Technical analysis by fibcos about Symbol SPYX: Buy recommendation (10/9/2025)

S&P 500 - GRAND MARKET OUTLOOK BY FIBCOS This analysis integrates multiple layers of market interpretation, combining Elliott Wave Theory across Supercycle , Macro , Micro , and Sub-Micro degrees with Smart Money Concepts (SMC) , price action behavior, and Fibonacci retracements/extensions to project the S&P 500 ’s long-term trajectory. It captures how institutional capital rotates through accumulation and distribution phases, aligned with macroeconomic cycles, policy shifts, and investor sentiment. Each wave is grounded in historical and forward-looking fundamental events—from post-war booms to financial crises to the current AI-driven tech surge. The use of Fibonacci ratios (1.618, 3.618, 5.618) provides mathematical confluence for wave targets, while price structure confirms the ongoing impulsive behavior. Altogether, it creates a cohesive, multi-dimensional forecast expected to culminate in a Supercycle Wave (III) top around Q1 2029 , with an S&P 500 target between 20,000(20K). 🌀 Supercycle Wave (III) — The Final Ascent (1942–2029*) 🌍 SUPERCYCLE STRUCTURE: The Multi-Generational Bull We are inside Supercycle Wave (III) which began in 1942 and is unfolding in 5 Macro Impulse Waves . Each of these macro waves has further Micro and Sub-Micro waves. As of 2025, we're in the final stretch of this grand cycle, specifically: 👉 Sub-Micro Wave ③ of Micro Wave ⑤ of Macro Wave ⑤ of Supercycle Wave (III) Final top expected in Q1 2029 , around the 20,000 (20K) zone 📍 🧭 MACRO WAVE TIMELINE (Supercycle III) 🔹 Macro Wave ① (1942–1968): 🌟 Post-War Industrial Renaissance Fundamentals: WWII victory → economic dominance Baby boom, suburbanization, auto and housing expansion Bretton Woods system established USD supremacy 💵 Smart Money Insight: Institutional capital rotated from war manufacturing into consumer goods, construction, and tech foundations Price Action: Strong impulsive move with clean higher highs/lows Fibonacci Insight: Laid the base for 1.618 extension targets Ends in 1968 with rising inflation and Vietnam drag 🔹 Macro Wave ② (1968–1974): 🌪️ Stagflation Storm Fundamentals: Vietnam War expenditures Gold standard broken (1971 Nixon shock) Oil embargo, inflation > growth Price Action: Deep correction, volatile chop, broad distribution SMC Insight: Institutions exited cyclicals, quietly accumulated future outperformers (tech, defense) Fibonacci: 0.236% retracement of Super Cycle Wave ii 🔹 Macro Wave ③ (1974–2000): 🚀 Tech & Financialization Explosion Fundamentals: Reaganomics & deregulation PC revolution, Internet birth, globalization 🌐 Explosion in derivatives, S&P futures, ETFs SMC: Institutions accumulated during 70s lows, fueled tech IPO boom (Apple, Microsoft) Price Action: Violent rallies with accelerating slope — classic 3rd wave behavior Fibonacci: Extended well beyond 4.618% of Macro ① & ② — true power wave 🔹 Macro Wave ④ (2000–2009): 🌊 Dot-Com + Financial Crisis Correction Fundamentals: Dot-Com bust ➜ $5T in lost value 9/11 shocks & Iraq war GFC: Housing bubble → global banking collapse Price Action: Double top structure (2000 & 2007), multi-leg correction SMC Insight: Smart money cashed out in 2000 and 2007; bought again heavily in March 2009 Structure: WXY complex correction, bottoming with V-shape GFC recovery Fibonacci: 0.236% retracement of Macro ② 🔶 MACRO WAVE ⑤ (2009–2029): 🔥 The Final Ascent – AI, Liquidity & Euphoria This is the final macro wave of Supercycle (III), and it subdivides into 5 Micro Impulse Waves. We are now in Micro Wave ⑤ , which itself contains Sub-Micro Waves 1–5. 