Technical analysis by TopgOptions about Symbol BTC: Sell recommendation (10/14/2025)

If you haven`t bought BTC before the rally: The cryptocurrency market is still reeling from the brutal sell-off on Friday, October 10, 2025, triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports. Bitcoin plummeted below $105,000, Ethereum dropped over 16% to under $3,700, and the broader market saw liquidations exceeding $19 billion—the largest single-day wipeout in crypto history, nine times bigger than February 2025's crash. While Monday and Tuesday brought some recovery, with Bitcoin climbing back above $115,000 and the total market cap topping $4 trillion, underlying issues like inflated trading volumes, massive altcoin losses, and a prominent whale re-entering a short position suggest this might just be a dead-cat bounce. This article explores why a second leg down could be imminent, incorporating technical analysis for TradingView users eyeing volatility plays. The Friday Flash Crash: A Perfect Storm Amplified by Fake Volumes The October 10 crash unfolded rapidly, with Bitcoin shedding nearly 10% in hours and over $200 billion erased from the market cap. But what made the drop so severe, especially for altcoins? A key culprit: fake trading volumes driven by wash trading. Wash trading, where traders buy and sell the same asset to themselves to inflate volumes, creates the illusion of liquidity and interest without real economic activity. Estimates suggest that up to 87-88% of crypto volumes are fake, often used in pump-and-dump schemes or to lure retail investors. In thin markets like crypto, these artificial volumes mask true liquidity. When real selling pressure hit—amplified by leveraged positions and the tariff news—exchanges like Binance saw cascading liquidations due to flawed margin systems. This "flash crash" wiped out $600–900 million in longs alone, but the fake volumes meant the market couldn't absorb the shock, leading to exaggerated drops. Analysts note that such illusions persist in 2025, with AI tools now exposing them, but regulators lag behind. If volumes remain overstated, any renewed catalyst could trigger another liquidity vacuum, setting up a second leg down. Altcoin Bloodbath: 50–90% Drops Expose Vulnerabilities While Bitcoin and Ethereum recovered somewhat, altcoins bore the brunt of the carnage. An index tracking altcoins (excluding BTC, ETH, and stablecoins) cratered about 33% in just 25 minutes, with some tokens plunging 50–90%. Tokens like Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin lost 20–60%, but lesser-known altcoins saw even steeper declines, highlighting the sector's over-leveraged and illiquid nature. This disproportionate pain stems from altcoins' reliance on hype and speculative inflows, often propped up by those same fake volumes. In a risk-off environment, capital flees to safer assets like Bitcoin, whose dominance spiked during the crash. Altseason indicators are now cooling (76–78 previously). Bitcoin dominance dropped below 59% post-crash. If earnings season in traditional markets reveals economic weakness, spilling over to crypto, altcoins could lead the next sell-off wave, potentially dropping another 20–50% if support levels break. The Whale Factor: $192M Profit, Then Re-Entry Signals Bearish Conviction Adding fuel to the fire is a mysterious crypto whale who timed the crash impeccably. Just 30 minutes before Trump's tariff announcement, this entity opened a massive short position on Bitcoin, pocketing $192 million in profits as the market tanked. Speculation abounds: Was it insider knowledge, or just savvy trading? Either way, the whale didn't stop there—they've re-entered with another short, increasing their position to $340 million, and even opened a fresh $163 million bearish bet. Other whales have followed suit, including: A Satoshi-era entity shorting $1.1 billion before the news An OG whale opening a $392 million short These moves suggest high conviction in further declines, possibly tied to ongoing trade tensions or macroeconomic risks. In a market where whales can move prices, this re-entry could catalyze the second leg, especially if it triggers more liquidations. My price target for Bitcoin is $95K