Technical analysis by Thorne- about Symbol BTC: Buy recommendation (11/26/2025)

The "accumulation signal" of funds on the blockchain is prominent, and the selling pressure has abated, providing momentum for the bulls. The lock-up rate of long-term holders (LTH) has increased: In the past 30 days, the selling pressure of long-term holders with holdings exceeding 155 days has decreased by 42% compared to the previous period. The proportion of "dormant coins" (holdings exceeding 1 year) on the blockchain has risen to 68.3%, reaching a 3-month high. This indicates that the panic selling in the early stage is coming to an end, core holdings are gradually accumulating, and the selling pressure in the market has significantly weakened, providing a fundamental support for the price rebound. The clear trend of net outflow from exchanges is evident: In the past 7 days, the cumulative net outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges was 18,000 BTC. Among them, the two major exchange platforms, Coinbase and Binance, accounted for over 80% of the net outflow. The blockchain data shows that large amounts of funds (≥100 BTC) transferred from exchanges were mostly transferred to cold wallets for long-term storage rather than short-term trading accounts, reflecting the recognition of the current price by institutions, and the "exit" of funds has turned into "accumulation", indirectly reducing the market selling pressure. The selling pressure from miners has eased: Currently, the price of Bitcoin (88,000 USD) is approximately 6.7% higher than the average production cost line for miners (82,500 USD). The daily income of miners has rebounded to 12,000 USD, an increase of 35% compared to the low point in October. The miner sell pressure index (Miner Sell Pressure Index) has dropped from 0.8 to 0.4 (below 0.5 indicates low selling pressure), indicating that the miners' reluctance to sell has increased, further consolidating the bottom support. Bitcoin trading strategy buy：85500-86500 tp:87500-88500-90000 sl：84500The expectation of interest rate cuts has cooled down, exerting pressure on risky assets. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has sharply dropped from nearly 100% three weeks ago to 33%. Powell's hawkish stance emphasized "maintaining higher interest rates for a longer period", and the re-pricing of capital costs has put pressure on global risky assets. The high correlation of Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index at 0.78 makes it difficult for Bitcoin to remain unaffected alone.