Technical analysis by minno91 about Symbol BTC: Buy recommendation (12/23/2025)

A) Market Summary BTC is trading around 88.5–89k early Tuesday after getting rejected at 90k (again). Price is stuck inside a wide daily range of 84–95k, basically doing cardio but going nowhere. At 14:30 CET, we get the US macro triple boss fight: •GDP (2nd estimate) •Durable Goods Orders •Corporate Profits Translation: wick city. Big candles, fakeouts, chaos. This is not a “hold and pray” day — it’s a quick liquidity trade before the storm. ⸻ B) Trade Decision ✅ Intraday trade available A conservative mean-reversion long from a liquidity pocket below Asia lows, with a hard time stop before 14:30 CET. We take the bounce — we do not marry the position. ⸻ C) Intraday Setup (BTCUSDT Perps – Binance / Bybit) •Direction: Long •Entry (limit): 87,000 •Stop-loss: 85,600 •Take-profit: 89,800 •R:R: ~2 : 1 Time Rules (non-negotiable): •Limit valid until 14:00 CET •If filled, position must be closed or SL moved to BE by 14:20 CET •No exposure into 14:30 CET macro roulette ⸻ D) Trade Logic (Why This Isn’t Random Gambling) •Macro context (the clock matters): Today’s US data regularly causes violent moves in DXY, yields, and BTC. This trade is designed as a pre-event technical play, not a hero trade through news. •Structure & liquidity: BTC is sitting in the middle of a multi-week range (84–95k). 4H / 1H structure shows lower highs below 90k, with a well-defined support zone around 86.5–87.5k — exactly where short-term long stops are hiding. •Derivatives & liquidations: CoinGlass shows BTC futures OI around $58–60B — still elevated, but partially reset. This favors an intraday stop-hunt rather than a full trend shift. Liquidation heatmap highlights long-liq clusters at 86.5–87.5k, while short-liq clusters sit above 92k. •Funding & sentiment: Funding is slightly positive to neutral, sentiment cautious rather than euphoric. That’s ideal for range behavior: flush liquidity → bounce → back to balance. •Order book (confirmation only): Binance & Bybit order books show stacked bids around 86.8–87.3k and solid asks near 89.5–90k. This supports a scenario where a dip into 87k gets absorbed, followed by a push back toward the sell walls. ⸻ E) Invalidation Rules (Read This Before You Click Buy) Price-based •Setup is invalid if a 1H candle closes below 85,500 → Liquidity support failed, risk shifts toward 84k or lower. •Cancel the 87k limit if BTC breaks and holds above 90,500 on 1H → Context flips to breakout, not mean reversion. Time-based •If the 87k limit is not filled by 14:00 CET, cancel it. •If in the trade and price fails to bounce above 88.5k by 14:20 CET, close manually. We do not babysit trades into macro spikes. Macro-based •Any surprise macro headline (Fed comment, geopolitical shock) before 14:30 CET with aggressive DXY/index moves → trade is invalid, reduce or don’t enter. Order-book-based •Before entry: If bid clusters near 87k disappear and large asks stack aggressively above price → do not enter. •After entry: If price taps 87k, order book stays thin, and BTC slices through 86k with volume → respect the SL. No moving stops. No adding. No coping. ⸻ Final Thought This is a “touch the liquidity, grab the bounce, get out” type of trade. We’re trading time + structure, not vibes. Fast in, fast out — and flat before the fireworks 🎆closed early as part of the plan