Alvin_Kennedy

Gold Technical Analysis: Yesterday, gold bears once again retraced, with the lowest point reaching near 2152, close to Tuesday's retracement low around 2150. Simultaneously, the daily candle closed with a mixed pattern of bullish and bearish signals. Therefore, yesterday's retracement might have signaled two possibilities. Firstly, it could be a secondary bottoming correction for the bulls. However, the retracement amidst bearish candles might also indicate a crucial phase of consolidation for the bulls. Currently, gold support is maintained around the 2150 level. If the bullish scenario unfolds, this level could be a significant turning point for the bulls. Secondly, the bears might be eager to test their strength, especially after the substantial rise in bullish momentum recently, with gains of around $210. However, such a significant energy expenditure might necessitate a period of consolidation or correction, either through retracement or sideways movement, to gather strength again. The magnitude of retracement by the bulls so far isn't favorable for a breakthrough in the upward direction in the near future. Therefore, in the short term, a retracement and downward movement by the bears seem likely, with initial targets around 2140 and secondary targets near the psychological level of 2100. Therefore, in the short term we tend to adopt a bearish strategy until there is a clear outcome. Today, we focus on the previous battleground between 2150 and 2179. Technically, it appears to be a triangular consolidation pattern. With the weekly closing in, the final showdown between bulls and bears is imminent. The pressure point within this triangular formation is around 2170. Hence, we'll initially position ourselves for bearish opportunities around this level. Gold's rebound doesn't intimidate us; in fact, it provides better shorting opportunities. Holding the line at 2180, we remain steadfastly bearish. On the four-hour chart, prices are still close to the moving averages, with successive lower highs indicating a downward slope. The moving averages are also clearly turning downwards. Patience is required for market adjustments. We continue to monitor the 2145-2140 level. In summary, for today's short-term gold trading strategy, Jack suggests prioritizing short positions on rebounds while considering long positions on pullbacks as supplementary. Key resistance levels to watch on the upside are around 2170-2172, while crucial support levels on the downside are around 2150-2140. It's essential for all traders to manage their positions carefully, set strict stop losses.If you have any questions, you can discuss it with meComment: The New York Fed manufacturing index for March in the United States will be released and is expected to be -7.0, compared with -2.4 in February. At 21:15 Hong Kong time on Friday, the U.S. industrial output in February will be released, and the monthly rate is expected to be flat, after falling by 0.1% in January. At 22:00 Hong Kong time on Friday, the initial value of the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index in March will be released, and is expected to be 76.9. Investors will also be watching inflation-related data. The initial value of the University of Michigan's 1-year inflation expectation in March is expected to be 3.1%, compared with the previous value of 3.0%; the initial value of the University of Michigan's 5-10 year inflation expectation in March is expected to be 3.0%, compared with the previous value of 2.9%. A series of economic data released this week performed better than expected, showing a strong labor market and stubborn inflationary pressures. That could be a reason for the Fed to keep interest rates on hold next week, the fifth time in a row. In addition, these data have also suppressed expectations of interest rate cuts in June, thus placing certain restrictions on gold price bulls, causing gold prices to show a volatile and weak adjustment trend recently. Therefore, gold may continue to face corrections in the short term, and investors need to remain vigilant and pay close attention to market dynamics.Comment: The monthly rate of U.S. industrial output in February announced by the Federal Reserve was 0.1%, after the previous January data was revised down to -0.5%. Capacity utilization in January was revised down to 78.3% from 78.5%. Manufacturing output rose 0.8% in February after falling 1.1% in January. Utility output fell 7.5% in February after rising 7.4% in January. Mining output rose 2.2% in February after falling 2.9% in January.Comment: Goldman Sachs: It raised its average gold price forecast in 2024 from $2,090 per ounce to $2,180 per ounce, and will reach $2,300 per ounce by the end of the year.Comment: The 1-hour moving average of gold has started to turn downwards, coupled with downward trendline resistance. Moreover, after a false bullish move on Wednesday, gold has resumed its decline, indicating the absence of a strong one-sided market trend. It's advisable not to chase after further increases in positions. In the American session, we'll see if gold can break below the recent lows of the past two days. If it fails to do so, gold will likely continue its sideways movementComment: Gold technical analysis: Gold showed a volatile trend yesterday. During the European trading session, it once climbed above the 5-day line of 2168 and touched the 2172 line. However, the pressure on the upper short-term trend line failed to be effectively broken, causing the market to fall back and adjust again. From a technical point of view, the main rhythm of gold this week is retracement, and the trend is weak and downward. We are also more inclined to the retracement idea of ​​shorts. Before the bulls make a move in the short term, we still operate based on the short-term idea; Gold Day The K-line at the gold level closed two consecutive negative lines and fell under pressure. The K-line at the gold 15-minute and 30-minute levels fell under pressure. The K-line at the gold 1-hour and 2-hour levels broke and went short. The K-line at the gold 4-hour level held periodic resistance. Pressed down, the gold price has now entered a rather embarrassing situation. The high points at the top are constantly moving downwards, while the low points at the bottom are constantly revising upwards. The amplitude of the shock is getting narrower and narrower. The gold price is bound to choose a direction to break through. Before the gold price returns to 2180 again, the recent trend has been in a relatively weak situation, and the market outlook is more likely to fall below 2150! Currently, gold is moving towards the 2152 area and may further test the 2150 area. The overall trend is in line with expectations, and short-term adjustments have appeared again. On the hourly chart, gold is still oscillating within a triangle range, although it is heading downwards. If it falls below the 2150 support, the market may further extend to the 2145-40 area, or even near 2130 and 2120. However, the current bullish sentiment in the market has not completely dissipated. The short-term market is likely to stabilize near 2150, the lower edge of the triangle on the hourly chart, and wait for the Fed's interest rate decision next week in a volatile manner. If the short-term structural focus shifts downward, it will have a positive impact on the Fed's interest rate decision and operations next week. Taken together, the short-term operation of gold next week suggests that shorting will be the main focus, and callbacks will be supplemented by longs. The upper short-term focus will be on the 2170-2172 resistance level, and the lower short-term focus will be on the 2150-2140 support level.

