Technical analysis by imaclone about Symbol BTC on 9/30/2025

🌍 Big Picture and Context First, Always: Right now, everything’s about macro winds and liquidity. •BTC ~ $116,100, ETH ~ $4,668, SOL ~ $247.6 — majors still holding high ground. •DXY ~97–98 (weak dollar = good for alts), USD/JPY ~147.6 (still high). •SPY pushing highs, 10Y UST ~4.0%, inflation data’s cooling but sticky. •CPI last read: +0.4% m/m, +2.9% y/y. Core +3.1%. PPI softening slightly. •Fear & Greed Index = Neutral, TVL stable at ~$163B. Crypto funding mostly positive. •The wind’s not blowing hard, but it’s blowing favorably — if you’re positioned right. 🎯 Focus Token: $S (Sonic) | Price: ~$0.316 We’re still range-bound. But range ≠ random. Key support: $0.300–0.305, $0.285, $0.270 Key resistance: $0.335–0.350, $0.375–0.385, $0.400–0.410, $0.460 🧭 2H Strategy: Micro-Trigger Zone •Bullish Setup: 2H close > $0.335 with RSI > 50 → go long. → TP1 $0.350, TP2 $0.375, TP3 $0.400 → SL $0.324 •Bearish Setup: 2H close < $0.300 (esp. if DXY spikes or SPY turns red). → TP1 $0.285, TP2 $0.270, TP3 $0.255 → SL $0.306 🧱 4H Strategy: Structure Check •4H 200EMA is the ceiling: $0.34–0.35 area is the battleground. •Long on Retest: Break above $0.335–0.340, retest holds → → TP1 $0.350, TP2 $0.375, TP3 $0.400 → SL $0.329 •Fade the Hype: Wick into $0.350, RSI > 65, MACD stalls → → TP1 $0.335, TP2 $0.322, TP3 $0.305 → SL $0.358 🕰 1D Strategy: Swing Map •Range Structure: July-present = sideways channel $0.30–0.35 Major supply cap = $0.40–0.46 •Swing Long (Base): Enter $0.300–0.305 on bullish 1D candle or RSI divergence → TP1 $0.335, TP2 $0.350, TP3 $0.375 → SL $0.292 •Breakout Swing: Daily close above $0.375 + hold → TP1 $0.400, TP2 $0.430, TP3 $0.460 → SL $0.362 •Bear Flip: Daily close below $0.300 = exit longs or consider shorting → TP1 $0.285, TP2 $0.270, TP3 $0.250 → SL $0.307 📆 1W Strategy: Positioning Lens •Weekly still under major supply $0.40–0.46 •A weekly close above $0.46? You unlock $0.50–0.55 •Accumulation Bias: If majors stay strong (BTC/ETH/SOL) & DXY stays soft → accumulate $0.30–0.32 with wide stops. •Wait + Watch: If yields or DXY jump → sideline until $0.285–0.270 ⚖️ Risk Rules (Always On) •Risk 0.5–1.5% per trade and always remember to size appropriately •After TP1, move stop to break-even •Trim risk on macro volatility (CPI surprises, DXY spikes, yields above 4.2%) 🧠 TL;DR: My Personal Mental Model Soft dollar. Stable rates. Neutral sentiment. Big caps not breaking. → $S is in a cautious bullish pocket if it clears $0.335 → But if it loses $0.300, and the macro turns, don’t even hesitate to flip bearish and look toward $0.285 / $0.270 Notes: You don’t chase breakouts. You prepare for them. You don’t panic on drops. You plan for them. You trade when the market gives you the nod, not when your emotions do. Remember this and always, always, DYOFR. Sources: CoinGecko, CoinMarketCap, Yahoo Finance, BLS.gov, Alternative.me, DeFiLlama, CoinGlass. All trades mapped with structure, not hope.