Technical analysis by CiceroVip about Symbol ETH: Buy recommendation (10/22/2025)

Market Outlook: The "Coordinated Pivot" Thesis (Nov 1, 2025) This analysis outlines a high-probability thesis for a major policy pivot that could spark a significant reflationary, risk-on rotation in the markets. The central forecast, with a 55-70% probability, is a coordinated move involving a pause on tariffs and a 50 basis point (bp) interest rate cut. This would act as a "green light" for risk assets. Supporting Evidence & Observations The outlook is supported by several recent market developments: Technical Resistance: Gold was firmly rejected at the $2,450/oz level, which is consistent with historical resistance and typical behavior in a pre-reflation environment. Yield Breakout: The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield broke out from 4.55% to 4.68% between Oct 15-21. This move aligns more with the market repricing for growth rather than fearing a recession. Institutional Flows: A spike in crypto trading volume on Oct 11 showed signatures of institutional-scale accumulation, a pattern seen in previous risk-on cycles. The model also assumes that current tariffs are creating a drag on the economy (-0.5pp on GDP, -490k jobs) that policymakers will be motivated to reverse. Scenarios & Probabilities While the coordinated pivot is the base case, it's crucial to understand the alternative paths. 📈 Coordinated Pivot (55-70% Probability): A tariff pause plus a 50bp cut triggers synchronized relief. Expected Impact: A weaker USD and a strong risk-on rotation into cyclical stocks, small caps, and high-yield credit. Safe havens like gold and long-duration Treasuries would underperform. ⚖️ Fed Fights Alone (20% Probability): The Fed cuts by 50bp, but there is no tariff pause, creating a policy mismatch and a stagflationary tilt. Expected Impact: Commodities and TIPS would get a bid, along with quality defensive stocks. Trade-exposed cyclical assets would come under pressure. 📉 Policy Stalemate (10-15% Probability): No tariff pause and no significant rate cut leads to a high risk of a policy error and recession. Expected Impact: A classic risk-off move where investors flee to Treasuries, the USD, gold, and defensive stocks. Actionable Strategy & Key Triggers The recommended approach is to begin pre-positioning for the base case while managing risk until confirmation. Core Positioning: Start making incremental additions to cyclicals and high-yield (HY) credit. However, maintain hedges (USD, gold) until policy is officially confirmed. Optionality: Use call spreads on small caps and industrials to capture upside, while using protective puts on major indices to hedge through the November event window. Watch these triggers to confirm or invalidate the thesis: ✅ Bull Trigger: Explicit announcement of a tariff pause combined with guidance for a rate cut. This is the signal to fully commit to the risk-on stance. ⚠️ Neutral Trigger: A rate cut is announced, but there is no action on tariffs. This would require a reassessment of equity exposure. ❌ Bear Trigger: No rate cut is announced, and tariff rhetoric escalates. This is the signal to rotate fully into a risk-off, defensive posture.