Gold Technical Analysis, March 14 Gold stabilized and rebounded yesterday, closing higher after a single bearish candle on the daily chart. Instead of further decline, short-term strong consolidation replaced the pullback, representing a brief retracement within a single trading day. The following day saw a rapid recovery of lost ground, indicating a strong consolidation pattern despite not breaking to new highs. Some consolidation at higher levels is currently underway, suggesting potential for further upside breakout. On the 4-hour chart, the price stabilized after a short-term pullback from the upper Bollinger band to the lower band. The Bollinger bands are starting to contract, while the moving averages remain divergent, indicating normal correction rather than a shift to bearish oscillation. Short-term attention should be paid to a stabilization and subsequent high retest following sideways consolidation around the 2166 low. Currently, the short-term structure appears relatively strong, with limited downside retracement potential. In terms of market sentiment, Tuesday's bearish candle was the only one in the past twelve trading days. Following this single bearish candle, the market quickly turned bullish again. It's important to note that the bearish retracement following the nine consecutive bullish days is considered a corrective pullback. We have repeatedly emphasized that retracements are part of the correction process and do not necessarily signal a shift to a bearish trend. All bearish signals are likely temporary, so it's essential to maintain a positive long bias and not be discouraged by pullbacks. The consecutive profitable long positions also validate our analysis. Gold displayed a deep V pattern yesterday, with the bullish momentum continuing. The single bearish candle in gold's price movement is merely a correction within its overall uptrend. Gold remains in a bullish trend, with a long position recommended at 2168 in the morning session. The hourly chart for gold continues its upward trend, with support now around 2167, and moving averages around 2168. Gold experienced a morning pullback, finding support near the moving averages. Currently, the price is hovering around 2168, which also coincides with the convergence of the hourly moving average and the upward trend line, making it a key support level. Therefore, it's advisable to initiate long positions at 2168. Overall, for today's gold short-term trading strategy, I suggest focusing on buying on dips, with selling on rebounds as a secondary strategy. Key resistance levels to watch out for are around 2185-2188, while key support levels are around 2166-2168. Investors should manage their positions carefully and set strict stop-loss orders. If you have any pending orders and are unsure how to proceed, please feel free to contact me promptly!

