Technical analysis by Thorne- about Symbol BTC: Buy recommendation (12/8/2025)

1. Policy Winds: Rate Cut Expectations Anchored, Liquidity Easing Underpins Markets The Federal Reserve’s December FOMC meeting has entered the final phase of deliberation. Data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut has risen to 89%. Dovish officials continue to release easing signals, emphasizing that a weak labor market and falling inflation have created room for policy adjustments. Bitcoin maintains a strong negative correlation of -0.72 with the U.S. Dollar Index. Recently, the dollar index broke below the key support level of 101, opening up space for a crypto asset rebound. More critically, the global crypto regulatory framework is trending toward "clarification": the U.S. SEC’s compliance review of spot ETFs has entered a normalized phase, and regulatory certainty has increased following the implementation of the EU’s MiCA regulation. Policy uncertainty that previously suppressed the market has gradually been digested, forming a dual policy support of "negative factors fully priced in + easing expectations." -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2. Technical Indicators: Oversold Recovery Confirmed, Solid Support System The $91,110 level lies in a critical technical turning range: - On the weekly chart, the RSI has rebounded to 39, moving out of the extreme oversold zone. A classic bottoming pattern of "long lower shadow + descending wedge bottom support" has formed, and historical data shows that the probability of a short-term rebound after such a structure exceeds 75%. - On the daily chart, the MACD green histogram continues to narrow, with the fast and slow lines approaching a golden cross. The downward slope of the 15-day EMA ($91,500) has slowed, indicating a gradual exhaustion of selling pressure. The support system offers dual protection: - Immediate support at $90,000 (recent high-volume trading zone). - Strong support at $88,000 (200-hour SMA). - Resonant support at $83,680, where the macro upward trend line aligns with the 100-week SMA, providing ample technical safety margin. On the resistance side, focus on the dense supply zone of $93,000-$96,000. A breakthrough will open up rebound space toward $98,000. Bitcoin trading strategy buy：90000-91000 tp:92000-93000-96000 sl：89000Confirming the bullish signal