Technical analysis by DatTong about Symbol BTC: Buy recommendation (11/18/2025)

A. Onchain current landscape: - MVRV Ratio: Dropped from 1.83 to 1.64 - Well below the 2.0 "heated market" threshold - Far from the 3.5 "overheated" danger zone Interpretation: Market is NOT overextended; substantial upside room remains - Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL): Declined from 0.45 to 0.39 Entered "Anxiety" zone, trending toward "Fear". Historically, NUPL below 0.40 marks excellent accumulation zones Signal: Weak hands being shaken out, strong hands accumulating B. Exchange Flow Dynamics: Smart Money is Accumulating Critical Pattern Observed: - Nov 11: -2,579 BTC (outflow - accumulation) - Nov 12: -659 BTC (outflow - accumulation) - Nov 13-14: +777 BTC, +5992 BTC (large inflows during panic selling) - Nov 15-16: Mixed flows, continued selling pressure - Nov 17: -4,036 BTC massive outflow Analysis: The -4,036 BTC outflow on Nov 17, as price stabilized around $92k, is the first reversal signal. Smart money accumulated aggressively at depressed prices while retail capitulated. C. SOPR Analysis: Capitulation in Progress Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) Timeline: - Nov 11-12: Above 1.0 (healthy profit-taking) - Nov 13-17: Below 1.0 (0.989-0.994) Critical Insight: When SOPR falls below 1.0, it means investors are selling at a loss, a classic capitulation signal. This typically marks local bottoms and excellent entry points for patient buyers. It means, we need to be patient and accumulate on key supporting levels. D. Supply Dynamics: Weak Hands Exiting Supply in Profit: Dropped from 73.6% to 64.5% 35.5% of BTC supply is now underwater (up from 26.4%) This reset creates a stronger foundation for the next leg up Investors who bought near the top are capitulating, clearing sell pressure Whale Accumulation: Follow the Smart Money BTC whales added ~30,000 BTC during the dip Value: ~$3 bln in fresh whale accumulation E. Technical levels: - Strong supporting zone: 85000-88000. - Confluence with descending channel's lower bound. F. The Edge: While headlines scream "crypto winter" and retail capitulates in fear, seasoned investors recognize this as a gift, a chance to accumulate a scarce, institutional-grade asset at a 26-30% discount from all-time highs, with clear onchain evidence of smart money accumulation. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at ExnessMarket found support around 85500 and bounced toward the descending channel's upper bound.