In terms of short-term layout, this trading day will be long first and then short. Pay attention to 2168 to suppress shorts. Focus on the support position of 2147/42. At that time, make a backhand long depending on the situation. Analysis of the golden hour chart shows that the market fell as expected yesterday and reached the 2150 line below in the evening, which is in line with our expected trend. In the short term, it has fallen below the critical point of the 2168 line above. The short-term market has been damaged and will continue to fluctuate downward. Today, Above, we focus on the 2173 neckline and the U.S. reversal high of 2168. These two points suppressed the retracement in late trading. The daily line fell below the 5-day moving average. Below, it may fall below the short-term low of 2150. For further support, please refer to the 2140 line. It is recommended to set up the range. On the whole, today's short-term operation of gold suggests that the rebound is mainly short, and the callback is supplemented by long. The top short-term focus is on the 2168-2173 first-line resistance, and the bottom short-term focus is on the 2147-2145 first-line support. Friends, you must keep up with the rhythm. It is necessary to control positions and stop loss issues, set stop losses strictly, and never resist orders. The recent market turmoil has been relatively large, and opportunities and risks coexist. Control risks and gain profits.Comment: Yesterday, the technical aspect of gold ushered in a surge under the pressure of 2182 mark under the negative influence of cpi data. It suppressed the fall, fluctuated and broke the bottom to close. Looking at the daily chart, on the tenth day of the daily K, there was a big negative line decline, and the stochastic indicator fell from the golden cross. It has become a state of dead cross and adhesion; currently the dead cross has not fully exerted its downward force; once the dead cross is formed, it is expected to face a substantial correction;Comment: From the 4-hour chart, Bollinger Bands are currently running smoothly without opening up. The death cross of MA5-MA10 is forming a bearish trend. However, the daily, weekly, and monthly charts still indicate a bullish pattern. The daily chart has not yet formed a bearish pattern. Therefore, yesterday's decline should be considered as a temporary correction. We should not blindly amplify bearish sentiment and anticipate further declines. Thus, short positions should be approached cautiously, with a strict focus on defense. For short-term planning, it's advisable to initially consider long positions for the trading day, then short positions cautiously. Pay attention to resistance around 2166, and focus mainly on support levels at 2147-2142. Depending on the situation, consider taking a contrarian long position around those levelsTrade active: Short positions can be placed at 2171, and short positions can be added when it falls back to around 2165. The take-profit target can be at 2160Comment: Currently, the market prices in the European and American sessions show no signs of decline, remaining flat with no significant downward movement. The hourly chart has shown twelve consecutive candles without any decent bearish candles. Yesterday's decline appears to have been a one-off event, with no continuation seen intraday. At this point, interpreting this trend as weak is not advisable, and holding short positions may not be necessary. It seems that 2168-70 has now established itself as a support level. Therefore, if there's a pullback to this level, it might be a good opportunity to enter long positions. The initial target remains at 2182. Once 2182 is breached, the market may move towards 2188-90, and even reach the high point at 2195. In summary, for short-term gold trading strategies, it is suggested to focus primarily on long positions on rebound, with short positions being secondary. The key resistance levels to watch above are 2188-2190, while the key support levels below are 2168-2170.Comment: Strategy 1: Go short when gold rebounds from 2185-2188, stop loss 6 points, target around 2180-2175, break the position and look at the 2170 line; Strategy 2: Go long when gold pulls back to 2168-2170, stop loss by 6 points, target around 2180-2185, and look at the 2190 line if the position is broken;Comment: From the daily analysis, the top is suppressed near the 2177-85 line, and the bottom support is focused around 2158-60. If the support is reversed and relied on this position to continue to be bullish, the bullish trend remains unchanged, with strong suppression above 2195. The short-term bullish strong dividing line will focus on the 2150 mark. , before the daily level falls below this position, it will continue to maintain the main trend and the main rhythm remains unchanged. 1.Go long when the price retraces to the 2155-2158 level, with a stop loss at 2149, targeting the 2177-2185 level. 2.Short when the price rebounds to the 2183-2186 level, with a stop loss at 2193, targeting the 2165-2170 level.

Gold technical analysis: Gold fluctuated and fell today, and the trend was basically in line with expectations. In the early trading, it suggested that 2182 was short to 2170 to leave the market. In the evening, the negative data rebounded around 2180 and was short again at 2168. Short positions were added to 2152 to leave. The current market is in a bullish upward trend. The market is oscillating sideways, and the operation cannot be treated as an upward trend for the time being. The current situation is that the gold price has fallen below the long-standing moving average, and the moving average will also have the momentum to form a dead cross. The layout of the market outlook is very simple. If it falls below, then it will rebound high. As for the shorting point, first refer to the one-hour inflection point pressure of 2168, and then the key platform pressure level of 2173 Gold's 1-hour moving average has begun to turn, and the upward breakthrough has not yet stood firm. Gold's 1-hour surge has fallen back to close the upper shadow line. The gold shorts have begun to exert their strength. The bulls can no longer completely control the home court. The gold shorts are now also going to show off their power. , gold fell and harvested as expected, gold fell after rising, the bulls lacked momentum, and the US rebound continued to dry up. On the whole, today's short-term operation of gold suggests that the rebound is mainly short, and the callback is supplemented by long. The top short-term focus is on the 2168-2173 first-line resistance, and the bottom short-term focus is on the 2147-2145 first-line support. Friends, you must keep up with the rhythm. It is necessary to control positions and stop loss issues, set stop losses strictly, and never resist orders. The recent market turmoil has been relatively large, and opportunities and risks coexist. Control risks and gain profits. 🎯Strategy 1: Go short when gold rebounds near 2168-2170, stop loss 6 points, target around 2155-2150, break the position and look at the 2145 line; 🎯Strategy 2: Go long when gold pulls back around 2145-2147, stop loss by 6 points, target around 2155-2160, and look at the 2165 line if the position is broken;Trade active: After the gold price falls and breaks through 2152, you can go short with the target set to 2147