Technical analysis by Raphael_TraderGOLD about Symbol BTC: Buy recommendation (12/15/2025)

🔹 MARKET BRIEFING – BTC/USD (1H) Market State: – Bitcoin is once again trading inside a repeating range structure, similar to the previous consolidation phases marked (1 → 3). – Price has just rebounded from the lower demand area and is now holding above short-term support, while still trading below the key moving averages, keeping the broader structure neutral-to-corrective. Key Technical Levels: – Demand / Base Zone: 87,800 – 88,600 – Mid-Range Reaction Level: 90,000 – 90,300 – Major Resistance / Supply Zone: 93,000 – 93,500 – The projected move toward zone (4) aligns with prior range highs and unfilled liquidity. 🌍 Macro Context – Why This Remains a Range, Not a Breakout – Federal Reserve: Policy expectations remain stable with no immediate liquidity expansion signal. This limits impulsive upside in risk assets. – Liquidity Conditions: The recent downside move cleared leveraged longs, enabling a technical rebound, but macro liquidity is not supportive of trend continuation yet. – Risk Sentiment: Broader markets continue to show consolidation behavior, reinforcing mean-reversion rather than directional conviction. Next Move: – A controlled push toward 90,000–90,300 is likely as part of a corrective recovery. – Extension toward the 93,000–93,500 resistance zone is possible, but this area is expected to act as a decision point, not an automatic breakout. – Only acceptance above 93,500 would invalidate the range-based thesis and shift the bias toward trend continuation. Bottom Line: – Bitcoin is following a structured, repeating range pattern, not randomness. – Until macro conditions shift, rallies should be viewed as range extensions into resistance, not confirmed trend reversals.Bitcoin Market Update Bitcoin did not follow yesterday’s projected path, and that deviation is important to understand rather than ignore. The sharp sell-off we saw was not random price action, but a liquidity-driven event amplified by macro conditions and market positioning. Why BTC dropped so aggressively The sell-off was triggered by a combination of factors: - Macro pressure: Renewed uncertainty around the timing of Fed rate cuts pushed U.S. yields and the dollar higher intraday, temporarily weighing on all risk assets, including crypto. - Positioning imbalance: After several failed upside attempts, BTC was heavily long-biased on lower timeframes. This made the market vulnerable to a liquidation cascade once key supports broke. - ETF-related flows: While spot BTC ETFs continue to absorb supply over time, short-term flows do not prevent intraday liquidations. Weak hands were flushed before stronger buyers stepped in. This type of move is typical in crypto a sharp downside expansion to reset leverage, not the start of a sustained bearish trend. Current structure: Reset → Accumulation After the sell-off, price is now stabilizing and compressing near a well-defined support area. Volatility has expanded and is now starting to contract, which usually signals transition from distribution into accumulation. Instead of immediate continuation lower, BTC is showing overlapping candles and reduced momentum — classic signs of range-building. Updated outlook The highest-probability scenario from here is sideways consolidation, not impulsive continuation in either direction. The market needs time to rebuild liquidity and wait for the next macro catalyst. A clean break will require: Either renewed risk-on sentiment driven by softer macro data or easing financial conditions Or clear confirmation that buyers are reclaiming key levels with acceptance, not just wicks Until then, expect choppy price action inside a defined range. Trader guidance This is not an environment for prediction or emotional trading. Overtrading during accumulation phases is how most traders give profits back. Patience is the edge here let the range define itself, wait for confirmation, and allow the market to reveal its next direction. Bitcoin hasn’t broken structurally it has reset. Consolidation comes first. Expansion comes later.