Technical analysis by Strateg_ about Symbol ETH on 10/4/2025

September ended, a month of seasonal sales and 4 weeks of sluggish market decline, which I predicted in the last review. October and December are the months of seasonal growth in the 4th quarter, but the bears continue to hold the market. The quarter opened neutrally on the ETH. An opening above 4100 provides an opportunity for retests of 4750-5000, however, an opening below 4250 is a slightly stronger signal for a stable consolidation below 4k and an attempt to retest 3500. The current market growth is still only a retest of the 4500-4750 range before the likely continuation of sales. It will be possible to talk about the continuation of medium-term growth only with a repeated breakdown of 4750, in which case active purchases of altcoins will begin. With the current market, the probability of a further flat and a slow fall for most coins prevails. Bitcoin opened the quarter below 115k, which further increases the likelihood of a market drop with sales up to a 90-100 k retest. The oil price also continues to fall, which negatively affects the markets. If there is a rebound in brent to $67.5-$69 in the new week, then the probability of a breakdown of $ 4750 in ether will begin to prevail. If brent falls below 64, there will be a chance of a hike to 3900 on the ETH by the end of next week. Today, the opening level of the new week on the ETH is of great importance. When opening above 4500, the probability of a breakdown of 4750 will increase significantly and we will not see sales below 4250-350. When opening below 4500, a breakdown of 4750 will be possible only against the background of weighty arguments, extremely negative statistics on the United States or oil growth. With the current negative market and the prevailing probability of further altcoin decline, I am still cautiously considering coins for operation. The only oversold group with the probability of growth from its current position is still the fantokens. Among them, I am considering atm city juv acm for work. These tokens do not have binance futures, which reduces the opportunities for large speculators to sell and insures against a pattern similar to alpine and asr. These tokens also have extremely high undeveloped targets on large timeframes up to 5-7 x. ATM opened the quarter above 1.5, which is a very positive signal. After drawing the shadow on a new monthly candle with a retest of 1.35, there is a high probability of a bullish reversal of the current monthly candle with a stable approach to the 2.1-2.5 test at least. In the event of a breakdown of 2.5, further growth towards 5-7.5 will be very active. With a negative market and ether falling to 3500, there is a possibility of a delay and flat ATM with a rebound from 2.1 and growth from the second half of the quarter. According to CITY, there is also a good quarter opening above 1.0, which can lead to stable growth on the 2.1-2.5 test this month with a further trend. For ACM and JUV, there is also a good opening of the quarter above the supports, but the candlestick pattern on large timeframes is more negative, and therefore growth may be more sluggish after the breakouts of ATM and CITY. Among other altcoins, so far I am considering only chess pivx and fio, which can give an increase of up to 50-70% from current levels against the background of the lack of assignment of the monitoring tag in the first week of the new month. However, the opening of the quarter for them is quite negative, which is likely to lead to new price drawdowns, especially in the event of a drop in ether. In work, it is worth keeping a moderate position with the expectation of possible drawdowns to 0.100-115 for pivx, 0.05 for chess and 0.0125-150 for fio. Topping up can be confidently done from these levels, a hike below is possible only if the monitoring tag is assigned in the following months, or there is a strong drop in ether up to 2500. I will consider other coins to work only after the breakdown of 4750 on ether.Today, due to the lack of tag assignment, monitoring gave a pivx reaction with a test of the target range of 0.20-25, however, the opening of the quarter is negative for it, as well as for fio, as I wrote in the last review, which will lead to a significant pullback and a likely retest of loyalties. So far, chess looks more promising with a likely 0.1 retest, at least due to a good opening of the quarter. Adx and koma, which I recommended earlier, also showed good dynamics with the take test. Both left a signal for an attempt to move, but after the current impulse, it may take a considerable amount of time to accumulate. According to adx, the opening of the quarter is also higher than support, which increases the likelihood of new growth waves in the future. Ether approached the intermediate support near the range of 4000-4250. Further, there is a high probability of waves of purchases in an attempt to keep the monthly candle from turning into a bearish one, against the background of the breakdown of 4750 at the beginning of the week, which is a strong signal for the resumption of the bullish trend by the end of the year. In an optimistic scenario, there may be no sales below 4,100 this month. Attempts to grow ether will give rise to breakouts for individual altcoins. With the current market drawdown, fresh projects have shown themselves to be more confident. In this regard, in the medium term, I am taking the most oversold listed coins in the last two years, MITO BMT HOOK VIC. Among the older coins, chess adx with good quarter opening levels and atm acm city juv fantokens are still the most interesting due to strong oversold and speculative interest. Growth waves of up to 40-50% can also result from the current levels of fio cos and data.