Technical analysis by osodatsismoso about Symbol BTC: Buy recommendation (11/20/2025)

📘 Bitcoin Speculative Cycle (2026 Potential move I see) 1. Recognize the Setup Liquidity conditions: Track central bank easing, stablecoin issuance, and ETF inflows. These are the fuel. Narratives: Watch for hype drivers (AI + blockchain, tokenized real‑world assets, sovereign adoption). Sentiment signals: Social media buzz, Google Trends, and retail inflows often spike before parabolic moves. 2. Identify the Expansion Phase Price action: BTC breaks prior cycle highs with strong volume. On‑chain metrics: Rising active addresses, increasing exchange inflows, and high leverage in futures. ETF/Institutional flows: Monitor daily net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs — they magnify moves. 3. Ride the Momentum Entry strategy: Scale in during confirmed uptrend (higher highs, higher lows). Risk management: Use stop‑losses or hedge with stablecoins; never go all‑in. Position sizing: Keep leverage modest speculative cycles punish overexposure. 4. Spot the Peak Excessive leverage: Funding rates go extreme, perpetual swaps show unsustainable longs. Retail mania: Everyone is talking about BTC, mainstream media runs “get rich quick” stories. On‑chain warnings: Whales start sending coins to exchanges, signaling distribution. 5. Prepare for the Collapse Exit strategy: Scale out when parabolic moves stall; don’t wait for the top tick. Liquidity drains: Watch stablecoin redemptions and ETF outflows they trigger cascades. Policy shocks: Rate hikes or regulatory crackdowns can flip sentiment instantly. 6. Survive and Reset Capital preservation: Rotate into cash or defensive assets once the downtrend is confirmed. Audit your trades: Document entries/exits to refine your playbook for the next cycle. Re‑accumulate: Buy back BTC only after capitulation signs (low volume, despair, long consolidation). 🛠 Tools I used to track this; On‑chain dashboards: Glassnode, CryptoQuant (free tiers give useful signals). ETF flow trackers: Daily inflows/outflows for spot BTC ETFs. Stablecoin supply charts: USDT/USDC issuance as shadow liquidity indicators. Funding rate monitors: Binance, Bybit, Deribit for leverage extremes.Without this theory, my prediction would be 180k still as initial top; then stablecoins flowing to alts to inflate alts (not memes) then everyone will chase the pump while whales and insti slowly drawing out money as retail fills it until market crashes at 228k which is too high as a prediction but can happen if greed and mvrvz is not bubbling at 180k-200k