Technical analysis by MonoCoinSignal about Symbol BTC: Sell recommendation (12/16/2025)

Right now, we are sitting at $87,158, which puts us smack in the middle of equilibrium between the recent swing high at $94,555 and the swing low at $85,073. This isn’t just a random spot on the chart; it’s a critical decision point where the market structure is giving us distinct clues. The big development here is the CHoCH Bearish that just confirmed. For those tracking Smart Money Concepts, that is a Change of Character to the downside, meaning we have broken the sequence of higher lows. The bullish structure that held for weeks has flipped, and we need to adjust our playbook accordingly. Let’s talk technical confluence, because when you layer the indicators, the story gets very specific. Price is trading below all three major EMAs (20, 50, and 200), creating a bearish alignment across the board. When you are below your moving average stack like this, the path of least resistance is typically down. The MACD confirms this with a deeply bearish reading of -1087, and the gap between the signal lines is widening—momentum is pointing south with conviction. However, this is where the setup gets tricky and why you need to think two moves ahead. The RSI is hovering around 34, approaching oversold territory, and the most recent candle printed a massive 64.5% lower wick. That tells us someone stepped in to buy "fair value" with size. We are not quite at panic levels, but we are close enough that a relief bounce is absolutely on the table. This creates a tension in the market: The structure says "sell," but the immediate momentum says "bounce." The tie-breaker here is the ADX, which is sitting at 62.7. This signals a powerful trending environment. This isn't choppy, directionless price action; when ADX is above 60, trends tend to persist. So, while the RSI warns of a bounce, the ADX says do not fight the trend without clear confirmation. So, here is the roadmap. The primary scenario favors a rejection at resistance. Any relief bounce from here likely runs straight into the Bearish Order Block (Supply Zone) between $89,429 and $90,617. This area is stacked with confluence: it contains unfilled sell orders, a bearish FVG, and sits just below the premium zone threshold. If we see price rally into that $89k–$90k region, it becomes a high-probability short opportunity. We would be looking for rejection signals there to target the swing low at $85,073. Break that level, and we are looking at the Bullish Order Block demand zone between $83,786 and $86,625, where I’d expect serious buying interest to finally emerge. If you are looking to take a trade, patience is your edge here. Shorting into the hole at $87k with an oversold RSI is risky. The better risk-adjusted play is waiting for that bounce into the $88,500–$90,000 range. Your invalidation level (stop loss) is a 4H close above $90,617. If price closes above that level, it negates the bearish order block and invalidates the supply thesis. On the flip side, if the bulls manage to reclaim $91,066 (the premium zone threshold), it triggers a CHoCH Bullish reversal. That would flip the entire structure back in favor of the bulls, targeting $94,185. But right now, with the volume running 2x the average and the internal bias sitting at neutral/bearish, that is the lower probability path. Bottom line: The structure favors downside continuation, but only after a potential relief bounce. We have a confirmed trend shift, bearish EMA stacks, and strong volume on the decline. Don't get trapped shorting the bottom of the range, and don't get trapped longing a "dead cat" bounce. Wait for the test of supply at $90k, watch for the rejection, and trade the path of least resistance. Confidence is sitting at roughly 75% on the bearish continuation due to the structural damage, but the oversold conditions demand we wait for better entry prices.Yesterday I explicitly warned you not to chase shorts in the hole at $87k. I told you the structure was bearish but the momentum was oversold, and that we needed a relief bounce to reset the board. What happened? Bitcoin did exactly that. We pushed up to $90,320, running right into that Bearish Order Block and supply zone we mapped out, only to immediately reject and collapse right back down to equilibrium around $87,000. If you followed the playbook, you didn't get trapped longing the pump, and you had a perfect opportunity to fade that move right at resistance. Now the dust has settled, and the structure has evolved from a simple downtrend into a massive Converging Wedge. We are sitting at $86,885, essentially flat from yesterday’s close, but the walls are closing in. We have a 9-touch ascending support trendline holding the floor at $85,522 and a 20-touch descending resistance line capping us at $90,637. The range has tightened to just $5,114. This is textbook compression. Volatility is loading for the next big leg. Let’s look at the internals because the momentum picture has shifted since the rejection. The ADX has dropped from 62.7 to 46.2. The trend is still strong, but the intensity is cooling off as we consolidate inside this wedge. More interestingly, the MACD is showing early signs of bullish divergence, moving from -1087 to -745 while price stayed flat. That is not a buy signal yet. It’s just a sign that the aggressive selling pressure is taking a breather after slamming price down from that $90k wick. The RSI is sitting at 34, still hovering in oversold territory, and the recent candle printed a 45.6% lower wick. Buyers are still defending the bottom of this wedge. So what is the play now? The "easy" trade fading the bounce is done. Now we are in the squeeze. The Bearish Case (Primary): The rejection from $90,320 confirms that bears are defending the supply zone aggressively. We are currently stuck at equilibrium. Any bounce from here likely hits a brick wall at the confluence of the descending resistance and the Bearish Order Block between $89,500 and $90,666. If we reject there again, the target is the wedge support at $85,522. A 4H close below that support line is the kill shot. It opens the trapdoor to the Bullish Order Block at $84,030 and likely lower. The Bullish Case (Alternate): For the bulls to regain control, they need to do more than just wick up like they did today. They need a decisive 4H close above $91,091. That is the line in the sand. We saw today that price can go near there, but it can't stay there. Until we close above that level to confirm a CHoCH Bullish, every rally is just a lower high inside the wedge. The Setup: Patience is your edge again. The volume has dropped significantly (currently ~$2,500 vs average ~$3,000). This is typical for wedge consolidation and tells me the next move will be explosive. If you are Bearish: Wait for a tap of the $89,500–$90,666 zone. Use the descending trendline as your shield. Stop loss goes strictly above $90,666. If you are Bullish: Do not front-run this. Wait for the wedge to break and price to reclaim $91,091 on a closing basis. Bottom Line: The rejection from $90,320 validated our bearish supply thesis perfectly. Now we wait for the wedge to break. The structure remains bearish as long as we are below $91k, but the compression suggests a violent move is imminent. We caught the top. Now let's catch the break. Are you betting on the wedge support holding, or is $85k about to give way? 👇