🔷 Micro Wave ① (2009–Apr 2010): 🪙 The Bounce from Oblivion Fundamentals: Fed QE1 💉, bailouts (TARP), 0% rates Fear of deflation flipped to hunt for yield Price Action: Clean V-bottom, shallow pullbacks SMC: Institutions were loading REITs, tech, and banks post-GFC carnage 🔷 Micro Wave ② (Apr 2010–Jun 2010): 🩻 Flash Crash Flush Fundamentals: Euro debt scare, Greece bailout, volatility spike Price Action: Sharp correction, liquidity vacuum Fibonacci: Textbook 0.236% retracement SMC: Stop hunt phase — liquidity grab before next leg 🔷 Micro Wave ③ (Jun 2010–2018): 🚀 Passive Investing Boom Fundamentals: QE2, QE3 → massive central bank asset inflation Apple, Amazon, Google explode in earnings and valuation ETF revolution = automated capital flows Price Action: Relentless trend with low volatility Fibonacci: 2.618+ extension of Wave ① SMC: Institutions began multi-year hold strategies (FANGM), volatility sellers emerged 🔷 Micro Wave ④ (2018–2020): ⚠️ Volatility & COVID Shock Fundamentals: Rate hikes (2018), trade war (US-China) COVID black swan — global shutdown, crude oil collapse (went negative!) Price Action: Massive drop with record velocity (VIX > 80) SMC: Panic selling, smart money accumulation March 2020 🔵 MICRO WAVE ⑤ (2020–2029): 📈 The Final Climb Begins This is where we are now. This Micro Wave ⑤ is subdividing into: 🟢 Sub-Micro Wave ① (Mar 2020 – Nov 2021): 💹 Stimulus Mania Fundamentals: Unlimited QE, COVID relief checks Crypto/NFT mania, meme stocks (GME/AMC) Retail explosion via Robinhood & Reddit Price Action: Parabolic rally, overbought signals SMC: Institutions faded retail euphoria mid-2021 🟡 Sub-Micro Wave ② (Nov 2021 – Oct 2022): 🔻 Inflation Reckoning Fundamentals: CPI > 9%, Fed hikes aggressively Yield curve inversion, tech meltdown Price Action: 0.236% retracement SMC: Smart money rotated into energy, defense, and value stocks during panic Sentiment : Retail fled, fear extreme — perfect accumulation zone 🔴 Sub-Micro Wave ③ (Oct 2022 – Est. 2027): ⚡ AI Supercycle Ignites CURRENT WAVE IN PROGRESS Fundamentals: AI revolution (ChatGPT, LLMs, Robotics, Automation) Cloud, semiconductors, defense, biotech surge Fiscal policy dominance, wars & tech race 🧠 Price Action: Clean impulse structure Shallow pullbacks, breakout-retest continuation SMC: Institutions aggressively long AI/Defense (Nvidia, Palantir, defense contractors) Liquidity injections in dips, stealth breakouts Fibonacci Target: 3.618 extension ~11,200 Expected to peak in 2026 🟠 Sub-Micro Wave ④ (Est. 2027-2028): 🧯 Last Shakeout Before the Climax Expect: Profit-taking, geopolitical panic, credit stress Retest of broken trendline or previous resistance zone Fibonacci : Retrace 0.236–0.382 of Wave ③ SMC: Final accumulation before blow-off top 🔵 Sub-Micro Wave ⑤ (Est. 2028–Q1 2029): 🚨 Blow-Off Top: 20,000 Target Fundamentals: Peak optimism: “AI replaces everything”, euphoria Retail mania, influencer ETFs Fed/central banks possibly easing again to avoid slowdown Price Action: Parabolic, low pullbacks, extreme momentum, RSI divergence, volume climax SMC: Massive institutional distribution — quiet selling into strength Target: ~20,000 (5.618 of Wave ①), final top of Supercycle (III) 🛑 What Comes After? SUPERCYCLE WAVE (IV): 🔻 Decade-Long Reset (2029–2040?) Major correction, potentially multi-decade sideways or secular bear Catalyst? AI bust, geopolitical war, credit collapse "Stay focused on structure, not emotions." - FIBCOS 📘 Disclaimer: This is a structural, educational market outlook. Not financial advice. Please do your own due diligence and risk management. #FIBCOS #ElliottWave #SmartMoneyConcept #MarketAnalysis #Gold #XAUUSD #ElliottWave #WaveTheory #SuperCycle #MacroTrend #SmartMoney #Fibonacci #PriceAction #Commodities #TechnicalAnalysis #LongTermOutlookMinor adjustments are part of the process—what matters is staying focused on the bigger picture. Keep your eyes on the vision and trust the process!