Technical analysis by WaveFibs about Symbol XRP: Buy recommendation (10/5/2025)

XRP — Breakout Playbook (Weekly Context + 2-Day Execution, With Divergences & Wave Map) 1) Market position (where price sits now) Price is compressing beneath a descending trendline and just under a horizontal range ceiling after a strong upside impulse. The prior pullback held inside the mapped support box (approx. 2.85–2.64 on the chart), keeping the higher-timeframe up-leg viable. 2) Momentum state & divergences Now (2-Day): Regular bullish divergence printed into the box: price made an equal/lower low while the MACD histogram made a higher low. This signals seller fatigue into support and raises the odds that a valid break can sustain if participation appears. Anticipated (near resistance): Regular bearish divergence risk is elevated into 4.46–4.60 and again near 5.05. Expect momentum to lag if the move matures; divergence there often precedes a reaction. On the throwback: a successful retest frequently forms hidden bullish divergence (price makes a higher low while momentum makes a lower low). That pattern supports the “acceleration” phase. 3) Wave roadmap (now → next) Primary count on the breakout path The current advance is mapped as micro A–B–C, with C ≈ A (1:1) clustering in the 4.46–4.60 band; a higher-hierarchy objective resides around 5.05. After the first clean break, the standard path is: Wave 1 up through the ceiling → Wave 2 throwback to retest the broken trendline/ceiling → Wave 3 extension targeting 4.46–4.60, with potential continuation toward 5.05 if momentum holds. What qualifies the Wave-2 retest Pullback respects the former cap (trendline/ceiling acts as support). The reaction back up shows volume expansion and improving momentum. The Wave-2 low stays above the Wave-1 origin (structure intact). 4) Breakout qualification (must see both) Close through the cap and range high on the 2-Day. Participation: volume clearly above recent average on the break. → After that, a weekly close that holds above the level promotes the move from tactical to structural. 5) Path after confirmation (scenarios) Base scenario — continuation with throwback Break → throwback to the breakout line (common) → hold → acceleration. Wave-3 behavior: broad bars, rising participation, momentum improving. Targets by confluence on the chart: 4.46–4.60 (equality/congestion band) = first reaction zone. ~5.05 = higher decision area; expect a larger battle there. Alternate bullish — deeper retest first If the breakout wicks and fails to stick on the first attempt, a deeper retest into the upper half of the support box can still resolve higher, provided weekly structure remains intact and momentum rebuilds. Bearish/failed break Pop above resistance without volume, followed by a close back inside the range = false breakout risk; immediate de-risk and await a fresh setup. A new closing low below ~2.64 (box floor) breaks the structure of the current weekly idea. 6) Risk, invalidation, and management Tactical invalidation (post-break): a 2-Day close back under the reclaimed level on rising volume. Structural invalidation: weekly close back inside the prior range after confirmation, or loss of the most recent weekly higher low. Stop logic: trail beneath successive 2-Day swing lows during the advance; after weekly confirmation, management can widen to weekly swings to respect higher-TF trend. Profit handling: expect churn and potential bearish divergence at 4.46–4.60; partials are reasonable there. If momentum/volume remain constructive, leave a runner toward ~5.05. 7) Execution checklist (pin next to the chart) 2-Day close above the descending cap and the horizontal ceiling ✅ Volume expansion on the breakout bar(s) ✅ Weekly close holds above the break ✅ Throwback: test of former cap; holds as support ✅ Wave-3 tells after the retest: broader candles, improving momentum, higher participation ✅ Zones to manage: 4.46–4.60 (reaction/divergence risk), then ~5.05 (bigger decision). Failure tells: quick close back in range, retest breaks down, or fresh weekly lower low → stand down.