Technical analysis by afurs1 about Symbol BTC: Buy recommendation (11/11/2025)

Bitcoin has had a challenging year in 2025, as the market has proven to be extremely choppy, volatile, and frustrating for many investors. Following the massive liquidation event in October—followed by a secondary drop below $100K—many crypto investors have likely begun to lose confidence in this asset class and are now seeking opportunities elsewhere. While I believe we are nearing the end of the broader market cycle, the current trajectory and sentiment suggest that we have not yet reached the extreme greed levels seen in previous peaks. Many altcoins have been decimated, and even the major cryptocurrencies have shown significant weakness, struggling to set any meaningful new all-time highs. Now, I want to analyze the current price action through two theoretical lenses: Elliott Wave Theory and Auction Theory. Elliott Wave Perspective From an Elliott Wave standpoint, I believe we are witnessing what is known as a complex W–X–Y–X–Z correction. Essentially, this pattern represents a prolonged sideways pullback where price action forms a series of measured moves within a range. Each of these moves consists of a three-wave (A–B–C) structure. The completion points of these waves can be projected using trend-based Fibonacci extensions to identify symmetrical move targets. When multiple A–B–C structures occur in sequence, they can form a larger W–X–Y–X–Z corrective pattern, with each letter representing the end of a smaller A–B–C correction. To illustrate this, I’ve labeled each minor A–B–C correction with its corresponding Fibonacci projection, showing a clearly defined structure filled with several measured move targets. This pattern is significant because it represents the largest form of correction within Elliott Wave theory, indicating a major decision point for price action. A breakdown from here could signal a Wyckoff distribution pattern, potentially leading to much lower prices. However, if this correction completes and resolves to the upside, the price should resume movement in the direction of the broader trend—which remains upward. Auction Theory Perspective From an Auction Theory perspective, I aim to analyze the trading volume within this range to establish the Low Value, Fair Value, and High Value areas. Auction Theory suggests that when price breaks above a high but fails to sustain momentum, it often gravitates back toward the lower end of the value area—most commonly returning to the Point of Control (POC), or the most heavily traded price zone, also referred to as “Fair Value.” In essence, price tends to oscillate between high and low value areas, frequently retesting fair value as a springboard for potential breakouts. Currently, we appear to be experiencing what’s known as a failed auction at the lower end of the range—where price attempted to break down, failed, and has since reclaimed the value area, potentially finding support near the range lows. If buyers step in here, the logical target would be the opposite end of the range high. Confluence and Outlook What’s particularly compelling is the confluence between the Elliott Wave count and the failed auction setup. Both suggest that Bitcoin is at a pivotal decision point. A successful defense of this value area could lead to a significant move higher, while a decisive breakdown would confirm the completion of a distribution phase and likely signal the start of a more prolonged bear market. I’m particularly interested in how Bitcoin reacts at this key zone, as sentiment is currently at extremely low levels and several technical indicators are pointing toward the potential beginning of a larger upward move. Entry Targets: $103,400 Stoploss: $99,500 (Daily Close) Target: $120k + Only time will tell.