Technical analysis by jonnieking about Symbol BTC: Buy recommendation (6 hour ago)

Today’s PA confirmed an interesting theory I’ve had where liquidity reaches risk assets faster as the business cycle picks up. I wrote about this in depth in my “Twin Peaks” cycle top thesis (pinned tweet). We were charting Total Global Liquidity with a 12-week lead against BTC before the rate cut in September, and then we got a 1-point higher reading in the ISM PMI, which I believe accelerated the liquidity cycle by a couple weeks. I think for every 25 bps rate cut, we will see TGL accelerate by 2-weeks. The next rate cut is expected at the October 29th FOMC. It will be interesting to track liquidity flows and the ISM PMI after the next rate cut to see how they adapt to markets. The GOLD / BTC chart confirms this acceleration, as GOLD typically has a near 1:1 ratio with TGL. I was one of the first analysts to point out this signal earlier in year before all your favorite large accounts ran with it (go figure). This acceleration in TGL would mark our local bottom near perfectly. If this theory is correct and liquidity does accelerate by another 2 weeks, based on TGL, we would have the cycle’s first top somewhere around November 11th. Currently it’s the 25th with a 10-week lead. That would coincide with my OG ₿itcoin cycle analysis that I put out over 1.5 years ago, where I said the cycle top would be between OCTOBER 6th, which was already a local top, and NOVEMBER 9th. However, there is a discrepancy with the GOLD / BTC chart. The local top would be around December 3rd. It’s currently the 17th with a 10-week lead. I think GOLD has overshot TGL simply based on bull market mechanics creating a parabola. To sum it up, stay vigilant over these next few months, and take nothing for granted. The first peak will for sure come sooner than you think. Going to be fascinating to follow these liquidity flows, at the very least.