Technical analysis by minno91 about Symbol BTC: Sell recommendation (12/29/2025)

A) Market Summary BTC is back in calmer waters around 88–90k after the weekend flush did its job and cleaned out most downside liquidation clusters below 85k. With weak hands already rinsed, price is now naturally gravitating back toward the 90k resistance / liquidity magnet. Derivatives remain large but not euphoric — no fresh parabolic OI expansion. Instead, this looks like continued deleveraging digestion after recent flash-crash episodes, not the start of a new impulsive leg. Translation: the market is tired, not dead. ⸻ B) Trade Decision A slightly aggressive short fade near 90k, only if price taps into the liquidity zone. No chase, no early shorts, no hero trades. ⸻ C) Intraday Setup (Only on 89.8–90.5k Test) •Direction: Short •Entry (limit zone): 89,800 – 90,200 •Stop-loss: Above 91,200 (Above the nearest visible upside liquidity block) Targets: •TP1: 88,300 – 88,800 •TP2: 86,800 – 87,200 •R:R: ~1 : 2.0 – 1 : 2.5 •Time validity: Today’s EU + US session only After 22:00 CET → setup expires ⸻ D) Trade Logic (Why Fading 90k Makes Sense Here) •Macro context: Today’s macro calendar is relatively light — no FOMC, no NFP, no nuclear-grade data. That shifts intraday price action back toward derivatives positioning, ETF flows, and local order flow, rather than macro shocks. •Market structure & liquidity: After the recent flush, BTC is holding above ~85.5k, a key demand / MA zone referenced in prior analyses. Price is now oscillating below 90k, a level that historically struggles to hold closes. This is a textbook range-top environment, ideal for a mean-reversion fade, not blind breakout chasing. •Liquidation dynamics: The 84.5–85.5k downside liquidation cluster has already been fully swept. The next major liquidity magnet sits at 89.8–90.2k, directly above current price — a natural intraday target for stop-hunts before a pullback. •Derivatives & positioning: Open interest remains elevated but is no longer expanding aggressively after Q4 deleveraging. A push into 90k is therefore more likely to overload late longs and trigger a short-term squeeze, which provides fuel for a fade, not confirmation of a new trend leg. •Order book – confirmation / warning: On Binance BTCUSDT, watch for: •Stable sell walls •Absorption of aggressive market buys around 89.8–90.2k That behavior supports the fade thesis. If instead: •Ask walls get pulled •Hidden bids step in aggressively above 89k → this is likely continuation / breakout behavior, not a fade. Step aside. ⸻ E) Invalidation Rules (When the Short Is Wrong) Price-based •The intraday short is invalid if BTC holds a 15M / 1H close above 91,200 and starts printing higher lows above 90k. That means 90k is no longer a liquidity trap — it’s turning into support. Time-based •If 89.8–90.5k is never tested today and BTC stays stuck in the 87–89k mid-range, the setup expires. No auto-carry to tomorrow — heatmaps and OI can change overnight. Macro-based •Any unexpected macro headline (Fed commentary, ETF regulation news, major geopolitical shock) that spikes volatility → pause the plan. In those moments, 90k can flip from fade zone to launchpad. Order-book-based •If, at 90k, large ask walls disappear and the book flips into a strong bid imbalance, the short is invalid. •If already filled and you see persistent aggressive buying absorbing every dip, reduce risk quickly or exit. ⸻ Risk Management Note For this single fade setup, risk is best capped at ~0.5–0.7% of account. That keeps dry powder available in case the US session delivers a cleaner second opportunity. ⸻ Bottom line: 90k is a liquidity magnet, not a guaranteed ceiling — but until proven otherwise, it’s a sell-the-reaction level, not a place to FOMO long. Fade smart. Respect invalidation. Let the market prove you wrong — not your ego.