Technical analysis by EmmaChartist about Symbol BTC: Sell recommendation (10/18/2025)

Hello everyone, Bitcoin is currently trading around 107,381 USD, recovering slightly after a steep drop from the 109,000–110,000 USD zone. Although a short-term rebound signal appears, the overall technical structure still indicates that the downward momentum holds sway. On the 4-hour chart, the series of candles maintains a Lower High – Lower Low pattern, clearly reflecting sustained selling dominance. During recent declines, red FVGs (Fair Value Gaps) repeatedly formed over 109,000 → 112,000 USD, constituting areas of unfilled liquidity gaps — these become strong resistance zones when price attempts to recover. Bitcoin is now approaching the nearest FVG around 107,500–108,000 USD, where renewed selling pressure may emerge. According to Ichimoku, the Kumo cloud lies above price and is quite thick, covering the region 109,000–113,000 USD, signaling a robust dynamic resistance zone. Price remains beneath the cloud, while the Chikou Span (lagging line) hasn’t crossed above price — confirming that the downtrend still dominates. Moreover, a Kumo Twist (cloud transition) has not formed, indicating no clear reversal signal has emerged. Concerning volume, the downtrend phases recorded high volume, whereas the current rebound accompanies weak volume, suggesting this is merely a relief bounce within the main downtrend. Market sentiment is cautious, as institutional capital stays sidelined awaiting clearer signals from the Fed and the direction of global interest rates. In the macro context, expectations for a 25 basis point Fed cut in Q4 persist, but the lack of action so far has delayed capital reflow into risk assets. U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated above 4 %, continuing to exert pressure on Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs have recorded slight net outflows this week, reflecting a cautious stance. U.S.–China trade tensions and geopolitical volatility similarly drive investors toward gold or USD as safe havens. In the short term, Bitcoin is likely to execute a technical retracement toward 107,500–108,000 USD to fill the nearest FVG. Upon reaching that zone, a rejection and reversal down toward 105,000 USD is plausible; indeed, a breach of 104,500 USD could occur to test the 102,000–103,000 USD region — this is a preferred scenario. This area also holds dense liquidity and trading volume concentrated since late September. The technical structure would only change if price closes a 4-hour candle above 109,500 USD, at which point the market might form a Higher Low and open the path for a meaningful recovery. Do you think this rebound has enough strength to break through 108,000, or is it just a pause before further decline?