Technical analysis by Thorne- about Symbol BTC: Buy recommendation (12/3/2025)

1.Macroeconomic Policy: Rising Rate-Cut Expectations, Liquidity Easing Expectations Underpin the Market As the Federal Reserve's December monetary policy meeting approaches, the market's expectation of a rate cut has soared from 32.7% in late November to 87%, with nearly a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut. Despite lingering divisions within the Federal Reserve, dovish officials have continuously released easing signals. Core officials including Christopher Waller and Mary Daly have explicitly endorsed a December rate cut. Coupled with the slowing trend of U.S. economic data, weakened consumption momentum and lackluster manufacturing performance provide practical justification for the rate cut. This expectation of liquidity easing has boosted risk appetite. The three major U.S. stock indexes have all closed higher recently, and Bitcoin has directly benefited from its 0.75 correlation with these indexes. Meanwhile, the policy uncertainty that previously suppressed the market has been fully absorbed amid the sharp decline, and the current macroeconomic environment has created favorable conditions for Bitcoin's short-term rebound. 2. Capital Flows: Short Squeezes + Bargain-Hunting Capital Inflow, Eased Selling Pressure The short-term capital landscape has shown clear bullish signals. Since Bitcoin rebounded from its low of $83,800, the cumulative scale of short squeezes has exceeded $300 million. A large number of passive purchases from stop-loss orders have formed a short - squeezing effect. Off-exchange capital has responded actively: the volume of over-the-counter (OTC) orders for 50 BTC or more per transaction has tripled compared with the previous week. Exchanges recorded a net outflow of over 4,200 BTC within 24 hours, with chips concentrating in the hands of short-term holders, leading to a significant reduction in immediate selling pressure. Although U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a cumulative outflow of $4.6 billion over the past month, they posted a net inflow of $70 million last week. This indicates that the pace of institutional selling has slowed marginally, and the capital side has demonstrated a positive characteristic of "short-term improvement + long-term to be verified".