Technical analysis by MAAwan about Symbol BTC on 10/17/2025

Macro Overview On the 3-month chart, Bitcoin continues to respect its long-term cyclical structure. A repeating pattern has emerged across prior macro expansions: after each single red (corrective) quarterly candle, BTC tends to print two consecutive strong bullish quarters, resuming the broader uptrend. This behavior has been consistent across the previous cycles — specifically around 2020, 2021, and 2023 — each time leading into a continuation of the bull phase. Pattern Structure Historical Context: Every major macro advance saw a single quarterly correction that reset overheated conditions, followed by renewed strength. Repetition Zone: We are once again witnessing one red quarterly candle after a series of strong bullish closes — historically a precursor to continuation. RSI Observation: The RSI on the 3M timeframe remains elevated but not divergent. The oscillator’s structure suggests momentum cooling within a bullish regime rather than a full trend reversal. Technical Implications The current red candle likely represents a mid-cycle correction, not a structural breakdown. Volume profile supports this narrative — a decrease in buying volume without aggressive distribution. If BTC maintains its higher lows on the 3M structure, the setup favors a continuation leg targeting new cycle highs into the next two to three quarters. Scenario Outlook Base Case (Bullish Continuation): 1 red quarterly candle completes the corrective phase. Two subsequent bullish candles emerge, aligning with the recurring “1 Red, 2 Bullish” pattern. Price expansion potential toward prior cycle extensions (FIB 1.618–2.0 range). Alternative Case (Bearish Extension): Failure to reclaim the prior quarterly open could extend the correction for one additional quarter before resumption. Structural invalidation only occurs with a quarterly close below the previous swing low. Macro Conclusion The current price behavior aligns with Bitcoin’s historical rhythm of expansion and reaccumulation. Unless the 3M candle closes decisively below key support, this setup favors macro consolidation before another impulsive leg higher. RSI structure, volume delta, and cyclical consistency collectively point toward bullish continuation over the next two quarters, following the completion of this corrective phase. Bias: Moderately Bullish (Macro Continuation Expected) Time Horizon: 6–12 Months Invalidation: Quarterly close below prior macro swing low