ which I continuously give you accurate signal with 100% accuracy. Currently now I'm expecting a consolidation in 55K area since retail are nowhere to be seen and it's a good move for us whale to push the price even more and creating euphoria. Remember this is psychology game and we expert on this. Nevertheless I'm expecting price discovery near ATH soon. #Fundamental #CiceroVIP #Itoldyoufirst

Good Day, Since my latest signal https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/8pMvpcfD-BTC-UPDATE/ which I open long position BTCUSDT at 41.9K$ . I successfully provide you with consistently accurate signals. Now I'm going to TP half my position here and give a free ride to 52K$ with possible wick till 54.6K$ and I'm expecting a big pressure of sell in mid march. This should play out nicely days/weeks from here. I also expecting a little bit retracement from current price and it should bounce nicely at 46.4K with potential wick to 45.7K. Im also entering all my profit into alt. Since alt will perform extremely good near soon. #Fundamental #CiceroVip #Unity

Good Day, Based on my previous post https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/Vd4eATUw-BTC-UPDATE/ which I continuously predict the price range accurately. There are strong smart money plays behind the chart, and I can reassure you that this is the bottom for the micro and possibly macro (need to take note and watch out for march) . Nevertheless, I'm again opening long here and expecting BTC will reclaim new HH. This should play out nicely Days/Weekly from now. #CiceroVIP #Fundamental #IToldYouFirst

Good day. Based on my previous post https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/PAIwAbaV-BTC-UPDATE/ which I accurately time the micro bottom for the moment. I'm currently expecting upside movement in $BINANCE:BTCUSDT. Key resistance levels to watch: $43.2K and $43.8K. Closing half my position at $43.2K due to potential resistance and profit-taking. Anticipating rejection at $43.8K, a major resistance zone. Potential wick to $44.7K, the max pain area for short positions, but overall micro trend expected to be downwards. #CiceroVip #Fundamental #ItoldyoufirstThere are low chance bull pushing the price to $47K-$50K area. I didn't deny that chance and potentially give my other half position a free ride to that point.