Technical analysis by TradeM_Gold_I about Symbol BTC on 12/30/2025

BTC Outlook Today Dec 30, 2025 1. Market Structure Analysis The price action shows a highly volatile environment with frequent shifts in momentum: Recent Bullish Impulse: Price experienced a sharp rally toward the $90,000 psychological level, creating a CHoCH (Change of Character) to the upside and breaking previous resistance levels. The Sharp Reversal: After peaking near $90k, the market saw a rapid decline, breaking local structures to the downside. Current State: Price is currently consolidating near a local bottom around $87,266. It is hovering just below a minor bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG), indicating a struggle between buyers and sellers at this level. 2. Key Technical Indicators Fair Value Gaps (FVG): * Bearish Zones: A large cluster of red FVGs sits between $88,200 and $89,500. This area represents significant "unfilled" sell orders. Bullish Zone: A small teal FVG is visible just above the current price, acting as immediate overhead resistance. Fibonacci Retracement Levels: The Fibonacci tool is drawn from the recent high to the recent low: 0.5 Level ($88,206): Aligns with the start of the heavy bearish FVG. 0.618 Golden Pocket ($88,561): This is the "Premium" zone where institutional sellers are most likely to re-enter. Volume: Significant volume spikes are visible during the recent crash, suggesting that the move was driven by high-conviction selling. 3. Trading Scenarios Scenario A: The Bearish Retest (Higher Probability) Strategy: Wait for price to pull back into the $88,200 – $88,600 zone (0.5 to 0.618 Fib levels). Expectation: Since the overall structure has shifted bearish on this timeframe, a "retest and reject" of these FVGs would provide a high-probability short entry targeting the $86,000 liquidity pool. Scenario B: Consolidation and Breakout Strategy: Monitor the current consolidation range between $86,800 and $87,600. Expectation: If Bitcoin fails to bounce into the premium zones and instead breaks below the recent wick low ($86,800), expect an immediate continuation toward lower support levels. 4. Summary for Traders The trend is currently Bearish following the rejection from the $90k area. The market is "discounted" at the moment, but the most logical move for "Smart Money" is to wait for a retracement into the red FVG zones to distribute more sell orders before the next leg down.