Technical analysis by ThetaNomad about Symbol AVAX: Buy recommendation (12/11/2025)

Traders, I believe AVAX is getting ready to load a squeeze train upwards. This move might be quick, fast and harsh, the kind of reversal that catches traders off guard and leaves late shorts wondering what just happened. Price has returned to a deep support zone where two separate Fibonacci retracements align. The 0.786 level from the A to B leg sits exactly at the current price. The 0.886 level from the C to D leg lands in the same place. When two independent fib legs converge like this, it often marks a high interest area where stronger hands quietly position and wait. Before reaching this zone the market swept the Sunday wick. Sunday wicks are created during thin weekend volume without meaningful institutional presence. Because they form on weak liquidity, the market tends to revisit and clear them once real volume returns. Sweeping this wick removed weak weekend longs, cleaned the structure and collected liquidity needed for a sustained move. Order Flow is lining up. Spot buyers are absorbing selling while perp traders are shorting into the lows. Spot CVD is rising which shows genuine demand. Both coin margined and stablecoin margined CVD are falling which shows leveraged shorts pressing down. Net Shorts are increasing at the bottom. Open Interest is rising at the same time. This confirms new short positions are opening rather than closing. When spot accumulation meets leveraged short pressure at deep fib support, the stage is set for a squeeze. The first target above is the 1.618 extension of the A to B leg. This is the expected continuation level after a deep 0.786 retracement. It also aligns with a higher time frame 0.786 level not shown here to keep the chart clean. Confluence at the target strengthens its gravitational pull. AVAX has swept liquidity, tapped strong fib confluence and attracted late shorts into the structure. All the ingredients for a fast upside squeeze are present. Summary • Two fib retracements meet at the current level • Sunday wick swept which removes weak weekend positions • Spot CVD rising which shows real buying • Perp CVD falling which shows leveraged short pressure • Net Shorts rising at the lows • Open Interest rising which confirms new shorts opening • Squeeze conditions forming • First target is the 1.618 extension of A to B • This target aligns with a higher time frame 0.786 Final Thought The market does not shout its intentions. It whispers through structure, flow and confluence. Deep retracements, cleared liquidity and patient accumulation often appear right before sudden expansion. AVAX feels ready to shift tone and when it does, the shorts gathered at the lows may find themselves riding the squeeze train the wrong way. Targets and Invalidation My first target is 17.115, which aligns with the 1.618 extension of the A to B leg and fits the structure of a classic deep retracement continuation. My second target is 22.5, a level that connects beautifully with mid-range liquidity left behind on the way down and acts as a natural expansion point once the first target is cleared. For the more mid to long term, I am watching 31.25, which sits directly inside a higher time frame inefficiency zone and marks the beginning of true trend continuation rather than a simple corrective squeeze. Invalidation sits cleanly at 12.275, the low of point A. If price breaks below that level, the structure of the current idea collapses and the setup no longer fits the narrative of a squeeze. Until that level is violated, the bullish structure remains intact and the path of least resistance stays upward. ---------------- If you like this analysis, feel free to leave a like or a comment. I am not asking for money and I am not trying to sell anything. I simply enjoy helping people look through the noise and understand the structure beneath the chaos.